S C E N A R I O / R E P O R T
SECONDSKIN
04
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06
Introduction
Matrix
Scenario I
12
14
16
Scenario II
Conclusion
Self-Evaluation Form
Introduction In order to adapt better in the world we are living in, scenario reports were created to describe and imagine the world we will live in the future. Indeed, scenarios are past and present events analysed to determine forecast of plausible and realistic future developments. Both quantitative and qualitative aspects are covered through 6 areas : economic, social, technology, environmental, demographic and politic. Because a brand has a past, a present and a future and because it is a living object that evolves and interacts with its environment, brands must be able to flourish in a changing world while preserving whats makes their DNA (its values, promises and benefits). The objective is to be able to anticipate possible breaks in the environment of the brand and to measure their effects to tackle them and in this case for SecondSkin. Global warming has been an increasely important topic. Indeed, climate change is a real problem for the economic and social developments. Its changes have an important implications for our eco-systems. However, it is not only a problem for ecology, or the protection of biodiversity and environment : climate change also affects human society. The current world population is about 7.2 billion. Is expected to increase by nearly one billion people over the next 12 years to reach 8.1 billion in 2025 and 9.6 billion in 2050 [United Nation, 2016}. Global overpopulation is a risk for humanity and it is a very important issue to take into account for the next years.
How the society will react to the global warming ? How the world will cope with another 2 billion people ?
POSITIONING GRAPH
WILL ADAPT
1
BUSINESS AS USUAL
2
Unlimited World
WILL FAIL
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS
BAU
New Horizons
Scenario 1 NEW HORIZONS
It is a year 2035 on the planet earth. The world is still fragile of the economic and political situation. However, countries around the world are already beginning their energy transition and theyr are trying through rules, laws and measures, to slow down the effects of global warming. Despite a constant growth of the population, water and food security are properly managed by the states. However, with the rise of social media, technology, innovations and robotisations, the citizens ended up developing an individualistic mindset.
Twenty seven years after the financial crisis of 2008, the world is still fragile from the big economic tumult. By 2035, non of the following countries - either the United States, neither China or any of the major emerging countries as Brazil, Russia or India - exercise an hegemonic influence over the rest of the world. On the contrary, the rise of individuals and the division of power between states with as well as the non-governmental players, economic and social networks, have a huge impact across the world ending definitely the domination of Western countries . This huge shift rebalanced the importance of Asia in the world economy and shifted the economy into the eastern countries, opening a new era of democratisation both all around the planet and within states.(1) Terrorism has been integrated in people’s lives and they are always prepared for a possible attack. Indeed, various governments have not succeeded in neutralising terrorist groups which have, in fact, multiplied due to the rise of Western countries such as Syria, Irak or Libya. Indeed, people are not immune to daily attacks and are still in shock by the neutron weapon attack of May 12, 2034, killing more than 445 people in a popular district of Milan in Italy. Terrorism is still an unsolved problem and the number of victims and damage due to terrorism is still growing. Acts of extreme violence in some Islamist states are still organised, in order to optimise the impact on media. After several years under the pressure of increased vulnerability on energy resources, that is to say, countries depend on each other. That is why the members of the EU decided to begin their own energy transition. Indeed, under the influence of the 2019 energy crisis that opposed Ukraine and Russia in a conflict at an international level (2) ,EU realised that the demand for energy has increased exponentially as a result of the increasing dynamics of
urbanism, motorisation and industrialisation thanks to the scientific and technological advances. In 2023, the EU is therefore deciding to raise the prices of its polluting energy sources, which in turn promotes a significant economic growth. Households had to turn to renewable and cleaner energy. Through the rise of prices investments in the field of research, development and innovation emerged. For example, in France, research and development accounts for 8,3% of the GDP (3). Finally, only Iceland, Ethiopia, Norway, Costa Rica, Brazil and Uruguay have reached their energy dependency by starting their transition before the rest of the countries (4). These geopolitical developments are accompanied by an in-depth transformation of companies. Contrary to preconceived ideas, the spectacular development of social media consequently ended in individualism and small communities. 2035 is therefore marked by a return of groups, sometimes microscopic, with a strong culture and sometimes subversive. More than ever, governments are trying to tackle this problem. They put in place long-term political actions not guided by the private interest of lobbyists, but more by the common good. Over 8,5 people live on earth (5). The amount of people aged over 60 year-olds represents 22% of the world, twice as much as in 2015 (6). The constant growth of the population has been controlled through time, but remains unstable at some point. Birth rate stabilised over the period of 2025-2030. Thanks to changes taken in certain countries by 2030, maternal health will improve and reduce child mortality. For example the NGO Maternity Worldwide financed by developed countries such as the US, the EU or Russia, operates in poor countries like Africa by distributing free necessity health care and free vaccines to immunise young mothers and children against decease (7).
Moreover, other bigger interventions are still impossible because they still remain very expensive and lack support from countries and governments. However, small countries such as Hungary decided to support pregnant women by introducing a law called “Orban Law”, named after the prime minister Viktor Orban, who first introduced this idea in 2016. This law allows cutting student loans owed by women with two or more children. Also nurseries are renovated and build in order to boost the country’s birth rate (8).
60% of the world’s population lives in urban areas which creates social misery and more slums. Migration flows are increasing more and more due to the rise of new technology. Globalisation leads to a high level of international integration. Wars between states became impossible. On the other hand, it creates “inter-regional conflicts” where communities of interest confront each other across national borders as the conflict between Jews and Christians in Bristol, England in May 2033.
The world is well adapt to the another 2 billion people on the planet. Indeed, thanks to many laws and rules set up for ecology. Whether in terms of food and water security, there are still some difficulties in some countries. However, as the population grew, so did food production. The western countries had to halved their meat consumption. Since the origin of the problem of over-consumption of meat is not so much demography or the increasing of purchasing power, the way livestock was reared had to change. The phytosanitary products used to produce fodder for livestock have been removed from the market and their use has become totally illegal (9). This has led farmers to change their farming methods and so, reduced meet production. The population has thus become accustomed to eating less meat. Access to drinking water was a major problem and thanks to technology advances, many poor countries were able to develop. For example, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has developed the Omniprocessor. This machine is capable of transforming human excreta into water. Once extracted from the sewers, they are burned in order to dry out. The generated vapors are recovered to make water, which is then cleaned and filtered to become clean for consumption. Combustion also generates energy that can be converted into electricity for power supply and redistribution in cities (10).
Government are actively involved in reducing the effects of global warming since many years and they put in place many laws and restrictions. Indeed, billions of people have reduced their use of carbon and transitioned into a sustainable lifestyle and mindset. In order to reduce the impact of global warming on the planet, countries have had to built programs based on three pillars: reducing CO2 emissions, reducing or even halting deforestation, and finally, knowing that global warming remains inevitable, governments have prepared to prevent the population from natural impacts and disasters. Firstly, to reduce their emissions, the government had to reduce the amount of heat-trapping emissions by expanding the use of renewable energy. The amount of renewable energy now represents 90% on the planet and they are mostly using wind energy, solar energy, hydraulic energy, biomass and geothermal energy (11). A new plan had been introducing in the US in 2015 named the ‘Clean Power Plan’ (12). The aim of this plan is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by placing limits on the amount of carbon that pollutes : states have to meet a specific standard and they have to reduce emissions by various means. After the success of this plan, the conditions were extended to the COP member countries. Indeed, at the COP27 in Madrid, the members of this convention all voted for this regulation.
By 2035, the world’s regulations are firmly turned towards reducing deforestations, because in 2015, already represented 10% of the world’s heat-trapping emissions (13). For example, strong monitoring polities have been implemented all around the world thanks to a new monitoring system improved by innovations and the REDD+ (14) international initiative (Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation organised by UN) is giving a rewards for developing countries for reducing their deforestations rates .
Thanks to technological advances and a better quality of life, the world of work is however weakened. Indeed, machinery replaces the human labor force and there is more and more sector of labor are totally industrialised such as the medicine area, chemical industry or the automotive area. This shift has sole consequence is unemployment: the younger generation has no job and the unemployment rate is extremely high. As a result, the young population must stand out by increasing their professional qualification.
Finally, governments are aware that the consequences of global warming are inevitable : we can reduce them, but not stop them. Some initiatives from different countries such as Germany, France, Italy, the US or Brazil are taken in order to reduce the risks of flooding or wildfire. Some polities have been taken to discourage any development in flood areas ; the NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program) in the US is reducing pay for repetitive losses and increase rates in the event (15). For the extreme heat, in order to minimise the health impact, governments are communicating the danger more and more through social media (16). All of those polities, rules et measures helped reducing the progression of global warming. Because the planet is getting healthier, people then tends to live longer and the birth rate is getting higher as well.
The place of fashion in society has totally changed. Indeed, customers, because of the environmental shift, are really into sustainability and ecology. They have not remain loyal to the Fast Fashion industry. Large firms such as Zara or H&M doesn’t exist anymore and smaller brands had to reduce their collection to 4 per year. Consumer demand has fallen since the unemployment rate, incomes have also declined. They therefore have less to spend and prefer quality to quantity. To conclude, from this world, we can see that the future is far from balanced. Even if governments do their utmost to mitigate the effects of global warming, the world will always have internal and external divisions. Who knows what’s next ?
SOURCES (1) (2)
National Intelligence Council, 2012 Academie Geopolitique de Paris, 2016
(6)
World Healt Organisation, 2017
(11)
United Nation - IPCC report, 2014
(7)
Maternity Worldwide, 2015
(12)
UCSUSA, 2015
(3)
European Commission - R&D, 2015
(8)
The Washington Post, 2017
(13)
The Guardian, 2015
(4)
Le Journal International, 2015
(9)
The Guardian, 2016
(14)
EFI, 2012
(5)
United Nation, 2015
(10)
Huffington Post, 2015
(15) Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015
Scenario 2 UNLIMITED WORLD
It is the year 2035 on the planet earth. Technology has totally taken over control the society. People communicate, buy, live and think through these digital machines.. However, the environmental situation becomes more and more serious and a reversal seems impossible. Citizens feel alone and lost in this fragmented world.and the terrorist threat continues to attack the society.
- The world is very fragile from the fall of US power in the world and economy from the world is still, twenty seven years after the financial crisis of 2008, unbalanced from the big economic tumult. - Countries are withdrawn into themselves and opted for protectionism (border closure, import bans, an increase in customs duties and import taxes). - Domination of Asian countries which are found as the first economic power. Indeed, China, India, Japan and Indonesia are the four most powerful and rich countries of today. - Economic downturn: the end of the European Union in 2030. - The world’s economy is unbalanced due to the huge revolution of robotisation and machinery in society and in the world of work. - Unemployment rate is very high because machinery remplaces human work. - The population travels by public transportation because of the quick population growth and intense urbanisation. - The technology is very advanced. Thanks to innovations, the education, culture, purchases (clothing, food ‌) or banking are fully digital. - It is a new era of shopping : citizens can now experience new realities with virtual reality.. - Thanks to the importance of technology in the society, the population feel alone : an individualistic mentality has been developed in people mindset. - Over 8,5 billion people lives on earth. - Despite pollution and global warming, birth rate is increasingly evolving. Technology advances have led to better health. - Customers behaviour has shifted. People are more tempted to buy the latest innovations and trends regardless of its impact on the environment. - Citizens are able to spend more money on items and clothes. Brands have to renew their collections every week.
Conclusion To conclude, we believe that SecondSkin will survive in the Scenario 1 and may have difficulties to survive in the Scenario 2. Indeed, the Scenario 2 is quite pessimistic when it comes to the future and the importance this world gives to the environmental issues is contradictory to our values. Moreover, the Scenario 1 would be the best to develop SecondSkin because citizens’ mindset shifted drastically and the importance of the environment, nature and animals is very present in their life. The economic and politic situation of the two scenarios are really mperfect and unbalanced. Those two situation both really affect the society (mentally and economically). SecondSkin will then grow in order to make the life of pregnant women more joyful in the world were insecurities, problems and conficts will grow up. Futhermore, it will be necessary to change our tribe/ target group because the market is going to grow up and the millenials women would not be pregnant women anymore. We must therefore adapt our values, mission and vision to the zeitgest of the new generation. We will also have to develop the technologic side of SecondSkin. Indeed,in both scenarios, technologicas advances and innovations plays a predominant role.We should adapt SecondSkin by developping, for exemple, the virtual shopping reality, a true phygitale (digital + physic) experience ! Finally, through this report and after this conclusion, we now have almost the certainty that SecondSkin will evolve and follow in 2035 and beyond.
Source List - http://www.who.int/ageing/about/facts/fr/ - https://www.scienceshumaines.com/politique-mondiale-quels-changements-a-l-horizon-2030_fr_30433.html - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/hungary-reveals-new-ideas-to-increase-birth-numbers-by-2030/2017/05/25/9261a4e6-4142-11e7-b29f-f40ffced2ddb_ story.html?utm_term=.0db7cebc1805 - http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/trends/Population2030.pdf - https://www.maternityworldwide.org - http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/2015_MDG_Report/pdf/MDG%202015%20 rev%20%28July%201%29.pdf - http://www.lejournalinternational.info/six-pays-qui-cherchent-lindependance-energetique/ - http://www.afssi.fr/doc/rapport_2015_politique_recherche_inno_europe.pdf - http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2015/09/18/4-innovations-solidaires_n_8158114.html - http://www.academiedegeopolitiquedeparis.com/le-probleme-energetique-ukraine-russie/ - http://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/global-warming/reduce-emissions/what-is-the-cleanpower-plan#.WStP5hhh2Aw - https://www.ipcc.ch - http://www.efi.int/files/attachments/euflegt/flegt_redd__bn_2_french_web1.pdf - http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/stop-deforestation#.WStQMRhh2Ay - http://e-rse.net/rechauffement-climatique-impact-social-societe-conflit-15305/#gs. M6LENCs - http://www.improveeze.com/phygital-commerce - https://theindianeconomist.com/powerful-economies-2030/ - http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/trends/Population2030.pdf - https://organiccottonplus.com/pages/learning-center - http://www.livescience.com/41316-11-billion-people-earth.html - https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/feb/24/britain-ageing-population-lords-inquiry
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http://fulltimefiesta.com/page/6/ http://justyoumagazine.com/2015/08/03/tutto-cio-che-devi-sapere-sul-gelmanicure/ http://www.emelieotterbeck.com https://readcereal.com/kenya-hara/ http://www.aa13.fr/photographie/urban-nautilus-matthieu-venot-52876
AMFI 2017
Gauthier Anouchka
B1Ei