Leaving Has Consequences

Joseph Scotchie

jscotchie@antonmediagroup.com

The year 2022 was not a good one for New York State. For decades, losing residents has been a problem in the Empire State. Last year was no different.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), up to 300,000 people left New York state in 2022. The whys of people leaving continues to perplex local leaders. The old bugbears of real estate prices and where new jobs are now located are always mentioned, but there may be other factors.

All this is part of a nationwide trend, also in the works for several decades. In 2022, California, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, lost 350,000 residents, followed by Illinois (140,000), New Jersey (64,231), Massachusetts (57,292), and Pennsylvania (39,957).

The states that attracted the newest residents in 2022 were Florida (444,484) Texas (470,708), North Carolina (99,796), South Carolina (84,030), Tennessee (81,646), and Georgia (81,406).

Real estate prices, property taxes, jobs, traffic, crime, and the fiscal condition of Sun Belt states vs. those in the Northeast and the West Coast. What specifically are the differences?

Comparing Florida to New York, the average house in New York was constructed in 1957. In Florida, the median date is 1987. Up to 18 percent of all units in Florida sell for less than $100,000. In New York, that number is 5.3 percent. Real estate in the $100,000 to $199,000 price range is even in both states, 23 percent each. After that, the gap increases. Houses in the $200,000 to $299,000 range total 23 percent of all units in Florida, but only 14 percent in New York. In the $300,000 to $399,000 range, the number is 17 percent for Florida, but only 13 percent for New York. The Empire State does do well in high-end housing. Real estate in the $400,000 to $499,000 range accounts for 13 percent of sales in New York, but only 8 percent in Florida. Homes in the $500,000 and higher range make up 32 percent of all sales in New York, but just 12 percent the Sunshine State.

New Yorkers know about property taxes. There is also the income tax. New Yorkers’ earnings are taxed at 8.82 percent. In New Jersey, the number is 10.75 percent. Florida, Texas, and Tennessee have no state income taxes.

Traffic congestion is also more severe in states losing population. According to a study by U.S. News and World Report, the most congested cities in the country with the worst commutes are Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and San Francisco. And then there is the ongoing crime problem.

By 2014, Florida had more residents than New York. That’s not all. Joey Politano, an economics writer with Apricitas Economics, has discovered that there are now more jobs in

Florida than in the Empire State.

Lack of income taxes hasn’t hurt such states as Florida, Texas, and Tennessee to increase gross income. Last year, Florida gained $23.7 billion in gross income, Texas $6.3 billion and Tennessee $2.6 billion. This allows for more expenditures for schools, roads, prisons, pay increases for state employees, plus room to reduce property taxes even further.

The population shifts have not yet amounted to a seismic change in American politics. The blue states still have more people than the reds. Such changes are possible. Since 1980, New York has lost eight congressional seats, while Florida has gained nine. In the last census, California, for the first time ever, lost a congressional seat. The exodus from blue states to red ones may, in time, peak and then level off. But if trends continue for the rest of the decade, Texas, after the 2030 census, could gain four congressional seats, Florida three, North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Idaho, Arizona and Utah one each. The losers will continue to be California, New York, Illinois, and Michigan.

It’s not that New York hasn’t tried to stem the exodus. When he was governor, Andrew Cuomo proposed capping property tax increases at 2 percent for all counties outside New York City. That has worked insofar that neither Nassau nor Suffolk counties lost congressional seats in the last census.

The rest of the state has not been so fortunate. In 1950, New York stood at a zenith as the nation’s--and the world’s--leading political entity. It had 45 congressional seats. Today, New York sends 27 members to Congress. If Florida was a purple state, that might not matter. But if the Sunshine State stays red, that would have real political consequences. The red states, starting in the next decade, could elect presidents without any help from states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, not to mention coastal America.

TODAY, YOU CAN PUT A SMILE ON THE FACE OF A HUNGRY CHILD.

More than 67,000 children in Nassau and Su olk counties worry about where their next meal is coming from.

In 2022, we served more than 196,000 meals to children through our programs, but we must do better.

Kids Cafe, Pack It Up For Kids, Summer Food Service, and Aspara’Gus’ Breakfast Food Truck provide free and nutritious meals and snacks to children in need after school, on weekends and during the summer.