The Week In Retail Issue 5

EDITOR’S COMMENT

IT’S DECISION TIME FOR MENTHOL SMOKERS

Well, it’s finally here. It’s been the usual shambles with very little support for retailers and absolutely no customer-facing communications from the government, but as of midnight last night the Menthol Ban is here.

It’s actually unfathomable how a government can introduce legislation that affects literally millions of consumers without actually going to the bother of telling them about it. As usual, it’s been left to retailers to tell the estimated 26% of consumers that smoke menthol or capsule cigarettes that they can’t get their usual fix as of today. As usual, it’s retailers that will be left to deal with the flak at the tillpoint. It all sounds so depressingly familiar.

Coronavirus clearly hasn’t helped either. With so much going on for everyone to contend with, flagging up the Menthol Ban to consumers has slipped way down the priority list. So what will today bring?

Well, the answer to that isn’t clear at all. The only studies I’ve seen so far (both by JTI) are basically surveys of retailers asking them what they think their customers will do. All good and well, but what they think customers will do and what customers actually do might be two very different things.

The latest survey, carried out in the last couple of weeks, suggested that more and more retailers are coming around to the idea that most menthol and capsule smokers will simply switch to a plain version of the brand they already smoke. That’s been the view of the major tobacco manufacturers all along. If that turns out to be the case, we won’t see the major swing that many are predicting into vaping, reduced risk products, cigarillos, RYO and the various other menthol solutions now on the market.

Interestingly, the number of consumers that retailers expect to quit altogether has also fallen in the time between the two studies with only 6% of menthol and capsule smokers now predicted to quit altogether. The category’s famed resilience looks set to see it through yet another huge challenge, with another massive helping hand from retailers.

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