Earthquakes & Heatwaves & Winter Storms, Oh My!

If the “Yellow Brick Road” leads to renewable sourced energy while simultaneously charging electric vehicular transportation, then Dorothy and Friends have only a short path before uncovering the truth behind the “green curtain.”

As a recap, last month we briefly discussed the state’s decision to permit Mt. Diablo Canyon to continue providing nuclear power based on its reliable, resilient, and low-cost to produce fairly large amounts of clean power. This decision was based on a fear that California’s current capacity of renewably sourced energy lacks the ability to keep pace with current demands. And that’s with an estimated one-million electric vehicles already piloting cities throughout California.

Now, let’s discuss the reality of providing electricity to residents and drivers, all generated through renewable energy sources (most often referred to as “variable renewable energy” (VRE), of which a majority will be via wind and solar panels versus “dispatchable” sources of power.

VREs are constrained and dependent on such factors as weather, location, and time of day, generating power only 25-to-34 percent of the year. On the other hand, dispatchable sources of power, which include nuclear, natural gas, and coal, produce energy on demand. VRE sources do not. We require power at night, during the day, and year-round. Thus, we do depend on dispatchable power plants on the grid to act as a de-facto battery which serves to balance electricity supply and demand when the VREs are unable to provide power. We believe that electrical power must be available 24/7.

Capacity is an important measure of total energy production. It is measured as a percentage of output that the source actually produces, compared to how much the source could produce. Solar farms have an average capacity factor of

24.6 percent and wind farms have an average capacity factor of 34.6 percent, while dispatchable energy ranges between 49 and 92 percent according to a study by Paul Bonifas and Tim Considine. The Bonifas/Considine study concludes by positing the following statement: “Is a 100% renewable grid technologically possible, is it reliable, and is it economical? No, no and no.”

While California sometimes misses a season from time to time, the state is surely no stranger to wild weather from forest fires that eat trees like PEZ during the summers, to earthquakes that shake items off shelves, rattle windows, and roll through paved streets — and do we need to mention the heat that will stroke a streetlight. It does seem these disasters have conspired to destroy with one goal in mind — destruction of an aging power grid’s transmission lines and power transformers that are 25 plus years old. The scale of private investment that will be required to meet replacing, improving, and vastly expanding is daunting. To enable demand, high voltage transmission demand may grow by more than double the 2020 levels, which will require trillions of dollars in new transmission investment according to a Princeton University report.

The undeniable consequence of grid destruction is the inevitable outage could result in widespread and longterm electrical power outage. This