Australia in Space: A capability lens

By Dharshun Sridharan and Nipuni Silva, Piston Labs

The official start of the Space Race is often considered to be October 4, 1957, when the Soviet Union successfully launched the first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, into orbit. This event marked the beginning of the space age and initiated significant developments and achievements by countries around the world, notably the United States and the Soviet Union. Fast forward from humanity’s most significant achievement, NASA’s Apollo 11 mission, and we arrive at the beginning of 2024, a mere handful of years since the establishment of the Australian Space Agency. Although Australia may not have the same level of capital investment as the United States or India, or the critical mass to compete at the highest level, the nation boasts a rich history of supporting major global space programs.

Out of the four strategic pillars identified in Australia’s 2019–2028 civil space strategy, this article aims to analyse the second – 'Develop national capability.' This pillar is critical to the nation’s space sector. There are competing priorities, all crucial to different stakeholders. More importantly, there is little overlap. The insights from the recent Defence Strategic Review (DSR), coupled with AUKUS priorities, along with the nation's civil sectors like Health and Education, and amidst global economic uncertainties and tensions, significantly affect capital investment availability, thereby impacting workforce capabilities and capacity, directly or indirectly (Figure 1). So, when the goals of the Space Sector become interwoven with other key priorities, the path to achievement becomes increasingly intricate and complex.

Globally, Australia is behind the eight-ball in the space sector. With competing priorities and a stretched workforce, the nation is at risk of falling further behind. Resetting is not impossible, and crossroads like this are not necessarily a negative, but coming out on top is complex. Australia needs to rethink its workforce development approach – a slight commercial pivot.

Despite commentary suggesting that Australia may be lagging in the space sector, there is reason to believe that the potential to accelerate, or 'Leapfrog (R&D),' is quite high. Unlike the early days of the space age when agencies and organisations tried to do everything, Australia retains a competitive advantage in understanding the global supply and demand characteristics of the sector.

A very high-level depiction of three recently highlighted sources of capability that are arguably of equal importance with little to no overlap in areas.

This is designed to be a cyclical process of maturing whereby an initial investment towards existing capabilities produces returns that can be reinvested into new, emerging or priority capabilities.

Additionally, Australia comprehends the sectors and capabilities that already exist within the country, which can be leveraged for immediate use. The best example of this is the resources sector and its capabilities in remote operations, automation, and robotics. However, this is just one of the strategic objectives earmarked by the Agency. There are others, and although we may not possess capabilities that are all world-class standard, there is an approach that can close the gap.

The preceding depiction primarily emphasises capability building within civil contexts. However, certain high-priority areas necessitate immediate attention, introducing an additional dimension of consideration (Figure 2). Such areas may be associated with defence and national security, warranting a separate yet interconnected strategy. While this article does not delve into this aspect in detail, a suggested approach, to be explored further in subsequent articles, is provided below. It is crucial to underscore the importance of integrating such a framework with a capability development approach to ensure the success and efficacy of the notion of dual-use.

Tailoring it for Australia’s space sector transforms the approach into one of complexity. This approach recognises Australia’s world-class capabilities in areas such as Remote Operations, Robotics, and Automation, aligning with one of the Agency's focus areas. This field encompasses various sub streams, including advanced manufacturing and emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence. Investing in these areas would yield positive returns, which can be channelled into the next capability. Based on the nation’s history, this next capability would be in the realm of Earth Observation (Figure 3).

The following diagram outlines a potential high-level approach for capability development, to be considered within the broader context of the Investment Cycle and Procurement Strategy, in conjunction with the combined focus areas (e.g., with AUKUS and the DSR). It is essential to emphasise that all these areas are crucial. The key lies in coordinating a strategy to enable and fulfill the nation’s vision in a manner that is sustainable and profitable.

The approach to capability development is not solely limited to the heightened priorities (i.e. defence), but also extends to the cultivation of areas that may be of interest to individuals or organisations. In an emerging space sector like Australia's, it is imperative not to suppress interest or support for domains that may not align with national focus (e.g., space medicine). The above merely outlines a typical approach to nurturing capability growth on a national scale. The challenge facing Australia is not unique; it is a shared challenge experienced by nations worldwide, regardless of their specific national visions, whether space-related or not. In the context of the space sector, it is crucial to step back and recognise a fundamental reality. Space is a global domain, not the exclusive territory of any single state, territory, or nation, unlike airspace, which is sovereign over the territory it covers.

Acknowledging this fundamental fact is the initial step in addressing this complex challenge. No single nation possesses all the capabilities needed to establish itself as a space power, whether in civil or defence contexts.

Instead, every nation contributes as a piece to a broader puzzle. Together, the world collectively becomes a space power. While this might seem like a cliché, it remains a factual reality (disregarding geopolitical considerations). The second step, which an emerging space nation like Australia can seize, is the optimisation of the limited capital investment available. This opportunity should prioritise ventures that can lead to initial profit generation; harnessing existing world-class capabilities. These profits can then be reinvested into the space ecosystem to empower a future workforce to explore newer or weaker areas of national capability.

This approach (Figure 4) represents more than just a roadmap; it is a call for strategic advancement in how Australia's approaches all things Space. While acknowledging the diverse viewpoints of stakeholders regarding capability prioritisation and investments, this strategy offers an alternative perspective in realising Australia's vision in space. As we move into 2024, Australia's role in space, building on the legacy of the Space Race since 1957, is pivotal. Our strategic focus on developing unique capabilities positions Australia not just as a participant but as a key innovator in the evolving narrative of space exploration. This vision extends beyond national borders, contributing significantly to humanity's collective journey in space.