Vol 88 Issue 1 JAN–MAR 2017
Australia's Blue Carbon Future
Oceans fight back against climate change including: Prof Brian greene | Dr emma beckett
Extreme climate change:
Damage and Responsibility
| dr sophie lewis
Trust me, I'm a scientist
|
Dr peter macreadie & more
20,000 leagues under the sea: SF & Seafaring
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CONTENTS
AQ
Vol 88 Issue 1 JAN–MAR 2017
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21
36
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Damage and Responsibility
Oceans fight back against climate change
Speculative fiction and the future of seafaring
Dr Peter Macreadie
Isabelle Guaran
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Prof Brian Greene
Trust Me, I’m a Scientist
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Jesse Jorgensen-Price
Dr Emma Beckett
Great Expectations and the Art of Whinging
Extreme Climate Change: Dr Sophie Lewis
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AQ|Q&A
Australia’s Blue Carbon Future
IMAGE CREDITS: Please see article placements
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20,000 Leagues Under the Sea
Between the Cracks Dr Andrew Stapleton
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References
COVER IMAGE: © www.joannabeckettdesign.com
JAN–MAR 2017
AUSTRALIAN QUARTERLY
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AQ
a word
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Australian Quarterly
here is little doubt that politics-as-usual is under siege. On the 20th January, Donald J Trump will be inaugurated as the President of the United States, perhaps the most acute (and surreal) manifestation of the changing tide. 2017 will also see major elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands, each of which is battling a populist, far-right uprising of their own.
Here in Australia, we are subject to increasingly protectionist squawking from the Senate and House, a groundswell of negative sentiment continuing to push the country to the right. With Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating hitting record lows in 2016, there are very few people from either side of spectrum that aren’t wishing for political revolution, a complete overthrow of the tired and predictable in exchange for the spirited and inspirational. It’s just a shame that this revolution isn’t coming from brave, new politicians with visions of social cohesion and acceptance. If the political centre and left were planning their own revolts against the norm, they seem to have left their run too late. And science will not be immune from these upheavals; a dedication to objectivity does not ensure impartiality, particularly as science and politics collides on issues such as climate change. Now more than ever, science needs to find its voice and be a guiding light in what could end up being a dark few years. This edition is all about those strong, positive voices in science; AQ chats with SciComm superstar Prof Brian Greene, ahead of the groundbreaking World Science Festival in Brisbane. We hear why Blue is the new Green when it comes to halting and reversing climate change, from recent Tall Poppy Award winner, Dr Peter Macreadie. To add to this, we dive into the realm of science fiction, interrogate the Catch-22 of science communication, and once again check in with Andy Matter to see what has fallen between the cracks. Welcome to 2017, we hope you enjoy your stay. Remember to find AQ on Facebook and Twitter, and join the conversation.
Grant Mills
Editor-at-large
Notes for Contributors AQ welcomes submissions of articles and manuscripts on contemporary economic, political, social and philosophical issues, especially where scientific insights have a bearing and where the issues impact on Australian and global public life. All contributions are unpaid. Manuscripts should be original and have not been submitted or published elsewhere, although in negotiation with the Editor, revised prior publications or presentations may be included. Submissions may be subject to peer review. Word length is between 1000 and 3000 words. Longer and shorter lengths may be considered. Articles should be written and argued clearly so they can be easily read by an informed, but non-specialist, readership. A short biographical note of up to 50 words should accompany the work. The Editor welcomes accompanying images. Authors of published articles are required to assign copyright to the Australian Institute of Policy and Science, including signing of a License to Publish which includes acceptance of online archiving and access through JSTOR (from 2010) or other online publication as negotiated by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. In return, authors have a non exclusive license to publish the paper elsewhere at a future date. The inclusion of references and endnotes is the option of the author. Our preference is for these to be available from the author on request. Otherwise, references, endnotes and abbreviations should be used sparingly and kept to a minimum. Articles appearing in AQ are indexed ABC POL SCI: A Bibliography of Contents: Political Science and Government. The International Political Science Abstracts publishes abstracts of political science articles appearing in AQ. Copyright is owned by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. Persons wishing to reproduce an article, or part thereof, must obtain the Institute’s permission. Contributions should be emailed to: The Editor at info@aips.net.au
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Editor: Grant Mills Assistant Editor: Camille Thomson Design and production: Art Graphic Design, Canberra Printing: Newstyle Printing, Adelaide Subscriptions: www.aips.net.au/aq-magazine/ subscribe enquiries to: Camille Thomson, General Manager, AIPS, PO Box M145, Missenden Road NSW 2050 Australia Phone: +61 (02) 9036 9995 Fax: +61 (02) 9036 9960 Email: info@aips.net.au Website: www.aips.net.au/ aq-magazine/ Facebook: www.facebook.com/ AQAustralianQuarterly ISSN 1443-3605 AQ (Australian Quarterly) is published by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. This project is supported by the Commonwealth Government through a grant-in-aid administered by the Department of Finance and Deregulation. ACN 000 025 507 The AIPS is an independent body which promotes discussion and understanding of political, social and scientific issues in Australia. It is not connected with any political party or sectional group. Opinions expressed in AQ are those of the authors. Directors of the Australian Institute of Policy and Science: Leon R Beswick (co-Chair) Andrew Goodsall Maria Kavallaris (co-Chair) Jennelle Kyd Suresh Mahalingam Ross McKinnon Peter M McMahon Peter D Rathjen
Extreme Climate Change:
Climate scientists use the same statistical techniques to determine global warming’s influence in extreme climate events as public health researchers use to investigate the health impacts of smoking and asbestos exposure. The last 31 years have been hotter than average, culminating in a recent increase in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events. The future will serve up more extremes. Public health parallels raise the question, who is responsible for future damages from climate change? ARTICLE BY: Dr Sophie Lewis
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s early as February 2016, climate scientists were making evidence-based predictions that 2016 would become the hottest year in the observational record. Their predictions played out with dire consequences. An aerial survey of the Great Barrier Reef in April 2016 estimated that over 90% of the coral had experienced bleaching. A rapidresponse scientific analysis determined that the catastrophic die-back event would not have been possible without climate change increasing sea surface temperatures that are strongly associated with bleaching.
image: © Topazwoolenwick-Wiki
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Extreme Climate Change: Heading Damage and Responsibility
24-hour period. As heatwaves impacted For Australia, this was just one element human health and our built environment, of a period of persistent heat. Following the unequalled marine heatwaves impacted comparatively cool and wet years of 2010 coastal ecosystems. and 2011, when Australia was under the Recent Australian extremes are one part influence of a La Niña episode, an unprecof a longer trend of unusual heat occurring edented period of heat began. During this right across the globe. As I write this in late extreme period, hundreds of Australian 2016, I am 33 years old, having lived the last temperature records were broken. 31 years in a world where average monthly In 2013 alone, Australia experienced temperatures worldwide have been its hottest day, week, month, season and warmer than the average for the twentieth year on record. The Bureau of Meteorology century. That’s 372 conadded additional secutive months. I am no colours to a January longer young, but have weather forecast to no memories of a “normal accommodate the year.” My partner, now 28 never before recorded years old, has not been extreme temperatures I am 33 years old, having alive in a ‘normal’ year. expected for the follived the last 31 years in a I’ve never seen the Great lowing days. Some of world where average monthly Barrier Reef and I probably these records were never will. At best, I might broken again in 2014, temperatures worldwide have see the impoverished, and again in 2015. The been warmer than the average bleached remains of a unprecedented heat for the twentieth century. That’s previously great wonder has not yet abated. of our natural world. This catalogue 372 consecutive months. Recent record-breaking of record-breaking temperatures are a clear temperatures constiprelude to future climate change. I am at tutes far more than a note in the margin the age where many friends have young of Australia’s climate history. These years of children, and are filled with the typical anxiexcess heat have been accompanied by eties about providing them with the best severe impacts that relentlessly affected start in life. The future lives of these children Australian communities and our natural lies firmly in a world where our recent environment. 2013 began with bushfires shattering temperatures will be mild. While across Tasmania’s southeast, which were I grew up in a world above average, our followed by unseasonably early bushfires children’s world will be extreme. in the Blue Mountains in Spring 2013. The scientific evidence is clear, with a Heatwaves in January 2014 shut down suite of scientific studies comprehensively play at the Australian Open, while literlinking the occurrence of Australia’s recent ally thousands of fires were reported in a
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Image: © Queensland Museum
with Prof Brian Greene
ARTICLE BY: Jesse Jorgensen-Price
Theoretical physicist Brian Greene has spent his life understanding the gravity of the smallest questions of our Universe. A world leader in superstring theory, Prof Greene is the Director of the Institute for Strings, Cosmology, and Astroparticle Physics at Colombia University.
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e is also is one of the most prominent voices in modern science. He frequents television shows such as David Letterman and Stephen Colbert, where he explains complex physics with relatively simple demonstrations and fast-paced wit. Others might be familiar with his more scripted appearances on the U.S. comedy series The Big Bang Theory, his TED talk, and his hosting of the series The Fabric of the Cosmos. On top of this, Prof Greene is the author of four highly acclaimed books – including a children’s book on Einstein’s insights into relativity. Yet one of his greatest science communication achievements remains the co-founding of the World Science Festival in New York City, which has had eight successful years and had its first international festival hosted in Brisbane in 2016. I caught up with the man the Washington Post called “The single best explainer of abstruse concepts in the world today” to talk about string theory, and why science should be considered as culturally important as literature and art.
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e’ll start with an easy question. What is string theory?
Brian: String theory is the attempt to realise a dream that was most forcefully articulated by Albert Einstein, which is to find a single, unified theory that can describe all of nature’s forces. Einstein dreamed of finding that theory but never did, and we think that string theory might be what he was looking for. The essential conflict that was the stumbling block for many decades in building
a unified theory is that Einstein’s theory of gravity, the general theory of relativity, does not work well with our theory of the small things in the universe, quantum mechanics… The inhospitable relationship between quantum mechanics and general relativity blocked our effort to build a unified theory for a long time. String theory, with remarkable new ideas has, at least on paper, been able to put the laws of the big and the small together; that is, unite general relativity and quantum mechanics in one mathematical framework.
The Song of the Universe String theory looks at what the world is made of at the smallest possible scale. While many people are familiar with molecules and atoms and the subatomic particles that make them up, such as protons, neutrons, electrons and quarks, string theory proposes an even more fundamental basis for the universe. According to string theory, there is one finer level of structure inside of the particles, and if you to look inside a sub-atomic particle you would see a little tiny filament of vibrating energy that looks like a string. Similar to when you pluck a stringed instrument to get different notes, different vibrations of these filaments may produce different particles.
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Australia’s Blue Carbon Future
Oceans fight back against climate change Australia’s marine industries are expected to contribute $100 billion pa to our economy by 2025, but there is uncertainty how our oceans will cope with increased exploitation and climate change. At risk are important ecosystem services that are also vital to our economy and society – such as carbon sequestration, coastal protection, and nutrient cycling – which are not commoditised or adequately valued, yet they underpin Australia’s marine economy. ARTICLE BY: Dr Peter Macreadie
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here is a growing movement to recognise the vital link between our marine economy and the natural ecosystems from which they derive, to support decision-making and better resource management. The poster child for the movement is ‘blue carbon’ – which refers to carbon that is stored and sequestered by the oceans, and represents a powerful new opportunity for offsetting Australia’s carbon emissions while creating an innovative mechanism for coastal restoration and protection. I’m normally pretty quick to hang up on phone sales people, but as someone deeply concerned about climate change, it was hard to ignore this: “Hi I’m from your energy supplier and I’d like to know if you want to switch to green energy and reduce your impact on the environment?” My response: “Of course, who wouldn’t?! Sign me up!” After some pleasant banter about how wonderful it is that our world is increasingly switching to green energy, I was ready to end the conversation and get back to my family dinner. But then came something I wasn’t expecting, as the salesman said: “So can I go ahead and authorise the extra
Trust Me, I’m a Scientist
Many scientific issues remain constant topics of debate in the political and public spheres. Climate change, water fluoridation, dietary guidelines, GM foods, vaccines and evolution are all seen as controversial despite enjoying general scientific consensus. If scientists are the experts, why don’t we defer to them on scientific matters? ARTICLE BY: Dr Emma Beckett
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t’s not that people don’t trust scientists. They often rate highly on surveys of “the most trusted professions” around the world.1 However, for many issues, this doesn’t translate into trust in the science. A recent survey of scientists and the public by the Pew Research Centre in the US2 illustrates the divide. While most scientists (88%) say GM food is safe, only 37% of the public agree. The theory of evolution, almost unanimously supported amongst scientists (98%), is only accepted by 65% of the public. 87% of scientists believe climate change is due to human activity, compared to only half of the public.
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