Vol 88 Issue 2 APR–JUN 2017
Land of the Free (Market): The Oxymoron of American Democracy including: Prof Graham Maddox
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Dr Geoff James
Personalised Medicine:
More Than Just Personal
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A/Prof Kristine Barlow-Stewart & more
A Steampunk Vision: Prosumers
Open Science Drug Discovery: Global Solutions
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CONTENTS
AQ
Vol 88 Issue 2 APR–JUN 2017
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31
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22
38
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15
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More Than Just Personal
Global Solutions to Global Problems
The Oxymoron of American Democracy
Dr Alice E Williamson
Prof Graham Maddox
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22
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Prosumers and Frequency Control
Portents for the Post- Anthropocene Geological Era
Open Source Drug Discovery
State of the Nation: Victoria Curiosity, Passion and Life-Long Learning ~ Catalysts of Victoria’s Future Dr Amanda Caples
Land of the Free (Market)
A Steampunk Vision Dr Geoff James
IMAGE CREDITS: Please see article placements
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Personalised Medicine A/Prof Kristine Barlow-Stewart
The Plutocene Dr Andrew Glikson
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Between the Gaps
References – page 41
Science and SciComm Dr Andrew Stapleton
COVER IMAGE: © Annabel Robinson
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AQ
a word
I
Australian Quarterly
f it could be said that there was a fundamental energy that fuelled human society, it would be that fissive, uncontrollable, potentially-explosive power born of the tension between the past and the future.
We’re drawn to the irresistibility of the future without being able to escape the gravity of the past – a convenient over-simplification is: the cold electricity of progress versus the warm embrace of nostalgia. To my mind, the feeling of our social fabric being pulled both forward and back, stretching and thinning like a balloon, has never felt so pronounced as it has in the last 12 months. The rapid run away of technologies that could alter the very nature of humanity, the fistthumping roll-back agendas of Trump and the resurgent Tony Abbott. The alienation of free media straight out of the Golden-Age-of-Dictators playbook, stock markets skyrocketing on a wave of apparent optimism, even as global cynicism reaches its peak. Entrenched corporate interests playing frantic whack-a-mole with disruptive technologies…the list goes on – sometimes it’s hard to know what era we are actually living in. Most of this edition’s articles exist at this critical past/future junction and a common theme links each of these. The power structures that oppose these new movements have chosen to be so rigid that adaption is not an option; only destruction is likely to make way for change. We discuss Open Source Drug Discovery with Dr Alice Williamson, and see how transparent science is revealing the transparent greed of Big Pharma. Dr Geoff James plots the inevitable transition of Australia’s electricity consumers into ‘prosumers’, at a time when the Australian Government is inexplicably advocating the construction of more coal-powered energy. We also stand on the edge of an era of personalised medicine – where we can hold our own genetic secrets in our hand. But are we ready for such knowledge, and how can me make sure that the future is set up to benefit us? And speaking of eras, Dr Andrew Glikson dives into the planet’s geological future/history to theorise on how short-lived the Anthropocene will be, and what will be the next geological era that human activity has ushered in? There’s all this and more in this jam-packed edition!
Grant Mills
Editor-at-large
Notes for Contributors AQ welcomes submissions of articles and manuscripts on contemporary economic, political, social and philosophical issues, especially where scientific insights have a bearing and where the issues impact on Australian and global public life. All contributions are unpaid. Manuscripts should be original and have not been submitted or published elsewhere, although in negotiation with the Editor, revised prior publications or presentations may be included. Submissions may be subject to peer review. Word length is between 1000 and 3000 words. Longer and shorter lengths may be considered. Articles should be written and argued clearly so they can be easily read by an informed, but non-specialist, readership. A short biographical note of up to 50 words should accompany the work. The Editor welcomes accompanying images. Authors of published articles are required to assign copyright to the Australian Institute of Policy and Science, including signing of a License to Publish which includes acceptance of online archiving and access through JSTOR (from 2010) or other online publication as negotiated by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. In return, authors have a non exclusive license to publish the paper elsewhere at a future date. The inclusion of references and endnotes is the option of the author. Our preference is for these to be available from the author on request. Otherwise, references, endnotes and abbreviations should be used sparingly and kept to a minimum. Articles appearing in AQ are indexed ABC POL SCI: A Bibliography of Contents: Political Science and Government. The International Political Science Abstracts publishes abstracts of political science articles appearing in AQ. Copyright is owned by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. Persons wishing to reproduce an article, or part thereof, must obtain the Institute’s permission. Contributions should be emailed to: The Editor at info@aips.net.au
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Editor: Grant Mills Assistant Editor: Camille Thomson Design and production: Art Graphic Design, Canberra Printing: Newstyle Printing, Adelaide Subscriptions: www.aips.net.au/aq-magazine/ subscribe enquiries to: Camille Thomson, General Manager, AIPS, PO Box M145, Missenden Road NSW 2050 Australia Phone: +61 (02) 9036 9995 Fax: +61 (02) 9036 9960 Email: info@aips.net.au Website: www.aips.net.au/ aq-magazine/ Facebook: www.facebook.com/ AQAustralianQuarterly ISSN 1443-3605 AQ (Australian Quarterly) is published by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. This project is supported by the Commonwealth Government through a grant-in-aid administered by the Department of Finance and Deregulation. ACN 000 025 507 The AIPS is an independent body which promotes discussion and understanding of political, social and scientific issues in Australia. It is not connected with any political party or sectional group. Opinions expressed in AQ are those of the authors. Directors of the Australian Institute of Policy and Science: Leon R Beswick (co-Chair) Andrew Goodsall Maria Kavallaris (co-Chair) Jennelle Kyd Suresh Mahalingam Ross McKinnon Peter M McMahon Peter D Rathjen
Open Source Drug Discovery
Open Source Drug Discovery: Global Solutions to Global Problems Despite phenomenal advances in diagnostics, medical interventions, and therapeutics, universal access to medicines and healthcare has not been realised. While access to curative medicines for diseases such as Alzheimer’s or diabetes is limited by progress in research and development, many other diseases are entirely preventable and/or treatable and their continued prevalence is inextricably linked with poverty. How can we achieve equitable global healthcare when disease solutions are so tightly bound to corporate profitability? ARTICLE BY: Dr Alice E Williamson
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eople who live without adequate sanitation are exposed to more diseases; people who live outside of adequate healthcare infrastructure may not receive diagnosis or prescription medicines; and people living with, or dying from, diseases that aren’t profitable are not a major focus for the development of new medicines. Take malaria for example. It is one of the world’s oldest diseases with symptoms first documented in ancient Chinese writings in 2700 BC.1 Although preventable and treatable, there are still over 200 million cases
of malaria every year and around 429 000 fatalities, most of whom are young children. A concerted global effort, combined with unprecedented funding, helped to reduce the number of deaths by 22% between 2000 and 2015,2 demonstrating exactly what can be achieved with the appropriate infrastructure and investment. However reports of resistance to the frontline treatment – artemisinin combination therapies – threaten to reverse this trend with devastating consequences. Malaria is only one of the diseases in urgent need of new medicines.
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Open Source Drug Discovery
The Six Laws of Open Science 1 2 3
First Law:
All data are open and all ideas are shared. Second Law: Anyone can take part at any level of the project. Third Law: There will be no patents.
This urgent need for new medicines captured the world’s attention during recent Ebola and Zika outbreaks. The public were alarmed and surprised to learn that there was no treatment for either disease, but previously neither had been an attractive target for an industry driven by profit. In 2015, Dr Margaret Chan, director of the World Health Organisation (WHO), addressed this at the WHO’s regional committee for Africa in Benin:
Ebola emerged nearly four decades ago. Why are clinicians still empty-handed, with no vaccines and no cure? Because Ebola has historically been confined to poor African nations. The R&D incentive is virtually non-existent. A profit-driven industry does not invest in products for markets that cannot pay.3
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US$2.6 billion to bring a new drug to market and it takes 12 years.4 However, closer examination of Fifth Law: this figure reveals that Public discussion is much more valuable than private email. only 1.3% is spent on research compared Sixth Law: to an estimated The project is bigger than, and is not owned by, any 25% on marketing.4 given lab. It must be possible to achieve a more favourable ratio. Because of the huge amounts of money invested, Because the majority of new medicines competition between companies is fierce are discovered by the pharmaceutical and research is veiled in secrecy. While industry, stakeholders and share indices stakes are high, secrecy hampers the require a return on the sizeable investefficiency of drug discovery. For example, ments issued at the outset of a drug researchers could be working on identical discovery campaign. It would seem that compounds for years. This duplication of the traditional model for drug discovery is effort and resources is problematic even unsuited to diseases that disproportionif different groups discover the same new ately affect the world’s poor. medicine independently, but if the research Undoubtedly, there are big risks involved project fails in these laboratories then this in drug discovery. A promising medicine has tragic consequences for patients. can fail at any stage of the development process. For example, in 2016, the promisBut what if there was no ing anti-Alzheimer’s drug, Solanezumab, secrecy? failed in Phase 3 of its clinical trial. At this stage the molecule had already been Open source drug discovery aims to plucked from 100s or 1000s of possible remove secrecy from the drug developcandidates, been screened for negative side ment process and consequently reduce effects, had its physical properties analysed, the time and costs involved. In 2011, A/ been evaluated in animal models and then Prof Matthew Todd, from the University of been through two separate human trials. Sydney, founded the Open Source Malaria The process is hugely expensive and (OSM) consortium. The idea was to apply open source principles to the search for takes a lot of time. On average it costs
Fourth Law: Suggestions are the best form of criticism.
Ebola has historically been confined to poor African nations. The R&D incentive is virtually non-existent.
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Graham Maddox is the author of the new book Stepping Up to the Plate. America, and Australian Democracy. For more information see page 20
Land of the Free (Market): The oxymoron of American Democracy
The paradox of democracy is that it is designed to defend the freedoms of all and to subject the government to the legitimate concerns of the people. Yet those very freedoms give licence to those who fundamentally spurn them and threaten the ideals of democracy themselves. The Inauguration of Donald Trump illustrates the paradox. The demonstrations against his accession were greater that the public show of support at his swearing in. ARTICLE BY: Prof Graham Maddox
image: © garycycles8-Flickr
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rump was elected on a tide of emotional fervour from ‘middle America’, while the traditional powerhouses of New York and California raised stormy billows against everything he stood for. Many of his hostile pronouncements and Twittered epigrams were against the very spirit of democracy, particularly those directed at minorities within the population. Some trust that the Congress, although dominated by the Republican Party that nominated him, will act as a brake on his more outlandish intentions. Yet the peculiar nature of the Constitution of the United States is that its system of separated
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A steampunk vision: Prosumers and Frequency Control
A Steampunk Vision:
Prosumers and Frequency Control The electricity system is created as a giant rotating mass. Hundreds of fast-spinning turbines are elegantly joined together by three-phase electrical currents twisting along the transmission network – Australia has the longest in the world. They are synchronised at 3,000 rpm divided by some number of electrical windings, so that the passing of rotors over stators forms an alternating current at the 50 Hz grid frequency. ARTICLE BY: Dr Geoff James
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his is maintained with remarkable precision. Consumers provide the drag that slows the rotation, by drawing energy out of the system, while fossil-fuel or hydro generators – and more recently wind and solar generators – provide the acceleration. In the driver’s seat is the system operator, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which also has the parallel role of facilitating energy trading. The accuracy of frequency control in any large electricity grid puts automobile drivers to shame: in Australia1 any deviation beyond 49.85 Hz to 50.15 Hz raises eyebrows. Even in the case of a major generator or network
The Plutocene:
Portents for the PostAnthropocene Geological Era “For a species to learn to trigger ignition and to split the atom, enhancing its energy output that leads to an increase in entropy in nature by orders of magnitude higher than the species’ own physical capacity, the species needs to be perfectly wise and responsible, lest the invention gets out of control, engulfing nature. It is unlikely any species can achieve such levels of wisdom and responsibility”.1 Consequently a greenhouse gas-dominated tropical anthropocentric era is born, from the late Anthropocene to the Plutocene, marked by a layer of 239+240Plutonium in the deep oceans, with radiation lasting for at least 24,100 years. ARTICLE BY: Dr Andrew Glikson
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iven time, a possibility may evolve into a probability, and a probability may become a certainty. By the late decades of the 20th century AD and the initial decades of the 21st century AD, as a shift takes place in the state of the atmosphere-ocean-ice sheets system, toward climate tipping points, a mass extinction of species occurs before our eyes, at a rate of 1000 to 10,000 times the natural background extinction rate2. It is becoming clear that, instead of channeling its efforts to protect its planetary biosphere – including its own civilisation – Homo sapiens continues to sink its remaining resources into genocidal wars and the proliferation of hair-trigger nuclear missile fleets, which threaten dissemination
IMAGE: The nuclear test at Mururoa atoll, 3 July, 1970.
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