Forecasting East Manchester by ARCHITECT l Sophie Cosgrove

FORECASTING FUTURES

abstract challenging conventional views of regeneration through developing a method to enable more informed decision making by pre-analysing outcomes of projected future scenarios for measurable, performance-based design. in turn seeking to evolve the design process from â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;predict and planâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; systems towards strategy and feedback solutions. this project entails the coding of large scale hypothetical scenarios for ardwick, the chosen site within east manchester. these models are compared to the siteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current state through real-time feedback and reports of spatial, socio-economic and environmental data. this process is used as an exemplatory project for what this method could achieve and enable in real-world policy and design processes.

project strategy diagram

STEP

01 E.M

02 SPATIAL

STEP

03 04 05 06

ENVIROMENTAL

SOCIAL

03 04

STEP

site selection from census data

STEP

analyse & model site - current

STEP

choose indicators to analyse S

S LE

G TIN

AD RO

I BD

SI VI

T LO

ILD

extract rules from precedents & create hypothetical models

analyse and compare outcomes through indicators

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

introduction theory use/users site analysis method - model method - analysis the scenarios the analysis

project contents

introdu

uction

scope of analysis

div

current

s m e obl

o v e d

n a ing

g r e v

r p g vl in

current system this project aims to challenge conventional values about how our cities are developed and remade by questioning and redefining the fundamental agenda of urban regeneration.

fixed aim future

currently design projects begin with particular analysis of the present and perhaps historic situation. however, due to the unremittingly transformative nature of society and its demands, by the time these projects are executed the issues they were intended to resolve have diverged and evolved. leaving conditions where projects donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t create the expected impact, which in turn leads to the need fror tabula rasa regeneration.

figure1

reative destruction

as explored in part 1 of this project, manchesters current regeneration approach applies to this concept of tabula rasa, remaking the territory as part of creative destruction, erasing existing fabric to create future that seems more promising for prosperous economical growth of the city, generating social conditions which need to be addressed. this project advocates a method for more considered design processes prior to execution in ordert to evade this need for constant destruction, where buildings last their intended worth.

01 current east manc

chester

currently east manchester is undergoing vast changes to try to address the multitude of socioeconomic issues which itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population faces. this is being undertaken through series of cpo areas and new large scale interventions. this project suggests, that through the pre-analysis of situations and their various outcomes, more informed design decisions could be made within these areas to employ more effective and efficient schemes, improving east manchester both spatially and socioeconomically.

figure2

the urban body developers are true urban editors. they are linked with the city authorities and necessary political powers and they make the urban editing. architects are in a secondary role â&#x20AC;&#x201C; something like the hyenas after the lions have made the kill. money is a good consultant and the generating force of the developer run urban editing process. this is not urban acupuncture though; it is more like a western-style medical practice. â&#x20AC;&#x201C; operations on the body removing, changing or maintaining parts even plastic surgery. marco casagrande, ( ref 2)

01 figure 3

the metaphor of the city as a body consisting of various functional organs has long been present in the discourse on architecture and the city. architecture and urban planning rely on medical rhetoric to describe problems and arrive at solutions defined in the medical milieu, correspondingly east manchester’s considered need for regeneration can be considered it’s illness, in need of healing. this project entails a method for the examination of the ‘urban body’ in order to diagnose and prognose the optimum healing solution.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;globesity,â&#x20AC;? as described by historian sander gilman is , the territory overrun by urban sprawl in the past 60 years represented by the image of a bloated body, supported by an inadequate and deteriorating internal structure , a fragile skeleton (ref 5). this size and characteristics of the urban body inhabited today are very different from those of a century ago. as such we must take this swelling epidemic into account whilst designing for future cities, analysing the true nature of the current urban form before implementing designs a priori. adapting our process of design to consider the influx of people into urban areas and the unremitting multitude of technological and environmental changes occurring in the city.

globesity

figure 4

one attempt to address this â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;globesityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; is urban accupuncture. acupuncture relieves stress in the body, correspondingly urban acupuncture relieves stress in the environment. these small-scale but socially catalytic interventions into the urban fabric establish localized nuclei similar to the human bodyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s meridians. attempting punctual manipulation of the urban energy flows in order to create an ecologically sustainable urban development in contrast to master planned functionally zoned city which separate and segregate past from progression. rather than neglect abandon or erase our urban heritage, urban acupuncture preserves, rehabilitates , reclaims , restores and renovates what is underperforming and adds what is missing through informed designs. it is the informing of these designs to strive to achieve a greater and more catalytic effect which this project focuses on.

rban acupuncture figure 5

figure 5

figure 6

the pin-prick the aim of all interventions should be a pinprick of urbanism whose effect on the surrounding area exceeds its diminutive dimensions, seeking to contribute and enhance their surroundings, both spatially and socioeconomically.

for the proposed â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;pinpr within the urban grain it activities. generating su of society an example of such guggenheim bilbao. bilb and cultural restructurin

in an article, march 3 following question: â&#x20AC;&#x153;can to life? more precisely, for an abandoned ship breath new economic city in a thorough study of how reveals equally significa the design architect, th inexperienced owner, t project manager, the construction, the transf by information technolo unprecedented p

by studying these issues the success of the g figure7

rick’ of acupuncture to act as a catalyst t must stimulate both social and economic ustainable systems that integrate the needs y with the integrity of nature. a catalytic urban intervention is the bao embarked on a process of economic ng by employing architecture as a catalyst.

31, 1999, the washington post posed the n a single building bring a whole city back , can a single modern building designed pyard by a laid-back california architect and cultural life into a decaying industrial n the spanish rust belt?” ref 6 w this building was conceived and made ant aspects such as getting the best from he master handling of the project by an the pivotal role of the executive architecte dependence on local expertise for formation of the architectural profession ogy, the budgeting and scheduling of an project without sufficient information.

s, the greater question can be asked: “can guggenheim museum be repeated?”

section 2 theoretcia tion

theo

al text and applica-

ory

thethesystem system

TOP DOWN TOP DOWN

PROCESSORS PROCESSORS

OUTCOMES OUTCOMES

complex complex rulesrules

(arrestive) (arrestive)

placeplace makingmaking

(deterministic) (deterministic)

command command + control + control (drestrictive) (drestrictive)

'bigness' 'bigness'

massive small

massive small is a book which argues against the current ‘top down’ predict and plan method of designing, suggesting instead small evolutions to the designing system in order to deal with things comprehensively and encourage ‘massive small change’; ie the lightest touch, not just the heavy hand of control. where plans become prescriptive rather than determining.

evolved system

TOP DOWN

PROCESSORS

OUTCOMES

simple rules

(generative)

condition making (responsive)

enabling leadership (permissive)

'massive small'

â&#x20AC;&#x153;planning, instead of dealing with things in the round, deals with separate elements of a larger problem or opportunity, in which it is difficult for the sum of the parts even to add to their mathematical total, let alone exceed itâ&#x20AC;? (Massive Small, 2011, Kelvin Campbell) ref 7

massive small

the text advocates for designs which understand, respect and seek to improve the exsiting rather than be done remotely. it suggests new â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;complexâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; thinking to solve problems of exponential growth where planning is proactive and goes beyond thinking of individual sites towards dealing with the city. this project enables this through a method to model and analyze the wider context and layers of influence of schemes. massive small simplifies their ideal design process into its three core stages- few simple rules, condition making, enabling leadership. this project adopts these steps, implementing few simple rules (ie defined planning policy) to create the conditions for a digital model which enables leadership, ie informed decisions about the planning, design and operation of places.

few simple rules

condition making

enabling leadership

how ap report

the texts theory is implemented to try to evolve the system so that designe it is impossible to plan endstates, thus the current â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;command and controlâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; method of feedback to derive optimum and adapting informed decisions. multiple scenarios can to refine decision-makin this strategic design approach provides an empirical, evidence-based approach to an

pplying theoretical text decision make

future

ers can survey their projects throughout the stages in real-time feedback loops through modelling. designing as described by massive small is illogical. instead the preconditions can be analysed for continuous n be played out to see what would happen if certain development paths were taken or not taken , which helps ng and choose the most successful path forward. nalysing cities that will generate an increased understanding spatial , social and environmental structure, shaping resilient cities

scope of analysis

id ve

2015

i v l evo

proposed system

erg

d n a ing

s m i a g n

â&#x20AC;&#x153;traditionally, urban plans and detail plans have been developed with rigid and definitive design systems.to deal with the complexity and change that characterize contemporary urban societies a more flexible approach to design is required.â&#x20AC;? (Beirao & Duarte, 2005)

ref 8

there are some problems whose complexity, level of uncertainty or range of possible solutions require a synergic relationship between the human mind and a computer system.

future

as such the proposal is a digital model build for analysis which transcends traditional manual models, not to predict but to forecast the future outcomes, evolving designs and policys alongside diverging conditions. these forecast models enable the testing of planning and design ideas from an early conceptual stage right through to detailed design and post-occupancy.

geodemographic analysis can be seen as the xray crystallography o probable characteristics of people based on the pooled profile of al geodemography is the application of geodemographic classifi and neighborhoods are formed. it is an interscience discipline which geography, the study of the spatial variation of both physical and hu

as such my form of urban dissection seeks to use this form of fusing of producing a scientific and detailed model of the area, in turn identify both the subjective and objective factors are introduced to create morphological patterns, deriving important values concerning resour this would create a multi-dimensional map of the perception of in which subjects, city dwellers, appear not only in terms of their perc objective.

tim

? geodemographics

? ? time ? geodemographics space

geodemography is an interscience discipline which applies demography, the study of human population dynamics, of urban gene identification, where systems estimate the most geography, the study of the spatial ll people living in a small area near a particular address. variation of both physical and human fications seeking to understand the processes by which cities evolve phenomena and sociology. applies demography, the study of human population dynamics, uman phenomena and sociology. space connects or segregates; brings

sub

jec

tive

space

f spatial with socio-economic data to integrate layers of study, ying the genes that can be modified; urban genetic medicine. a balanced network of environmental, socioeconomic, and rces and infrastructure. f the city, along the axes of time, space, emotions and themes ceptions, but also according to their interrelations, both and

sub

me s

space

jec

tive

people into social and economic relationships or keeps them apart; helps people save time or consigns them to carbon-intensive lifestyles; enhances real estate value or damages investments; increases safety or encourages criminal behaviour. it is the responsability of urban designers to acknowledge this multi-influential nature of design. as such influenced attributes such as socio-economic and environment need to be incorporated and considered in decisons paths

geodemographics

the implementation of geodemography in a model would create a multidimensional map of the perception of the city, along the axes of time, space, emotions. however, this incorporation of subjective indicators into a programmed spatial model is very difficult.

geometry os mm building footprints

lidar building heights

os mastermap data

transport network housing &built environment database

core and potenti density

access to local services

land use

urban modeling

housi

fine scale socio economic data land use, building, use age

land registry house price

onal geographies geodempographic data,

census data, employment data

voa buisness rates

this data could be fed into a 3d model acting as a visual filing cabinet for multiple layers of information in order to facilitate more informed policy and design decisions

ial applications

ing

energy usage

accessability measures

explore uplift rates

02 proposed design sy static model

feedb

back model

ystem

? ? ? ? incorporating all this data allows for feedback loops, where rather than a static model just for visulaisation, 3d models can be constantly analysed and questioned through indicators. in turn being repeatedly updated, evolving in order to support solving more complex problems in urban planning, disaster management, facility management etc. the benefits of such a system in the urban design process are, once the rules or relationships have been calibrated, different design options can be explored through the manipulation of parameters or inputs which generated through the system software, making it responsive, quick and dynamic to evaluate and explore varying design options, alternatives and â&#x20AC;&#x153;what if ? â&#x20AC;? scenarios. the method pushes the boundaries of the current static design methods and involve more dynamic and responsive techniques in the urban design, aiding but not repacing the human mind.

section 3v users/use

use /

users

gov

local councils

urban entrepreneurs

prof

city planners

urban designers

vernment

olicymakers

a multitude of government and private entities could profit from the wealth of information stored in these 3d models.

mayors

citizens

citizen leaders

student researchers

fessionals

developers

urban sociologists

architects

city planners and developers: visualize the impact of proposed projects GIS & mapping departments: realize more accurate building footprints sustainability planners: see solar resource potential from roof measurements and â&#x20AC;&#x153;greenâ&#x20AC;? buildings civil engineers: perform line-of-sight and shadow analyses police, fire, and security: gain more complete situational awareness

previously anyone wanting to get involved in city planning would have had visit the town hall to look at maps that they may not have understood. however, updating the way we design using the 3d feedback models method devised by this project, would allow government, citizens and professionals alike to understand the visual nature of the data produced . the ability to visualise change and its outcomes could revolutionise how cities are built.

clients

figure 17

as much about the power of the presentation as it is about the processing

participation

amalgamating ina a visual this approach to analyzing data scenarios in visual form seeks to enhance the digital form seeks to enhance the digital city model to become planning support systems (pss), i.e. tool to to invite the citizen to planning city model become participate in the reconstruction of urban support (pss), reality. helping improve systems community and stakeholder engagement â&#x20AC;&#x201C; as the results can be shown before development takes place, to gauge response and feedback. the digital visualisation provides a powerful medium in which to abstract and to analyse the data in a manner which can be comprehended by all, it is as much about the power of the presentation as it is about the processing.

as much about the power of the presentation as it is about the processing

currently many attempts at opening detailed models are blocked by creators or stakeholders in order to be able to charge commissions for the making of said models, blocking the chance for true participation.

accordingly the method employed in this project allows for the models and their information to be viewed on an online platform.the participants wouldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t be able to manipulate the model themselves, but they would be able to comprehend the change and consequences of the proposals, a step towards true participation

creators

stake holders

public

03 the constant adaption of policys to respond to feedback derived from the models which analyse inputs from society could lead to more anthropocentric environments. the incorporation of different themes of analysis in the models to attempt to address different social, environmental and spatial issues could facilitate a new urbanism which directly responds to current and forecasted social climates. a well-mapped and understood urban design decision-making process would also provide an appropriate balance between creativity and procedure. such a process gives structure to the design of cities, yet does not impose a strict set of criteria on decision-makers and stakeholders which could potentially remove originality and innovation from environments

policy a model which itself updates and reports feedback in real time could create a fundamental shift in planning behaviour, where policys can be readily adapted and reconditioned according to specific outcomes from analysis. In turn this all aiding the manufacture of a more ecological and sustainable future.

design

informing policy 02

analyse

compare

urban analysis has been de knowledge and skills with problems (Pacione, 199 investigation with data, ur insights and empirical gr particularly

accordingly followi brief is to create a d the forecasting an of future scenarios models which repor and analyzed for t applied through the To try and eradica tabula rasa and be through pre-analys cura

figure 18

b 03

efined as the use of multidisciplinary h the objective of solving urban 90). collaborating this form of rban informatics, can provide new rounding for a number of fields, y for urban planning.

ing the theory the refined digital modeling method for nd testing of the outcomes s. thus the aim is to create rt attributes to be compared the improvement of designs e test site of east manchester. ate the need for large scale ecome preventative of issues sis rather than rely on the ative, rebuilds.

brief

section 4

site sel

& ana

lection

alysis

site selection

areas of very good health %

51.9 + % 48 - 51.9 %

45 - 48 %

41.7 - 45 %

to choose the test site for the models wanted to select the location in most need of regeneration both spatially and socio-economically. to do this began by graphically modelling socioeconomic indicators of census data from east manchester. the representative spheres of the areas were sized according to how â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;badlyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; they performed on the chosen indicators. The volumes of census layer spheres were then cumulated per area, which was then transposed into a graph of points (volume equaling height of point). Following this the highest point (the worst performer) was used to choose a point on east manchester most in need of intervention.

poor health 0 - 1.8+%

short term residents 0 - 39.6+ (non uk born)

mapping data

no qualifications

0 - 16+%

house poverty 0 - 27.6+%

mapping data employed 0 - 89.5+%

lone person household 0 - 32.2+%

site selection

ardwick

exploration

following the site exploration it became apparent that the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;regenerationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; of ardwick has begun but facing delays. many vacant plots and buildings were left subsequent to cpos awaiting intervention. small areas have recieved investment with new detahced residences fit between deteriorating areas. there is also a plethora of shed and warehouses and large industrial plots .

city centre

figure 21

local regener

establish/enahne district & local centres focus on employment and enterprise locations housing led development enhance public open space promote orbital routes address inward looking estates

spatial strategy figure 22

ration strategy

city gateways city conections neighbourhood focus

key areas of change

radial routes and orbital links to serve the community

04 local plan regen successful urban neighbourhoods and centres

figure 22

employment and enterprise to build on growth drivers and meet needs

high quality public realm, focus on avenues and parks

neration strategy

not only se information dwellers, w variables to

not only informatio dwellers, variables

figure 23

eek to address the spatial aspects but integrate the created by the ‘cells’ of the urban body, the city who introduce human fuzziness andadding socio-cultural the purpose of this project is to elaborate on spatial models, new layers of analysis both environmental and socio-economical. as o the study of the city in the microscope of urban such it is necessary to closely analyse and dissect these conditions surrounding the current urban fabric anatomy.

seek to address the spatial aspects but integr on created by the ‘cells’ of the urban body, t who introduce human fuzziness and socioto the study of the city in the microscope o anatomy.

method -

section 5 - project how

- models

current ardwick model

PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

project progression

PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

following the analysis it is apparent ardiwck is in need of large scale intervention, however, its the same fixed ‘command and control’ method of design as mentioned earlier. as such, this pro method of exploring future scenarios in an analytical and scientific way through comparing and c outcomes. rather than implement urban acupuncture as explored earlier, decided for this project to demo method with drastic large scale changes across ardwick, to emphasise the potential of the modelling and impact on analysis. correspondingly have chosen to model ardwick’s current state and 2 hypothetical scenarios; o residential in its entirety and one high rise mixed use. the two hypothetical models are based on rules from 2 similar sized real-world areas (fallowfield & Westminster), extracting attributes such as foot height and street setback to derive layout and formation of model. accordingly the three models created are then analysed and compared in order to suggested a future trajectory for ardwick.

PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

high rise i mixed use PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

a preferred

PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

one low rise abstracted tprint, eave

PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

onstrate the g technique

PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

risks facing oject tests a calculating

low rise i residential

PRODUCED BY AN AUTODESK EDUCATIONAL PRODUCT

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Each building can be a visual filing cabinet of who owns what, how many people live and work somewhere, how much traffic is generated, how much pollutant is generated and what material a building is made of,â&#x20AC;? michael batty ref 10

figure 27

virtual london an example of a similar informative model is ‘virtual london’, a project funded by the Greater London Authority and CASA, University College of London. the model was created as a tool to explore and test important ‘what if’ scenarios such as the city-wide impacts of population growth, large infrastructure projects, pollution and climate change, as well as visualise how different city systems overlap and interact. the client for ‘Virtual London’ is the Greater London Authority (GLA) and their aim is to develop improved dissemination of planning information ref 11 this would enable data to be manipulated far more flexibly than at present - for example, rather than having to use population figures measured within arbitrary administrative boundaries such as postcodes, designers could have access to data from an exact area selected from the model. this thematic decomposition of the city and the attributive augmentation of theses objects is beginning to close the gap towards true rather than token participation possibilities “the core model is aimed to be distributed via the Internet utilising techniques to optimise large urban data sets for broadband distribution” (CASA, no date). however this has not been possible thus far as according to michael batty the ownership of Virtual London is a very complicated issue. there are several vendors who have contributed money and data or donated software to this big project, including CASA, Greater London Authority, Ordnance Survey, Infoterra, ESRI, London Connects etc. in 2007 the Virtual London team formally admitted defeat. The Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis reported on its blog that “our Virtual London model will not be appearing in Google Earth due to data licensing issues”. the decision “puts a stop to six years of research to openly inform the public about changes to London’s built form via a publicly accessible model”.

london air virtual map

figure 28

oxides of nitrogen - annual measure - 3d zones

oxides of nitrogen - annual measure - aerial photo

an example of a live and public version of this model can be seen on the london air website where a 3D model shows air pollution across 63 sq km (9km x 7km) of central London. It allows users to visualise air pollution in the areas that they work, live or walk. pollution concentrations are shown for 2003 and predictions of future air quality can be viewed to 2010 clearly showing the improvements arising from air quality abatement measures. transport planners can use the model to identify the most polluted parts of London and urban planners will be able to see how building density affects pollution concentrations in the City and other high density areas. however neither group can adapt or test scenarios in the model to see impacts of their propostions. although even if this was possible it is only a single data stream extracted from the multiude of layers necassary to consider. an intelligent model is needed which brings greater precision becoming a 4D model when factors of environment and socio-economic information are incorporated.

05 what makes the current generation of digital 3D models, like virtual London and London air important is the notion that such models are databases that can store spatial urban data with their geographical referent being any coordinate system. In short, the new models are not simply the digital geometry of traditional models but large-scale data bases which can be viewed in 3D. the method advocated in this project alters the design path further by employing feed-back loops to refine design scenarios based on their forecasted outcomes .prior to execution. There are obvious limitations to this method, whereby you cannot predict the future, however, the informed decisions made resultant from the method are superior to uninformed decisions.

curre

revi

ent design path

ised design loop

coding the city

this feedback is assisted by the digital method employed to make the models. Di of the schemes. This also allows the analysis and reports to be ex for this project rules extracted from precedent areas are coded into the regulations can be coded as rules to limit the models wi

igital coding is used to create the scenarios , facilitating quick and easy updating xtracted directly from the model, enhancing the feedback loop. model, however, this technique could also be applied to planning policies.the ithin the policy, ie height in this area cannot fo over 30m.

cit city 05

leve

city geography markup language (citygml) has b information system (gis) data standard to represe of buildings in digital 3D city models. an example Levels of Detail (LoDs) in order to provide the resolu through coding the city models these levels of different detail for dif

levels o

LoD 0

LoD 1

LoDLoD0 2

tygml gml

els of detail

been developed in recent years as a geographic ent the geometry and geographical information e of these standards is the modeling on various e possibility of representing objects in different ution. of detail can be applied , allowing the extraction fferent types of analysis.

of detail

LoD 1 LoD 3

city gml levels of detail

LoD 2

LoD 4

LoD 3

05 1 1

3 3

2d infrastructure openstreetmap data

2 2

3d streets, parcels, lots derived from precedent

3d building derived from

2d infrastructure openstreetmap data

3d streets, parcels, lots derived from precedent

3d building derived from

modeling stages

the m ardwic of the follow buildin to leve

g extrusions m precedent

4 4

5 5

texturing and facade details derived from precedent

report and compare outcomes coded analysis

g extrusions m precedent

texturing and facade details derived from precedent

report and compare outcomes coded analysis

models are coded according to these stages, the 2d infrastructure currently present in ck is retained as the base of the model as well as the train tracks and depo in the centre e site. further subdividing roads are then constructed based on the precedent site networks. wing this the lots are then subdivided into the appropriate parcel size to determine the ng which will the be extruded from it based on height and set-back codes. details to bring el of detail 3 are then added to improve visualisation of the area. consequently the models are analysed and compared

section 6

method -

analysis

STEP

01 02 03

undertake multi-natured analysis

describe the results observed. Includes the visualizing of information over the model, tab aid in interpretation of data.

propose explanations for any differences found between observations and compare w extracting successful attributes

describe questions and issues which arise with scheme due to results

edit and evolve designs to improve on issues

bles, charts or dia-grams to

with other proposals

analysis

results

interpretationinterpretation

??? questions questions

analysis strategy

the models created will then be analysed as an exemplary project of the capability of the forecasting method described by this project. as described earlier the multifaceted nature of the urban and its influences requires in depth analysis into the spatial city, the social city, and the environmental city as one mutually dependent assemblage. following the production and coding of the digital models the process of the forecasting method would run as the diagram depicts.

adaption

feedbackfeedback

for the purposes of this project of large scale transformations over ardwick analysis has been split into two categories, environmental and socio-economic effectors. The socioeconomic influences are obviously more loosely integrated as they are subjective and based on theories of impacts and cannot be as accurately forecasted.

If more time was permitted for this project it would evolve to look at how to more successfully gauge and analyses the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;softerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; socio-economic layers which most desperately need to be addressed within ardwick, such as employment and education. this project advocates that spatial factors contribute to all of these attributes and should thus be considered when designing. the image beside shows the intended layers of analysis for this project, unfortunately due to time constraints they were limited. however, the potential of the analysis is made apparent through this pilot project.

layers of analysis

potential map layers

clude space syntax, socio-economic and environmental factors.

solar radiation

sunlight

using cumulative insolation analysis displays the distribution and availability of solar radiation over building or even city block. this could be particularly useful when considering shading requirements or assessing the best areas to place photovoltaics for maximum collection. Solar radiation affects thermal comfort, which is itself linked to personal health factors (medical, psychological, sociological and situational), as such a valid factor when considering social influences as well as sustainable design. absorbed solar radiation is converted to thermal energy (eg the solar heat gain factor (shgf) (W/ m2) ) as such the analysis can also be fed into a calculation for heating energy requirements to design buildings that are which maximize insolation in the winter months minimizes it in the summer for passive solar design .

cognizence of the sun angles is imperative in designing for sun access and penetration into interior spaces. Faces of the building receive differing amounts and quality of light depending on their orientation, time of year and time of day. Building layouts can be programmed and optimised to take advantage of solar quality.

Solar radiation and sunlight analysis can be carried out on the ground surface or of building planes for direct analysis. For this project both possibilities have been demonstrated

environment analysis

The chosen attributes through the model w

sound

air

the motivation for new urbanism brings with it potential challenges that designers may not have been forced to consider in the past including acoustics. with growing population densitys comes exposure to more occupant noise and less control over its production. Exposure to noise from transportation sources, environmental noise, can cause annoyance and sleep disturbance; both of which are proven to impact on quality of life and health effects. the tool implemented in this project can predict and analyze the threat that noise can have on a project site and proposed building by accounting for various environmental noise sources and local terrain. Identifying the noise level at the exterior of the building allows for further analysis to determine the anticipated noise level within the building due to the environmental noise. Together these analysis methods allow the design team to make strategic decisions about where to locate necessary sound insulation and how to save project costs in nonessential locations.

airflow fluctuation is an important factor affecting indoor thermal environments and human thermal response. in this study, dynamic airflows were generated to visualise temperatures and flows, helping to avoid issues such as wind tunnels on large scales. consideration of air flow can reduce or increase the design temperature of air-conditioning system can be increased and the amount of energy consumption can be reduced dramatically.

s of environmental analysis are solar radiation, sunlight air and acoustics . each attribute is digitally analysed with visual and data outputs which could be used to judge urban and building layouts and designs

06 energy - heating demand simula

The environmental data pre-processing can be taken a step further and input to a heating demand ca saving potentials and enhance sustainability. These energy indices could assist energy planners and munici refurbishment priorities, as well as the development of a long-term urban energy st They can also employed to; a- compare the energy performance of various design alternatives for a planned b level of energy performance of existing; c- assess the effect of possible energy conservation measures on an of the energy use with and without the energy conservation measure.

The building energy needs for heating and cooling of the building are calculated on the basis of the heat ba zones using the quasistatic monthly energy balance algorithm (standardised in germany with the din 18599 a its limited input requirements are compatible with a 3d city model, while its robust and reasonably accurate energy standard organisations . moreover, the computing time of this heating demand calculation is well s long-term urban energy scenarios for districts with thousands of buildings.

Within this project standard building typologies are used to represent factors such as the u values in the calc depth details of faĂ§ade construction and heating systems would be included for more Furthermore, from the standard din 18599, some simplifications and adaptations have been made, eg. every thermal zone due to processing time, moreover, internal gains or air change rates are fixed ratio relative to liv building usage and building age. (The calculations for this can be found in â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;manufactureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;)

ation

alculation to help identify energy ipal managers in the definition of trategy. building; b- display a standardised n existing building, by calculation

annual energy needs for space heating and cooling

length of heating and cooling season

auxiliary energy use for heating, cooling systems

alance of the building or building and in Europe with the iso 13790). e algorithm is used worldwide by suited to generate and compare

monthly values of energy needs and energy use

culation. However, in practice in e accuracy. building is modelled with a single ving area, depending only on the

contribution of renewable energy sources

06 socio-economic analysis urban analysis has been defined as the use of multidisciplinary knowledge and skills with the objective of solving urban problems, as such all urban problems should be considered during design including economic, behavioural and cultural issues. there now exists a multitude of evidence that the urban environment specifically impacts on these subjective attributes. for example studies examining the relationship between mental health and the built environment and neighbourhoods have found that poor mental health is associated with: housing type (e.g. high-rise housing), poor housing quality and the internal environment (damp, warmth etc), crowding and neighbourhood noise, the physical attributes of the environment (such as derelict buildings, green space), perceived neighbourhood problems (such as fear of crime), and limited opportunities for social participation. By attempting analysis of what design factors are associated with these negative influences processes can be improved and gradually systems of urban design can augment to try to improve all aspects of life. it is acknowledged that these subjective layers of analysis cannot be quantitatively measured and only through theories can they be compared. However, through growing analysis of current situations gradually more evidence can substantiate theories and allow the integration of new socioeconomic influences into design practice.

06 space syntax network analysis

due to the unquantifiable nature of subjective analysis , the ‘soft’ analysis are based on existing well researched syntax regarding networks and integration land use division which is critical to social/spatial segregation. in rece analysis techniques have been applied to urban masterplanning and there are now many tried and tested t can be used to quantify the characteristics of each link or space in an urban network. These measures hav correlate to human health, land values, town centre vitality, pedestrian flows, land use, traffic volumes, acciden can provide valuable insights into the performance of a masterplan proposal.

space syntax is a theory of space and a set of analytical, quantitative and descriptive tools for analysing the l buildings and cities. Originating in the Bartlett School of Architecture, University College London in the 1970s, attempt to develop a method to systematically model and measure spatial form to see if there was an underl explanation for the social failure of 20th century English housing estates. The hope was that by learning to desc different kinds of spatial configuration, or pattern, in the city –it would be possible to detect any influence there m factors in the construction of these spatial patterns and also to explore any consequences there might be in te life could and did take place.

space syntax research into the charles booth maps has found that socially or economically marginalized individua patterns of settlement and that underlying these patterns were spatial conditions that may have influence detailed spatial analysis found that interruptions to the grid structure significantly influenced the spatial configura area, giving rise to conditions of spatial and social segregation. booth produced the first study of the detail of poverty and wealth, with ‘poverty maps’ in the 1880s as ‘social cartography’ where different colours on the streets indicated the income and class of inhabitants. Ev looks at Booth’s map shows a distribution of prosperity to poverty in a pattern that closely follows the sequen avenue to road, street, alley, court, yard, to dead-end and slum. booth frequently noted in his writing that ph such as railways had the effect of isolating areas, walling off their inhabitants and isolating them from the life o only the fine-scale layout which seems to have had an impact on social conditions, creating pockets of irregu grid. larger scale obstacles in the urban fabric worsened the ability of people to move around and improve economic conditions.

d theory by space ent years, network techniques which ve been shown to nts and crime, and

layout of space in it started with an lying architectural cribe and analyse might be on social erms of how social

als follow distinctive ed this distribution. ation of a poverty

s an early form of ven the briefest of nce of square and hysical boundaries of the city. It is not ularity in the urban e their social and

06 usage zoning ‘the district, and indeed as many of its internal parts as possible, must serve more than one primary function; preferably more than two. these must insure the presence of people who go outdoors on different schedules and are in the place for different purposes, but who are able to use many facilities in common’ (Jacobs, 1961)

jane jacobs an author/activist expresses the importance of people appearing at different times of day on a city street. she considers time on a small scale, specifically hour by hour, explaining how constant activity throughout the day is vital and this is achieved through diversity of uses, opposing large scale zoning. In chapters of her book ‘death and the life of great american cities’, it is explained how important this is for sidewalk safety and public parks, among other things (Jacobs, 1961). however, her main point of observation is its economic benefit. even though Jacobs states that ‘the more complexity and variety of primary uses that can be cultivated, the better’ she does express that the ‘desirability of segregating dwellings from work’ is a problem stating that ‘residential districts lacking mixture with work do not fare well in cities’ (Jacobs, 1961). accordingly this project reports and analyses the ratios of different uses of the three scenarios to see how well they perform at creating these diverse ecosystems which jacobs describes as necessary for thriving cities.

ardwick land-use map

residential green-space industrial civil buildings figure 30

the sce

enarios

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mixed use

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120

semi-detached

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130 terrace

7% public gren-space

res i fallowfield

extracting rules

70 main â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;avenuesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; espousing cul-de-sacs

120 short dead-end streets

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4800 7500

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8 storey mixed-use

6000 tower

10% public - greenspace

mixed i westminster

lot area m2

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regular grid pattern

mixed i westminster

large plot sizes

extracting rules

4 stories

0 street set-back

13 height

2250 footprint

s orientation

cambridge steet, westminster

high rise i perimeter block

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6 stories

2 street set-back

20 height

1750 footprint

s orientation

page street, westminster

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green to build %

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0 street set-back

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1600 footprint

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the global integration reports illustrate assumed heaviy traffic flow along hyde and stockport road within the low-rise scenario . the red colour suggests the width of these roads are not great enough to sustain the amount of supposed ‘traffic’. however , when it is considered that this network is representative fully of residential properties it seems unlikely in reality to face such extreme traffic, exposing a flaw in the space sytax theory, whereby uses of buildings need to be factored in

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the in between centrality analysis exposes devonshire street as a low performer for jane jacobs criteria for ‘short streets’ within the highrise scenario. the long streches are considered to interrupt the ‘natural flow’ of movement and lead to things such as increased crime rates

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the high level of blue in concentrated areas of the ardwick model suggest ‘ideal’ circumstances for pedestrian traffic, choice. however, when looked at in a broader context it can be seen to focus in specific area whilst others are sparse and unsuited for footfall. in the wider scheme it appears that low-rise option fulfills the most criteria for jane jacobs ‘sucessful city’

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LOW-RISE

ZONING

HIGH-RISE

ARDWICK

46 %

89 %

% industrial

% residential

the models were coded to colour and send reports according to their usage. this displayed the high concentration, 89% of residential in the low rise city, which does what jane jacobs warns against and segregates residential from work. the high rise city reports the greatest mix of uses, however, they too are in concentrated zones within the wider area. as such in this respect current ardwick appears to fit jacobs criteria best in amalgamating uses. however, when considering almost half of these uses are industrial they seem less like to â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;intensify activityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; in these areas. accordingly the suggestion derived from this would be to add more commercial and office areas within the current ardwick model to create a diverse ecosystem for economic actviity. the model also sepaates the building into separate floors to report the gfa and far to aid in planning calculations and density models

environmental analysis

smaller porti would obsc to undergo

shadow range winter and summer solstice (9am-6pm)

ardw

ions of the models and their response to environmetal conditions were analysed as viewing such a large scale cure the data and require too high calculation times. as such typical samples of each model were selected analysis. this process could be undergone on and even smaller scale looking at each building individually for increased accuracy.

wick

analysis summary

- ardwick

winter

% shaded

total sunlight hours

vector rate

air flow

acoustic reverberation

environmental analysis shadow range winter and summer solstice (9am-6pm)

low-

-rise

analysis summary

- low rise r

summer winter

% shaded

total sunlight hours

residential

vector rate

air flow

acoustic reverberation

environmental analysis shadow range winter and summer solstice (9am-6pm)

high-ris

analysis summary

- high rise m

summer winter

% shaded

total sunlight hours

mixed use

vector rate

air flow

acoustic reverberation

analysis comparison

total sunlight hours total sunlight hours summer winter synopsis

as to be expected the denser high rise city recieves the least sunlight hours at eye view level.

however the dramatic nature of the winter hours exposes just how much the city scape blocks light from streets.

%summer shaded this analysis on a smaller scale or comparing specific building schemes could aid in adapting placement orientation and form.

% winter shaded

the current a model is surpringly shaded even in th residential zones. possibly due to d

ardwick heavily he lower this is density.

air flow

the air flow rate exposes the significance of the heights in blocking the natural airflow, with the higher end of highrise on the right it can be seen to cause dramatic change in the flows

acoustic reverberation once again the result is as expected with more echo and reverberation levels in the denser areas. however, when this analysis is applied with textures on the model great accuracy of estimating acoustics can be achieved

shadow range

the shadow range taken throughout solstice days produces results as expected. overall in response to the environment and creating light and warm spaces

the lowrise model appears to be the best option. this obviously isnt practical for all designs but shows how drastically the urban affects the built environment.

summer

winter

energy required

using the quasistatic monthly energy estimate for the energy required for implemented in the two hypothet information form the model coupled w (seen below) is put into the algorithm calculations) to generate and com in this respect the high-rise scenario out this is using just using these 4 sample typ permitting the data of each individu algorithm for specifi

terraced - rendered block

125.5 kwh/(m2a) semi-detached - double brick

86.5 kwh/(m2a) detached (2 storey - blockwork)

81.5 kwh/(m2a)

for heating qh,nd

y balance algorithm, iso 13790 an heating each of the 4 typologies tical scenarios. the geometrical with incident solar radiation analysis (refer to â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;manufactureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; booklet for mpare urban energy scenarios. tperforms the lowrise by mere 0.03%, pologies. obviously in practice, time ual building would be fed into the fic calcualtions. ref 12

semi-detached brick & block

152.5 kwh/(m2a) apartments blockwork

129.6 wh/(m2a)

green to build %

8 stories

0 street set-back

height

1600 footprint

sw orientation

howic

tower concrete

129.6 wh/(m2a) steel frame block

green to build %

stories

66.4 kwh/(m2a) perimeter concrete

110.8 wh/(m2a)

6 2

height

1750 footprint

street set-back

orientation

green to build %

4 stories

0 street set-back

page

13 height

2250 footprint

s orientation

cambridge s