VOLATILITY

How One Word From Math Impacts Your Individual Play Session

Recently, I’ve been listening to a lot of players discussing how every time they have a play session at video poker, their bankroll is decimated, how they can’t hit a four-ofa-kind, and their general increased frustration level with video poker.

I get it. I do. I hear you. You are not alone. It happens to me too. While occasionally I may be able to perform the function of coach/mentor/spiritual guide on the casino floor, other times I think I can best serve readers with the blunt hammer of math.

Let’s define the word volatility. The dictionary comes up with “Unstable & potentially dangerous, unpredictable & fickle, changing suddenly, short-lived” even “prone to evaporation” when referring to a volatile substance. Since we are talking about science, let’s focus on math for a moment and define volatility in that context.

A statistical measure of the dispersion of data around its mean over a certain period of time. It's calculated as the standard deviation multiplied by the square root of the number of periods of time.

What does that mean? Why should I care? Every casino game has an expected long run average outcome. That’s how the casino makes money after all! However, us video poker players are looking for that edge over the casino, or to at least make the edge as small as possible, by playing perfect strategy, finding the highest paying pay tables (as close to 100% as we can get), and using a player’s club card to earn rewards. That’s our mean.

What I’d like to show you is what happens to the average pay back percentage (the mean) when accounting for volatility of popular video poker games when we play those games. All of us players know certain video poker pay tables provide certain experiences. I don’t think I have to explain the difference in the experience of playing Jacks or Better (JOB) as opposed to Double Double (DD) and Trible Double (TD) to our readers.

Whether you know some math about those three video poker games or not, in having played them, JOB has a top win of the Royal Flush along with less than ten other wins. DD has several top wins and TD has two sweet top wins and several other high paying wins. This all impacts the standard deviation, and therefore the volatility, of the game!

Let’s use the average casino JOB pay table of 7 / 5 (Full House / Flush) with a return to player (RTP), or mean, of around 96.15%, a standard deviation (SD) of 4.38 and a volatility index (VI) of around 11.30. Plus, the average casino DD pay table of 7 / 5 with a RTP of around 95.71% a SD of 6.49 and a VI of around 16.75. And finally, the average casino TD pay table of 7 / 5 with a RTP of around 94.92% a SD of 10.04 and a VI of around 25.91.

If you were to play just 1,000 hands on each of the three pay tables in a play session, the JOB game would have an average RTP range from 60 to 131%. That means, over time, on average, a 1,000 hand session could be as harsh as a 40% house hold! The DD game would have a range from 43 to 149%! With TD, the range widens even more from 14 to 178%!

Now, I know some of you love those extra bet games like Ultimate X, Ultimate X multi-hand, Super Times Pay, Double Super Times Pay, Dream Card, Powerhouse, and so on. I think you know what happens to the SD on those games as you increase your bet to open up chances at multipliers, right? You got it! The SD goes up. And, then the VI goes up as well. That means the RTP range opens up as well. If you want a flatter video poker experience, go back to one hand JOB. Otherwise, accept the volatility. After all, the volatility also brings the big wins. And that’s reflected when an increased VI opens the RTP range up on the top end as well.

You can send me an email if you want to know how to hold a hand! Doesn't matter if it’s holds you are seeing other people make, or if you just want to be sure about your own holds. Ask me any video poker question, regardless of what it’s about! You can email Editor@AZGamingGuide.com, or mail your letter to: Editor, AZ Gaming Guide, PO BOX 20636, Mesa, AZ, 85277. $