MANAGING PRESEASON FOOTBALL Tackling Power Ratings & Rankings

The 2023 NFL® Preseason is upon us! And for Arizona football fans, that’s as expected and constant as tripledigit scorchers in August. We will also anticipate arguments over the power rankings of NFL teams as they change after each game, injury report, and trade.

If you don’t know what power ratings and rankings are, don’t fret. Some juggernaut mathematical wizards calculated a dozen factors a few decades ago, including wins and losses, points for, points against, injuries, and trades to make weekly lists. The highest power ranking is 1 for the best team and 32 for the worst.

Unfortunately, there is no exact translation of a team’s numbers to what they will score in a game, as the first-round totals of the 2023 playoffs show with each team’s power ranking and the actual outcome:

Team Ranking OpponentRanking RESULT

Chargers 8 Jaguars 10 Jaguars by 1 Ravens 9 Bengals 2 Bengals by 7 Dolphins 15 Bills 1 Bills by 3 Giants 9 Vikings 7 Giants by 7 Cowboys 6 Buccaneers 17 Cowboys by 17 Seahawks 12 49ers 5 49ers by 18

However, you can use preseason power rankings listed by Sports Illustrated, ESPN, The Sporting News, and others to help you see how two teams are likely to stack up against each other. And you can compare the preseason odds of each team winning the Super Bowl® as similar guidance. Those odds are influenced by fan bases (popular teams get more action), but they will be similar to power rankings from best to worst and lowest odds to highest odds against going all the way.

Using the rankings to pick winners seems easy, but the point spreads will reflect those differences. You may have a good bet when a team gets points or a positive money line and they have a better power ranking. Check the latest injury report!

Rudimentary Point Scores to Predict NFL Game Winners

You can find how many points teams are scoring each week in the scores/schedules part of many websites. Those totals show how teams develop or cope with injuries (or demanding schedules). Teams with consistent scores each week are the most reli- able. Those with severe highs and lows are scary to wager on and best to avoid.

In addition to power rankings, I take the last five weeks and write a team’s scores in ascending order (For example: 10, 14, 16, 23, 27). Then, I take the middle number (16 in this case). Next, I take the points allowed to get a new mean average. Then, I combine them for a positive or negative number. Let’s assign +2 to home team A.

I always add three points to the home team, taking team A to +5. Then I compare the numbers for their opponent. For this example, let’s assign +1 to visiting team B.

Teams with more wins get an extra point for each. If team A has two extra wins, they get +2, taking them to +7. Subtracting team B’s +1, I expect team A to be a +6 favorite. It’s not perfect, but it’s helpful.

Sportsbooks have more information than we do, but comparing the power rankings and a rudimentary point spread with how teams should match up is always valuable information to consider! $

Writer Al Moe has worked in the casino industry for many years. He has lived and worked in Las Vegas, Reno, and Lake Tahoe. He also attended the University of Nevada, Reno. He is an avid writer and blogger. His book, “Vegas and the Mob," is available online at Amazon.com. He is also the proud father of four beautiful girls.