Technology will never again develop as slowly as it does today

Humanity has a problem. Nowadays, technologies are changing so fast that many of us feel overwhelmed by them. The reason: For thousands of years, progress was linear – the world barely changed over generations. However, these days everything is developing exponentially at an increasingly rapid pace. And the human brain is not used to this speed. Or just not yet?

Text: Dr. Michael Jäger

People prefer stability. Yet the world is anything but stable. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity have become features of our modern age. However, technologies are not created overnight. Years, if not decades of research and development are required for this purpose. Exponential growth requires time at first, before a technology suddenly reveals its resounding potential, seemingly from one day to the next, and spawns drastic changes. A classic example is our daily companion, the smartphone. Nowadays it is algorithms, which are developed by a handful of specialists, that decide how we communicate with each other or which advertising we see.

THE ANSWER TO VUCA IS VUCA VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity which have become features of our modern world. It describes the difficult framework conditions, for example, in corporate management. And the answer to VUCA is in turn VUCA: but this time, the letters stand for Vision, Understanding, Clarity and Agility.

A technology alone, however, is not sufficient to develop a solution

Meanwhile, technology convergence makes possible almost everything which until now seemed like science fiction, even in our daily lives. Convergence is the combination of two or more technologies which to date have developed separately from each other. If they are interconnected, they give rise to new solutions. For example, the connection between artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) will bring about an efficiency in business processes and reduce CO2 emissions. As a result of these technology combinations, people will experience more progress over the next decade than in the last 100 years. Not one sector, not even the Armed Forces, will be spared from the change which the convergence of technologies has accelerated.

Ethical Aspects In The Application Of Technology

It is not the technology alone that is decisive, but rather what is possible with the combination of technologies. And it is not the technology itself that is controversial, but its application: artificial intelligence is all well and good when used in the diagnosis of cancer, but not when used with autonomous weapon systems.

Building the right mindset: Army4.0

The mindset behind Army4.0 is an important step towards the future. In addition to organisational and cultural changes, such as heightening appeal, these include the increase in willingness over time. But also to address the challenges of the 21st century quickly and effectively and to develop capability management. However, it is often difficult enough to define the skills we will need in five years. This applies not only to society, but also to the Armed Forces. How will we manage to build up the skills that will be relevant in twenty years? One key element is strategic technology management.

The goal of technology management at armasuisse S+T is to transfer the technological developments to the time axis. These technology roadmaps help, among other things, to make the most appropriate decision during procurements and to derive various possible future scenarios.

How armasuisse S+T runs technology management

One key principle of technology management for Army4.0 lies in the question: “Which technologies can be used to achieve the military capabilities required in the future?” This fundamental question places the future challenges of the Armed Forces in the focus of further development. It is not the technology alone that is decisive, but rather what is possible with the combination of these technologies and how they support the Armed Forces in exercising their abilities. Various methods are used to achieve realistic results. These methods of technology management include roadmapping, think tank impulses, environmental and expert workshops, exchange with industry and monitoring. These methods are embedded in the technology management cycle.

Three Examples Of Outputs From Technology Management

1. Technology roadmaps

– Focusing on knowledge and making it visible

– Developing shared ideas

– Chance to compare with third parties (Industry Exchange Days)

Basis for strategic roadmaps and impulse papers

2. Impulse papers

Out-of-the-box ideas

– Based on technological trends (such as forecasting) or expertise

– Current, relevant and independent

– Input for innovation projects

3. Strategic roadmaps

Why: Trends, security policy aspects, politics

What: Applications

How: Technologies, resources

To simply do nothing and hope that everything will still be the same in twenty years would be irresponsible. That is why armasuisse S+T is researching together with the Armed Forces on topics of the future. Let us therefore prepare ourselves for future challenges together and try to keep pace with technological change. For the current and future security of Switzerland.

Dr Michael Jäger has been working as a scientific project manager at