Opinion

Queensland some time between August and October.

Senior climatologist Brad Jackson says the bureau is still waiting for atmospheric conditions to catch up to the warming sea temperatures before declaring El Nino – but says it is possible El Nino could be declared as early as next month.

“It’s hard to predict when that atmosphere is going to respond, creating the weather patterns for El Nino,” he says.

“We will monitor and see how it responds and as soon as we meet the criteria, we’ll be sure to announce that (El Nino) as soon as possible to help people prepare.”

The bureau expects that if El Nino does develop, Queensland will receive minimal rainfall throughout spring and summer, particularly in western parts of the state.

While every El Nino is unique in character, it traditionally leads to lessthan-average rainfall as well as above-average temperatures, with the potential to “repeat for years”, Brad says. “If we do develop an El Nino system over winter and (it continues) into spring and summer, by (the following) winter that can break down, and again rebuild afterwards,” he says.

“Traditionally, El Nino events might occur three years running; the millennium drought gives us a clear indication of that.

“We had a triple La Nina – that is unusual but not unheard of, roughly happening every 20 years since the 1950s – so it’s possible.” ElNinoleadstoless-than-averagerainfallandhighertemperatures.

MARK FURNER Minister for Agricultural Industry Development and Fisheries and Minister for Rural CommuNITIES