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Battery metals: Behind the boom
EDUCATION OVERVIEW
Battery metals: Behind the boom
They’re the hot ticket item on the Aussie markets at the moment, for some obvious – and some not-soobvious reasons. Here’s a look at why everyone’s going gangbusters for our battery metals.
Peter Strachan
PETER STRACHAN
The International Renewable Energy Agency reports that installed costs of utility scale photovoltaic power generation (PV) fell by 81 percent in the decade to 2020, and costs for large scale wind generation are also plummeting as individual, offshore turbines spread fixed cost over 15-megawatt units.
The key to integrating intermittent, rebuildable generation capacity into a power grid is grid-scale storage capacity! Rapid electrification of everything requires power storage using gravity, solid state, stored hydrogen manufacture, flow battery chemistries, thermal storage, flywheel and even the 161-year-old lead-acid battery.
Rapid battery technological evolution seems certain, adding complexity to choices around which raw materials will benefit the most.
Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery chemistries have a firm foothold for booming electric vehicle (EV) and mobile equipment markets. Rapid technological advance and economies of scale have reduced Li-ion battery costs by 97 per cent since 1991. Hot on its heels, cheaper sodium-ion (Na-ion) battery is beginning to make inroads as its energy density rises. Cheaper and thermally stable Na-ion batteries may find application for short distance transport and grid scale stationary power storage, where their extra weight is not an issue.
Low hanging fruit in this area remains the electrification of transport. Electric vehicles have adopted Li-ion battery chemistries, while several battery technologies are in use or in development to compete for stationary power storage. South Australia’s Hornsdale Li-ion battery can store 193.5 megawatt hours of power and deliver up to 150 megawatts into the grid.
Demand for lithium carbonate looks set to jump by an eye-watering 10-fold by the late 2030s from current market of +500,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent pa, with supply shortfalls predicted, all of which should support lithium pricing over coming decades. Current contract pricing for lithium carbonate sits at around US$46-$50 per kilogram, with spot sales at up to US$73/Kg, a 10-fold increase on pricing nadir of early 2020.
Sulphates of nickel, cobalt and manganese find application in the cathodes of about 45% of Li-ion batteries, but lithium, iron, phosphate (LFP) batteries have become a mainstay for Tesla EVs with other marques likely to follow. Despite this trend, demand for nickel and cobalt in battery cathode application, is expected to growth through the 20s and 30s, providing price support as the bulk of metal demand is driven by traditional industrial activity cycles.
All Li-ion and Na-ion batteries require purified, spherical graphite for anodes, which sees graphite demand set to increase from 400,000 tonnes per annum at a pace of 17 per cent per annum through until 2040. Application of carbon allotrope graphene in battery technologies could further expand underpinning graphite demand beyond existing industrial applications.
Flow battery chemistries, like vanadium redox and zinc bromide, store power in electrolyte as it passes through the battery chamber, offering long-lived, efficient, and thermally stable storage over extended periods. Expansion of application would have a demand impact for zinc and vanadium into the 2030s and beyond.
2022 Tesla Model Y RWD and Hyundai Ioniq 5 RWD
“Volkswagen Group Center of Excellence” battery cell research center in Salzgitter, Germany
QUICK FACTS
Key cathode metals used in Li-ion batteries include sulphates of nickel and cobalt along with manganese.
Anodes for all types of solid-state batteries require graphite, while the electrolyte is made up of the carbonate or hydroxide of lithium. Lead, vanadium and zinc are used in other battery technologies and chemistries.
