Urban Expansion Analysis focused on Infrastructure Investments
Case Study: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Practicum Problem by Jorge L. Ventura O. Committee: Dr. John Browder | Dr. Ralph P. Hall | Dr. Yang Zhang Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Spring 2014
Urban Expansion Analysis focused on Infrastructure Investments Case Study: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic Jorge Luis Ventura Ovalles Practicum Problem report submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING
Dr. John Browder, Chair Dr. Ralph P. Hall Dr. Yang Zhang College of Architecture and Urban Studies School of Public and International Affairs Department of Urban Affairs and Planning Blacksburg, Virginia Spring 2014
Table of Contents page
CHAPTER 1 -
List of Maps, Figures, and Tables
01
Acknowledgements
03
THE PROBLEM
05
Section 1.1 - Context Section 1.2 - The Task: Predicting Urban Expansion in Santo Domingo Section 1.3 - Approach: Key Infrastructure Investments as a Trigger for Urban Expansion Section 1.4 - Methodology
CHAPTER 2 -
STUDY AREA
Section 2.1 - Location Section 2.2 - The Metropolitan Region
CHAPTER 3 -
A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF URBAN EXPANSION
Section 3.1 - Population Growth Section 3.2 - Key Infrastructure Investments Section 3.3 - Urban Expansion
CHAPTER 4 -
PREDICTING FUTURE URBAN EXPANSION
Section 4.1 - Population Projections Section 4.2 - Future Infrastructure Investments Section 4.3 - Future Urban Expansion
CHAPTER 5 -
CONSEQUENCES
Section 5.1 - Urban Management Issues
CHAPTER 6 -
CONCLUSIONS
Section 6.1 - Conclusions Section 6.2 - Policy Recommendations References Data Sources
05 05 05 06 07 07 07 15 15 16 20 24 24 25 28 30 30 33 33 34 37 39
List of Maps, Figures, and Tables
MAPS Map 2.1.1 - The Dominican Republic in the Caribbean Map 2.1.2 - The Metropolitan Region Map 2.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Municipalities Map 2.2.2 - Metropolitan Region. Population Distribution Map 2.2.3 - Metropolitan Region. Population Density (High-density Core) Map 2.2.4 - Metropolitan Region. Dwelling Occupancy Rates Map 2.2.5 - Metropolitan Region. Percent households that own occupied unit Map 2.2.6 - Metropolitan Region. Percent households that rent occupied unit Map 2.2.7 - Metropolitan Region. Percent dwellings with no access to the sewage system Map 2.2.8 - Metropolitan Region. Percent dwellings with access to the public water system Map 2.2.9 - Metropolitan Region. Slopes Map 2.2.10 - Metropolitan Region. Watersheds Map 2.2.11 - Metropolitan Region. Hydrology Map 2.2.12 - Metropolitan Region. Geology Map 2.2.13 - Metropolitan Region. Protected Areas and Green Belt Map 2.2.14 - Metropolitan Region. Forest Cover Map 3.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Key Infrastructure Investments per decade Map 3.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion sequence (1956 - 2013) Map 3.3.2 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion tendency
page 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 18 20
Map 4.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion Areas 2023
23 27 27
Map 5.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Environmental Resources and Future Urban Expansion
31
Map 4.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Future Infrastructure Investments
FIGURES
page
Figure 3.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Population growth trends by decade
15
Figure 3.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Population Interpolation 1956-2013
20
Figure 3.3.2 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion 1956-2013
20
Figure 4.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Population Projections 2023 by municipality
24
Figure 6.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban footprint and population trends
33
TABLES Table 2.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Municipalities Table 2.2.2 - Metropolitan Region. Percent dwellings that are owned/rented. Table 3.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Total population estimates by decade Table 3.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. List of Key Infrastructure Investments per decade Table 3.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Population and Area 1956-2013 Table 4.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Population Projections 2023 by municipality Table 4.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Population Projections 2023 by municipality
page 08 09 15 16 20 24 25
1
Acknowledgements I would like to express my deep gratitude to Dr. John Browder, Dr. Ralph P. Hall, and Dr. Yang Zhang, my committee members, for their guidance and patience, encouragement and useful critiques in the initial steps of this capstone project. I would also like to thank Dr. Sonia Hirt, Dr. John Randolph, and Dr. Yang Shao, for transferring me the necessary knowledge which allowed me to complete this analysis. I wish to also thank my family for their support and encouragement throughout my project. Special thanks to my fellow graduate students for supporting and motivating me during the most difficult times. And finally, to MarivĂ Perdomo Caba for her invaluable insights and assistance in the layout design and structure of this document. Without their effort, the completion of the project would not have been possible.
3
Downtown Santo Domingo, Distrito Nacional
Source: www.skyscrapercity.com
Chapter 1 - The Problem
CHAPTER 1 - THE PROBLEM In planning, it is of great importance to clearly identify the problem to be addressed. In this chapter, the task, as stated by the capstone project committee, is presented and its implications analysed. Then, the approach taken to complete the task at hand is described. Finally, the methodology and logical sequence that is followed throughout the report is outlined.
Section 1.1 - Context Urban expansion is a phenomenon of great importance for any urban planner. According to the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, massive urbanization, accompanied by the rapid expansion of cities and metropolitan regions and the sprawling growth of megacities over the world, is one of the most important transformations of our planet (Angel 2012). Much of this explosive growth has been unplanned. The collision between the urban systems, where most of the human population lives, and the natural systems, that support life in our planet, has been everything but smooth. Cities in developing countries have been ill-prepared for to absorb the millions of rural poor who are crowding into informal settlements. These cities are now predicted to double their urban population in the next thirty years, and possibly triple their urban land area. It is clear that urban expansion is both a local and global concern. The expansion of a city is affected by numerous factors. Among these factors are population growth, population density, infrastructure investments, and economic growth. Over the last two decades, the urban population of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic has increased by approximately 45% (National Office for Statistics 2010). In order to advance the planning culture and efforts of a developing country like the DR, it is important for urban and regional planners to understand the role that the factors mentioned above have in defining the past and future of our cities.
Section 1.2 -
The Task: Predicting Urban Expansion in Santo Domingo
You have been contracted by the Santo Domingo Regional Planning Authority to complete a study of historical growth patterns in the metropolitan area and to predict the likely location of future growth based mainly on key infrastructure investments. In a report, using Geographic Information Systems as appropriate, map the historical geographic expansion of the Santo Domingo Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (the Metropolitan Region) on a decennial basis since 1950, noting the location of key physical infrastructure investments during this time frame. You must define and defend your choices of what types of infrastructure to consider, both physical and social. Based on the historical trends and known physical constraints, identify the top five areas of the Metropolitan Region that are likely to experience rapid growth due to metropolitan expansion over the next 10 years assuming known future infrastructure investments materialize. Identify the probable urban management issues that might arise if such projected expansion actually occurs. This task clearly defines three parts: (1) A retrospective analysis of the urban expansion patterns in the Metropolitan Region from 1950 to the present. (2) A prediction of the future urban expansion based on the historical behavior of the study area. (3) The identification of urban management issues that might arise if everything continues as planned. These three parts are overarched by the concept of [urban] infrastructure investments.
Section 1.3 -
Approach: Key Infrastructure Investments as a Trigger for Urban Expansion
Urban infrastructure is sometimes defined as the chief supporting force of the city: its road, bridge, and transit networks; its power and sewer lines and waste disposal facilities; its power systems; its public buildings; and its parks and recreation areas (Tarr 1984). These tend to be separated into two broad subsets: economic and social. Economic infrastructure includes roads, bridges, water and sewerage facilities, and energy distribution and telecom-
5
Chapter 1 - The Problem
munication networks whereas social infrastructure encompasses schools, universities, hospitals, public housing, prisons, parks (Mackay-Fisher 2003). Economic development and urbanization could not have occurred without infrastructure creation. Whether infrastructure follows or is followed by urban development still remains an open question not being addressed in this analysis. Although, the timing in which the city reacts to different infrastructure investments will depend on their type and magnitude. Also, in the case of Santo Domingo it is worth identifying and mentioning the role that different business leaders, politicians, and professionals play in the construction of important infrastructure investments and how the city-building process is affected by these groups’ decisions.
Section 1.4 - Methodology
Chapter 5 - Consequences: Highlights the key environmental characteristics of the five areas of rapid urban expansion identified in the previous chapter. It also, identifies probable urban management issues that might arise if this accelerated expansion does take place. Chapter 6 - Conclusions: Highlights the main points and draws conclusions about the population growth, infrastructure investments, and urban expansion of the Metropolitan Region. It also, presents concluding policy recommendations to address part of the urban management issues that the region exhibits in the present and might exhibit in the near future.
The structure of this report follows a logical sequence:
The methods being used for this practicum problem are:
Chapter 1 - The Problem: Describes the practicum problem in detail, the approach to be taken, and the methodology of the analysis.
• • •
Chapter 2 - Study Area: Exhibits the location of the Metropolitan Region at different geographic scales. In this chapter, the present jurisdictional boundaries, geographic extension, population, and key geographic features of the study area are described. Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion: Analyses the population growth trends of the study area from 1950 to the present. It also, lists, describes, and shows the location of key infrastructure investments on a decennial basis. In the end, the urban expansion patterns of the Metropolitan Region for a similar time frame are shown and described.
6
tween population growth trends and future infrastructure investments, and assumes that population projections and planned infrastructure investments do take place. It also, lists and shows the location of future infrastructure investments in the study area.
Chapter 4 - Predicting Future Urban Expansion: Based on historical population growth and urban expansion trends, and infrastructure effects on these factors, this chapter identifies the areas with the highest probability to experience an accelerated population increase during the next decade (20132023). The five areas identified in this chapter respond to the relation be-
• •
Literature review of the urban evolution of the study area. Consultation with local urban planners. Quantitative techniques (descriptive statistics, data extrapolation methods) for historical analyses and projections. Geographic Information Systems analyses and mapping. Remote Sensing techniques.
Chapter 2 - Study Area
CHAPTER 2 - STUDY AREA The location and definition of the study area dictates the boundaries of the project, the relevance of the specific location, the stakeholders involved in the process, and the context that shapes the planning process.
Section 2.1 - Location The Dominican Republic is located in the Caribbean and is the second biggest country in the Greater Antilles. It has a total extension of 48,046 km2 and a total population of 9,445,281 (National Office for Statistics, 2012).Its location is of great geostrategic importance within this region. The study area is commonly referred to as the Metropolitan Area and it is located in the mid-southern part of the Dominican Republic. This region is composed of mainly-urban population and hosts the capital city of the country, Santo Domingo de Guzmán (see Map 2.1.1 and 2.1.2 below).
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010 Map 2.1.2 - The Metropolitan Region
Section 2.2 - The Metropolitan Region The Metropolitan Region is consists of eight municipalities: Distrito Nacional, Santo Domingo Este, Santo Domingo Oeste, Santo Domingo Norte, Boca Chica, San Antonio de Guerra, Los Alcarrizos, and Pedro Brand1 (see Map 2.2.1 and Table 2.2.1). According to the National Office for Statistics (2010), the total population of the Metropolitan Region is 3,339,410, from which 48% are men and 52% are women. This total population represents 35% of the total national population. The total area occupied by the Metropolitan Region is 1,393.78 km2, representing only 2.90% of the country’s total area.
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010 Map 2.1.1 - The Dominican Republic in the Caribbean
1 English translation: National District, Eastern Santo Domingo, Western Santo Domingo, Northern Santo Domingo, Boca Chica, San Antonio de Guerra, Los Alcarrizos, and Pedro Brand.
7
Chapter 2 - Study Area
POPULATION ____________________________________________________________ INSIDE-OUT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION The Metropolitan Region concentrates almost 60% of its total population in its core municipalities (Santo Domingo Este and Distrito Nacional, see Map 2.2.2) which represent only 18% of the total area of the region. Adding to this core area, Santo Domingo Norte represents 28% of the Metropolitan Region’s territory and carries 16% of the total population. These three municipalities contain around 75% of the total population for the region and represent 45% of the metropolitan territory.
Map 2.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Municipalities.
Metropolitan Region - Municipalities MUNICIPALITY
AREA (km2)
POPULATION* DENSITY
Distrito Nacional
91.58
965,040
10,537.67
Santo Domingo Este
169.18
948,885
5,608.73
Santo Domingo Oeste
54
363,321
6,728.17
Santo Domingo Norte
387.92
529,390
1,364.69
Boca Chica
140.85
142,019
1,008.3
San Antonio de Guerra
283.69
43,963
154.97
Los Alcarrizos
45.18
272,776
6,037.54
Pedro Brand
221.38
74,016
334.34
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010 Table 2.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Municipalities
8
Map 2.2.2 - Metropolitan Region. Population Distribution.
Despite this population distribution, Santo Domingo Norte (1,364.69 people per km2) does not show a high density within the region due to its extensive land area. The Distrito Nacional (10,537.67 people per km2), Santo Domingo Oeste (6,728.17 people per km2), Los Alcarrizos (6,037.54 people per km2),
Chapter 2 - Study Area
Map 2.2.3 - Metropolitan Region. Population Density (High-density Core).
Map 2.2.4 - Metropolitan Region. Dwelling Occupancy Rates.
and Santo Domingo Este (5,608.73 people per km2) behave as a high-density core for the Metropolitan Region (see Map 2.2.3).
Table 2.2.2 - Metropolitan Region. Percent dwellings that are owned/rented.
HIGH DEMAND FOR RESIDENTIAL UNITS In the Metropolitan Region, there is a high demand for residential units due to the non-stop and accelerated increase of the population since the 1960s. The eight municipalities show occupancy rates for residential units between 80% and 91%. The highest demand pressure for residential units comes from the western municipalities which have the highest occupancy rates (see Map 2.2.4): Pedro Brand (91%), Santo Domingo Oeste (91%), and Los Alcarrizos (89%). OWNER/RENTER OCCUPIED DWELLINGS’ GAP BALANCED The gap between households that own the unit they inhabit and the ones that
Metropolitan Region - Owners/Renters MUNICIPALITY
OWNED DWELLINGS
RENTED DWELLINGS
Distrito Nacional
47%
48%
Santo Domingo Este
49%
44%
Santo Domingo Oeste
42%
52%
Santo Domingo Norte
54%
39%
Boca Chica
64%
26%
San Antonio de Guerra
64%
21%
Los Alcarrizos
53%
39%
Pedro Brand
59%
28%
Note: Dwellings not reflected in these percentages are vacant.
9
Chapter 2 - Study Area
rent is mostly balanced across the region. In five out of the eight municipalities, owners and renters each occupy around 50% of the available units (see Table 2.2.2). The remaining three municipalities show a substantial gap between owners and renters where the former is favored. The municipalities with the lowest population share and with the lowest population densities (Boca Chica, San Antonio de Guerra, and Pedro Brand) appear to be the same municipalities that show the highest percentage of households that own the units they inhabit (See Map 2.2.5). By looking at the spatial distribution of these municipalities it is noticeable that they are the only three that do not present a direct contact with the regional urban core, the Distrito Nacional. This pattern might have a relation with the lower housing unit costs associated with an increase in distance from the regional urban core. On the other hand, the percent of households that pay rent for the units they inhabit is more intense in three of the southern municipalities: Distrito Nacional, Santo Domingo Este, and Santo Domingo Oeste (see Map 2.2.6). In contrast to the owner-occupied units, these three municipalities Map 2.2.6 - Metropolitan Region. Percent households that rent occupied unit.
present the highest population densities in the region. Due to this, the cost of real estate is likely to be high thus driving people to rent instead of own. SEWAGE SYSTEM - UNDERSERVED PERIPHERY The sewage system for the region seems sufficient for the core urban areas but the periphery appears to be underserved. A graded pattern from high to low service is distinguishable from the core to the outer areas of the region. The underserved municipalities (Pedro Brand, San Antonio de Guerra, and Boca Chica) have only 5% of their dwellings with no access to a sewage system (see Map 2.2.7). These are the same municipalities with the lowest densities in the Metropolitan Region. MISMATCHED PUBLIC WATER SERVICE ACCESSIBILITY
10
Map 2.2.5 - Metropolitan Region. Percent households that own occupied unit.
Access to the public water service system is vital for public health. In the
Chapter 2 - Study Area
Map 2.2.7 - Metropolitan Region. Percent dwellings with no access to the sewage system.
Metropolitan Region, the relatively better served areas do not match with the areas of highest population and population densities. For instance, the population density for the Pedro Brand municipality is 334.34 inhabitants per km2 and has over 80% of its dwellings with access to the public water service system. On the other hand, Santo Domingo Norte has four times the density of Pedro Brand but less than 70% of the dwellings in this municipality have access to the public water service system (see Map 2.2.8). This does not mean that there are more dwellings in Pedro Brand with access to the water system; it means that there is a mismatch on where public water infrastructure accessibility has been enabled in relation to where there is more population density. In this case, despite being the municipality with the third highest total population in the region, many more dwellings in Santo Domingo Norte have been unserved with public water accessibility than any other municipality in the region.
Map 2.2.8 - Metropolitan Region. Percent dwellings with access to the public water system.
KEY ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES ____________________________________________________________ THE COAST The Metropolitan Region limits to the South with 68 km of Caribbean Sea coastline. This line contains cliffs, beaches, ports, piers, protected areas, and an airport. Along with its hydrologic system, the coastline represents one of the strongest natural features that structure this region. TOPOGRAPHY The Northwestern municipalities of the region such as Santo Domingo Norte and Pedro Brand show steep slopes; Santo Domingo Oeste and the northern part of the Distrito Nacional show mid-level slopes. The rest of the municipalities such as Santo Domingo Este, San Antonio de Guerra, and Boca Chica
11
Chapter 2 - Study Area
present basically plain slopes (see Map 2.2.9). Some important features on this region’s terrain are the East-West accentuated inland cliffs bisecting the Distrito Nacional, Santo Domingo Este, and Boca Chica. These cliffs estructure three terraces that are key features in the urban structure of the region’s metropolitan core. HYDROLOGY The hydrological systems for this region is conformed by four main watersheds: Coast, Brujuelas, Haina, and Ozama (see Map 2.2.10). The primary rivers in the region are the Ozama River (limiting the Distrito Nacional to the East and North), the Haina River (limiting Santo Domingo Oeste to the West), and the Brujuelas River (limiting San Antonio de Guerra to the East). In this region, there is a clear concentration of the superficial hydrologic network on the Northwestern municipalities such as Santo Domingo Norte, Los Alcarrizos, Santo Domingo Oeste, and Pedro Brand (see Map 2.2.11).
Slopes >20% 0%
Map 2.2.9 - Metropolitan Region. Slopes.
12
Image by: Victor Siladi
Chapter 2 - Study Area
GEOLOGY Almost two thirds of the Metropolitan Region’s territory is built on limestone and reef geological formations (see Map 2.2.12). These formations match at some level with the plain slopes seen in Map 2.2.9. The alluvium formations around the main rivers (Ozama, Isabela, and Haina) can be seen to the North of the Distrito Nacional and Santo Domingo Este, and to the West of Santo Domingo Oeste. A great proportion of Santo Domingo Norte and Los Alcarrizos is conformed by fluvial channels since these areas are the transition from steep slopes to relatively plain terrain. Another particularity of the geology in this region is the accumulation of volcanic formations within the municipality of Pedro Brand. These correspond with the steep slopes seen earlier in Map 2.2.9. The geological features, along with the slopes and the hydrological network, can be crucial factors for human settlements in a given area. These factors act as serious physical obstacles for urban expansion. Map 2.2.10 - Metropolitan Region. Watersheds.
13 Map 2.2.11 - Metropolitan Region. Hydrology.
Map 2.2.12 - Metropolitan Region. Geology.
Chapter 2 - Study Area
Denstiy 100% 0%
Map 2.2.13 - Metropolitan Region. Protected Areas and Green Belt.
PROTECTED AREAS The protected areas in the Metropolitan Region, together with its hydrological system, play an important role for its inhabitants by providing the necessary ecosystem services to maintain the territory.
14
Touching Santo Domingo Este, Santo Domingo Norte, and San Antonio de Guerra is the National Park Humedales del Ozama (Wetlands of the Ozama). This protected area has approximately 47 km2 and hosts trails, lagoons, forests, canals, rivers, and springs. It is also one of the most important natural attractions of the region. Other protected areas are the Submarine Park La Caleta in Boca Chica, the Scientific Reserve Sierra Prieta to the North of Santo Domingo Norte, and the Loma Novillero Natural Reserve adjacent to Pedro Brand to the Northwest.
Map 2.2.14 - Metropolitan Region. Forest Cover.
Another important feature is the Green Belt of Santo Domingo. A 158 km2 green network created to serve as a growth boundary and an urban lung for Santo Domingo. This feature is not protected by law, thus it is being constantly damaged by informal settlements and other kinds of human activities. FOREST COVERAGE The present forest coverage in the Metropolitan Region is approximately 590 km2 (see Map 2.2.14). The municipalities with the highest forest cover of the region are Pedro Brand, Santo Domingo Norte, and Boca Chica. The Distrito Nacional, Santo Domingo Este, and Santo Domingo Oeste have the poorest forest coverage of the region. This is to be expected due to the urban development it has experienced. By looking at the region’s protected areas and the forest cover map side by side, it is noticeable that not even the most forestdense areas are being protected by the national laws.
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
CHAPTER 3 - A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF URBAN EXPANSION
Section 3.1 - Population Growth In this section, the population growth of the Metropolitan Region is analysed on a decennial basis from the year 1950 to the present. Available data from the National Office for Statistics is used. Most of the municipalities that form the Metropolitan Region were created after the year 2000, and this is why there is little historical information at the municipal level for this region. The analysis, therefore focuses on population growth at the regional scale. The population estimates in Table 3.1.1 for the Metropolitan Region are drawn from the Master Plan document of the Distrito Nacional local government (Ayuntamiento del Distrito Nacional, 2005). Table 3.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Total population estimates by decade.
YEAR
POPULATION
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
350,000 460,000 600,000 1,100,000 1,800,000 2,146,000 3,339,410
% NATIONAL POPULATION 14.8% 14.0% 13.3% 18.9% 25.1% 25.1% 35.4%
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010
The Metropolitan Region has experienced a constant increase of its population from 1950-2010 (Figure 3.1.1). In 1950, the total population for the
4,000,000 3,500,000
3,339,410
3,000,000 Population
The Metropolitan Region has managed to host more than one third of the country’s total population. The accelerated development that this region has experienced can be analysed by looking into three interconnected factors: population growth, infrastructure investments, and urban expansion.
2,500,000 2,146,000
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,500,000
1,100,000
1,000,000 600,000
500,000 -
Population
350,000 1950
460,000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010 Figure 3.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Population growth trends by decade.
region was approximately 350,000 (15% of the national population). From 1950 to 1970 the region’s population almost duplicated (Table 3.1.1) but the percentage of the total national population that it represented decreased from 15% to 13%. During the 1970s the Metropolitan Region experienced the biggest increase (83%) in its population since the 1950s. In the 1980s the population kept growing in a similar rate (63%) but slowed down during the 1990s. The 2000s brought the population back to its historical track with a 55% (~1,200,000 inhabitants) increase in population. During the 1960s, the region experienced the biggest immigration wave to date (Moré, 2008). Nonetheless, the 1970-1990 population increase (300%) was caused mainly by infrastructure policy changes and significant construction that represented new opportunities for a better quality of life for the rural population. But it is not until a decade after (2000) that the population experiences a new steep slope in its growth due to new infrastructure investments and the creation of a new legal subdivision for the region (close to the one that exists today).
15
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 1950-2010
Section 3.2 - Key Infrastructure Investments
ID
TYPE*
SUBTYPE
18
Puente de La 17
E
Transportation
19
Puente Jacinto Peynado
E
Transportation
20
Puente Mella
E
Transportation
21
Zona Industrial Villa Mella
E
Industrial Zone
22
Zona Industrial de Herrera
E
Industrial Zone
23
Villa Olímpica
S
Public Housing
24
Parque Zoológico Nacional
S
Park
Table 3.2.1 shows each key infrastructure investment color-coded by decade from the 1950s to the 2000s. Additional information such the infrastructure type (economic or social) and subtype (transportation, leisure, public housing, kind of facility, etc.) is also shown.
25
Puerto de Haina
E
Port
26
Parque Mirador Sur
S
Park
27
Plaza de la Bandera
S
Admin. Pole
28
Parque Mirador del Este
S
Park
Table 3.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. List of Key Infrastructure Investments per decade.
29
Jardín Botánico Nacional
S
Park
30
Centro Olímpico J.P. Duarte
S
Sports Facilities
In this section, the key infrastructure investments for the Metropolitan Region are shown. These investments have played an important role in shaping of the region through time. For the purpose of this report, infrastructure investments will be of two types: economic, such as transportation infrastructure, production areas, etc.; and social, such as academic poles, public health projects, public housing, institutional areas, parks, etc.
KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 1950-2010 ID
16
NAME
NAME
TYPE*
SUBTYPE
31
Av. 27 de Febrero
E
Transportation
1
Puente Duarte
E
Transportation
32
Av. República de Colombia
E
Transportation
2
Base Aérea San Isidro
E
Military Facilities
33
Av. San Vicente de Paúl
E
Transportation
3
Feria de La Paz
S
Admin. Pole
34
Av. España
E
Transportation
Av. Gregorio Luperón
E
Transportation
4
Feria Ganadera
S
Leisure
35
5
Carretera Sanchez
E
Transportation
36
Av. Los Próceres
E
Transportation
6
Av. Las Américas
E
Transportation
37
Av. José Núnez de Cáceres
E
Transportation
7
Av. Padre Castellanos
E
Transportation
38
Av. Winston Churchill
E
Transportation
8
Autopista de San Isidro
E
Transportation
39
Av. Hermanas Mirabal
E
Transportation
9
Carretera a Yamasá
E
Transportation
40
Av. Rómulo Betancourt
E
Transportation
10
Av. Sabana Larga
E
Transportation
41
Av. Paseo Reyes Católicos
E
Transportation
11
Carretera a La Victoria
E
Transportation
42
Av. Fernández de Navarrete
E
Transportation
12
Av. Venezuela
E
Transportation
43
Av. 25 de Febrero
E
Transportation
13
Aeropuerto de Herrera
E
Airport
44
Av. Estados Unidos
E
Transportation
14
AILA
E
Airport
45
Av. Mirador del Este
E
Transportation
Zona Industrial Hainamosa
E
Industrial Zone
15
Av. Fco. del Rosario Sanchez
E
Transportation
46
16
Av. John F. Kennedy
E
Transportation
47
Zona Franca San Isidro
E
Industrial Zone
17
Av. Enrique Jiménez Moya
E
Transportation
48
Parque Mirador Norte
S
Park
Data drawn from conversations with Arch. Marcos Blonda and Arch. Alex Martínez 1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 1950-2010 ID
NAME
TYPE*
6
26
64
30
27
31
SUBTYPE
49
Hipódromo V Centenario
S
Entertainment
50
Expreso V Centenario
E
Transportation
51
Av. Konrad Adenauer
E
Transportation
52
Av. Los Restauradores
E
Transportation
53
Av. del Progreso
E
Transportation
54
Av. Mexico 2
E
Transportation
55
Parque Eléctrico Los Mina
E
Electric Facility
56
Puente Juan Bosch
E
Transportation
57
Parque Industrial Duarte
E
Industrial Zone
58
Zona Franca Los Alcarrizos
E
Industrial Zone
59
Aeropuerto J. Balaguer
E
Airport
60
Zona Industrial Las Américas
E
Industrial Zone
61
Ciudad de La Salud
S
Public Health
62
Av. Fco. A. Caamaño Deñó
E
Transportation
63
Prolongación 27 de Febrero
E
Transportation
64
Av. Charles de Gaulle
E
Transportation
65
Av. Jacobo Majluta
E
Transportation
66
Autopista 6 de Noviembre
E
Transportation
67
Av. Mirador del Norte
E
Transportation
68
Av. Emma Balaguer
E
Transportation
69
Av. del Hipódromo
E
Transportation
70
Av. Ecológica Juan Bosch
E
Transportation
71
Megacentro Industrial
E
Comm. Pole
72
Puerto Sans Soucí
E
Port
73
Complejo Juegos Panam.
S
Sports Facilities
74
ITLA
E
Academic Pole
75
Puerto Multimodal Caucedo
E
Port
76
Autopista del Este
E
Transportation
77
Autopista del Nordeste
E
Transportation
*E=Economic; S=Social Note: Some continuous transportation infrastructure built during the same decade were merged together to summarize the list.
17 Images source: www.skyscrapercity.com
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
Decade of Construction Color Code
18 Data drawn from conversations with Arch. Marcos Blonda and Arch. Alex MartĂnez Map 3.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Key Infrastructure Investments per decade.
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
72
37
19 Images source: www.skyscrapercity.com
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
Section 3.3 - Urban Expansion The Metropolitan Region has experienced an accelerated expansion of its main built-up footprint since the 1950s (see Table 3.3.1). Due to the lack of information available to produce urban expansion maps for the beginning of each decade, and to match the population to each footprint, an interpolation of the total population for the region was performed. Table 3.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Population and Area 1956-2013.
POPULATION
AREA (Km2)
1956 1960 1974 1978 1986 1999 2009 2013
416,000 460,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,520,000 2,111,400 3,220,069 3,466,013
20.5 39.0 87.5 122.0 175.0 253.0 340.5 375.0
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010.
1956 1960
Map 3.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion sequence (1956 - 2013). 4,000,000 3,500,000
2,500,000
20
1,500,000
500,000 -
Population
1,520,000
1,000,000 416,000
800,000 460,000
1,000,000
1956 1960 1974 1978 1986 1999 2009 2013 Year
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010. Figure 3.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Population Interpolation 1956-2013 (pop). 400 362.49
350
333.46
300 Area (sqkm)
1960-1974 By 1974, the region was already showing the consequences of the migratory wave that started in the 1960s. The region’s population increased by 340,000 people in 14 years. Also, new policies in both economic and social infrastructure caused another massive spread of the urban footprint throughout the
2,111,400
2,000,000
Figures 3.3.1 and 3.3.2 graphically show the region’s increment in population and urban footprint, respectively. 1956-1960 In this period, the population increased only by 44,000 people. On the other hand, the urban footprint was duplicated. The urban expansion to Santo Domingo Este started to be obvious, although the Distrito Nacional was being consolidated even more and pushing to the West.
3,466,013 3,220,069
3,000,000 Population
YEAR
% METROPOLITAN REGION 1% 3% 6% 9% 13% 18% 24% 26%
252.61
250 200
174.89
150 100
85.96
50 -
Area
122.39
17.38
1956
36.65
1960
1974
1978
1986
1999
2009
2013
Year Data drawn from ArcMap. Figure 3.3.2 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion 1956-2013 (km2).
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
1960
1986
1974
1999
1974
1999
1978
2009
1978
2009
1986
2013
Map 3.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion sequence (1956 - 2013) (continued).
21
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
Distrito Nacional, and also consolidated and expanded the populated areas in Santo Domingo Este. It more than doubled its previous urban footprint. 1974-1978 The new public infrastructure investments during the 1970s showed their real effects by the year 1978. At this time, urban expansion clearly shift to the Eastern part of the region (Santo Domingo Este). In a minor sense, this period also started to show some dispersion to the West (Santo Domingo Oeste) and to the North (Santo Domingo Norte). Despite this short period of time, the region’s population increased by 200,000 people and its urban footprint increased by 50%.
1956
1978-1986 During this period, the region’s population increased by 50% to reach 1.5 millions inhabitants. The urban footprint was already more than 10% of the region’s total area. Substantial expansion occurred in every direction, but as always, the pressures to the East can always be highlighted. 1986-1999 From 1986 to 1999, the population slowed its pace. Its average population increase per year went from 65,000 (1978-1986) to 45,000. Nevertheless, the sprawling urban footprint kept pushing to the East and to the North in a steady way. 1999-2009 Even though the expansion to the Northeast did not stop, during this period the West (Santo Domingo Oeste) and North West (Los Alcarrizos and Pedro Brand) municipalities absorbed most of the growth. The population for the region increased by more than 1 million people, breaking the 3 million inhabitants barrier. 2009-2013 This last period is characterized by the effects of new infrastructure investments such as the Metro system Line 1. This caused a sudden expansion in Santo Domingo Norte, and a consolidation of its built-up areas. New infrastructure projects also pushed the urban footprint to Los Alcarrizos and Pedro Brand.
2013 22
The Fair, Administrative Pole, Distrito Nacional Images source: www.skyscrapercity.com
Some analyses of urban expansion tendencies show that from 1956-2013 the Metropolitan Region’s urban footprint is strongly growing to the East-Northeast areas (see Map 3.3.2). In the map, the eight mean center points1 correspond to the urban footprint for the eight time periods analysed. Then, using ArcMap, these points were used to generate a standard deviational ellipse2 to summarize their spatial characteristics (central tendency, dispersion, and directional trends). 1 The mean center is a point constructed from the average x and y values for the input feature centroids (ESRI, 2009). 2 The Standard Deviational Ellipse tool creates a new feature class containing elliptical polygons. The attribute values for these ellipse polygons include X and Y coordinates for the mean center points, two standard distances, and the orientation of the ellipse (Mitchel, 2005).
Chapter 3 - A Retrospective Analysis of Urban Expansion
Map 3.3.2 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion tendency.
1956
1986
1960
1999
1974
2009
1978
2013
23
Chapter 4 - Predicting Future Urban Expansion
CHAPTER 4 - PREDICTING FUTURE URBAN EXPANSION
Section 4.1 - Population Projections In this section, population projections for the Metropolitan Region are presented for the year 2023. The available data from the National Office for Statistics is summarized using graphics for easier understanding. For this part of the analysis, the projections focus only on the population denoted as urban by the National Office for Statistics due to the short period of time (10 years) that will be considered for projecting urban expansion. For the population projections, municipal-scale data is used to properly inform conclusions about where future population might be located within the region. Table 4.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Population Projections 2023 by municipality.
Metropolitan Region - Urban Population Projections
24
MUNICIPALITY
POPULATION 2013
POPULATION 2023*
Distrito Nacional
1,072,008
1,150,842
Santo Domingo Este
975,660
1,131,662
Santo Domingo Oeste
353,449
421,976
Santo Domingo Norte
518,560
613,783
Boca Chica
111,667
134,265
San Antonio de Guerra
18,542
34,525
Los Alcarrizos
272,455
306,891
Pedro Brand
65,385
76,723
*Projected. National Office for Statistics.
1,400,000 1,200,000 Distrito Nacional
1,000,000 Population
Government policymakers and planners benefit from urban growth projections in that they show possible scenarios for the behavior of urban settlements on the territory. Future demand for space, water, energy, and services, can be informed by future urban growth scenarios. Population projections can alert policymakers to major trends that may affect economic development and help policymakers craft policies that can be adapted for various projection scenarios.
Santo Domingo Este
800,000
Santo Domingo Oeste Santo Domingo Norte
600,000
Boca Chica San Antonio de Guerra
400,000
Los Alcarrizos
200,000 -
Pedro Brand 2013
2023 Year
Data from National Office for Statistics 2010. Figure 4.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Population Projections 2023 by municipality.
Population projections for the Metropolitan Region show that Santo Domingo Este is likely to receive a high share of the total population increase for the region. Figure 4.1.1 shows how by 2023 the population of Santo Domingo Este and that of the Distrito Nacional will be almost the same. Also, Santo Domingo Norte, San Antonio de Guerra, and Los Alcarrizos will receive a considerable increase in their population. The population projections presented in this section only serve as a starting point for predicting the main areas for future urban expansion. Population projections do not usually account for new infrastructure investments, environmental characteristics of the territory, or any other externality that may have an influence on urban expansion.
Chapter 4 - Predicting Future Urban Expansion
Section 4.2 - Future Infrastructure Investments Future infrastructure investments are a key factor affecting urban growth predictions. Along with population projections, planned infrastructure for the future can inform which areas have the highest probability of hosting future population and experiencing urban growth. In Table 4.2.1 below are listed the major planned infrastructure investments for the Metropolitan Region during the next two decades. Even if some of these projects are not planned to be completed within the time-frame of this report (2013-2023), it is assumed that they will have some effect on the urban growth tendency of the Metropolitan Region’s physical footprint. Table 4.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Population Projections 2023 by municipality.
FUTURE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS I.D.
NAME
TYPE*
SUBTYPE
1 2 3 4 5 6
Metro Santo Domingo (Lines 2-6, AILA)
E
Transportation
Bypass Santo Domingo
E
Transportation
The New Barquita Project
S
Public Housing
Juan Bosch City
S
Public Housing
Sans Soucí Real Estate Project
E
Real Estate
CAASD Sewerage System Expansion
E
Sewage System
Data drawn from OPRET, MOPC, MP, Grupo Vicini TBR, CAASD, and conversations with Arch. Shaney Peña.
Metro Santo Domingo The Metro is by far the most ambitious transportation infrastructure project within the Metropolitan Region. Despite what the opinion of some groups might be, this project is planned to go forward. The construction of phase two of Line 2 started at the end of the first quarter of 2014, and phase 3 is expected to follow in the near future. Assumptions are made that the complete Metro system will be completed by the year 2030. The Metro Santo Domingo is expected to bring an increase in population density to the areas surrounding the metro stations. Moreover, its main ob-
jective is to relieve traffic congestion throughout the region. The areas located in the beginning and end of the metro lines are expected to grow in an accelerated way. These areas will now have better access to the city center and others will also be able to access them more easily. Bypass Santo Domingo The main objective of the Santo Domingo Bypass is that traffic coming from the North and the traffic travelling East-West avoid having to go through the middle of the urban area. This project is supposed to decongest the urbanized areas from unnecessary traffic. The region has a history with bypasses. Some avenues that are now part of the urban fabric were planned to serve as bypasses too. Due to the fact that there is no land use plan to control the urban growth of the region, projects of this sort tend to provoke human settlements in areas nearby. The New Barquita Project The New Barquita Project is an integral environmental and economic intervention plan for the community of “La Barquita”. It intends to relocate 5,500 people that live in the flood hazard zones of the Ozama River. The urban infrastructure and amenities that a project of this magnitude need, not only benefits the people that will live there. Projects like this tend to expand the urban footprint of the communities they target. Juan Bosch City The main objective of the Juan Bosch City is to decrease the housing shortage affecting the region. The project includes the construction of 25,000 dwellings, basic urban infrastructure, commercial spaces, and urban amenities. The surrounding areas of this project will experience a major boost in their population, and as a consequence their urban footprint will increase too. Sans Soucí Real Estate Project The Sans Soucí Real Estate Project aims at creating a compact mixed-use city center intended for both residents and visitors. Among the different pieces of this project are residential, commercial, hotel, offices, and institutional buildings.
25
Chapter 4 - Predicting Future Urban Expansion
In its first phase, Sans Souci renewed the Port of Santo Domingo and started building new urban amenities along the city’s waterfront.
Image source: www.elcaribe.com.do
2
Image source: www.noticiassin.com
4
Image source: Inconserca
3
According to the private investors, this project is expected to increase the surrounding areas’ population density since it will create a strong touristic pole capable of providing an annual average of 20,400 jobs. CAASD Sewerage System Expansion The Metropolitan Region has a low sewerage coverage. Only 5%1 of the region’s total population has wastewater treatment services. Moreover, the existing coverage has already been outgrown in capacity, so it is not even enough for the covered population. What this means is that 95% of the region’s population discharges its waste through wells to the ground, rivers, streams, and the Caribbean Sea. Map 4.2.1 shows the first two phases (2020 and 2030) of the CAASD’s 30-year master plan. Areas with better services and infrastructure are more likely to host new population. Both developers and the public sector prioritize well-served areas when thinking about developing certain areas. This kind of public infrastructure are the base for future real estate projects that contribute to the urban expansion of the region.
6
26
Image source: www.enlacosa.com 1 Corporación del Acueducto y Alcantarillado de Santo Domingo (CAASD). English translation: Santo Domingo Water and Sewerage Corporation.
Chapter 4 - Predicting Future Urban Expansion
27 Map 4.2.1 - Metropolitan Region. Future Infrastructure Investments.
Data sources: OPRET, MOPC, MP, Grupo Vicini TBR, and CAASD.
Chapter 4 - Predicting Future Urban Expansion
Section 4.3 - Future Urban Expansion Urban expansion historic trends, urban growth projections, and future urban infrastructure projects are three of the main indicators that can help predict and prioritize future urban expansion areas throughout a region of interest. In this section, five areas with a high probability of experiencing rapid urban expansion during the next ten years are identified and characterized. The selection of these five areas is based on the three indicators mentioned above. Since all the necessary indicators for predicting urban expansion are not analysed in this report, these areas are not spatially detailed but are an indication of the approximate location and extension of future urban expansion (see Map 4.3.1). The five areas are identified with letters (A-E) to better reference them throughout the rest of the report. A
Area A
This area covers a large part of the eastern undeveloped land in Santo Domingo Este, the areas immediately surrounding the Juan Bosch City project between Santo Domingo Este and San Antonio de Guerra, and the undeveloped strip north of the coastal development in Boca Chica. There are three main drivers for this urban expansion. (1) The historical urbanization pressures to the eastern side of the Metropolitan Region evidenced in the urban expansion analysis presented ealier in this report. (2) The Juan Bosch City’s 25,000-dwelling development and the collateral urbanizing effect with which projects of this magnitude are usually related to. (3) The connectivity this area is developing with the future AILA Metro Line and the future bypass project on one of its extremes. B
28
Area B
This area is located in Santo Domingo Norte and focuses on two infrastructure projects: the future New Barquita and the existing Metro Line 1. The New Barquita Project will host 5,500 people that now live in flood hazard areas nearby. This infrastructure project may contribute to the development
of undeveloped land in surrounding areas. The Metro Line 1 (Station 1) is right to the West of Area B. The first and last stations of each metro line are expected to play an important role in the future expansion of the Metropolitan Region due to the new connectivity possibilities it presents to previously remote places. This area to the North could be strengthened by the presence of the new bypass. C
Area C
Area C is located in Santo Domingo Norte. It covers the undeveloped areas between the Metro Line 1 (Station 1) and the future bypass project. These two infrastructure features give this area connectivity advantages not present before. D
Area D
This area covers most of the undeveloped western areas of Santo Domingo Oeste. Its proximity to both the future bypass and the Metro Line 2 (Station 1) make this area a target for an accelerated future urban expansion. Also, the Eastern limit of the Santo Domingo Oeste municipality is composed of section of Metro Lines 2, 3, and 4. Moreover, the urbanizing pressure from the Distrito Nacional is too strong to be ignored. E
Area E
Area E covers from the northern part of Los Alcarrizos to the southern part of Pedro Brand. This area is limited to the North with the Isabela River, tributary of the Ozama River, and to the South with the core urban area of Los Alcarrizos. It is also bisected Southwest-Northeast by the future bypass project and Southeast-Northwest by the Autopista Duarte. The Autopista Duarte leads to the Metro Line 2 (Station 1) located only two kilometers to the Southeast. Historically, Area E has experienced an accelerated urban expansion expected to be boosted by the presence of the future infrastructure investments detailed in the previous section of this report.
Chapter 4 - Predicting Future Urban Expansion
C E B D
A
Urban Expansion Areas 2023 Map 4.3.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban Expansion Areas 2023.
29
Chapter 5 - Consequences
CHAPTER 5 - CONSEQUENCES Urbanization is an irreversible global trend involving a multitude of social, economic, environmental and spatial aspects. While urbanization is widely accepted as an indicator for economic development, its pace and impact on social and spatial conditions pose unprecedented challenges to both politicians and professionals. The experience of the past decades has shown that conventional concepts of urban planning and development based on control and investment in key infrastructure have not been adequate to cope with the rapid changes, financial constraints, high population growth, increasing urban poverty, informal land development, and the adverse environmental impacts of urbanization.
Section 5.1 - Urban Management Issues The expected expansion of the Metropolitan Region’s urban footprint may present urban and environmental management issues. Also, a social implications due to changes in development patterns can be highlighted, even though this is not going to be the focus in this analysis. For instance, some social implications are the potential displacement of the lower income population already living in the urban periphery. This is, once infrastructure and other services reach the areas that the lower income urban population inhabit, the cost of real estate is likely to increase substantially. Most people see an opportunity here to make a profit while moving even farther away from the actual urban footprint where the cost of the land stays low. In this section, natural resources and physical characteristics of the territory are highlighted in order to identify possible conflicts between the expected urban expansion areas and the natural environment.
30
Map 5.1.1 overlays the 2013 urban footprint, the 2023 expected urban expansion areas, and future infrastructure investments with the main environmental resources of the region. Among the highlighted environmental resources presented in this map are the terrain slopes (>20%), main rivers, protected
areas, the green belt, fluvial channels, forest coverage, flood hazard areas, and a Resource Planning Unit (03). Resource Planning Units are areas of homogenous characteristics in physiography, weather, and geology created by the Ministry of Agriculture to plan for agricultural resources and soils’ detailed projections. Resource Area Unit 03 has slopes that range from flat to steep and soils are argillaceous (clay) and shallow. The main use of this unit is reserved for perennial crops (steep slopes) and agricultural use (small valleys). Area A This area presents dense forest coverage areas, almost the complete Eastern part of the green belt, and the tail of a protected area. It also covers the Boca Chica coastal development (see image in page 32). Some analyses performed using data from Hansen et al from the University of Maryland shows that, during the last decade, the region’s total forest coverage has been decreased by approximately 8% (~48 km2). By noticing the coastal strip urban development in relation to the forest cover, it is clear that not much forest is left in the urbanized areas. When forests are fragmented or destroyed, the ecological services and benefits they provide (clear air, good water quality, biodiversity habitat, etc.) are lost. The green belt’s main objective is to contain urban expansion and provide valuable ecological services to the region. Most of the green belt is being affected by over-urbanization and lack of law enforcement (see image in page 32). Area A’s future urban expansion could affect dramatically, and even fragment, the green belt of Santo Domingo. Area B The main environmental elements present in this area are the green belt, the Ozama River, and flood hazard zones. This area is vulnerable to floods due to its proximity to the river. The New
Chapter 5 - Consequences
C E B D
A
Urban Expansion Areas 2023
31 Map 5.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Environmental Resources and Future Urban Expansion
Data sources: Ministry of the Environment and Hansen et al.
Chapter 5 - Consequences
Barquita Project will relocate most of the people encroached in the flood hazard areas but the urbanizing pressure inland could provoke other parts of the green belt to be occupied by human settlements. These settlements are in part responsible for the pollution of the Ozama River, that at the same time may represent public health issues to the communities in the area. Area C This area is covered in its majority by forest. Also, it is completely within the fluvial channels area. The forest coverage of this area is scattered and shows small and highly fragmented patches. The new transportation infrastructure that will be needed for the new development is a threat to the remaining forest resources still present in Area C. On the other hand, urban expansion in this area may affect superficial streams and groundwater resources contributing to the major rivers in the region such as the Isabela River. This area could be a great contributor to the deterioration of the region’s water network. Area D This area is surrounded by the green belt, fluvial channels, and flood hazard areas. The flood hazard areas are associated with the Haina River and represent a major threat to the physical stability of human settlements. Since no law enforcement exists to prevent urbanization from invading the green belt, this area may pose a threat to this important environmental feature. The urbanizing pressures coming from Los Alcarrizos (North) and the already developed land of Santo Domingo Oeste (South) might cause this area to be covered with a high percentage of impervious surface in an accelerated way.
32
Boca Chica coastal development
Area E In this area, a major combination of environmental features come into place. Dense forest coverage, flood hazard areas, fluvial channels, and Resource Planning Unit 03 are present in this urban expansion area. After Area A, this is the second area with the highest probability to experience an accelerated urban expansion in the near future. This expansion may harm or disrupt the natural resources that come together within Area E. The lack of environmental resources and services may produce low quality urban environments harmful to both people and the natural landscape. Santo Domingo Green Belt. Parque Mirador Norte Images source: www.skyscrapercity.com
Chapter 6 - Conclusions
CHAPTER 6 - CONCLUSIONS
The region shows a high demand for residential units to host its population. Western municipalities (Pedro Brand, Santo Domingo Oeste, and Los Alcarrizos) show occupancy rates of approximately 90%. This high housing demand is a consequence of the rapid population growth that the region has experienced during the past six decades and the government not having housing policies in place to respond to this accelerated growth. In this sense, this population is underserved in terms of sewage system, and the municipalities with the highest population densities do not match with the ones better served by the public water system. This situation reveals poor planning at the municipal and regional scales. KEY ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Some of the major environmental resources present in this region are the coastline connecting the region with the Caribbean Sea; the mountain system in the Northwestern part leading to the northern region of the island; four watersheds that collect the waters from the North and Northwest and guide them to the sea; a geologic diversity that goes from limestone and reef formations to volcanic geological formations; protected areas that try to pre-
Rapid population growth and infrastructure investments triggered an accelerated and unconstrained urban expansion pattern (see Figure 6.1.1) characterized by an intensive consumption of environmental resources. From 1956-2013, urban expansion tendencies show that the Metropolitan Region’s urban footprint is more strongly growing to the East-Northeast areas where no physical limitations are present on the territory. However, this does not 400
4,000,000
350 3,466,013 Urban Footprint Trendline 3,220,069
3,500,000
400 350
300
3,000,000 2,500,000
2,111,400
2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 416,000
800,000 460,000
1,520,000 Population Trendline 1,000,000
250 200
300 Area (sqkm)
THE METROPOLITAN REGION The Metropolitan Region has conventional inside-out population distribution. This means that its population gradually decreases from the urban core to the periphery areas.
POPULATION GROWTH AND URBAN EXPANSION TRENDS During the 1960s, the region experienced the biggest immigration wave to date. Nevertheless, it is during the 1970s that the Metropolitan Region experiences the biggest increase (83%) in its population over the last six decades. The population burst from 1970-1990 (300% increase) was caused mainly by infrastructure policy changes and construction of public infrastructure. A decade went by without major population growth, but from 2000-2010 the region experienced a 1,200,000 people increase driven by a new boost on public infrastructure investments.
Area (sqkm)
Section 6.1 - Conclusions
serve some of the natural features of the region; a green belt designed to control urban expansion and to provide quality open space; and forests that provide regulating and supporting ecosystem services.
Population
Since the 1950s, the Metropolitan Region has experienced an accelerated urban expansion mainly linked with large infrastructure investments and rapid population growth trends. During the next decade, this region is expected to continue its urban expansion rhythm guided by major future infrastructure investments, both social and economic, which do not explicitly take into account possible urban management issues associated with the environmental resources and physical constraints of the territory.
250 200
150 150 Population
100 50
100
50 -
17.38
1956
85
36.65 1960 197
17.38 1956 1960 1960 1974 1974 1978 2013 1956 1978 1986 1986 1999 19992009 2009 2013 1956 1960 Year Year
Figure 6.1.1 - Metropolitan Region. Urban footprint and population trends.
36.65
1974
33
Chapter 6 - Conclusions
mean that the region’s urban footprint has not expanded in an accelerated fashion to other areas such as the Northwestern (Los Alcarrizos and Pedro Brand) and Western (Santo Domingo Oeste) municipalities. Although, these municipalities present physical limitation such as high density of rivers and streams, steep slopes, and restricting geological formations. FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH AND URBAN EXPANSION Population projections for the Metropolitan Region show that Santo Domingo Este will receive the highest share of the total population increase for the region by the year 2023. By this year, the population for this municipality and that of the Distrito Nacional will be almost the same. Other municipalities that will also receive a considerable increase in their population are Santo Domingo Norte, San Antonio de Guerra, and Los Alcarrizos. Due to present and future infrastructure projects, such as the Metro Lines, the region is also expected to increase the population density of some areas such as the Distrito Nacional and the urbanized areas of Santo Domingo Norte and Santo Domingo Este. The five areas selected in this report as the ones to experience an accelerated urban expansion are based on historic urban expansion trends, population growth projections, and future key infrastructure projects. In general, the main infrastructure projects that will probably guide future urban expansion (2013-2023) are the Santo Domingo Bypass, the Metro Lines, and Juan Bosch City project. Nevertheless, the area identified in the East (Area A), will probably host the highest share of urban footprint expansion.
34
URBAN MANAGEMENT ISSUES Future urban expansion areas represent a threat to the valuable environmental resources in the region. If the predicted accelerated urban expansion occurs in the five selected areas, and no urban growth and environmental protection policies are put in place, ecosystem services will be negatively affected. Natural resources such as forests, rivers, and streams may be impaired and harmed. At the same time, protection areas such as the green belt will continue to be diminished. These consequences have a direct negative effect on the urban quality of life of both the existing and future developed areas.
Section 6.2 - Policy Recommendations •
Assign economic value to ecosystem services.
Total economic value is the sum of all the relevant use and non-use values for a good or service. Economists classify ecosystem values into several types. The two main categories are use values and non-use, or “passive use” values. Whereas use values are based on actual use of the environment, non-use values are values that are not associated with actual use, or even an option to use, an ecosystem or its services (King et al 2000). By assigning economic value to the benefits derived from the natural environment, a new tool is created to advocate for the protection of ecosystems. For instance, in the case of a new development project in a forested area, if there is a monetary value assigned to each square meter of forest then a netbenefit analysis could be performed to determine what is being sacrificed and if it is worth it. •
Create a Natural Land Conservation Strategy.
Urban expansion cannot be contained, we should plan for it. By developing and implementing a plan focused on the cost-effectiveness that exists in the balance between urban land supply and land conservation in a territory, urban expansion can be seen as a contributor to a better quality of life for a region’s population. A Natural Land Conservation Strategy would require an environmental resources assessment to determine highly sensible natural resources. Then, several developabilty scenarios focused on urban expansion would serve as key informants for where to incentivise new development. This strategy would serve also to identify and reserve land to conserve and land for future infrastructure investments. •
Create a Greenbelt Protection and Usage Plan with legal power.
Nowadays, there is no legal instrument to enforce the protection of the San-
Chapter 6 - Conclusions
to Domingo Greenbelt. One is needed. Flood hazard areas exist within the greenbelt and part of the idea to protect it is to “protect” people from flood areas. But the greenbelt is already penetrated by the urban footprint of the Metropolitan Region, and this is why a protection-only plan would be weak to address the issue. If a usage plan is created to act as a complement of the protection plan, then the greenbelt’s violation cannot go unnoticed as easily as it does today. The Santo Domingo Greenbelt is a major asset of the Metropolitan Region since it has the potential to serve as a multi-scale amenity and to provide invaluable ecological services to the region’s inhabitants. •
These policy recommendations are not exhaustive by any means. Moreover, these intend to awaken discussion and action to address the urban management issues that are affecting the Metropolitan Region in the present and those that might arise in the future. “This City is what it is because our citizens are what they are.” Plato
Protect prime farmland from development pressures.
The Metropolitan Region presents a sprawled urban expansion pattern that is negatively affecting farmland. The loss of fertile land is irreplaceable. It serves a purpose of providing food for animals and human beings. Farmland is attractive for development due to its flatness (Akerman 2009). Farmland is not just a food provider. Well-managed farmland shelters wildlife, supplies scenic open space and helps filter impurities from the air and water. By identifying the prime farmland in the region, and especially that located in close proximity to the urban periphery, efforts can be focused to protect that land. For instance, offer incentives to create conservation easements on important productive lands. Also, the creation of disincentives to convert land from farmland to urban. •
Promote sustainable urban densities.
City densities must remain within a sustainable range. If density is too low, it must be allowed to increase, and if it is too high, it must be allowed to decline (Angel 2012). In the case of the Metropolitan Region, the increase in densities taking into account future infrastructure projects and natural urban expansion tendencies should be promoted. For instance, the Metro Santo Domingo project could be used to increase urban densities along the metro lines, and at the same time to relieve congestion in the city center by enhancing accessibility times.
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References Angel, S. (2012). Planet of cities. Cambridge, Mass.: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. CAASD. Santo Domingo Corporation of Water and Sewer, (2012). The greater santo domingo sewerage master plan. Retrieved from website: www.caasd.gov.do. Hansen et al. (2013) High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest. College Park, MD: University of Maryland. King, D., & Mazzota, M. (2000). Valuation of Ecosystem Services. Valuation of Ecosystem Services. Retrieved from website: http://www.ecosystemvaluation.org/1-02.htm. Mackay-Fisher, K. (2003, October). Understanding infrastructure investments. Retrieved from www.ceoforum.com.au. Ministry of Public Works and Communications, (2012). Road infrastructure system of the dominican republic. Retrieved from website: www.mopc.gob.do. Ministry of the Environment of the Domincan Republic, (2012). Natural resources and biodiversity atlas for the dominican republic. Retrieved from website: www.ambiente.gob.do. Mor茅, G. L. (2008). Stories for the construction of the dominican architecture, 1492-2008. (1st ed.). Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic: Grupo Le贸n Jimenes. ONE. National Office for Statistics, (2004). VIII national census of population and housing. Retrieved from website: www. one.gob.do. ONE. National Office for Statistics, (2012). IX national census of population and housing. Retrieved from website: www. one.gob.do. ONE. National Office for Statistics, Department of Cartography. (2011). Urban expansion in the dominican republic 19882006. Retrieved from website: www.one.gob.do. OPRET. Office for Transportation Reorganization, (2005). Santo domingo metro future lines. Retrieved from website: www.opret.gob.do. NASA, (2013). Landsat tm satellite imagery. Retrieved from website: earthexplorer.usgs.gov. Navarro, S. R., Perez Mendez, L., Camilo, W., & Aguasvivas Santana, J. J. (2009). Analysis of urban growth in the metropolitan area of santo domingo through landsat tm multispectral satellite images. Paper presented at the 7th latin american and caribbean conference for engineering and technology, San Crist贸bal, Venezuela. Tarr, J. A., (1984). The evolution of the urban infrastructure in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Perspectives on urban infrastructure, 4-66.
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Landsat 8 TM Satellite Image (2013). Metropolitan Region, Dominican Republic. USGS
Data Sources National Office for Statistics (ONE) Its mission is to coordinate and promote the National Statistical System under common law, to produce and disseminate official statistics information with quality and transparency for decision-making in public policy and national development. Population projection method: Components method. For this method, it is necessary to estimate and project each demographic component (mortality, fertility and migration). Office for the Reorganization of Transportation (OPRET) Its main objective is to solve the problem of traffic and transportation in the capital city and at national level. Ministry of the Presidency (MP) Its main objective is to assist the President in the management and implementation of public policies and institutional relations. Ministry of Public Works and Communications (MOPC) Its role is to plan, design, build, and properly maintain the necessary public works for a sustained economic growth. Ministry of the Environment (MA) Its mission is to govern the management of the environment, ecosystems and natural resources, to contribute to sustainable development and the assets that comprise the national heritage. Santo Domingo Corporation of Water and Sewer (CAASD) Its role is to respond to the needs of safe drinking water and sanitary sewerage of residents in the National District and the Santo Domingo province, in a sustainable manner. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) NASA Science division is focused on better understanding Earth through the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS is a program of NASA comprising a series of artificial satellite missions and scientific instruments in Earth orbit designed for long-term global observations of the land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans of the Earth. World Resources Institute (WRI) WRI is a global research organization that works closely with leaders to turn big ideas into action to sustain a healthy environment—the foundation of economic opportunity and human well-being.
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