Remembering the first Cold War, as Cold War II Takes Shape.

By Arthur Tulak, Editor, Commandery News

The Cold War began September 2, 1945 with the end of World War II, and officially ended December 26, 1991. America passed through the 30th anniversary of the end of this war in December 2021, just 14 months ago. Did anyone notice? How did the United States recognize and commemorate this significant anniversary? How were Cold War Veterans thanked for their service for the generations that followed this achievement? It is difficult to find much evidence of any organized commemoration of the sort that has marked similar anniversaries of ‘hot’ wars.

For those who may not remember, the Cold War ended with the official dissolution of our primary adversary, (the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or USSR) marked by the final lowering of the hammer-and-sickle flag from the Kremlin on Christmas Day 1991, and the official dissolution of the USSR on the following day. The former USSR had existed for 69 years, spanned 11 time zones, covered 22 million square kilometers (a sixth of the Earth’s surface), and comprised 15 modern day states.

At the three decade anniversary, a few academic panels and events were convened at think tanks and universities (in the U.S. and abroad) to review history and the lessons it might teach, but in the U.S. DoD and U.S. Veterans Affairs, there is no evidence that any official commemoration was made for this significant and historic victory. The Army Heritage Center hosted an on-line academic discussion on December 9, 2021, with General George Joulwan, former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR), and the Simons Center of the Command and General Staff College Foundation held three on-line discussions. However, no official commemorations of note took place on the 30th anniversary, or at least, there is no evidence in the public domain that any occurred. The U.S. Senate passed a resolution recognizing the 30th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall, which did not mention Cold War Veterans., and the only mention of military was that of the military forces of the Warsaw Pact.1

COLD WAR Veteran Recognition.

The number of Cold War Veterans is significant, given the time period of 46 years over which the Cold War played out. According to Trinity Gruenberg, “There is an estimated 35 million Cold War era Veterans, of which roughly 22 million are still with us.”3 The Dept. of Veterans Affairs recognizes the Cold War Veterans had serviceconnected injuries and lists ten specific types, outside of those associated with operations in a declared war or campaign. https://www.va.gov/health-care/health-needs-conditions/health-issues-related-to-service-era/coldwar/ Many Veterans of the Cold War also served in named combat and peace operations, who also can claim their Veteran status from those deployments and periods of service.

Members of Congress have proposed legislation to honor Cold War Veterans for the last twenty years, and have once again taken up the issue, with Congresswoman Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), and Representatives David McKinley (R-W.Va.) and Brian Higgins (D-NY), introducing the “Cold War Service Medal Act. “ the proposed legislation “would recognize veterans who served in the Cold War with medals for their distinguished service. “ This legislation, if passed, “would authorize a service medal for those in the military between September 1945 and December 1991 who served on active duty for 24 consecutive months during the Cold War; were deployed outside of the continental U.S. for a period of at least 30 days during the Cold War; or were a member of a reserve unit called to active duty to participate in exercises or operations directly related to the Cold War. If the eligible veteran has passed away, next of kin could also receive the medal in their absence.”2 Congress’ first attempt at a Cold War Medal was not supported by DoD, and instead, a certificate was authorized. The Army still runs the Cold War Recognition Certificate Program via its Human Resources Command, for all services. https://www.hrc.army.mil/ content/Cold%20War%20Recognition%20Certificate%20Program

The Cold War Certificate is the result of an action by Congress in section 1084 of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 1998, wherein Congress commended the members of the Armed Forces and civilian personnel who contributed to the victory of the Western Alliance in the Cold War, and asked the DoD to recognize Cold War Veterans with a certificate of their service. With the passage of the NDAA for FY 2002 in October 2001, Con gress expressed its position with a resolution that the Secretary of Defense should consider authorizing the issuance of a Campaign medal, to be known as the “Cold War Service Medal.” A Cold War Medal was designed (at right), but was never made official. The MOFW has made the Cold War Medal an official medal of the Order, that is authorized for wear by Companions with Cold War Service. What about a Cold War Memorial?

Remembering the first Cold War, as Cold War II Takes Shape (continued).

Many Cold War Veterans have sought a memorial in Washington D.C., without success. The Pritzker Museum is stepping in to create a National Memorial in Illinois. The vision of the Cold War Veterans Memorial is to create permanent recognition that stimulates ongoing thought, and study which honors American military and civilians who served and sacrificed during the Cold War era. In line with the Pritzker Military Museum & Library’s mission, the Cold War Veterans Memorial aims to increase the public understanding of military history. It will be a lasting tribute to the courage and tenacity found in the U.S. Armed Forces and civilian personnel who faithfully and honorably served during the Cold War era, September 2, 1945 to December 26, 1991. The design, headed by Jenny Wu and Dwayne Oyler, envisions a memorial that embodies the ideals and mission of the Memorial Park, making more tactile a context that can’t be measured in a single name or event – only in glimpses of history. Within these glimpses is a layered timeline of both personal and collective experiences that are emblematic of the Cold War – a paradigm that rebalances the interconnected narratives of American innovation and service. https:// www.pritzkerarchivespark.com/cold-war-veterans-memorial/

Non-Federal Recognition of Cold War Veterans At the State level, there is some effort to recognize Cold War Veterans for their service that contributed to the historic victory. Arkansas, Illinois, and Tennessee will issue Cold War Veteran license plates to Veterans who can prove their service from 1945-1991. A petition drive is underway in Massachusetts for similar license plates. https://www.wwlp.com/news/local-news/hampden-county/petition-tocreate-cold-war-veterans-specialty-license-plate-in-massachusetts/

As explained above, the MOFW recognizes its Cold War Veterans for their service. This is a possible line of effort for State Commanderies to work alongside other Veterans organizations to expand such recognition in meaningful ways. The next anniversaries of the end of Cold War I should not pass without notice, as the relative global peace secured lasted three decades. As the following article points out, another Cold War is taking shape.

End Notes:

1. 116th CONGRESS, 2d Session, Senate Resolution 385, “Celebrating the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the reunification of both Germany and Europe, and the spread of democracy around the world.” https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS116sres385ats/html/BILLS-116sres385ats.htm

2. Office of Congresswoman Chellie Pingree, Press Release, “Pingree Introduces Bipartisan Legislation to Recognize Cold War Veterans with Service Medal” October 27, 2021, https://pingree.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=3886 See also “H.R.5757 - Cold War Service Medal Act,” Congress.gov https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5757?s=1&r=90

3. Trinity Gruenberg, not dated, “Cold War vets get the cold shoulder” https://www.inhnews.com/coldwarvets

Cold War II Has Begun

By Arthur N. Tulak

Many defense analysts have made the case that the United States has entered into the Second Cold War, or simply Cold War II. The first Cold War was a state of conflict characterized not by direct military action between the two primary powers, the USA and the USSR, but rather by proxy wars, economic and political actions, propaganda, and espionage. Defense analysts write about new Cold Wars now emerging, or already existing, between the U.S. and Russia, and between the U.S. and China.

Regarding the US/Russia Cold War II, Andrey Kozyrev, the former Russian Foreign Minister from 1991-1996 provided his perspectives on the 30th anniversary of the end of the Cold War at an event held by the Wilson Center on Dec 9, 2021, to warn that Russia would soon move against the West over the future of Ukraine. 1 His remarks proved true just two months later, when Russia launched a major, multiple axes offensive into Ukraine. George Kennan, the author of our Cold War doctrine of containment had warned in 1998 to avoid policy positions that might start a new Cold War , saying “I think [NATO expansion] is the beginning of a new Cold War. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake.” 2 Cold War II is not just the United States against Russia via proxy war in Ukraine, as Communist China has been acknowledged by many as an adversary in Cold War II. The 2022 U.S. National Defense Strategy singles out Communist China “as our most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge for the Department” and establishes as a priority “Deterring aggression, while being prepared to prevail in conflict when necessary, prioritizing the PRC challenge in the Indo-Pacific, then the Russia challenge in Europe.”3

One of the commonly accepted characteristics of Cold War I was a competing set of military alliances. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was established in 1949 to counter the Warsaw Pact of In his 2018 article “Welcome to Cold War II” Michael Lind made the case that as in Cold War I, new alliances were forming that created competing and incompatible blocs.4 Russia and China are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Russia and China now have a bilateral “partnership without limits” that in some ways resembles the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, as each side creates maneuver space for the other. As Stephen Kotkin Explains, “Stalin’s pact with Hitler in 1939 enabled the Soviet dictator to seize and transform Eastern Poland into Western Ukraine, while also snatching for Ukraine pieces of Slovakia and Romania.”5 Russia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, formed on October 7, 2002, following after the Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992. The CSTO is a military alliance with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. On the other side, in addition to supporting the growth of the NATO membership, the U.S. has also developed new alliance and military cooperation structures, to include the Australia, United Kingdom, and United States Treaty (AUKUS). According the U.S. General Accounting Office, under the Biden Administration, he quadrilateral defense and security dialogue (known as the ‘Quad’) comprised of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, has, since Biden took office, “focused on areas beyond traditional security … [and]...concerns about China’s growing influence and military assertiveness appear to undergird the initiatives.”6 Mr. Lind noted that the Quad “ is widely viewed as a ‘de-facto anti-Chinese alliance.’”7 In addition to these efforts, the U.S. has invigorated and renewed defense agreements with the Philippines. Niall explains how our new National Defense Strategy describes the current state of peacetime competition among great powers to shape a new world order, which is precisely what Cold War I was about when it started.

A second characteristic of a Cold War is that of sanctions regimes. During Cold War I, the U.S. established in 1949 the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM), that it imposed on its Allies to support, to block the USSR from obtaining western technology and other goods.8 The U.S. then established a second sanction regime on Communist China known as CHINCOM in 1952.9 The U.S. Congress has recommended bringing back COCOM in concert with the European Union to control trade with Communist China.10 The U.S. is currently leading an ever-expanding, globally-coordinate sanction regime against Russia in cooperation with its Allies and partners. As the State Dept. explains, “Since February 2022, the United States and our partners and Allies have coordinated to use export controls and sanctions to restrict Russia's access to advanced technology , which has degraded the Russian weapons industry's ability to produce and stockpile weapons to replace those that have been destroyed in the war.” 11

Cold War II Has Begun (continued).

A third characteristic of a Cold War is the use of proxy wars, where in Cold War I, the client states of the Super Powers “engaged in local wars, that they armed and financed, enlarging and prolonging local conflicts by turning them into proxy wars.”12 The United States is now engaged in a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine that shares many characteristics with America’s support of the Afghan resistance fighters against the invading Soviet Armies 1979-1989, where the U.S. provide arms, but did not send forces into Afghanistan. Many analysts have already reached this conclusion. Hal Brands explains “Proxy wars are longstanding tools of great-power rivalry because they allow one side to bleed the other without a direct clash of arms” listing Nicaragua and Afghanistan in the 1980s as classic examples.13 Mr. Brands adds “The key to the strategy is to find a committed local partner a proxy willing to do the killing and dying and then load it up with the arms, money and intelligence needed to inflict shattering blows on a vulnerable rival. That’s just what Washington and its allies are doing to Russia today.” Mr. Brands adds that America and NATO have helped Ukraine to “kill vast numbers of Russian soldiers more than Moscow lost in its decade-long quagmire in Afghanistan.” According to Chuck Todd of NBC News, “The U.S. is fighting a proxy war in Ukraine” and noting that the U.S. is not pushing back on Russia’s messaging that the U.S. is indeed in a proxy war against them.14

A fourth characteristic of a Cold War has been arms races for strategic nuclear weapons and the threat of nuclear war. In Cold War I, the “missile gap” vis-à-vis the Soviets was a major concern, as Soviet efforts to outpace the U.S. in the development and fielding of more numerous and more powerful nuclear weapons appeared to be succeeding. We are once again in a nuclear arms race, this time against multiple nuclear powers, all of whom are working hard to increase their capabilities to strike the American Heartland. Writing for the National Interest, James Carroll penned an article titled: “It’s Only Been 30 Years Since the End of the Cold War Why Are We Starting a New One?” In this article, he points out that “A new Cold War is underway, with East-West hostilities quickening; a new arms race has begun.”15 The Communist Chinese are now fully engaged in a race for nuclear superiority with the United States. ADM Charles Richards in 2021 described Communist China’s surging nuclear armament efforts: “We are witnessing a strategic breakout by China. The explosive growth and modernization of its nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I describe as breathtaking, and, frankly, that word breathtaking may not be enough.”16 in his testimony before Congress, explained that “China is already capable of executing any plausible nuclear employment strategy within their region and will soon be able to do so at intercontinental ranges as well. They are no longer a “lesser included case” of the pacing nuclear threat, Russia.”17 ADM Richard also described Russia’s increasing nuclear strength: “Over the last decade, Russia has recapitalized roughly 80 percent of its strategic nuclear forces, strengthening its overall combat potential with an imposing array of modernization efforts and novel weapons programs designed to ensure a retaliatory strike capability by all three triad legs.”18 Both Communist China and Russia have developed hypersonic glide delivery vehicles that can deliver nuclear weapons in a flight profile that our air defense systems will have difficulty tracking and engaging. The Russians have fielded the Avanguard, and the Communist Chinese, the DF21 missile, both of which are a game-changer in any conflict against the U.S.19 Communist North Korea recently declared itself a “nuclear weapons state” in opposition to the United Nations, and in spite of America’s efforts to slow its nuclear program.20 On February 18, 2023, Communist North Korea conducted an operational demonstration launch of its Hwasong-15 ICBM, first tested in 2017. According to Japan’s defense minister, Yasukazu Hamada, the missile’s flight path, speed and trajectory revealed a range of 8,700 miles, which is enough to reach anywhere in the entire continental United States.21 According to Alexander Ward, the North Korean regime may have enough of these ICBMs to overwhelm the 44 ground-based interceptors based in Alaska and California to destroy incoming missiles, or independent reentry vehicle warheads.22

Is Cold War II getting hotter?

Niall Ferguson is one of many analysts who say that we are already in Cold War II, and that these conditions may well lead to World War III.23 Russia’s top diplomat said the invasion of Ukraine no longer represents a proxy war, “but rather a “real” war between Russia and the West.”24 U.S. intelligence now suggests China is considering providing arms and ammunition to Russia.25 The Chinese Communist Party has already declared a “Peoples’ War” against the United States in May 2019.26 As the U.S. Dept. of Defense China Military Power Report explains

Cold War II Has Begun (continued).

“Contemporary Chinese writings link people’s war to national mobilization and participation in wartime as a wholeof-nation concept of warfare.”27 Communist China has also conducted live fire missile exercises over Taiwan, and incessant intrusions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), as well as maritime intrusions of its coastal Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ) in an attempt to demoralize the Taiwan populace and to wear down Taiwan’s military response capabilities for when it decides to attack. Gen. Michael Minihan, former Director of Operations J3, Chief of Staff, and Deputy Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and currently Commander of the Air Mobility Command has written that a full-scale invasion of Taiwan could come as early as 2025.28 As the one year proxy war in Ukraine, and the rising tensions over the Taiwan Straits have shown, Cold War II is indeed getting hotter.

End Notes:

1. Remarks of Andrei Kozyrev, Dec. 19, 2021, at the Wilson Center’s “Perspectives on the 30th Anniversary of 1991 and the Collapse of the Soviet Union,” https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/perspectives-30th-anniversary-1991-and-collapse-soviet-union

2. Tom Z. Collina, November 9, 2019, “The Cold War Ended 30 Years Ago. Why Are Things With Russia So Bad? -Critics said NATO expansion would start a new Cold War. They were right.” https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/11/cold-war-ended-30-years-ago-so-why-are-things-russia-so-bad/161200/

3. United States Department of Defense, March 28, 2022, Fact Sheet: 2022 National Defense Strategy, https://media.defense.gov/2022/ Mar/28/2002964702/-1/-1/1/NDS-FACT-SHEET.PDF

4. Michael Lind, May 2018, ‘Welcome to Cold War II’ The National Interest, May/June 2018, No. 155, pp. 9-21, https://www.jstor.org/ stable/10.2307/26557462

5. Stephen Kotkin, February 19, 2023, Washington Free Beacon, 'The War in Ukraine Today and Yesterday' https://freebeacon.com/culture/the-war-inukraine-today-and-yesterday/amp/

6. U.S. General Accounting Office, July 25, 2022, The “Quad”: Security Cooperation Among the United States, Japan, India, and Australia”, https://sgp.fas.org/ crs/row/IF11678.pdf

7. Ibid.

8. Scott Jones, April 9, 2021, ‘Think twice before bringing back the COCOM export control regime,’ Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/ commentary/2021/04/09/think-twice-before-bringing-back-the-cocom-export-control-regime/

9. Ibid.

10. Ibid.

11. The U.S. Department of State, Office of The Spokesperson October 20, 2022, Fact Sheet, “The Impact of Sanctions and Export Controls on The Russian Federation.” https://www.state.gov/the-impact-of-sanctions-and-export-controls-on-the-russian-federation/#:~:text=Since%20February%202022%2C% 20the%20United,been%20destroyed%20in%20the%20war.

12. Niall Ferguson, October 22, 2022, Bloomberg, “How Cold War II Could Turn Into World War III” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-1023/cold-war-2-with-china-and-russia-is-becoming-ww3-niall-ferguson

13. Hal Brands, May 10, 2022, “Russia Is Right: The U.S. Is Waging a Proxy War in Ukraine,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/russia-is-right-the-usis-waging-aproxy-war-in-ukraine/2022/05/10/2c8058a4-d051-11ec-886b-df76183d233f_story.html

14. Chuck Todd, NBC News, “U.S. Is Fighting A Proxy War In Ukraine, Chuck Todd Says” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRjAkKOjI9g

15. James Carroll, The Nation, “It’s Only Been 30 Years Since the End of the Cold War Why Are We Starting a New One?” https://www.thenation.com/ article/archive/trump-putin-cold-war/

16. Aaron Mehta, August 12, 2021, ‘STRATCOM Chief Warns Of Chinese ‘Strategic Breakout’, Breaking Defense, https://breakingdefense.com/2021/08/ stratcom-chief-warns-of-chinese-strategic-breakout/

17. ADM Charles A. Richards, Statement Of Charles A. Richard Commander United States Strategic Command Before the Senate Committee on Armed Services 20 April 2021.

18. Ibid

18. Sakshi Tiwari, December 12, 2022, US Identifies China’s DF-17 Hypersonic Missile As ‘Biggest Threat’ That Could Strike Critical Military Bases’ https:// eurasiantimes.com/us-identifies-chinas-df-17-hypersonic-missile-as-biggest-threat/

19. Associated Press, September 10, 202, “North Korea declares itself a nuclear weapons state,” National Public Radio, https:// www.npr.org/2022/09/10/1122196021/north-korea-declares-itself-a-nuclear-weapons-state

20. Choe Sang-Hun, February 18, 2023, “North Korea Launches ICBM,” The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/18/world/asia/north-koreamissile-launch.html

21. Alexander Ward, 8 FEB 2023, Politico, 'North Korea displays enough ICBMs to overwhelm U.S. defense system against them' https://www.politico.com/ news/2023/02/08/north-korea-missile-capability-icbms-00081993

22. Paul D. Shinkman, Jan. 23, 2023, “Russia Now Engaged in a ‘Real’ War With the West Over Ukraine: Lavrov,” https://www.usnews.com/news/worldreport/articles/2023-01-23/russia-now-engaged-in-a-real-war-with-the-west-over-ukraine-lavrov

23. NewsMax, February 19, 2023, “US Warns China Not to Send Weapons to Russia for Ukraine war.” https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukrainewar/2023/02/19/id/1109293/

24. Center for Security Policy, “The CCP Is At War With America,” Report of Team B II, June 22, 2022, p. 1. See also, Bloomberg News, May 14, 2019, “China Vows ‘People’s War’ as Trade Fight Takes Nationalist Turn,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019

05

14/china vows people s war as trade fight -takes-nationalist-turn?leadSource=uverify%20wall

25. U.S. Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020 Annual Report to Congress, 26. Mike Tsukamoto, Jan. 30, 2023, “Read for Yourself: The Full Memo from AMC Gen. Mike Minihan,” Air & Space Forces Magazine, https:// www.airandspaceforces.com/read-full-memo-from-amc-gen-mike-minihan/