OCTOBER 2017 PRESENTATION
MIAMI-DADE MARKET OVERVIEWÂ ANALYZING 2012 - 2016 & 2017 TRENDS
VILLAZZO REALTY REPORT BY LISA BLAKE
MARKET TRENDS & OVERVIEW
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Miami-Dade county is known for its dynamic and robust market trends. Both the rental & the sales markets have seen significant changes in the last 5-years. For sales, according to the Miami Association of Realtors (MAR), the number of sales of single-family homes in Miami-Dade slowed by 1.3%, while sales of condominiums & townhomes slowed by 17.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016 when compared to Q4 of 2015. Even though closed sales in both market segments slowed, prices in the single-family market were up 14.1% and condos/townhouses were up 6.1% year over year. However, MAR reports that the home prices have continued to increase through 2017 despite the slowdown in sales. The median sale price of single-family homes in Miami-Dade went up by 14% in the fourth quarter of 2016 when compared to the previous year. The housing price index continues to indicate that the greatest housing price appreciation is occurring in the lowest tier of the market.
MARKET TRENDS & OVERVIEW Thus far in 2017, Miami Beach has already surpassed last year's highest closed sale of $19,950,300 on North Bay Rd, with a staggering closing price of $22,575,000 on Pine Tree Dr, in February followed closely by a sale on Venetian Islands for a modern brand new construction home selling for $22,000,000. This marks a sale price of $2,711/sqft slightly higher than that of 2016 of $2,701/sqft, but the year is not over yet! Â When analyzing the rental market, rent, as a share of household income is much higher (and in some cases double) than the share nationally, and the average share of the 25 largest counties in the country. The rental market in Miami-Dade, specifically the areas of Brickell, Downtown & Edgewater saw a strong & gradual increase in rental prices in the last 5-years with a slowdown starting in the beginning of the first quarter of 2017. The prices took a small dip and have since plateaued with little change since.
“There’s an oversupply of brand new luxury condos that have dropped up to 25% in value. Those sales are not reflective of the overall Miami Beach market of single-family homes under the $2 million price range, which remains strong.” - Ron Shuffield, CEO of EWM Realty International
“Those numbers reflect an unusually high confidence in buying at this moment,” - Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of the real estate consulting firm Miller Samuel. “Miami is definitely higher than six months. We have 34,000 condos in the pipeline in Miami-Dade County alone. There’s a ton of new condos being built at a time when the amount of existing condos on the market is already too high." "Anything that is on the sand or the ocean will always maintain its value and continue to go up.”
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- Carlos Rosso, president of the Related Group’s condo development division.
MARKET TRENDS 2017: BUYERS MARKET More than 70% of industry experts think it’s time to own.
LUXURY MARKET Market Trends The luxury markets in Miami-Dade saw a decline in the number of transactions across all segments causing some volatile pricing as a result. Some markets gained, while others lost. Overall, Miami’s luxury markets recorded winning submarkets 3 to 1 on price growth even with increased inventory. This trend was highlighted at the onstart of 2016 with sellers having high price expectations, with market price growing, even while transaction volume fell. Available inventory has also been increasing, extending the time on the market. In 2016, 880 of Miami-Dade’s Single Family home sales were closed for over $1M+. When observing the luxury market in the $5M-$10M range, inventory is up nearly 25% and pricing was down by 3.5%. The most vulnerable price point is for the homes listed in the $1M-$5M range with 36% more inventory and 9% fewer transactions. Thus far in 2017, there have been a total of 36 waterfront single-family homes sold in Miami Beach & Key Biscayne with a high of $22,575,000 for $2,711/sqft sold on Pine Tree Dr and a low of $1,525,000, with an average in the area of $6,883,710 or $1,253/sqf and 221 days on the market. As of October 2017, there were a total of 178 waterfront sales in Miami-Dade over 1M+ with the highest sale occurring at the Gables Estates for $43,700,000 followed by a $22,575,000 on Pine Tree Dr and $22,000,000 on Venetian Islands.
WF
DRY
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
As of October 2017, the total number of Waterfront Single-Family homes sold in Miami-Dade:178 Total Sold With an Avg. of $744/sqft
As of October 2017, the total number of Non-Waterfront Single Family homes over $1M+ sold in Miami-Dade: 561 Total Sold With an Avg. of $484/sqft
In Miami Beach & Key Biscayne: 36 Total Sold With an Avg. of $1,253/sqft Low of $514/sqft High of $2,711/sqft
In Miami Beach & Key Biscayne: 98 Total Sold With an Avg. of $656/sqft Low of $226/sqft High of $1,341/sqft
WATERFRONT & NON-WATERFRONT WF Market Trends
Non-WF Market Trends
In 2016 the total number of homes sold decreased by
While non-waterfront homes in Miami-Dade have seen a
12% when compared to the previous year.
continuous increase in their price per sqft, going as far
The price per square foot also decreased by 9% from
back as 2012 with $134/sqft on average vs now with
2015 to 2016.
$198/sqft on average.
The number of Single-Family Homes available for sale
When comparing 2015 to 2016, there has also been an
increased in 2016 and resulted in a buyers market with a
increase in 9% for price per square foot and therefore a
surplus of product, decreasing the total number of sales.
9% growth in non-waterfront pricing. This is a good
This is after a steady increase in the number of homes
performing market. This of course represents a majority
sold since 2013.
of the housing stock of $1M or less.
MIAMI BEACH ISLANDS OVERVIEW ANALYSIS 2012 - 2016 & 2017
MIAMI BEACH Miami Beach is an iconic city with luxurious waterfront residences that offer large homes equipped with pools & docks right in proximity to many of the city’s major happenings and entertainment centers. $1,253
KEY BISCAYNE Key Biscayne is a family oriented community with nice beaches, protected natural parks and top schools. Enter the community through the iconic Rickenbacker Causeway and enjoy everything the island paradise has to offer. $1,691
OVERALL
These areas often have a limited availability of homes & thus there are only a few transactions per year, resulting in varying averages. The Miami Beach Islands offer a unique product due to their location delivering privacy & security while next to the city's major hotspots. 36 SALES
2012 - 2016
KEY BISCAYNE
This area saw a healthy increase in the price per square foot from 2012 - 2015. Increasing from $1,278 (with 16 total homes sold) in 2012 to $1,722 in 2015 (with 11 total homes sold) However from 2015 - 2016 there was a 36% decrease in average PPSF dropping to a 5-year low of $1,110 by the end of 2016 (16 homes sold). Therefore by the fourth quarter of 2016, the average price per square foot in Key Biscayne was lower than that in 2012.
IN 2017 2 Waterfront Homes Sold & 27 Non-Waterfront Homes as of October 2017.
SOLD IN 2017: 310 Harbor Dr: Expansive home built in 2005 and spreading over 9,617 sqft. Sporting a 4-car garage, with open bay views, 120ft on the water sitting on a huge lot of 23,772 sqft. Sold for $1,976/sqft, $19M.
SOLD IN 2017 Built in 2011 and offering 100ft on the water, this home spread over 6,042 sqft and sits on a 15,000 sqft lot. Listed for $9.35M and sold for $8.5M, $1,407/sqft.
2012 - 2017
$2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0
Min
Max
Avg
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
2012 - 2016
The average price per square foot for homes has been oscillating in the past 5-years with a small pool of sold inventory to compare year over year. Ranging from an average price per square foot of $1,041/sqft in 2013 (with 11 homes sold) to a high of $1,324/sqft in 2015 (with 9 homes sold). In 2016 there was a total of 12 transactions with an average of $1,209/sqft. This is a 9% decrease from 2015 and a 1% increase since 2012.
PALM/ HIBISCUS/ STAR ISLAND 2012 - 2017
IN 2017 5 Waterfront Homes Sold as of October 2017
SOLD IN 2017: As of October 2017, the average price per square foot of homes sold is $1,355 with 5 homes sold thus far. Up from $1,209/sqft the average for last year.
$1,800 $1,350 $900 $450 $0
SOLD IN 2017 Minimum Sale: $2.7M Highest Sale: $7.5M Avg: $4.5M
Min
Max
Avg
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
2012 - 2016
VENETIAN ISLANDS
Venetian Islands saw a continuous increase in price per square foot since 2012 with $855/sqft. The area saw it’s highest figures in 2015 (with 18 closed waterfront sales) at $1,4313/sqft. Then a dip by 14% from 2015 to 2016 and ending 2016 with an average of $1,220/sqft.
2012 - 2017
There's been a 43% increase in price per square foot since 2012.
IN 2017
$2,800
17 total waterfront homes sold on Venetian Islands
$2,100 SOLD IN 2017: As of October 2017, the average price per square foot for homes sold is $1,4,71/sqft.
$1,400 $700 $0
SOLD IN 2017 Minimum Sale: $3.3M Highest Sale: $22M Avg: $7M
Min
Max
Avg
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
2012 - 2016
SUNSET ISLANDS
There weren’t any closed sales in 2016 on sunset island. Likely due to less “deals” being available and owner staying confident with their prices. The prices per square feet increased by $967/sqft to $1,327 from 2012 - 2015 with the highest average being $1,463/sqft in 2014. With 37% increase 2012.
2012 - 2017
17 sales in 2012 with an avg PPSF of $967, 12 sales in 2013 with $1,029/sqft on average, 10 sales in 2014 with a peak of $1,463/sqft and 7 total sales in 2015 with an avg of $1,327/sqft
IN 2017 1 closed sale on Sunset Islands as of 10/26/17
$1,500 $1,125
SOLD IN 2017:
$750
Listed for $5.9M sold for $4.3M. This home needed renovations and had more of a “beach house” feel with 75ft on the water.
$375
SOLD IN 2017 1 closed sale thus far in 2017 for $1,226/sqft
$0
Avg 2013
Avg 2014
Avg 2015
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
COCONUT GROVE & CORAL GABLES OVERVIEW ANALYSIS 2012 - 2016 & 2017
COCONUT GROVE This is one of the best areas in Miami in terms of value. The revitalization of Coconut Grove’s restaurants & entertainment centers, it’s top schools and historic traditions have given the area a strong foundation. $882
CORAL GABLES Coral Gables is one of the oldest & most historic cities in Miami, a family oriented community also offering top schools and restaurants.
$631
GABLES ESTATES & COCOPLUM Gables Estates represents the highest luxury pricing in the area with grand estates and homes. Cocoplum is a highly secured enclave nestled in the heart of Coral Gables. $1,385 $460
COCONUT GROVE
2012 - 2016
The average price per square foot for all waterfront single family homes has significantly increased over the last 5-years. From 2012 ($518/sqft) with a dip in 2013 ($483/sqft) to the current figure of $984/sqft. 40% increase in Average Price Per Square foot from 2015 to 2016 90% increase in Average Price Per Square foot from 2012 - 2016. In terms of appreciation per square foot, this area is the strongest and it’s one of the most stable markets. For non-waterfront sales, Coconut Grove is the most sought after residential neighborhood in Miami. Since 2012, this area has increased its nonwaterfront single family home’s price per square foot by 60%.
IN 2017 4 total waterfront homes sold in Coconut Grove
SOLD IN 2017 Minimum Sale: $5.3M Highest Sale: $12.4M Avg: $7.9M
2012 - 2017
$1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0
Min
Max
Avg
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
2012 - 2016
CORAL GABLES
Coral Gables has also seen a strong increase since 2012, with a 49% increase in the average price per square foot from 2012 - 2016. Increasing from $553/sqft to $823/sqft in the said 5-year period. When observing the increase from 2015 to 2016, the PPSF increased by 12%.
2012 - 2017
IN 2017 A total of 10 WF homes sold in Coral Gables as of 10/26/2017. For non-waterfront single family homes, there have been 100 closed sales thus far.
$850 $680 $510
SOLD IN 2017:
$340
The average price per sqft has gone down since 2016 going from $823 to the current average of $626/sqft
$170
SOLD IN 2017 Minimum Sale: $4.39M Highest Sale: $1.35M Avg: $2.67M
$0
Min
Max
Avg
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
2012 - 2016
GABLES ESTATES
Represents the highest luxury pricing in the area. Gables Estates had an increase of 24% since 2015 and 5% since 2012. In 2012 the PPSF was $1,095 taking a dip in 2013, and then increasing to it’s current figure of $1,155/sqft. When comparing the 5-year average of all of the comparable surrounding areas (Coconut Grove, Coral Gables & Cocoplum), Gables Estates has the highest average price per square foot by at least $387/sqft.
IN 2017 There have been 3 sales thus far
SOLD IN 2017: 1 Casuarina Concourse closed at $43.7M for an expansive estate nestled on a 3.6 acre corner double lot with 937ft on the water.
SOLD IN 2017 Minimum Sale: $5.9M Highest Sale: $43.7M Avg: $20.7M
2012 - 2017
$2,100 $1,575 $1,050 $525 $0
Min
Max
Avg
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
2012 - 2016
COCOPLUM
Cocoplum has a small sample size and yet it has seen an increase in the average price per square foot by 49% from 2015 to 2016. The number of transactions also increased from 2015 - 2016 period by 17% but decreased by 46% in 5years when analyzing 2012 - 2016.
In 2016, there were a total of 7 completed transactions for waterfront homes with the average PPSF of $954/sqft. For the top 50% of this market, the average sales pricec in 2016 was $10.7M with a total of 3 transactions.
IN 2017 20 waterfront homes have sold in Cocoplum. 11 of the 20 homes sold closed at $1M+
SOLD IN 2017 In 2017, the average price per square foot in Cocoplum is $713, up from 2016 figures of $639/sqft but down from 2016 which averaged at $954/sqft.
SOLD IN 2017 Minimum Sale: $475K Highest Sale: $5.75M Avg: $2.18M
2012 - 2017
$850 $680 $510 $340 $170 $0
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Max
Avg
AVG PRICE/SQFT IN 2017
TOP CLOSINGS HIGHLIGHTS: ALL AREAS
Gables Estates: $43.7M in March 2017 Star Island: $28.14M in April 2014 Venetian Island: $22M in March 2017 Sunset Island: $16M in August 2014 Palm Island: $14.5M in August 2012 Coconut Grove: $34M in June 2016
2017 REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS: MIAMI-DADE LUXURY WF
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VILLAZZO REALTY REPORT BY LISA BLAKE