Most people hang ART on their wall
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From the Editors Desk Elections in Japan and Afghanistan. No contracts between Indonesia and drug companies for HINI vaccine. Catastrophic disaster from the typhoon in Taiwan. Major opposition to President Obama’s healthcare plan. Continuing demonstrations in Iran over election results. Uproar in the UK and US over the release of the Lockerbie bomber. One wonders what effect this all has on our lives. One can never be sure. However, one thing I have learnt over the years is that you have to look at things positively and be well informed on current issues. Reading through the pages of Asian Tigers magazine, is not only refreshing, its informative and gives expert commentary on what’s happening around the world. Please be sure to visit our website and feel free to send us any relevant questions to our articles that you may have.
Asian Tigers Editor in Chief Charles Greene
Managing Editor Mark Wayne
Contributors
Chris Champion David Bowden Steve Lunt Jack Dixon Bert Olbes Bruce Curran Michael Wilson Bernardo Villegas
Circulation Manager
Charlie Greene Editor in Chief
Bonnie Tsang
Production Manager Ferdie Ng
Design & Layout Paolo Yabao
編輯寄語
Design Assistants Chris Wood, Ma. Christina Roxas
日本和阿富汗大選；印尼與製藥公司的H1N1疫苗談判無果而終；超級颱風重創 台灣；奧巴馬總統的醫改計劃遭遇嚴峻挑戰；伊朗大選過後示威不斷；洛克比 空難主犯獲釋引發英美社會一片不滿。
Marketing & Advertising
這一切對我們的生活影響幾何？答案不得而知。不過，多年來我的一個感觸 是，凡事要向好的一面看，與時俱進的精神不可少。閱讀亞洲虎雜誌，不單令 人耳目一新，更有專家點評環球時事，讓人增廣見聞，大開眼界。敬候蒞臨亞 洲虎網站，歡迎您對我們的文章發表感想與意見。
Eric Wong editorial@asiantir.com
主編 Charlie Greene 謹啟
Janina Garcia garcia@asiantir.com
Editorial & Comments
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Contents
Malaysia
Economic Development for the country’s East Coast 24
9
Philippine Tourism
28
The Korean Wave
14 Australia
40 Typhoons & Telecoms
Features 9 The Philippines’ Triad of Dollar Earning Industries - Part 1/3 菲律賓創匯三駕馬車- 第1/3部 作者 / by Bert Olbes
14 Australia’s Economic Master Class 澳洲，經濟專業碩士生 作者 / by Chris Champion
16 The Goldman Sach’s Syndrome: Breaking through the BRIC Wall 高盛現象: 打破「金磚四國」壁壘 作者 / by Jack Dixon
24 Economic Development for Malaysia’s East Coast 馬來西亞東海岸的經濟發展 作者/by David Bowden
On the Cover:
28 The Korean Wave
Jakarta
「韓流」 作者/by Bruce Curran
33 What Drives the Oil Price? 誰動了油價？ 作者 / by John Dizon
37 The World’s Biggest Company Spreads its Wings 企業巨無霸再展宏圖 作者 / by Michael Wilson
20 Indonesia as a ModelEmerging Market 馬來西亞
40 Typhoons & Telecoms
作者 / by Bernardo Villegas
Departments
颱風與電訊 作者 / by Michael Wilson
45 Visual Decision Making: An Introduction
6
The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲 作者 / by Chris Champion
47 Technical Overview of Markets 50 ATIR Market Report
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
Asian Tiger News
The 數字的遊戲
Numbers
Game 專欄作者/by Chris Champion
Drink Central 酒之都 Talk about full circle. For years Hong Kong was the world’s greatest example of laissez-faire economics, a big component of which was its duty free status. Who needs high taxes and who needs import duties when you can just fill in your harbour, foot by foot, and create the world’s most expensive real estate? Not for nothing has Hong Kong been voted number one on the Index of Economic Freedom ever since the index was created in 1995. 談一個有關「周而復始」的話題。多年 以來，香港一直是自由經濟的世界典範， 這其中免稅制度功不可沒。試想，若能一 片片填海造地，不斷造出世界上最昂貴的 房地產，誰還需要高稅收，誰還稀罕進口 關稅？自從1995年經濟自由度指數誕生以 來，香港的經濟自由度始終獨佔鰲頭，這 番成績絕非浪得虛名。
It still sits atop the index, but it is no longer a duty free port. Once the British handed back their borrowed place, the reinstalled owners decided such a wealthy community without duty on alcohol and tobacco was just too much of a wasted opportunity. They started small, but you know what bureaucratic bean counters are like. From zero in the 1990s, the duty on wine had leapt to 80 per cent in 2006. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
Asian Tiger News
如今香港仍在這個指數上高居榜首，但 已難符免稅港之名。英國交還香港主權 後，新政府覺得不對如此富裕之地徵收煙 酒稅未免可惜。起初不過是小額徵稅，但 官僚們自有小算盤，結果酒稅從九十年代 的零稅率，一路飆升到2006年的80%。
Then something strange happened. The duty was cut to 40 percent in 2007. And in February 2008, it was abolished. Back to zero. 後來的發展有些匪夷所思：2007年稅率 降至40%，2008年2月徹底廢除，一切恢復 如初。
There was method in this madness – Hong Kong has just been named the world’s third-biggest trading hub for wine. It’s an industry worth about US$130 million and the now-regular Christie’s International auctions in Hong Kong are where the great wine snobs of the world gather.
此舉背後另有深意 – 不久前香港當選世 界第三大葡萄酒貿易中心。這是一個價值 1.3億美元的產業，如今經常在香港舉行的 佳士得國際拍賣會上，雲集了來自世界各 地的葡萄酒擁躉。
How do you beat that? The Hong Kong Trade Development Council has
plans to beat the wine success story with a commodity closer to the Chinese heart, tea. It is talking with tea sellers and buyers to use the city as a hub, citing its port facilities and proximity to China. The global tea industry is worth US$6 billion a year. China is the world’s biggest tea producer, Russia is the largest importer and Sri Lanka is the top exporter. 不知你有何感想？香港貿 易發展局準備把葡萄酒的成 功經驗移植到茶葉上，因為 飲茶才是中國人的最愛。 貿發局正在不遺餘力宣傳 香港的港口設施和毗鄰中 國的地理優勢，希望憑藉 香港的樞紐地位吸引茶商 和買家。全球茶產業每年 價值高達60億美元，中國是 世界頭號產茶國，俄國是最 大進口國，斯里蘭卡則是最大 出口國。
“We have the infrastructure and cultural sophistication to become a tea hub,” said Raymond Yip, assistant executive director of the Trade Development Council. The Hong Kong plan means a competitive battle with the likes of Dubai, which opened a tea trading hub in 2004, and targets the Indian, Sri Lankan and East African markets. 貿發局助理總裁葉澤恩 說： 「本港擁有一流基礎設施
和深厚文化氛圍，完全有能力成為茶葉 之都。」香港的藍圖可謂與杜拜針鋒相 對，後者於2004年開設茶葉貿易中心， 把目標鎖定在印度 ，斯里蘭卡及東非市 場。
Tea is central to the Hong Kong diet. The city’s seven million people consumed 1.36 kilograms per head in 2004, almost triple the world average. Across the border, the mainlanders are only drinking 420 grams a year, but this is expected to rise quickly in line with consumer wealth, spelling opportunity for Hong Kong. 茶在港人的飲食中佔據重要地位。 2004年，七百萬港人之中，人均飲茶1.36千 克，幾近世界平均水平的三倍。反觀中國 內地，人均年飲茶量僅420克，不過隨著 國民財富的增長，茶葉消費有望迅 速提升，這正是香港的商機 所在。
Can it rival wine for elitism, snobbery and prestige? The Sun Sing Tea company in Hong Kong charges US$1,000 for 10 grams of a rare 1900 Pu’er, and such teas are prized both by collectors and as traditional gifts to important business clients. A good tea even mellows with age and rises in value.
茶能如紅酒一般成為精英文化 ，高尚 生活和尊貴地位的象徵嗎？香港新星茶 莊珍藏的1900年普洱茶，10克就能賣到 上千美元，此茶頗受收藏家追捧，亦作 為傳統禮品饋贈商業貴客。上等好茶曆 久彌香，價格自然水漲船高。
Hone Kong may remain top of the Index of Economic Freedom for a while yet. 看來香港的經濟自由桂 冠還能再戴一陣子。
They said... 名人名言... “The last stage of fitting the product to the market is fitting the market to the product.” — Clive James 「讓產品適應市場的最高境界是找到和產品相匹 配的市場。」—克里夫·詹姆士 SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
Asian Tiger News
Worthless Opinions 毫無意義的「民意」
Where would we be without reliable economic modelling based on objective and scientifically managed surveys? According to an American economics professor, it’s a moot point. The question should actually be: where would we be with reliable economic modelling based on objective and scientifically collected data? 若是沒有建立在客觀科學的調查基礎之 上的可靠經濟模型，我們將會怎樣？一位 美國經濟學教授覺得這是一個偽命題，其 實應該這樣問：若是有建立在客觀科學地 收集資料基礎之上的可靠經濟模型，我們 將會怎樣？
The unnamed professor doesn’t trust surveys. He reportedly told a colleague, “Economists pay no attention to what people say, only to what they do.”
這位不願透露姓名的教授根本不相信民 意調查。據說他曾跟同事講道： 「經濟學家 不關心人們說什麼，只關心人們做什麼。」
It’s a view shared by the UK’s Royal Statistical Society, which believes that a survey is unreliable unless it has a response rate of more than 65%. This rules out pretty much every survey in the world. It also invalidates the result of every American election. 英國皇家統計學會也是這麼看，其認為 民意調查的回應率要超過65%才算可靠。 世界上沒有幾個調查能做到這一點。照此 衡量，歷屆美國大選的結果都是無效的。
Senior lady using headphones for hearing impaired and voting on touch screen machine
A MOMENT IN HISTORY
The Guitar Man 吉他宗師
Les Paul, who was to the guitar what Yehudi Menuhin and Antonio Stradivari – combined – were to the violin, has died in New York at the age of 94. It is sad news for all lovers of electronic and jazz guitar music, but it is interesting news for all those involved in an industry which Les Paul created – collecting the guitars he made. The great Les Paul “standard flame top” instruments from the 1950s have changed hands for more than US$400,000, but now the great man is gone, what will happen to their value? There is only one way their value can go. Hurry. 利斯·保羅之於吉他，正如耶胡迪·梅紐 因和安東尼奧·斯特拉蒂瓦里之於小提琴。 近日保羅於紐約去世，享年94歲，這對所有 電吉他和爵士吉他樂迷不啻是個噩耗，然而 有些人卻從中覓得商機 – 收藏保羅所作的 吉他。創作於五十年代的那款經典火焰頭吉 他，幾經易手，身價已逾40萬美元，而今大 師駕鶴西去，傳世遺作又該價值幾何？答案 是只漲不跌。欲購從速。|AT|
史上一刻 John Maynard Keynes had a way of putting real life into economic
perspective, even early in his career. When in his 20s, he went to Africa, travelling with a friend from Cambridge named Walter Sprott. Keynes and Sprott one day had their shoes cleaned by some native boys, after which Keynes offered a small tip. Sprott protested, suggesting something more generous. Keynes reportedly declined, saying, “I will not be a party to debasing the currency.”
凱恩斯年輕的時候就愛把經濟理論套用
到現實生活中。二十多歲時，有次他跟劍 橋大學的朋友史普魯特結伴遊歷非洲。一 日，二人找當地幾個小童擦鞋，過後凱恩 斯付了幾文小費，史普魯特看不過去，覺 得該大方一些。不料凱恩斯振振有詞道： 「本人不想做貨幣貶值的幫兇。」
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
Economy
菲律賓創匯三駕馬車
The Philippines’ Triad of
Dollar Earning Industries Part 1: Tourism
There are three shining,
第1/3部
作者/by Bert Olbes
萎縮。「三駕馬車」具體是指業務流程外判
dollar-earning industry stars in the （BPO — 即呼叫中心，醫療及法律服務， Philippines – and their pronounced, 建築與工程規劃，動漫等），海外勞工 collective existence is deterrence （下稱「外勞」）及「大步流星」的旅遊 to what might otherwise result in 業。本文乃是三部曲中的第一部，將著重 economic contraction, if not the 分析旅遊業，下兩個系列將分析另外兩個 country’s downright financial downfall. 產業，討論他們是如何吸引不可或缺的寶 The collective triad, broken down, 貴美鈔。 The notable increases in recent years specifically points to the Business Process (figures to be revealed later in this writeOutsourcing (BPO – i.e. call centers, up) of the influx of foreign tourists are medical and legal transcription services, impressive indeed, being that for a decade architectural and engineering plans, or two before the mid-2000s, the country animation, etc) arena, the Overseas had been all but mired in a foreign Foreign Workers (OFW) phenomenon tourism annual influx of a mere million and the “boon” in Tourism. In this visitors, even dipping to as low as eight first part of a three-part series, it is the to nine hundred thousand. Admittedly, Tourism industry that will be analyzed, there had been attributable problems while the next two issues will include analyses of the other two aforementioned relating to less than ideal security conditions accompanied by intermittent sources of valuable and indispensable travel advisories from Western foreign greenbacks. governments, basic lack of infrastructure in potentially attractive areas outside of 菲律賓有三大金光閃閃的創匯產業—三足 major cities – including, but not limited 鼎立，齊頭並進，即便沒能徹底阻止菲國 to, good highways, adequate airport 經濟滑坡，亦有效抵擋了可能出現的經濟
terminals and runways, medical facilities, etc. Such revelations and the yearafter-year anemic tourism results were, rightfully so, no less than regrettable.
回望二十世紀中葉前的一二十年，每年 到菲律賓的外國旅遊人數僅為百萬人， 最低的時候甚至只有八九十萬人，近幾 年來菲外國遊客增長明顯（數據詳見後 文），令人刮目相看。不可否認，個中原 因在於安全狀況不盡人意，外加西方國家 政府間或發出的旅行建議，主要城市以外 的潛力景點缺乏基本的基礎設施（包括但 不限於路況良好的高速公路，足夠的機場 候機樓及跑道，醫療設施等）。此等條件 之下，旅遊業連年欠收，雖相當遺憾，但 情有可原。
Considering that neighboring countries such as Thailand during the same period were already taking in millions of visitors a year, something had to be done. The land formerly known as Siam had been already reaching between eight and 10 million foreign entrants in recent years. 同期泰國等鄰國的年接待遊客量已達數 百萬，是時候有所動作了。泰國這片舊稱
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
10
Economy
Foreign visitors arriving in
the Philippines quickly grasp the natural beauty and endless tropical paradise of sand, sea and lush vegetation...
暹羅的土地，近幾年入境外國人數已達 800到1000萬之間。
Action Warranted 採取行動 Something had to be done about the Philippines’ dismal shortfall in tourism numbers. What with its 7,107 islands, its more than 36,000 kilometers of coastline and a myriad of other attractions, foreign visitors arriving in the Philippines quickly grasp the natural beauty and endless tropical paradise of sand, sea and lush vegetation; a genuinely warm, hospitable and always smiling people; a literacy rate of over 92 percent (which is among the highest in Asia) the world’s third largest English-speaking country. They see the nation’s convenient and strategic location of less than four hours flying time to and from most regional capitals, as well as international blend of people making a visitor’s experience
Countless malls in the country make the Philippines also a destination for shopping
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
an extra special one for every type of foreign visitor or resident – history buffs, shopping aficionados, sports enthusiasts and those who enjoy fine dining and superb nocturnal life and entertainment. Within the city and outside Manila are picturesque provinces that offer rural or secluded options, including action-packed activities of every sort to avail of. 到菲旅遊人數寥寥的慘淡狀況必須採取 行動加以改善。菲律賓擁有7,107座島嶼， 逾36,000千米的海岸線，數不盡的優美景 勝，碧海銀沙，郁樹叢林，讓外國遊客立 即感受到秀色天成，廣袤無垠的熱帶天 堂氣息；還有笑容滿面的民眾，讓你 感受到國民識字率逾92%（亞洲最 高），世界第三大英語國家的熱情 好客。菲律賓地處戰略要塞，交通 便利，乘飛機不到四小時便能往返 區內多國首府，來自世界各地的人 口相互融合，不論是歷史迷，購物 迷，體育迷，抑或是美食饕客， 高品質夜生活及娛樂愛好者，每 一位遊客或居民都會獲得超凡體 驗。走出馬尼拉，之外的省份風 景如畫，是體驗鄉村之樂或逃 離煩囂的不錯選擇，可在此暢 享各類驚險刺激的活動。
Lightning-quick internet facilities, super-developed jet travel and word-ofmouth communications has influenced more and more foreigners into visiting the Philippines. Credit must also be given to aggressive and successful Department of
Tourism (DOT) efforts, with all factors having resulted in the number of tourist arrivals in the Philippines reaching 3.1 million in 2008, bringing in an estimated dollar income of US$4.5 billion. This year’s influx is likely to reach a scaleddown but still respectable estimate of 3.3 million, while 2010’s target is an achievable 3.5 million. Considering that the latter two figures have been revised downwards because of the ongoing global financial crisis (showing signs of reversal?), the preceding figures can be viewed as being even more remarkable.
快如閃電的上網設備，超級發達的飛機 航線和良好的口碑吸引越來越多的外國人 到菲律賓旅遊。旅遊部（DOT）當然也功 不可沒，他們敢作敢為，成績斐然。在所 有因素的共同作用下，2008年來菲旅遊人 數增至310萬人，預計創收45億美元。今年 的遊客入境人數可能減少，但仍會相當可 觀，預計可達330萬人，而2010年的目標 是達到350萬人。後兩項數據因持續 的全球金融危機已被調低（拐點 跡象已現？），因此上述數據顯 得更加可圈可點。
A major component of this is Medical tourism. By 2010, US residents alone seeking various medical services procedures outside the US, from heart procedures to plastic surgery and hip, knee and other bone replacements and even to fertility difficulties are projected to reach as many as 5 million. And most of these Americans head for Asia for such procedures. Other than the natural caring ways of Filipinos, the
Economy
11
In the first six months of 2009, an estimated 3.9 million local tourists made their impact on the industry
attraction of having a procedure done here is cost-related. Momentarily, a facelift costs $20,000 plus in the US versus less than $4,000 over here so even with related travel expenses, the cost is considerably less. The wide availability of high-tech facilities and board-certified doctors capable of delivering the same quality procedure as those done in the US is another factor, not to mention packaged holidays to local destinations suited to the patients’ respective recovery periods and conditions.
醫療旅遊是旅遊業的一大組成部份。單 就美國居民而言，截至2010年出國就醫的 人數預計可達500萬人之多，這些醫療服務 包括心臟手術，整形手術，臀部，膝蓋與 其他骨骼更換，乃至不孕不育。這些美國 人多會前往亞洲進行此類手術。除菲律賓 人崇尚自然的護理方式之外，吸引人們到 菲律賓做手術的一大原因就是費用。時下 在美國做一個整容手術要花費20,000美元以 上，而在菲律賓只要不到4,000美元，即使 加上相關路費開支，費用也要低出很多。 另一個原因則是，醫療機構廣泛配備高科 技設備，持證醫生的手術水平與美國並無 二致，而適合病患具體康復時間和狀況的 當地包價旅遊就自不待言了。
Execution and Implementation 落到實處 Concurrently, the Department of Tourism (DOT), led by its dynamo Secretary Ace Durano and in conjunction
with provincial governments and Congressmen, has been placing heavy emphasis in developing required infrastructure in what in the past had been considered far-flung or forgotten destinations. In Central Philippines, Iloilo opened its brand-spanking new airport in 2007, followed by Bacolod in 2008. Zamboanga in Mindanao and Puerto Princesa in Palawan are both lengthening their runways and refurbishing their terminals, Coron island where the famous and much traveled to El Nido Resort is, will be opening its own airport very shortly, as well San Fernando, La Union. The now-familiar Clark Diosdado Macapagal Airport with its twin, parallel 15,000-foot long runways and modern terminal, is a haven for nofrill airlines with the cheapest fares this side of the universe. Correspondingly, the traffic in the number of arriving and departing flights are steadily increasing. 同時，在精力充沛的部長杜拉瑙（Ace Durano）的帶領下，旅遊部（DOT）聯 Passengers waiting for a domestic flight to Boracay
合各省政府和國會議員大力推進必要基礎 設施的建設，開發先前被認為是偏遠或被 遺忘的地區。菲律賓中部的伊洛伊洛於 2007年啟用嶄新的機場，2008年巴克洛德緊 隨其後。棉蘭老島的三寶顏和巴拉望島的 公主港都在加修高速公路並翻新候機樓， 聞名遐邇，遊人如織的El Nido Resort所在 地科隆島以及拉烏尼翁的聖費爾南多也將 很快擁有自己的機場。如今我們所熟悉的 克拉克•狄奧斯達多•馬卡帕加爾機場， 擁有15,000英呎長的雙平行跑道和現代化的 候機樓，這裏是廉價航空公司的大本營， 可以享受到最便宜的票價，所以進出港航 班也越來越多。
Local Tourism 本地旅遊業 In the first six months of 2009, an estimated 3.9 million local tourists made their impact on the industry. Multiply the figure by two to account for all 12 months of the year, and one gets a little less than 8 million local tourists joining the 3.3 million foreign ones expected. And then take into consideration that even local tourists spend pesos derived from a certain percentage of remitted U.S. dollars (official OFW remittances into the Philippines this year are expected to exceed U.S. $17 billion, and this is not even taking into account the unofficial dollars brought into the country in cash and on the persons of arriving passengers). Then factor in the fact that Filipinos are not the greatest of savers for the proverbial “rainy days” (the estimate is that 91 cents of every US$ received in the Philippines is spent, not saved), and one can register justification for the proposition that a certain portion of incoming dollars is being spent by the supposed “local” tourist. 2009年前六個月，本地遊客預計已達 390萬人。用這一數據乘以2得出全年12個 月的本地遊客人數，其結果略低於800萬， 預計還有330萬外國遊客加入進來。考慮到 本地遊客所用的比索也有相當一部份來自 美元匯款（今年官方菲律賓外勞匯款預計
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
12
Economy
超過170億美元，這甚至還未計入以現金方 式流入或由旅客帶入國內，而未計入官方 數據的美元），天性豪爽的菲律賓人似並 不屑於「未雨綢繆」這句諺語（據預計， 匯入菲國的每一美元中有91美分被花出 去，而不是存下來），我們可以認為流入 菲律賓的一部份美元是被所謂的「本地」 遊客花費了。
Cebu-Pacific airlines which was first to slash its prices to ridiculously low levels, such that ordinary folk and the moderately growing middle class really began to fly
Airline and Accommodations Competition 航空業和賓館業的競爭 It also operative to bear in mind that many of these local tourists are able to take vacations firstly, because of the proliferation of competition between local airlines that is merely reaching its stride following the de-regulation of the industry by then Pres. Fidel Ramos in the mid-90s. And to give credit where it is due, it was Cebu-Pacific airlines which was first to slash its prices to ridiculously low levels, such that ordinary folk and the moderately growing middle class (in terms of sheer numbers, the growing middle class is really not so “moderate” considering the country’s annual population growth of two percent plus) really began to fly. The age of luxury flying in the Philippines is, in earnest, a thing of the past. People – foreigners and locals alike – flying within the country – want to fly and get to their respective
舉發展，競爭加劇。宿務太平洋航空公司 亦應記上一功，是他首先將票價降至近乎 荒謬的水平，從而使尋常百姓及緩慢壯大 的中產階級（就數量而言，鑒於菲國人口 年增長率僅為2%出頭，中產階級的壯大速 度並不算「緩慢」）亦能坐得起飛機。事 實上菲律賓的豪華航班時代已成過往。這 些在菲國打「空的」的國內外遊客希望儘 快達到目的地，但中途「不需要三明治， 我會自己帶瓶水。」畢竟乘坐新式噴氣式客 機，國內的最長航班也只需不到兩小時， 誰會在短短120分鐘內就饑餓難耐呢？同 時，酒店旅館業也蓬勃發展，激烈的競爭 將度假的食宿價格維持在合理水平。
Local tourists are able to take vacations firstly, because of the proliferation of competition between local airlines destinations quickly. Period. “I don’t need a sandwich, and I’ll bring my own bottle water.” After all, the longest flight within the Philippines in a modern jetliner takes less than two hours, and who is going to starve within a scant 120 minutes? Meanwhile, competition within the hotel and hospitality industry has likewise been burgeoning, keeping the price of accommodations and daily sustenance while vacationing at reasonable levels. 航空公司當然記得本地許多遊客首先也 要旅遊，由於九十年代中期時任總統的費 德爾·拉莫斯取消管治，本地航空公司大
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
As a matter of interest, the number one provincial tourist destination in the Philippines today is Camarines Sur, one of the six Bicol provinces, with 900,000 tourists in the first half of 2009. It boasts of two big draws; the Camarines Sur Watersports Complex (CWC); and, Caramoan, a hilly peninsula in the north-eastern part of the province with deep gorges and a rough, rocky terrain featuring caves, limestone formations, white sandy beaches, an islet lake, a subterranean river and a national park. The last is accessible by public transport
from the town of Caramoan, and local people have established trails in the park for visitors. And number two goes to Cebu, the de facto capital of Central Philippines in the Visayas, with 800,000 visitors for the first six months of this year. 有趣的是，菲律賓如今的頭號省級旅遊 目的地是比科爾六省之一南甘馬粦省， 2009年上半年遊客人數即達900,000。此地 有兩大吸引遊客的景點：南甘馬粦省滑水 運動中心（CWC）及該省東北部的多山半 島卡拉蒙，這裏有幽深峽谷，疊石岩洞， 鐘乳奇峰，銀灘島湖，地下清池與國家公 園。從克拉蒙鎮乘坐公共交通工具便能到 達國家公園，當地人已在園內修建了遊園 小徑。榜眼當屬米沙鄢的宿務，他是菲律 賓中部的實際中心，今年前六個月已接待 800,000名遊客。
The conclusion is luminous: tourism in the Philippines is here to stay… in fact, to be developed exponentially. Its irresistible compatibility with the country is plain to see, and so are the dollars that increasing numbers of tourist will be bringing in with them. In the next issue, the Overseas Foreign Workers (OFWs) factor, the biggest dollar earner of the three will be the topic of interest
結論顯而易見：菲律賓的旅遊業實際上是 在成指數增長。菲國兼容並包的精神和與日 俱增的遊客帶來的外匯收益均有目共睹。下 一系列將要重點討論的是「三駕馬車」之中 最大的創匯來源—海外勞工（外勞）。|AT|
14
Economy
Australia’s
Economic
Master Class 澳洲，經濟專業碩士生 By Chris Champion
Australia, the land of sun,
beaches, beer, sport and economic master classes. The global financial crisis caused little other than some early anxiety in Australia. While the rest of the world plunged into recession, Australia avoided two consecutive quarters of negative growth. 澳洲，是陽光、海灘、啤酒、運動與經濟 課程碩士班的國度。席捲全球的金融危機 在澳洲雷聲大、雨點小。當世界各地陷入 衰退困境，澳洲卻風景這邊獨好，就連接 連兩季負增長的滋味也從未舔嘗。
Australian political leaders initially warned the country to expect the worst recession in history. They got that wrong. They warned Australians to batten the hatches and prepare for economic mayhem. That didn’t happen. Well, we might escape recession and disaster and mayhem, they said, but we can’t escape a big rise in unemployment and all the terrible consequences of that. The latest unemployment figures suggest Australia might escape there too. 澳洲的政治領袖早已警告國民，歷史上 最糟糕的衰退時期即將來臨。誰知沒有。 他們警告國民嚴防危機並準備應對亂成一 鍋粥的經濟局面。這也沒發生。他們說， 好吧，就算我們沒有遭遇危機、災難以及 大混亂，也肯定難逃失業率激升及其連串
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
惡劣後果的定數。而最新的失業數據顯 示，澳洲還真可能逃過了這一劫。
It has taken until mid-August for the first positive news to emerge elsewhere — Japan, Hong Kong and France have emerged from recession — but Australia has been hearing good news all along, mainly in the form of catastrophes that didn’t happen.
其他地方直到8月中才微露曙光—日本、 香港和法國總算可在衰退中歇口氣，但澳洲 的好消息卻接連不斷，最重要的是，那些原 以為不可避免的災難並未發生。
So how did this mid-sized economy, well-regulated perhaps but no better so than other developed countries, keep its head while all others were losing theirs?
那麼，這個監管較好、但也不優於其他 發達國家的中型經濟體，到底為何在到處 風雨飄搖之時仍能昂首前行？
For the answer, we’d like you to imagine a classroom of children. Some are naturally smart, most are naturally competitive, and all seek the favour of the One Boy who is bigger than any of them in every way. He is taller, stronger and faster. He behaves like the headmaster’s son. He doesn’t just enforce the playground rules, he creates them. He gets to choose his friends, and discard them as he sees fit. Everyone wants to be his friend.
為探尋這個答案，請你先想像出一間兒 童課堂。有些孩子天生機靈，多數則天生 好競爭，而他們全體努力取悅一個體魄最 大的男孩。他又高又壯，行動迅速。舉手 投足有校長公子的派頭。遊戲規則由他制 訂執行，友伴任憑他呼來喝去。人人都想 做他的朋友。
He has one weakness. Apples. He loves apples and has a limitless appetite for them. High-quality apples aren’t always easy to find, but all the children are constantly looking out for one so they can offer them to the Big One in return for friendship and favours. 但他有一個弱點。蘋果。他喜歡蘋果且 對蘋果胃口無限。最優質的蘋果並非隨處 可得，而他所有的友伴都不停尋找好的蘋 果，以作為對他友誼和恩惠的回贈。
But they know they are all fighting for scraps and second-best status. The best friend of the One Boy is the Little Guy. This guy is not particularly big or rich or even the smartest kid in school. It’s just that his dad owns an orchard. The Little Guy has a lock on all the best apples in the neighbourhood, and the Big One, who has everything else, has to be best friends with the Little Guy because he needs those apples. 但他們心知自己只不過在爭些殘羹剩飯 和次要地位。這大個子最好的朋友是一個 小傢伙。這傢伙身材不壯，甚至在學校中
Economy
也算不上頭等聰明。但他父親擁有一個果 場。這個小傢伙把社區中所有最好的蘋果 鎖起來，這樣一來，即便那個大個子、以 及所有其他人，都不得不成為這個小傢伙 的最好朋友，因為他們需要蘋果。
China is the Big One, Australia the Little Guy, and the apples are natural resources, especially from the vast iron ore orchards in the Pilbara region in Australia’s north-west.
中國好比那個大個子，而澳洲就好比小 傢伙。蘋果象徵天然資源，尤其是來自澳 洲西北部Pilbara地區幅員廣闊的鐵礦石場。
Sir Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics, visited Australia in mid-August and was asked by an Australian Broadcasting Commission journalist to what he ascribed Australia’s success in fighting off recession. Sir Howard hesitated a moment before finding a diplomatic way of giving what was essentially a one-word response: “China.” 倫敦政治經濟學院院長Howard Davies爵 士8月中訪問澳洲時曾接受一家澳洲廣播 代表團記者的訪問，被問到怎樣描述澳洲 擊退危機的成功時，Howard爵士略微遲疑 後，便以外交風格提供了言簡意賅到只有 一個詞的答案： 「中國。」
He was much more flattering in describing Australia’s economy,
contradicting the journalist’s description of “mid-size” by calling it a “leading world economy”. According to the 2008 International Monetary Fund rankings of global economies by GDP, Australia was 14th, barely one-fifth the size of secondranked Japan. It is part of the G20, but it is a long way from being invited into the G8 or the inner sanctum of the UN Security Council. Why, then would the head of the London School of Economics label the Australian economy as a leading one? The answer is the same. China.
談及澳洲經濟，他絕不乏溢美之辭，相 對於記者稱澳洲為「中型」，他用上「世界 領先的經濟體」，體現出極大的反差。根據 2009年國際貨幣基金組織對全球經濟體按 GDP所作排名，澳洲佔第14位，其經濟總 量勉強佔到第二位日本的1/5。它雖是G20的 一員，但距離獲邀加入G8或聯合國安理會 常任理事國尚路途遙遠。既然如此，倫敦 經濟政治學院的領頭人又為何將澳洲經濟 視為世界領先之一呢？ 答案仍然是—中國。
Australia has a giant presence in the global resources market. In fact, it has two of them: BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. And when the representatives of these global mining titans sit down across the table from Chinese negotiators to discuss
15
forward iron ore and other raw materials contracts, it is a true meeting of equals. Two Goliaths and no David in sight. 澳洲在世界資源市場上舉足輕重。事實 上，它擁有兩個能源巨頭必和必拓（BHP BILLITON）和力拓（Rio Tinto）。當這些 世界級採礦巨頭的代表與中國談判者開始 談判遠期鐵礦石或其他原材料合約，雙方 委實勢均力敵。猶如歌利亞對壘歌利亞， 卻不是對壘戴維。
If you had been listening to Australian politicians over the past several months, however, you could be forgiven for failing to recognise any of the above. According to the elected government, Australia has sailed buoyantly through troubled economic waters because of the firm leadership which the government has provided and the strong financial system which the government has overseen. 若你有關注澳洲政治領袖過去幾個月來 的言論，而注意不到上面提及的蛛絲馬 跡，其實情有可原。民選政府說，澳洲已 經從金融海嘯的巨浪中穩定前行，原因是 政府提供的堅強領導力和政府監管下穩健 的金融體系。
According to the main opposition party, the government’s wasteful spending of billions of dollars in economic stimulus programs has left the country with a mountain of debt which is going to keep everyone poor and miserable for eons. The opposition parties don’t say what they might have done differently. 但主要的反對黨人士說，政府在所謂的 經濟刺激計劃上大撒數十億金錢，以致負 債累累，使得人民窮困，苦日綿綿。反對 黨並未指出除此之外，澳洲政府尚有何可 行之策。
It goes on every evening on the main television news programs and talkback forums, the cut and thrust of political point-scoring. We delivered an economic miracle, says the government. You spent money like a mad man with no arms says the opposition. 各大電視新聞節目和對話論壇每晚少 不了提及的，是為贏得政治分數而進行 的唇槍舌劍。政府說，是我們創造了經 濟奇跡。反對黨說，政府打撒金錢，浪 費無度。
We have one word for all of them. China.
而無論怎樣，對他們來說，關鍵因素還 在於：中國。|AT| SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
16
Economy
The Goldman Sachs Syndrome
高盛現象
BRICWALL Breaking through the 打破「金磚四國」壁壘
作者/ by Jack Dixon
Like breaking through a brick
wall, South Korea jumped the gun on its Asian trade rivals – most notably Japan – when it recently sealed a comprehensive trade pact with India, one of the four countries comprising the much-touted BRIC Group (the world’s fastest developing economies). Commencing early next year upon The South Korean parliament’s ratification, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will cover tariff reductions, goods and services, investments and competition issues, providing Seoul an advantage in tapping the sub-continent’s market of 1.1 billion people. 如同打破磚牆，韓國最近與名聲響亮的 金磚四國（世界發展速度最快的發展中 經濟體）之一的印度達成一份全面貿易 協定，搶在了亞洲貿易競爭對手，特別 是日本的前頭。經韓國國會批准後，《全 面經濟夥伴協定》（CEPA）將於明年初 生效，涵蓋減稅，貨物及服務，投資和 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
競爭等事務，為首爾提供了搶佔11億人 口次大陸市場的先機。
After three years of intense negotiations, Indian Commerce Minister Anand Sharma and his Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-Hoon inked the trade deal that will further boost the two-way trade between these economic powerhouses of Asia, which currently stands at a mammoth US$16 billion annually. Under the CEPA, they will have reciprocal reductions in tariffs – 85 percent of Korean exports and 90 percent of India’s overseas sales, within the next decade. In the service sector, India agreed to open its telecom, accounting, medical and advertising markets to South Korean companies, and South Korean banks will also be allowed to open branches in India. 經過三年的激烈談判，印度商務部長 Anand Sharma和韓國貿易部長金勇宏簽署 此項貿易協定，旨在進一步推動兩大亞洲 經濟強國的雙向貿易。印韓年貿易現已達 到160億美元的巨額水平。根據CEPA，兩 國將在未來10年內實現減免關稅互惠，相
當於韓國出口額的85%和印度境外銷售額 的90%。在服務領域，印度承諾向韓國公 司開放其電信，審計，醫藥和廣告市場， 韓國銀行也將獲准在印度開設分行。
This latest one-upmanship from South Korea comes as no surprise to many business analysts, who already view the aggressive, emerging economic power as a developed country growing at a speed comparable to that of Brazil and Mexico. Moreover, economists are predicting it will overtake Canada by 2025 and Italy by 2035. By 2050, South Korea is expected to equal USA’s GDP per capita of over $90,000, become the second highest among all other economies, and will attain a credit rating of AAA even sooner. And cutting a deal with a member of the BRIC Group certainly points it right smack into that direction. 對眾多商業分析師而言，韓國近來搶佔 先機的舉動並不出人意表，他們早已將這 個力爭上游的新興經濟強國視為一個發 展速度可與巴西和墨西哥媲美的國家。 此外，經濟學家預測，韓國將在2025年趕
Economy
INDIA: Cheap & quality labor
超加拿大，並在2035年趕超意大利。到 2050年，韓國有望和美國比肩，實現人均 90,000美元的GDP，成為世界排名第二的 經濟強國，並可能更早獲得AAA的信用評 級。而與金磚國家之一達成協定的確是朝 著上述方向努力的明確之舉。
BRIC Unraveled 金磚列強
India has one of the fastest growing cities
公司，政府和富裕家族提供金融諮詢和資 金管理服務的角色。高盛同時也是美國財 政部證券市場的一級自營商，為其客戶提 供收購與兼併建議，承銷服務以及資產管 理，並參與自營交易和私募交易。
Goldman Sachs has since prominently used the BRIC acronym in its economic forecasts, saying that the four countries are developing so rapidly that their combined economies could eclipse that of the current richest countries of the world all together by 2050, with the four countries already accounting for more than a quarter of the world’s land area and more than 40 percent of the world’s population and holding a combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 15.435 trillion dollars – on all counts among the biggest and fastest-
But what is the BRIC Group? BRIC is an acronym used in economics to refer to Brazil, Russia, India and China coined in 2001 by the Goldman Sachs Group (GS), a 130-year-old bank holding company based in New York City’s Lower Manhattan area that deals in investment banking, securities services and investment management with its global centers acting as financial advisors and money managers for corporations, governments and wealthy families around the world. A primary dealer in the US Treasury securities market, Goldman Sachs offers its clients mergers and acquisitions advice, underwriting services and asset management, Shanghai World as well as engaging in Finance Center proprietary trading and private equity deals. 然而金磚組織又是什麼？「金磚四國」 是經濟學裏指巴西，俄羅斯，印度和中國 的首字母縮拼詞，由130年歷史的老牌金 融控股公司高盛集團首次使用。該集團位 於紐約下曼哈頓區，從事投行業務，證券 服務和投資管理，其全球中心扮演為全球
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growing emerging markets and would be the largest entity on the global stage. However, Goldman Sachs at the time stopped short of contending that the BRIC Group would organize into an economic bloc or a formal trading association like the European Union, only suggesting strong indications of a “political club or alliance” that will turn “their growing economic power into greater geopolitical clout” mainly to influence the US position on major trade accords or derive political concessions from the US, such as the proposed nuclear cooperation with India. Its prognostication did not come undone. 此後，高盛開始在經濟預報中使用引人 矚目的「金磚四國」縮寫，稱這四個國家 的經濟發展極為迅速，到2050年，其經濟
CHINA: producer of manufactured goods
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
Soy Farms in Brazil
巴西總統盧拉，俄羅斯總統普京，中國 國家主席胡錦濤以及印度總理辛格均出席 峰會，峰會聚焦「改善當前世界經濟環 境，討論四國在未來如何更好合作，以及 改革金融機構的總體努力」，並進行有關發 展中國家如何更好參與全球事務的討論。 峰會的聯合公報建議建立一個「多樣化， 穩定的和可預測的」新型的全球儲備貨 幣，暗示改變美元的「統治地位」，其中俄 羅斯對美元的「統治地位」頗有微詞。隨 著第二屆峰會明年有望在巴西舉辦，四國 集團峰會有可能形成固定機制。
總和可令當今世界所有最富裕的國家黯然 失色。四國現佔有全世界四分之一土地面 積和40%的人口，GDP總和達154,350萬億 美元，從任何角度看，都是最大和發展最 快的新興市場，並將成為國際舞台上最大 的實體。然而，當時高盛並沒有聲稱 四 國集團將組成一個經濟集團，或類似於歐 盟的正式貿易集團，而是強烈暗示這個 「政治俱樂部或聯盟」將會把不斷增長的 經濟實力轉變成為更大的政治影響，主要 是在重要貿易協定上影響美方立場，或從 擬議的美印核合作等方面獲得美方的政治 妥協。這一預言果然成真。
Pre-GS Forecasts 先高盛預測
Predating the original Goldman Sachs BRIC thesis, some sources had claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin of Russia spearheaded the initiative for a cooperative coalition among the developing BRIC countries, but offered no evidence to the public of any formal agreement to which all four states are signatories. There are, however, an abundance of proofs on the countries reaching a multitude of bilateral or trilateral agreements such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (member states include Russia and China, associate members include India) and the IBSA Trilateral Forum, which unites Brazil, India, and South Africa in annual dialogues.
Last May, the ball started to roll. Foreign ministers of the BRIC countries met in Yekaterinburg, Russia, to iron out plans for a historic summit meeting. A week before the scheduled summit, Brazil offered US$10 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the first time it had ever made such a loan, boldly showing that its economic position had changed dramatically since receiving IMF loans itself in the past. Then China and Russia followed suit, announcing plans to invest with the IMF $50 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Finally, last June 16, the BRIC Group held its first summit in Yekaterinburg, jointly calling for the establishment of a “multi-polar world order.” Attended by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, President Hu Jintao of China and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India, the summit focused on “improving the current global economic situation and discussing how the four countries can better work together in the future, as well as a more general push to reform financial institutions,” plus discussions on how developing nations could be better involved in global
BRAZIL: Supplier of raw materials such as iron ore and soy
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
affairs. The summit’s joint communiqué recommended the establishment of a new, global reserve currency that is “diversified, stable and predictable,” hinting at a re-direction from the “dominance” of the US dollar, of which Russians have been critical. And it seems that BRIC meetings will become regular affairs as a second summit is expected to be held in Brazil next year. 去年5月，有關行動開始展開。金磚四 國外長們在俄羅斯葉卡捷琳堡會面，以策 劃一場歷史性的峰會。在峰會前一週，巴 西向國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）提供100億 美元，作為它首次提供的貸款，大膽顯示 它已不再是昔日需要IMF貸款援助的那個 巴西。之後中俄分別仿效，宣佈向IMF分 別投資500億和100億美元的計劃。2008年 6月16日，金磚四國集團在葉卡捷琳堡舉辦 第一屆峰會，聯合呼籲建立「多極世界秩 序」。在高盛發表原金磚四國論文之前， 有消息稱俄羅斯總統普京帶頭提議在發展 中的金磚國家之間形成合作聯盟，但並沒 有對外提供四國都簽署正式協定的證據。 然而已有充足證據說明一些國家正尋求大 量雙邊或三邊協定，如上海合作組織（成 員國包括俄羅斯和中國，准會員國包括印 度）以及團結巴西，印度和南非的年度對 話—IBSA三方論壇。
You Scratch My Back… 互惠互利，禮尚往來
With the BRIC countries, it’s simply a matter of “You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours,” an economic cooperation based on complementary individual strengths that further boost each nation’s prominence in the world stage. The GS-BRIC thesis entitled “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050,” while
Economy
Natural Gas Plant, Sakharin, Russia
RUSSIA: Source of oil and natural gas
recognizing that the four “have changed their political systems to embrace global capitalism,” predicted “China and India, respectively, to be the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services, while Brazil and Russia would become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials… a logical next step among the BRICs because Brazil and Russia together form the logical commodity suppliers to India and China.” There is a clear potential for the BRIC to form a powerful economic bloc exclusive of the current membership in such collaborations as the “Group of Eight.” Brazil is outstanding as a supplier of soy and iron ore, while Russia has vast oil and natural gas supplies; India and China, meanwhile, have already started creating prime niches in the services and manufacturing sectors, respectively, in the global arena.
對於金磚國家，用一個建立在個體實力 互補基礎上的經濟合作組織進一步提高各 國在世界舞台上的聲望，僅僅是一種「互 惠互利，禮尚往來」的表現。高盛題為《 與金磚四國一起夢想：通往2050年之路》 （Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050） 的金磚四國論文在認識到四國「改變政治 體制以擁抱全球資本主義」的同時，預測 「中國和印度將分別成為製成品和服務的 全球主要供應國，而巴西與俄羅斯將成為 同樣重要的原材料供應國…是金磚四國符 合邏輯的下一步，因為巴西和俄羅斯將聯 合形成印度和中國邏輯上的商品供應國。」 金磚四國具備形成將「八國集團」當前成 員國排除在外的強大經濟體的明顯潛力。 巴西在供應大豆和鐵礦方面地位顯赫；俄 羅斯擁有豐富的石油和天然氣資源；同時 印度和中國已分別開始在全球舞台上創建 服務和生產領域的主要地位。
The GS thesis documented “how commodities, work, technology, and companies have diffused outward from
Post Script 附言 Watch out for these Goldman Sachs predictions four years after its 2005 report on the emerging BRIC economies: 請注意高盛在2005年關於新興金磚經濟體報告後的四年內的有關預測：
}
The “Next Eleven (N11)” list of countries – using as criteria macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies and quality of education – Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam 「11國集團」名單—以宏觀經濟穩定性， 政治成熟性，貿易及投資政策開放性和教 育質量為標準 —孟加拉國，埃及，印度尼
西亞，伊朗，韓國，墨西國，尼日利亞， 巴基斯坦，菲律賓，土耳其及越南。
}
Possessing a significantly higher Growth Environment Score (the GS parameter for long-term sustainability of growth) than all of the BRIC or N-11 countries, a re-unified Korea before 2050, which would raise the country’s population to over 75 million, larger than the UK and France from the
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the United States across the world.” It noted that, even before the end of the Cold War, the BRIC governments all instituted economic or political reforms to enable themselves viable entries into the world economic scene by simultaneously focusing on education, foreign investment and domestic consumption in order to compete. According to the study, India has the potential to grow the fastest over the next 30 to 50 years because the decline in working age population will happen later for India and Brazil than for Russia and China. In a follow-up report, GS said, “India has 10 of the 30 fastestgrowing urban areas in the world and, based on current trends, we estimate a massive 700 million people will move to cities by 2050. This will have significant implications for demand for urban infrastructure, real estate and services.” Thus, South Korea’s trade pact assumes the magnitude of a major coup in economic terms.
高盛的文章記錄了「商品，工作，技術 和公司如何從美國向世界各國擴散」。它 注意到，即使在冷戰末期，金磚四國政府 都著手經濟或政治改革，通過同時重視教 育，外商投資和國內消費，參與世界經濟 舞台上的競爭。根據該項研究，印度在未 來30至50年裏具有最快的發展潛力，原因 是印度和巴西的勞動年齡人口減少現象將 會遲於俄羅斯和中國而產生。在後續報告 中，高盛指出，「在世界發展最快的30個 城市地區中，印度占到10個。按照當前趨 勢，我們預計，到2050年將會有7億人口 遷入城市。這將對城市基礎建設，房地產 和服務需求產生深遠影響。」韓國貿易協 定的確充分意識到這次經濟大事件的重 要性。 |AT|
G7. Cheap, skilled labor from the North combined with advanced technology and infrastructure in the South, as well as Korea’s strategic location connecting three economic powers to create an economy larger than the bulk of the G7. 2050之前統一的朝鮮半島將擁有比金磚四 國或11四集團國家顯著較高的增長環境分 數（高盛長期增長穩定參數）。合併後的國 家人口將超過7500萬，高於七國集團中的 英國與法國。朝鮮的技術工人與韓國先進 的技術和基礎設施相結合，再加上朝鮮半 島連接三大經濟強國的戰略地位，將催生 一個超過七國集團經濟總體的經濟體。
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Economy
Indonesia as a 馬來西亞
Model Emerging Market 作者/by Bernardo M. Villegas, Ph.D.
When US President Barack Obama
visits Indonesia, he will find a country that is increasingly becoming a model for democratic reforms and sustainable human development in Southeast Asia. Indonesia’s economy will register the highest growth in Asia, with the exception of China and India. In fact, in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), it will be the fastest growing at 5 percent in 2009 and 6 percent or even more in 2010 and beyond. 當美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬到訪印尼時， 他會發現該國在東南亞的民主改革和可持 續人類發展中起著日益重要的模範作用。 在亞洲，印尼的經濟增長僅次於中國和印 度。印尼將於2009年以5%，於2010年及以 後以6%甚至更高的經濟增長率，位居東南 亞國家聯盟（簡稱東盟）眾國之首。
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, elected for a second five-year term in early July 2009, recently announced that the budget shortfall will be a very manageable 1.6 percent of GDP in 2010 from 2.5 percent this year. President SBY spent his first term putting Indonesia’s macroeconomic house in order with the help of a very able team of technocrats. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
The improvement in the fiscal sector has been accompanied by an equally outstanding performance in infrastructure spending, which has become a prime mover for the economy as a whole. 2009年7月初，總統蘇西洛（Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono）在選舉中獲勝連 任，開始為期五年的第二屆任期。他最 近宣佈，他極有把握將財政赤字從09年 GDP（國內生產總值）的2.5%，減少到 2010年GDP的1.6%。在其第一屆任期內， 憑藉一個本領高強的技術治國論者團隊， 蘇西洛致力整頓印尼的宏觀經濟，改善了 國家財政狀況，並在基礎設施建設上交出 了同樣驕人的成績，成為國家整體經濟的 主要推動力。
The large domestic market of close to 250 million consumers has partly insulated the Indonesian economy from the global meltdown. Although exports have plummeted at double digit rates, consumer spending, which accounts for some two-thirds of the US$433 billion economy, has become the engine of
growth. The July 2009 inflation of 2.71% was a historical low, boosting consumer confidence whose indicator according to Nielsen Company Indonesia is the highest among 28 countries surveyed by the company, as well as being higher than China’s – the world’s fastest growing economy – at 94.4 points in the second quarter of 2009. 印尼擁有近2.5億消費者的龐大國內市 場，在某種程度上使得印尼經濟免受全球 經濟衰退的影響。儘管出口以超過10%的 速率下跌，但在4,330億美元的國家經濟總 量中，佔比三分之二的國內消費成為經濟 增長的推動引擎。2009年7月，印尼通脹 率達到2.71%的歷史最低水平，增強了消
Indonesia’s economy will register the highest growth in Asia, with the exception of China and India.
費者的信心，尼爾森印尼公司指出，09年 第二季度，在該公司調查的28個國家中， 印尼的消費者信心指數為最高的94.4分， 比世界上經濟增長最快的國家 — 中國還 要更高一籌。
Economy
21 PHOTOGRAPH © Doole
It is no surprise then that barely two weeks after the deadly bombings of July 17, 2009, security conditions in Jakarta have returned to normal. The number of visitors that were bombed have reopened signifying the “back to normal status,” Jakarta Governor Fauzi-Bowo closed the Jakarta Media Crisis Center, the temporary information center used to provide information about the bomb attacks. I can personally attest to the “business as usual” atmosphere in Jakarta and in the entire country. I missed the two bombings by a day.
在2009年7月17日的自殺式炸彈襲擊後不 到兩個星期，雅加達的治安不出所料地恢 復正常。事件後這裏的遊客人數顯示一切 「恢復正常」，而雅加達省長Fauzi-Bowo關 閉了為提供炸彈襲擊消息而設立的雅加達 媒體危機處理中心。我於兩起炸彈襲擊之 後的一天到達雅加達。我本人可以證明， 雅加達和印尼全國「照常營業」。
As I started my business trip to Indonesia last July 18, 2009, just a day after the deadly bombings of the Ritz Carlton and Marriott Hotels in Jakarta, I felt a kind of dejavu. Some eight years ago when the World Trade Center was demolished by terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, I saw live on TV the second plane crashing on one of the twin towers. I felt shivers in my spine remembering the two occasions I had given economic briefings in the Windows on the World Restaurant on top of the WTC. Seeing pictures of the results of the blasts in the two Jakarta hotels, I felt history repeating itself. Over the last year or so, I had given economic briefings and joined CEO breakfast forums several times in both the Ritz Carlton and Marriott in Jakarta. I actually had breakfast several times in the Air Langga Restaurant in which several people died during the bombing of July 17, 2009.
A huge domestic market of close to 250 million consumers can enable a reasonably well-run country like Indonesia to attain a GDP growth of 6 or more percent annually.
大約八年前，2001年9月11日，世貿中 心遭到恐怖襲擊而倒塌，我從電視現場 直播看到第二架飛機撞擊其中一座雙子 塔。想到我曾經兩度在世貿中心頂樓的 世界之窗餐廳做經濟簡報，我感到不寒 而慄。看到雅加達兩家酒店爆炸後的圖 片，我感到歷史在重演。在過去一年左 右的時間裏，我在雅加達的麗嘉酒店和 萬豪酒店做過經濟簡報，還參加過幾次 CEO早餐會。我在Air Langga餐廳吃過 幾次早餐，在2009年7月17日的爆炸事件 中，有數人在該餐廳喪生。
Indonesia, I read an eyewitness account of the bombings in The Straits Times of July 18, 2009. A certain Erik Stern, who was having breakfast at the Air Langga restaurant in Ritz Carlton at the time the second bomb exploded described his harrowing experience. I immediately identified with his very positive attitude towards Indonesia. At the conclusion of his account, he famously remarked: “My second day here – may have been overwhelming but I will definitely come back for my 41st visit to the city, and especially to Ritz-Carlton. I love the staff here. I urge everyone not to discriminate against Jakarta because those who will lose are those who really lost today, the people of Jakarta.”
No terrorist bombings can derail the strong economic growth in the most populous Muslim country in the world.
2009年7月18日，在雅加達麗嘉酒店和萬 豪酒店發生炸彈襲擊之後的一天，我來到 印尼公幹，竟然有一種似曾相識的感覺。
PHOTOGRAPH © Dave Lumenta
I never thought even for a moment of canceling the business trip to Jakarta. I was convinced that Indonesia would quickly recover from the bad publicity occasioned by these dastardly acts of some terrorists. Providentially, in the Singapore Air Lines flight I took to
但我一刻也沒有考慮過取消雅加達之 行。我堅信，印尼能很快地從恐怖分子的 卑鄙行徑所造成的負面消息中恢復過來。 像是天意安排，在新加坡航空公司的開往 雅加達的航班上，我讀到了2009年7月18日 的《海峽時報》裏對於爆炸事件的一篇目 擊文章。一個叫Erik Stern的人在第二個炸 彈爆炸時，正在麗嘉酒店的Air Langga餐 廳吃早餐，他在文中描述了自己的慘痛經 歷。我立即與他對印尼積極的態度產生了 共鳴。在文章的結尾，他寫得相當精彩： 「這是我來到這裏的第二天。這一天可能 發生了很多事情，但是我肯定會再回來， 第41次來到雅加達，特別是麗嘉酒店。我 很喜歡這裏的員工。我懇請大家不要排斥 雅加達，因為損失的人是今天那些痛失親 人的人們，也就是雅加達的人民。」
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy PHOTOGRAPH © Nestle CSV
Echoing the words of Mr. Stern I will go back to Jakarta many more times in the future, even daring to stay at the Ritz Carlton, because Indonesia under the leadership of President Yudhoyono (called SBY by Indonesians) has put together some outstanding economic and political reforms that will make sustainable economic development possible in the coming twenty years. No terrorist bombings can derail the strong economic growth in the most populous Muslim country in the world. As I went around in heavy traffic in both Jakarta and Surabaya, visiting some of the shopping complexes in both cities, I reconfirmed what I had seen in previous visits: that the huge domestic market of close to 250 million consumers can enable a reasonably well-run country like Indonesia to attain a GDP growth of 6 or more percent annually. Already, Indonesia has demonstrated during this ongoing global economic crisis that it should be grouped together with such emerging markets such as China, India, and Vietnam that have managed to grow at anywhere from 4 to 8 percent while the tiger economies of the past in the region, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, are experiencing precipitous declines in their GDPs.
Stern的話在我腦際迴響，將來我也會多 次重返雅加達，甚至敢於下榻麗嘉酒店， 因為在蘇西洛（印尼人稱他為SBY）的領 導下，印尼進行了卓越的經濟和政治改 革，能夠在未來20年裏保持經濟的可持續 發展。任何恐怖炸彈襲擊也不能破壞這個 世界上穆斯林人口最多的國家強勁的經濟 增長勢頭。行走在雅加達和泗水車水馬龍 的街道上，經過這兩座城市的一些購物中 心後，令我對自己前幾次到訪的所見所聞 更加肯定：擁有2.5億消費者的龐大國內市 場能促使像印尼這樣管理有序的國家獲得 每年6%，甚或更高的GDP增長。在當前的 全球經濟危機當中，印尼已經顯示其應當 被歸入中國，印度和越南等新興市場之一 員，它們在困境中仍創造出4%到8%的經濟 增長，而該地區過去的經濟四小龍如新加 坡，台灣和香港的GDP均已大幅度下降。
Just a day before the bombings, Bloomberg came out with a column of William Pesek reporting on the new acronym that may take the place of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which was coined by Jim
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
It has a large and young population, an increasingly educated labor force, vast natural resources, and an enlightened leadership... O’Neill of Goldman Sachs eight years ago. Nicholas Cashmore, Jakarta-based CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets economist, has contributed a new phrase to describe the emerging markets that are taking the lead as the world emerges from the worst global recession since the Second World War. Brazil and Russia have not avoided large declines in their GDPs this year. Indonesia’s growth of at least 5 percent this year may warrant its being grouped with China and India into what Cashmore calls “Chindonesia.” As Pesek remarked, there is a compelling logic to expand the “Chindia” concept to the Southeast Asian giant, Indonesia. The three countries together generated economic activity equal to 44 percent of the US economy. As Cashmore computed, “Chindonesia” will have a total GDP that will surpass $10 trillion by 2020, even assuming modest growth rates of just 5 to 6 percent. 爆炸事件的前一天，彭博財經刊出一個 由William Pesek執筆的專欄。他寫道，八 年前，高盛的Jim O’Neill創造了「金磚 四國」BRIC這個新詞，它由是巴西，俄 羅斯，印度和中國的英文首字母組合而 成。如今一個新的首字母縮略詞有可能取 而代之。總部在雅加達的里昂證券亞太
市場經濟學家Nicholas Cashmore創造了一 個新詞，用於形容那些自二戰後從最嚴重 的全球經濟衰退中先行復甦的新興市場。 今年，巴西和俄羅斯也逃脫不了GDP大 幅減少的厄運。而今年印尼至少5%的 增長率確保它與中國和印度並肩，形成 Cashmore所謂的「中國 – 印度 – 印尼鐵 三角（Chindonesia）」。正如Pesek所說，將 「中印大同（Chindia）」這個概念延伸到 印尼這個東南亞巨人其實極有道理。這三 個國家的經濟活動總量相當於美國經濟的 44%。正如Cashmore所計算的，即使僅按 5%到6%的保守增長率計算，「中國 – 印度 – 印尼鐵三角」的GDP總和都將於2020年 超過10萬億美元。
Indonesia is a perfect example of the emerging markets that will dominate the global economy in the coming twenty years. It has a large and young population, an increasingly educated labor force, vast natural resources, and an enlightened leadership under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose creditable performance in his first term won for him a resounding victory of about 60 percent in the recent elections. Newsweek in its July 20, 2009 issue had very positive words for President SBY: “When he first took office five years ago, violent separatists threatened Indonesia’s
Economy
integrity, homegrown terrorists sowed chaos, piracy thrived in the Strait of Malacca, and the economy was still reeling from the devastating 1998 Asian crisis. Today, Indonesia is the most vibrant and stable democracy in the region and one of the few economies predicted to grow by more than 4 percent in 2009.”
印尼是即將於未來20年支配新興市場 的一個完美例子。印尼擁有龐大的年青 人口，勞動力受教育程度越來越高，自 然資源豐富，蘇西洛總統的領導班子也 非常開明。蘇西洛在其第一屆任期內成 績傑出，令他在近期的選舉中以60%的選 票大獲全勝。2009年7月20日的《新聞週 刊》對蘇西洛總統作出了很高的評價： 「五年前他接任時，分裂分子威脅破壞印 尼的完整，國內的恐怖分子製造事端， 馬六甲海峽的海盜猖獗，而國家經濟還 未從1998年破壞力強大的亞洲經濟危機 中完全恢復。而今天，印尼是東南亞最 生機勃勃，最穩定的民主國家，也是為 數不多的，預計在2009年經濟增長仍能 超過4%的國家之一。」
As a citizen of a country still struggling to fight corruption at the highest levels of Government, I am impressed with the accomplishments of SBY in cleaning up what used to be one of the most corrupt governments in the world
as regularly tracked by Transparency International. The President, especially with the help of his Minister of Finance, was able to successfully prosecute some very high officials, including the father of his son-in-law. In the many private briefings and CEO forums in which I have participated, I have heard nothing but praises for the improving governance under President SBY. Indonesian entrepreneurs and corporate executives are the ones most bullish about the future of the economy, especially in such sectors as real estate, mining, infrastructure, consumer products, telecommunications, energy, finance, education and information technology. 印尼曾是世界上政府最腐敗的國家之 一，定期接受「透明國際」的追蹤調查， 至今仍在打擊最高層政府的腐敗現象。作 為一個印尼公民，我對蘇西洛總統在打擊 腐敗方面所取得的驕人成績印象深刻。蘇 西洛總統在財政部長等人的幫助下，成功 檢控了一些政府高層人士，包括他女婿 的父親。在我參加的多個私人簡報會和 CEO論壇上，我聽到的都是對蘇西洛總統 領導下，印尼管治大有進步的讚揚。印尼 的企業家和公司主管對未來的經濟最為看 好，尤其在房地產，採礦，基礎設施，消 費產品，電信，能源，金融，教育和信息 技術方面。
Indonesia is very well positioned in two possible growth triangles that can evolve among the emerging markets of Asia. First, there is Chindonesia. These three countries will add more than 170 million people to their work forces over the next decade in contrast with the declining populations of the European Union, Japan and Russia. The other growth triangle to which Indonesia can belong is what Jesus Zulueta of Asia Select, an executive search firm operating in Southeast Asia, calls the V.I.P. of the ASEAN--Vietnam, Indonesia and the
23
Philippines. These three countries have more than 400 million consumers among themselves and are very rich in natural resources. They can be the food basket for resource-poor countries like China and its Northeast Asian neighbors of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. All three VIP countries are also growing from levels of per capita incomes of about U.S. $3,000 in purchasing power terms to about $5,000 in the next twenty years. This is the range of per capita income at which demand for consumer goods and services grow exponentially at double-digit rates. As Pesek remarked: “Talk about a no-brainer for investors.” Despite some turbulence that is inevitable in a fledgling democracy, I am sure that it will be business as usual in Indonesia for those who want to take advantage of the many investment opportunities in this young and populous Archipelago of 14,000 islands. For comments, my email address is bvillegas@uap.edu.ph.
印尼的地理位置得天獨厚，位於能夠從亞 洲新興市場中崛起的兩個增長三角中。 首 先是 「中國 – 印度 – 印尼鐵三角」。相較 歐盟，日本和俄羅斯不斷縮減的人口，這 三個國家將於未來十年增加1.7億的勞動人 口。東南亞一家獵頭公司Asia Select的Jesus Zulueta將越南，印尼和菲律賓稱為東盟的 VIP，而印尼另一個可歸屬的增長三角正是 東盟的VIP。這三個國家擁有超過4億的消費 者，天然資源豐富，可能成為資源匱乏國 家，包括中國及其東北亞鄰國及地區日本， 韓國和台灣的資源籃子。從購買力角度看， 未來的20年，這三個國家都將從3,000美元人 均收入水平發展到5,000美元水平，帶動消費 品和服務需求的雙位數增長。正如Pesek所 說：「投資者根本不用動腦」。儘管這個民 主國家才剛起步，一些動盪在所難免，但我 堅信，對於想在這個人口稠密，由14,000個 島嶼組成的年輕群島國家獲利的人，印尼將 一切如常。對本文如有評論，請發電郵至： bvillegas@uap.edu.ph. |AT|
The President, especially with the help of his Minister of Finance, was able to successfully prosecute some
very high officials, including the father of his son-in-law. SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
24
Economy
Economic Development for
While Malaysia’s Prime Minister
and Finance Minister Dato’ Sri Najib Razak has set his economic sights on 6% growth this year, the nation’s sleepy East Coast is destined for a little catch up with the more industrially advanced West Coast. 儘管馬來西亞總理和財政部長納吉布 （Najib）將今年國家經濟發展目標設定在 6%的水平，但該國不活躍的東海岸地區 還是註定要落後於工業較發達的西海岸地 區。
While the East Coast has been the centre for Malaysia’s petroleum industry for several decades, it is also considered the cultural heartland of the nation. The East Coast has lagged behind the West Coast in its industrial and infrastructure development. Despite the pace of life in the east being much slower and a place where traditional values reign supreme, the government has earmarked several major economic projects for the area with a vision to make the East Coast a developed region by 2020.
過去數十年來，東海岸不僅是馬來西亞 石油工業的中心，也被視為國家的文化中 心地帶。它在工業和基礎設施發展方面落 後於西海岸。東部的生活節奏相對較慢且 傳統觀念至上，而政府已在該地區啟動了 幾個大型經濟項目，希望將東岸在2020年 之前發展成為發達地區。
Planned development is to be introduced under the East Coast
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
Economic Region (ECER). This region covers an area of almost 67,000km2 and comprises the states of Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan and the district of Mersing in the state of Johor. This represents 50% of Peninsular or West Malaysia and extends along the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) nucleus of the ECER; a strip 25km wide by 140km long from Pekan in the south to Kertih in the north. 根據「東海岸經濟區」（ECER）安排， 東岸將引入規劃式發展。該地區佔地 67,000平方公里，包括彭亨，丁加奴，吉蘭 丹以及柔佛州的豐盛港區，占半島或西馬
50%的人口，並延伸至東海岸經濟特區的 中心；是一塊從南至北，自根北到克特長 140公里，寬25公里的帶狀區域。
The ECER has set out to move the East Coast economy up the value change, to raise the capacity for knowledge and innovation, to improve the standard and sustainability of life and, to address persistent socio-economic inequalities, constructively and positively. To achieve this the government has earmarked RM112 (US$28) billion for expenditure under the ECER plan until 2020. In all there are 189 projects that could generate an additional 550,000 jobs and benefit
Economy
馬來西亞東海岸的 作者/by: David Bowden
經濟發展
the four million Malaysians who live in the area.
東海岸經濟區旨在提升東岸經濟在產業 鏈上的位置，提高其知識與創新能力，改 善生活標準和可持續性，並以建設性和積 極的態度解決由來已久的社會經濟不平等 問題。為達到這一目的，政府已啟動東海 岸經濟區計劃，在2020年前斥資1120億馬 幣（280億美元），投入189個項目，創造 55萬個就業機會，令生活在該地區的400萬 馬來西亞人受益。
Based upon a Master Plan developed in October 2007 by the Malaysian national oil company, PETRONAS the major clusters of economic development
are tourism, manufacturing, oil, gas and petrochemicals, agriculture and education. The area is seen as a strategic gateway to the markets of Asia Pacific with direct access to Thailand, China, Japan, Korea and the Philippines. 在馬亞西亞國家石油公司PETRONAS於 2007年10月制定的《總體規劃》基礎上， 經濟發展的主要領域為旅遊業，製造業， 石油，天然氣，化工，農業與教育。它們 被視為直接通往亞太市場，包括泰國， 中國，日本，韓國和菲律賓的戰略要道。
Special privileges will be provided within the SEZ of the ECER to accelerate development. Unique privileges
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and exclusive incentives will be accorded to high-impact projects within the integrated free zone of the SEZ. The economy here will move from labourintensive industries to high technology, knowledge-based activities and the service sector and, it is planned, to create 50% of all employment and 80% of the total economic output for the ECER. 東海岸經濟區內的經濟特區將被賦予特 權以促進發展。經濟特區內集成自由區的 重量級項目將獲得特殊權利和專門優惠。 該地區經濟將從勞動密集型產業向高科 技，知識導向型活動以及服務領域轉變， 這些領域預計將創造東海岸經濟區50%的 就業和80%的經濟產出。
While tourism is reasonably wellestablished in the area the destination depends a lot on its natural assets of tranquil islands, coral reefs, mangrove estuaries and long stretches of mostly untouched beaches. The lifestyle is laidback and while this appeals to some sectors of the tourism industry, other tourists require sophisticated tourism facilities and infrastructure. The Master Plan has identified six distinct tourism sectors of coastal tourism, urban tourism, cultural and heritage tourism, ecotourism, cross-border tourism (with neighbouring southern Thailand) and sustainable island tourism. One of the major integrated resort developments will focus on Mersing and the offshore islands including the best known and most popular island of Tioman. 當地旅遊業發展較好，主要依託於寧靜 的島嶼，珊瑚礁，海欖雌河口和漫長而保 存完好的海灘，人民生活悠游自在。這裏 的生活方式或許適合旅遊業的部分領域， 但其他遊客要求當地具備成熟的旅遊設施 和基礎建設。《總體規劃》列出了六大重要 的旅遊領域：海岸旅遊，城市旅遊，文化 和遺產旅遊，生態旅遊，邊界旅遊（與泰 國南部交界地區）以及可持續島嶼旅遊。 主要的旅遊勝地綜合開發項目之一，將會 集中於柔佛州和近海島嶼，包括著名且最 受歡迎的刁曼島。
There is more talk of limiting carrying capacity for some of the pristine islands and their surrounding coral reefs. Homestay programmes to experience authentic village life are important as is the creation of hallmark events to lure high-end tourists. Heritage has always been important on the East Coast as it
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
26
Economy
Pengkalan Kubor
Pengkalan Kubor
VISION
Kota Bharu
Kota Bahru
Bukit Bunga
EDUCATION
AGRICULTURE
MANUFACTURING
THE MAIN PILLARS
OIL, GAS AND PETROCHEMICAL
KEY DRIVERS
TOURISM
Rantau Panjang
Kuala Besut
Kuala Terengganu
KELANTAN TERENGGANU
Gua Musang
Dungun
Supporting Manufacturing Avtivities, Logistic, ICT, Financial Services and Related Services Support System
ENABLERS
Adequate Physical Infrastructure Basic Foundation (Hard & Soft Infrastructure)
Kertih
Supporting Institutions (Education, R&D, Government, Private and Social Institutions, Trade Associations, Communication and Coordination System)
Kuala Lipis
Chukai
Kuala Lipis
Strong Basic Education and Training
PAHANG Kuantan
Conducive Working and Living Environment Stable Political & Social Environment Bentong
Temerloh/Mentakab
Pekan
Kuala Rompin
Mersing
Coast Expressway. Kuala Terengganu Airport has attained international status while Kuantan and Kota Bharu will be upgraded to regional airports. Seaports in Kemaman, Kuantan and Kertih will be enhanced to cater to the needs of future investors and studies will be carried out to investigate the potential of linking the West Coast rail network to the East Coast. The Kuantan Port City integrated development for example, is expected to increase port tonnage by more than threefold from currently 9.4 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes by 2020. By 2020, Gross Domestic Product is projected to grow by an average annual rate of 7.2 per cent in the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) with a per capita GDP in the region expected to more than double to RM13,510 in 2020, indicating the move toward a more knowledge and technology driven economy. Source: ECER Master Plan & ECER Investor Guide
is the home of the nation’s handicraft industries such as batik, silverware, wood-carving and songket weaving. The government will have to follow a delicate path that promotes development while preserving the East Coast’s unique culture identity and its fragile ecosystems. 當前，關於限制一些原始島嶼及周邊珊 瑚礁接待能力的討論越來越多。體驗真正 鄉村生活的民居接待節目成為吸引高端遊 客的招牌活動。文化遺產對東岸地區向來 非常重要，因為當地是蠟紡印花布，銀
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
器，木雕和宋革（songket）編織等全國手工 業的故鄉。政府將在促進發展和保護東岸 文化特徵和脆弱的生態體統之間尋求一條 獨特的道路。
Transportation infrastructure is important in any growth area and already the government has committed to the upgrading of the Central Spine Road (connecting Kuala Krai in the northernmost state of Kelantan to the North South Expressway running the length of the West Coast) and, the East
交通基礎設施對任何發展地區都至關重 要，政府已承諾升級中央樞紐道路（連接 最北部吉蘭丹州瓜拉吉賴與穿越西海岸的 南北高速路）和東海岸高速路。丁加奴機 場已獲得國際地位，而關丹和哥打巴魯機 場將被升級為地區機場。甘馬挽，關丹和 克特海港也將進一步升級，以滿足未來的 投資者需求。對連接西海岸鐵路網絡和新 海岸潛力的研究即將啟動。其中關丹港城 市綜合發展有望將港口噸位提升三倍以 上，即從現在的940萬噸提升至2020年的 3,000萬噸。
Already RM24 (US$6.6) billion of investment have been committed to the ECER. It is the government’s hope that this investment will give the region a competitive edge in becoming a regional, world-class investment opportunity.
Economy
東海岸經濟區已獲得240億馬幣（66億美 元）的投資。政府希望這筆投資能令該地 區獲得競爭優勢，成為一個區域性，世界 級的投資機會。
易和工業部接觸，表示有興趣到馬來西 亞投資。
增加外商投資向來是政府的要務之一。 自當選總理並宣佈經濟自由化後，納吉布 在選區的支持率迅速上升。馬來西亞也獲 得國際商業社會的積極反饋，商界人士看 來更加樂於到馬來投資。
復甦儘管仍處初期階段，但已有跡象表 明經濟正緩慢好轉。6月工業產出顯示由於 電器和電子產品出口情況改善，經濟下降 放緩。但工業產出指數與2008年6月相比仍 下降9.6%。統計部6月表示，生產總值下降 13.1%，而電器和電子產品生產增加2.5%.。
Increasing foreign investment into the country is one of the government’s priorities. Following the announcement of liberalisation of the economy since becoming Prime Minister, Najib’s popularity amongst the electorate has rapidly increased. The country has also received positive feedback from the international business community who, it would appear, are more favourably disposed to investing in the country.
Deputy Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir has been reported as saying many foreign companies have contacted his department to express interest in investing in Malaysia since the Prime Minister recently made the announcement to open up the economy. 據報道，國際貿易和工業副部長Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir表示，自從總理近期宣佈 開放經濟後，眾多外國公司已與國際貿
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While it is still early days, there are signs that the economy is improving slowly. Industrial output in June showed a slower decline due to improved exports for electrical and electronic products. However, it was still a decline and yearon-year the Industrial Production Index decreased 9.6 % compared to June 2008 figures. Reporting these figures, the Statistics Department stated that in June, manufacturing dropped 13.1% while the electrical and electronics products posted a 2.5% increase.
The minister along with his government hope that the liberalisation of the economy will assist local companies to become more competitive. At the same time, the people of the East Coast are looking to the development of the ECER to ensure that an equitable share of the national economic development comes their way. 總理和政府均希望經濟自由化能幫助公
司更具競爭力。同時，東海岸人民期待東 海岸經濟區發展，以確保他們能夠分享到 國家經濟發展成果的應有份額。|AT| For More Information Contact: A one-stop centre has been established by the East Coast Region Development Council (www.acerdc. com.my) to fast-track investment applications and approvals. 如需瞭解更多資料，請聯繫提供快速投資申 請和批准服務的一站式服務中心——東海岸 地區發展委員會（www.acerdc.com.my）。
Kuala Terengganu City Project SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
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Economy
The
「韓流」
Korean
Wave 作者/by Bruce Curran
Jutting out like a giant claw
from mainland Asia, with the Yellow Sea to its left, Korea lies due west of Japan. Sitting some 35 degrees north of the equator the country enjoys a climate tuned to a long chilly winter. If its snow sports one is after then this is a good place to go.
韓國地處朝鮮半島南端，西臨黃海，東望 日本，猶如一支巨爪從亞洲大陸伸向海 洋。它的大部份國土位於北緯35度上下， 冬季寒冷漫長。對於喜好雪地運動的人們 來說，這裏是個不錯的地方。
On the economic front Korea is a powerhouse in several major industries, including steel, electronics, car manufacturing, construction, textiles and footwear, armaments, chemicals and shipbuilding. Standards of living are high relative to most surrounding Asian countries. The price of good infrastructure and a highly developed economy is counter-balanced by a high cost of living. 經濟方面，韓 國在鋼鐵，電 子，汽車製造， 建築，紡織及鞋 類，軍備，化工 及造船業等許多
重要行業實力不凡。較之於大多數亞洲鄰 國，韓國的生活水準相對優越。雖然有完 善的基建設施和高度發達的經濟，但這些 優勢卻被高昂的生活成本所抵銷。
Going South 南方的樂土 In the past decade, the middle group in Korean society, modestly wealthy and prone to warmer climes, have discovered another land that offers them some of the answers for their insatiable tastes and suits their pocket books. Not only are they attracted to a much more affordable cost of living, but the very low price of labour relative to their homeland has been a deciding factor for many. Throw in cheaper A group of Korean ladies spending holidays in the Philippines property rental
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
levels, a tropical climate, beaches galore, and a 4 hour flight home and you have a paradise on tap – the Philippines.
過去十年，韓國社會中那些手頭寬裕 又愛溫暖氣候的中產階層，發現了一方既 適合他們的興致，又適合他們的銀包的樂 土。在那裏，吸引他們的不僅是較低的生 活費用，還有遠比本土低廉的勞工成本， 這正是促使韓國人南遷的決定因素。便宜 的房租，宜人的熱帶氣候，風景如畫的海 灘，加上離家不過4個小時的航程，一個夢 幻天堂近在眼前—菲律賓。
The Courting Game 島國的殷勤 The Philippines has leapt lock stock and two smoking barrels into enticing foreign visitors, and has had massive success in drawing in tourists from around the world, and has increasingly focused on visitors from Asia. The Korean fraternity have picked up the ball and bought in wholeheartedly to the Philippine game. In fact they have taken the package several steps further, seen opportunity
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Economy
photograph © lealex
and set up shop. They have flexed their influence, and enthusiastically laid down roots and set up home all over these tropical islands. The Korean population in the Philippines now has a significant influence in a surprising number of places.
Koreans love the warm climate in the country. They find the cost of vacation trips in the Philippines quite cheap.
菲律賓一直不遺餘力地招徠外國遊客， 成功吸引了全世界的旅行者前來觀光，現 在她正加大力度吸引來自亞洲的遊客。韓 國聯誼會領受了這份好意，決心情定菲律 賓。實際上，他們已捷足先登，四處尋 找機遇，開設店鋪。他們的影響力不斷滲 透，並滿懷熱情地在這片熱帶島嶼上落地 生根，安家落戶。如今，旅居菲律賓的韓 國人正顯著影響著這裏的大部份地區。
Economic Enticements 經濟的誘餌 Like many countries, the Philippines is keen to attract overseas investment. Employment in the country is lean for the masses. The Philippines have wound themselves into the “Overseas Filipino Worker” (OFW) syndrome, with more than a total of 11 million of its people working and living abroad, and underpinning a healthy economy by sending in cash remittances for families, home purchase and operating businesses. This is all very well for bringing in some
The Business Outsourcing Processing (BPO) industry is creating millions of jobs in the new world order, but there is plenty of room for other businesses on home soil.
在新的世界秩序中，業務流程外判 (BPO)產業創造了數之不盡的就業機會，其 他業務在國內亦有充份的發展潛力。
For one, The Philippine Retirement
now living in the Philippines. This is more than 1% of the total population in the country, and its influence is quite remarkable in a surprising number of places around the country.
韓國人將這些計劃照單全收，為其所 用，並將這些計劃巧妙地組織在一起，滿 足自身的需求。菲律賓現居住著120萬韓 國人，佔該國總人口的1%以上，深深地影 響著菲律賓的大部份 地區。
The result is a quoted figure of 1.2 million Koreans now living in the Philippines. This is more than 1% of the total population in the country, and its influence is quite remarkable... 16 billion dollars annually, but does not exactly support their Christian motto of “families that pray together stay together”- in fact the system in some ways undermines the unity of family obligations.
同許多國家一樣，菲律賓亦熱衷於吸 引外資。國內就業機會匱乏，令其身陷 「菲律賓海外勞工」（菲律賓外勞）綜 合症，該國共有逾1100萬人在國外工作生 活，勞工寄往家中的匯款用於生活開支， 購房置業和經營業務，支撐菲律賓的經 濟健康運行。每年從海外寄回約160億美 元固然可喜，但這與「一家人共同祈禱， 共同生活」（families that pray together stay together）的基督教箴言卻背道而馳—實際 上，這種體制在一定程度上破壞了不離不 棄，相互扶持的家庭氛圍。
Authority has a massive machine for attracting foreigners to reside here, spend their money here, and also encourages these migrants to set up businesses here. In fact there is a whole web of supportive immigration packages that bring in the alien masses. 菲律賓退休署設有龐大的機構，專門吸 引海外人士來此定居消費，同時鼓勵移民 創業。實際上，菲律賓有一整套吸引外籍 人士的鼓勵移民計劃。
The Korean Factor 韓國人的因素 The Koreans have taken all these packages and utilised them to their advantage, and cleverly woven them together to suit their own ends. The result is a quoted figure of 1.2 million Koreans
The Korean Trail
韓國人的足跡
The language barrier has an overriding effect. The Koreans are not versed in the English language and must rely on those they meet. But their formula is a simple one – stick to your own Kind.
語言不通是最大的障礙。韓國人並不精 通英語，只能依賴自己所碰到的人。 他們解決之道卻非常簡單—與韓國人 為伍。
In Seoul a family hops on a Korean plane, arrives in Manila to be picked up by a Korean travel agent, stays in a Korean hotel, eats at a Korean restaurant, and goes diving with Korean scuba instructors. 一家人在首爾登上韓國飛機，抵達馬尼 拉時由韓國旅行社接機，在韓國酒店住 宿，去韓國餐廳用餐，潛水時由韓國教 練指導。
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It may be a perfect formula for them, but it has its pitfalls. In fact it has created an undercurrent of uneasiness within the local population. The Filipinos are a people friendly beyond compare, and love to mix with foreigners at any opportunity. Their americanised twang slang Philspeak-English, gives them opportunity to talk in an understood version of a widely spoken language, and they warm to the simplest communication. However, the Koreans, even though they have had a long standing bond with the USA, have not had the need (till now) to master English. 這對他們可能是種完美的解決之道，但 並非萬事大吉。事實上，這已引起本地居 民的不安情緒。菲律賓人十分熱情好客， 一有機會就喜歡跟外國人打交道。他們能 說一口帶有菲律賓口音的美式英語，這使 他們有機會使用一種廣泛通用語言進行溝 通。他們對這種最簡單的交流亦樂此不 疲。儘管韓國人與美國之間的聯繫由來已 久，但他們（迄今為止）並沒有要掌握英 語的需求。
English Speak 說英語 In order to ‘fit-in’ and ‘to be accepted’ by the Filipinos, the Koreans are grasping the bull by the horns, and everywhere you go, the younger generation are learning English. English language schools are popping up everywhere, and internet lessons are a popular way of getting in on the act.
Korean students in St. Paul College, Pasig city
為了「融入菲律賓」並受到菲律賓人的 「接納」，韓國人迎難而上，不論去往何 處，你都能見到年輕的一代正在學習英語。 英語學校如雨後春筍般地興起，互聯網教程 作為一種學習英語的手段亦頗受歡迎。
There has been a whole new wave of Korean migration, all on the back of speaking the English.
有了英語作為後盾，韓國湧現出一股全 新的移民潮。
Major Projects 大型項目 Speaking in Seoul earlier this year the President Macapagal Arroyo pushed
the Philippines as “the best value for investment in the region” and urged Korean businessmen to invest in the country. She particularly pointed at the opportunities in mining, energy, bio-fuels, technology, tourism and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO). 今年年初，阿羅約總統在首爾講話時表 示，菲律賓將力爭成為「本地區最具投資 價值」的國家，並鼓勵韓國企業家到菲律 賓投資。她特別指出採礦，能源，生物燃 料，科技，旅遊及業務流程外判(BPO)領域 蘊藏著巨大機遇。
Korea’s Hanjin Heavy Industries and Samsung have both already heavily invested in the Philippines. Last May 30th, two Korean electric companies pledged to invest US$200 million in wind power projects in the Philippine islands. These serious intentions bode well for the economy of the future. 韓國的韓進重工及三星均已大力投資菲 律賓。去年5月30日，兩家韓國電子公司 承諾對菲律賓群島的風力項目投資2億美 元。這些鄭重的投資意向預示著良好的經 濟前景。
On the Ground: Subic Bay, Zambales Province 建設: 三描禮示省蘇比克灣 This major centre of commerce lies a 2 hour drive north of Manila, with good roads all the way. 這個主要的商務中心距馬尼拉北部兩小 時的車程，沿途公路設施完善發達。
In Subic Bay, over the past few years the Koreans have set up a major shipyard. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
Economy
In their early days in the Philippines the Korean company ‘Hanjin’ built roads and bridges in the deep south, in Mindanao. They liked what they saw, and Subic Bay was a major attraction. 過去幾年，韓國人已在蘇比克灣設立大 型船廠。韓國公司「韓進」在進駐菲律賓 的早期，就在南方腹地棉蘭老島修路建 橋。他們喜愛那裏的景致，而蘇比克灣正 是一個主要的旅遊勝地。
The story begins with Shell. They previously set up a yard in Subic to build part of the platform for the Malampaya Gas Field that lies to the west of Palawan Island. This gas field is now a major contributor to the future fuel supplies of the Philippines.
殼牌公司在此首開先河。該公司先在蘇 比克開闢了一塊場地，以便在巴拉望島西 面建設平台開發Malampaya天然氣田。如今 這個天然氣田已成為菲律賓未來燃料供給 的主要來源。
When they left, Hanjin Heavy Industries Inc. (ShipBuilding) seized the opportunity and took their space, and after building a sophisticated shipyard, they have been building world class large ships. They ultimately intend to employ 15,000 in and around the shipyard operation, which brings in a lot of peripheral benefits to the local community.
殼牌公司前腳離開，韓進重工（造船） 便抓住機會，緊跟而上，在此建好一個精 良的造船廠之後，他們便開始製造世界級 的大型船隻。他們最終打算聘用15,000名 員工，在船廠及附近工作，這將為當地社
Hanjin Shipyard in Subic Bay has produced the biggest ship ever built in the Philippines consigned by a Greek Logistics company
區帶來許多周邊效益。
It may well become the 3rd largest shipyard in Asia, but its quick rise to operation has caused concerns about safety standards, and this element is still very much a critical issue. 該 公 司有望躋身於亞洲第三大造船 廠 ， 但 規模的快速擴張亦引發對安全 標 準 的 憂慮，而安全是一個極其重要 的問題。
Busuanga Island, Palawan Province
巴拉望省布蘇安加島
The 128 islands of the Calamian Group lie well north of Palawan Island. The main islands of Busuanga, Coron and Culion are surrounded by islands of great beauty, and great tourist potential. There is a major project underway to reconstruct and redevelop the primary town of Coron.
擁有128個島嶼的卡拉綿群島位於巴拉 望島以北。布桑加，科隆島及卡裏奧等主 要島嶼被美輪美奐的潛在旅遊勝地所圍 繞。現已展開大型項目對科隆鎮進行重建 及開發。
Korean money has been pouring in to develop the airport facilities, with the intention for international jet aircraft to land directly from overseas, and avoid the laborious turnaround in Manila. Needless to say, Korean resort consortiums are in on the act, and flights from Korea will fill their rooms. 韓國已投入大量資金建造機場設施，以 便海外的國際噴氣式飛機可直接抵達，而 避免在馬尼拉轉機。當然，韓國度假財團
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肯定會紛紛參與，韓國的航班因此會佔有 一席之地。
Cebu City, Cebu Province 宿務省宿務市 Known as the central capital of the Philippines, international flights have been landing here for decades, and around specific enclaves of the city Korean businesses thrive, providing all levels of consumerism from food to karaoke bars and places to rest Korean heads.
宿務市是菲律賓中部的首府，國際航班 往來於此已有數十年之久，毗鄰之處韓國人 的生意十分紅火，從餐飲到KTV會所，酒吧 以及其他款待韓國人的設施，應有盡有。
And the Rest 其他方面 Baguio is brim full of thriving Korean groups. High school graduations have been known to have as many as three quarters of the students as Koreans. Bacolod has a burgeoning Korean student population. Several other thriving centres are absorbing this Korean Wave. 碧瑤市的韓國人口激增。高中畢業生有 四分之三是韓國學生。巴科洛市的韓國學 生人數亦節節攀升。許多其他繁華的中心 城市亦積極吸納這股「韓流」。
The Capital 首都 Makati City, in the heart of Manila, has well established Korean communities, with grocery stores, health spas, churches, Karaoke outlets, eateries, banks, and a weekly 20-page magazine entirely written in Korean.
M/V Argolikos built by Hanjin Shipyard Subic displaces 41,000 tons and was built at a cost of $60 million US.
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Korean stores are common in the Philippines specially where there are a lot of other Korean establishments such as restaurants
馬卡迪市位於馬尼拉的中心，建有設備 完善的韓式社區，雜貨店，健康水療中 心，教堂，KTV會所，食肆，銀行等一應 俱全，還出版有20頁的韓文週刊。
Malate is a known and well established yuppie and trendy area, and now has a significant Korean enclave serving its people with all the delights of a night out on the town.
Malate設施完善，是深受雅皮士青睞的時 尚地區，此處現成為鎮上民眾夜晚消遣娛 樂的主要聚集地。
Billiards is the number one game amongst Filipinos, with more world champions than any other sport. Korean owned billiard halls are even on tap these days.
檯球是菲國人最熱衷的一項體育運動， 為該國贏得最多的世界冠軍頭銜。如今， 韓國人開設的檯球館隨處可見。
The Wave「韓流」 If its Kimshi based food products you are after, Korean barbeque, a Korean song on karaoke, or just a night out in miniKorea, there are several places you can go here in the Philippines, especially if you can’t spare the time or money to fly to Seoul, the true heart of Korea.
如果想品嘗泡菜，韓國燒烤，或在卡 拉OK點唱韓國歌曲，或是夜遊迷你韓國 城，菲律賓有很多好去處，尤其是倘無時 間或財力前往真正的韓國首都首爾，菲律
賓絕對是不二之選。
Add in the Korean tourist numbers, tack on expatriate immigration, students and businessmen and over 700,000 Koreans trooped into the Philippines in the last 12 months. Definitively here are a people committed to these lush tropical island; a people who are on the crest of a new wave cutting swathes in the economy; in many ways living somewhat isolated within their own fringe as an alien society; a people nevertheless very much here to stay. 過去12個月共有逾700,000韓國人 進入菲律賓，其中包括遊客，外籍移 民，學生及商人。他們儼然成了這片 熱帶島嶼上的一個族群；一個將在新 一輪浪潮中大顯身手的族群；一個生 活範圍相對隔絕的外來族群；一個勢 必在此紮根的族群。
There must be sense in this Korean Wave, and the rest of the world should take note. The Philippines is riding on the crest of a mild but vibrant economy, which has recently caught up, somehow, with the rest of Asia during these murky times. The tide might be out, but waves of opportunity are still rolling along within the Republic of the Philippines.
「韓流」湧動必有原因，世界其他國 家也該有所察覺。事實上，菲律賓的 經 濟 發 展 溫 和 平 穩 ， 充 滿 生 機 ，在 亞 洲其他各國深陷泥潭之際，菲律賓在 某種程度上已有迎頭趕上之勢。這股 「韓潮」或將退卻，但菲律賓仍將處 處 湧 現 機 遇 。 |AT| ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
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Economy
What Drives the
Oil Price
誰動了油價？ 作者/by Michael Wilson
Donald Rumsfeld, the hapless organiser of
George W Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq, won’t go down in history for many successes. But he hit the spot with his sharp observation that the trickiest things in life were the “unknown unknowns” - the things we don’t even know that we don’t know. Those are the things, he said, that make the “known knowns” and the “known unknowns” seem simple by comparison. 曾幫助喬治布殊於2003年發動伊拉克戰爭的拉姆斯菲爾德 （Donald Rumsfeld）雖然略欠運氣，也不大可能流芳青史，但他 對「未知的未知」—我們甚至不知道自己不知的事情，卻觀察 入微，並認為，這「未知的未知」，便是我們生活中最難以捉摸 的部分。他指出，相較這一部分，「已知的已知」和「已知的未 知」顯然簡單得多。
Nowhere is this more true today than in the oil market. ‘Expert bodies’ like the International Energy Agency have been getting it all quite hideously wrong in the last year or so. And there is no sign yet that they have learned anything from their mistakes. 對於時下的原油市場，這句話再正確不過。國際能源機構 （IEA）等 「專家團體」在過去一年來對油價的預測錯誤百出，
並且沒有跡象顯示他們 已經吃一塹，長一智。
Ghastly Forecasts
預測失准
Is that too cruel? Let’s consider, for instance, the time in June 2008 when the IEA declared that the abnormally high oil price of US$139 per Donald Rumsfeld barrel was “entirely justified” by the market fundamentals of the day. Oil producers’ output had slowed sharply, the IEA said, and nobody was investing enough in new facilities to ease the supply squeeze. At the same time, the unstoppable demand from Asia was making sky-high oil prices essential “to choke off demand [and] to balance the market”. 這是否太過殘酷？想想看，一個例子是，2008年7月，IEA宣佈 高達139美元每桶的油價是當時的市場基本面「完全合理」的決
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to $70 by early June, where it was still looking firm by the end of July.
再以後呢？09年1月，西德州中質油 （West Texas Intermediate crude）甚至探底 至每桶30美元。IEA宣佈，在復蘇前，價 格可能下降到每桶25美元甚至20美元。美 林銀行對此表示同意，認為隨著中國減少 原油進口，其經濟將會於2009年初轉入衰 退。但事實上，眾所周之，中國經濟的年 增長率仍保持在7%-8%，通脹轉為通縮， WTI價格於6月初回升至每桶70美元，直至 7月底仍然堅挺。
There, then, is the evidence for the prosecution. Neither the IEA nor the world’s finest analysts have even the slightest clue about oil prices or which way they’re heading. To find out why, let’s go back to Mr Rumsfeld.
結果證明機構預測自打嘴巴。IEA也 好，全世界最出色的分析師也罷，都對 油價摸不著頭腦，更別提預測走勢。 為瞭解原因，讓我們回到拉姆斯菲爾 德這裏。
WTI Crude Oil - Daily Posted Price from Aug’08 to Aug’09 定，並聲言，油產量已大幅下降，對新設施 的投資嚴重不足，因此未能緩解供應的緊 張。同時，亞洲勢不可擋的需求使得高油價 成為「遏制需求（及）平衡市場的關鍵。」
Bankers Goldman Sachs went further. Oil prices would reach $200 by December, they said, and we had better get used to the coming “super-spike”. Meanwhile Gazprom, the Russian oil and gas giant, opted for $250. Soaring oil prices would plunge the world into an inflationary spiral, they insisted. We were all doomed.
高盛更加離譜。他們預測，2008年 12月，油價將會升到每桶200美元，我們最 好習慣即將到來的「超高油價」。同時，俄 羅斯石油及燃氣巨頭Gazprom提出了每桶 250美元的價格預期。他們堅稱，持續攀升 的油價會將全世界拖入通貨膨脹的循環。 大家命該如此。
So what actually happened? Well, the subprime banking crisis struck, the global economy slumped, and the oil price plummeted to end 2008 at just $38 - less than a fifth of what the “experts” had forecast six months earlier. Oops. 但事實呢？銀行次貸危機出現，全球 經濟下滑，2008年底的油價低至每桶 38美元，不到6個月前「專家」們所預測 價格的1/5。
And after that? In January this year, as West Texas Intermediate crude hit $30 a barrel, the IEA declared that it would drop to $25 or even $20 before recovering. Bankers Merrill Lynch agreed, insisting that China’s economy was likely to go into recession during early 2009 as it cut its oil imports. But instead, as we now know, China carried on growing by 7-8% a year, inflation turned into deflation, and WTI soared
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Rumsfeld’s Unfathomables
拉姆斯菲爾德之惑
There are, of course, “known unknowns” as well as “unknown unknowns” in play here. And the first, obviously, is the level and direction of future demand.
既然有「未知的未知」，必定有 「已知的未知」。很明顯地，我們 首要的「已知的未知」，就是未來 需求的水平和方向。
It’s easy enough to take a view on where the Western world’s oil needs are heading, now that so many countries are trying to reduce their consumption. But when it comes to China and India - two countries which are largely outside the IEA’s experience - we simply don’t have the metrics to assess the situation. We have no idea, for instance, how many cars will be sold in Asia, or whether price resistance will set in as oil prices rise - or, if so, when and where?
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要預測西方國家石油需求的趨勢相當簡 單，眼見這許多國家已經開始減少石油消 耗。但說到中國和印度—這兩個IEA並無太 多經驗的國家，我們委實難以得知IEA怎 樣能夠評估它們的現狀。我們不知道的事 情包括亞洲的轎車銷量，或價格阻力會否 在油價升高時出現，以及，如果這真的發 生，它會發生在何時？何地？
The second “known unknown” is the amount of recoverable petroleum still left in the earth, and how long it will last. Every time we think we’ve finally located the last of the world’s reserves, somebody invents a way of extracting oil from old and supposedly exhausted wells. And every time the petroleum price rises, it becomes more financially viable to squeeze oil from alternatives like oil shale or tar sands, or even from plants like the jatropha bush, which yields something like kerosene when you crush it. Those reserves just keep on growing… 第二個「已知的未知」是地球上可開採 汽油的數量，以及能夠持續多久。每次我 們認為，我們終於能找到世界最後的儲 藏，總有人會發明從老舊或已經乾枯的油 井中找到油的方法。而且每次油價攀升
The second “known unknown” is the amount of recoverable petroleum still left in the earth, and how long it will last.
時，從油葉岩或油砂，甚至青桐木等其他 途徑採油的方式就顯得更加經濟。青桐 木，當你擠壓它的時候，它會分泌出煤油 一樣的物質。這些另類的儲量持續上升…
For what it’s worth, The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 declared in June that proven worldwide oil reserves totalled 1,258 billion barrels, excluding Canada’s oil sands - which was enough, it said, to supply the world for 42 years at 2008 production rates. At 2008 production rates? How likely is that? 對於油價，《BP世界能源 統計回顧》（BP Statistical
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Economy
Review of World Energy）於2009 年6月宣 稱已探明除加拿大油砂以外的全球油儲量 共為12,580億桶。同時稱，按照2008年的 生產率，加拿大油砂足以供給全世界42年 的需求。按照2008年的生產率？可能性到 底有多大？
The third unknown - a proper “unknown unknown” - is fear. In mid2008, when the IEA made its shocking price forecast, it said that the OPEC producing nations had barely 5% spare capacity left - equivalent to about 2 million barrels per day. This meant that the loss of even a small production capacity like Iraq’s would plunge the global supply/demand balance into crisis. And if a giant like Iran ever stopped selling, it would be utterly catastrophic. 第三個未知—一個理所當然的「未知的 未知」是恐懼。2008年中，當IEA作出令 人稱奇的價格預測時，它表示OPEC產油 國僅有5%的產能剩餘—約等於每天200萬 桶。這意味著，即便少了小到像伊拉克那 麼小的油產量，都會令全球供需平衡陷入 危機。如果像伊朗這樣的巨頭停止賣油， 那便絕對是大難臨頭。
That threat has not gone away in 2009. But probably a more terrifying “unknown unknown” is the derivatives trade. Never believe that current supply
and demand are the only factors driving the oil price. Instead, accept that volatile oil prices are down to the oil trader’s simple fear of not being able to meet his essential needs on a fixed future date. He simply has to weigh up what others are offering at the time, and pay the same.
這個威脅的烏雲直到2009年方才散去。 但，另一個更加可怖的「未知的未知」，可 能是衍生貿易。千萬別相信現在的供需是 推動油價的唯一因素。事實上，我們要接 受的是：油價之所以起落無常，是由於原 油交易商對不能在一個固定的未來日期達 到其關鍵需要而產生的簡單恐懼。他只需 要衡量其他人到時會開出的價格，然後付 出同樣的價格。
But who are those ‘others’? Increasingly, the market players include hedge fund managers who trade futures contracts short-term with no intention of ever taking physical delivery. Instead, they view the contracts as pure speculative instruments. They are allowed to use either long or short strategies - and in near-total secrecy, because many report to nobody at all. They currently control maybe a trillion dollars of investments - a lot of it in commodities. And they are incredibly fickle, often pulling out at a moment’s notice...
但，誰又是「其他人」？市場的推動因 素中包括短線交易石油期貨的對沖基金經 理，他們並無獲得實際貨物的任何意向， 只是將這些合約當成最純粹的投機工具。 他們獲准利用長期或短期策略—並且幾乎 完全保密，因為許多基金經理並不需要向 任何人報告。他們現在控制著約有10,000億 美元的投資，其中許多是商品。這些人反 復無常，時常在一眨眼間離開牌桌。
This abstract game-playing wouldn’t be a problem if the real world of oil trading could somehow distance itself from it. The problem is that, because a derivatives contract really can turn into an order for a physical shipment of oil, the distorted price it may command will effectively determine the price that real people pay for real shipments of oil, and so everybody has to work with it. Even though the hedgies could liquidate their positions and disappear without warning! Last year’s panicky projections of $149 oil, $200 oil and $20 oil probably owe more to the hedgies’ short-termism than to anything else. 如果石油交易的真實世界能與期貨市場 保持一點距離，這個抽象的遊戲就不成問 題。問題是，由於衍生合約能夠變成一張 石油的提貨訂單，其要求的離譜價格就能 有效地決定真實人群為真實貨物付出的價 格，因此每個人都不得不跟上節拍。即使 如此，這些對沖基金還是可能連吭都不吭 一聲便清空頭吋，然後人間蒸發！去年每 桶149美元，200美元，20美元的恐怖預測 可能主要是由於對沖基金的短期行為，而 非任何其他因素而造成。
That’s the bad news. But the hedge funds have had a lousy time of it in the last year, and their influence is waning. Many have lost enormous sums on the boom-and-bust pattern of last summer’s commodities market, and some have gone bust. America’s banking “stress tests” have forced many funds to repatriate their cash to the US - and the general effect has been a lessening of the stressful hype around commodity prices. Will it stay that way? Let’s hope so. 以上是壞消息。但對沖基金08年的日 子也不好過，他們的影響力也在減小， 其中許多已經在08年夏天期貨市場的泡 沫升騰與破碎中損失慘重。美國金融業 的「壓力測試」已經迫使眾多基金將現 金重新帶入美國，而整體的影響令商品 價格抽筋般沖高的情況已經減少。現狀 能維持嗎？但願如此。|AT| ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
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企業巨無霸再展宏圖
The World’s Biggest Company
Spreads Its Wings 作者/ by Michael Wilson
PHOTOGRAPH © Kaj17
China is already well up on
the world’s top podium of leading corporations. Industrial Bank of China, China Mobile, Petrochina and China Petroleum have all been firmly established in the global top ten companies for some years now, where they rub shoulders with Microsoft, Wal-Mart, Shell and Gazprom. But Petrochina secured the biggest prize of all in May when its shares were listed for the first time in Shanghai. Thanks to a huge rush of new interest from investors who had previously been
unable to buy the shares in Hong Kong or in New York, the company’s market capitalisation soared past Exxon Mobil to reach US$336 billion. Petrochina was finally the world’s biggest company. And it still is. 中國，早已在世界領先企業的大舞台上佔 據一席之地。近年的全球十大企業排名 中，工商銀行， 中移動， 中石油和中石化 總能穩佔鼇頭，與微軟， 沃爾瑪， 殼牌 和俄羅斯天然氣公司平起平坐。以上中國 公司中，中石油於09年5月在上海交易所上
市，市值高居首位。之前無法在香港或紐 約交易所購買其股票的眾多投資者蜂擁而 上，將中石油市值推高至3,360美元，遠超 埃克森美孚，成為全球第一大公司，並穩 坐頭把交椅至今。
That isn’t so surprising, perhaps, given that China is now the world’s third largest economy. Having overtaken Germany earlier this year, and with a growth rate of 7% or more, the general expectation is that China will outgrow even Japan by next year. Petrochina and its domestic rivals, including CNOOC
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Petrochina and its domestic rivals, including CNOOC and Sinopec, are working to supply a national petroleum requirement for around 7 million barrels per day (b/d)
and Sinopec, are working to supply a national petroleum requirement for around 7 million barrels per day (b/d) - which is roughly three times as much as in 1990, according to the International Energy Agency. By 2030, the Agency adds, demand will rise to 16.5 million b/d of crude oil. That will be more than the entire national output of Saudi Arabia. 由於中國經濟現居世界第三，中石油成 為世界第一大企業也就不足為奇。09年 初，中國以7％，乃至更高的增長率超越 德國，因此普遍預期中國將會在2010年超 過日本。中石油和中海油， 中石化等國 內對手正努力滿足中國的石油需求。根據 國際能源機構（IEA）數據，中國國內的 石油需求高達每天700萬桶，約為1990年 的三倍。IEA預計，2030年的原油需求將 達每天1,650萬桶，沙特全國的產量也還不 敷使用。
That’s all well and good. But there are still some important hurdles for China’s oil refiners to clear. They are hamstrung by government price controls which mean, in effect, that any sharp rise in the oil price can tip them into sudden deficit. Petrochina’s turnover rose by an impressive 28% during calendar 2008, reaching RMB 1.07 trillion - but its net profits actually fell by 22% to RMB 114 billion (when measured according to international accounting standards), because the mid-year peak of US$150 per barrel had left its refinery revenues unable to keep pace with the soaring cost of feedstocks.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
情況看來不錯，但中國油企仍有一些關 鍵難題需要解決。石油價格依然牢牢控制 在政府手中，這意味著，油價一個急升， 就可能令油企出現赤字。08年，中石油銷 售額激增28％，高達10,700億元，而淨利潤 卻下滑22％至1,140億元（根據國際會計標 準計算）。原因是08年年中油價曾飆升至每 桶150美元，導致油企的煉油收入無法跟上 原油價格高漲的步伐。
Things have been looking rather better this year. The oil price has risen only to US$70, and the authorities had allowed three retail price increases by the end of July. The company announced in mid-July that its first-half profits had been ‘at record levels’ - although its media office declined to give precise figures - and we know that the refining budget for 2009 has been increased by 6%. But Petrochina still needs to find new resources - and fast. Most of them will have to come from abroad.
新的資源，而這些資源的大部分只能從海 外補充。
The Push for New Capacity 產能告急 In theory, that isn’t a problem. Petrochina has a vast US$13 billion cash pile at present, and relatively few debts, and its management rightly reckons that this is an excellent time to seize what Chairman Jiang Jiemin has called “the historic opportunities” presented by the global economic downturn.
PetroChina CEO Chairman Jiang
Jiemin has called “the historic opportunities” presented by the global economic downturn.
今年形式已經有所好轉。油價僅上升到 70美元，政府也允許在7月底之前調高三種 油品的零售價格。中石油在7月中旬宣佈上 半年利潤「創紀錄」，但其發言人卻拒絕 提供準確數字。據我們所知，2009年的煉 油預算上升6％。但中石油短期內仍需發現
理論上這不成問題。中石油手握多達 130億美元的現金儲備，負債極少，管理層 也明智地認為，當前全球經濟低迷，正是 抓住前任主席江澤民稱為「歷史機會」的 大好時機。
In May, PetroChina agreed to buy a 45% stake in the Singapore Petroleum Company, for a reputed $2.2 billion. In June it was revealed that the company was interested in a Scottish chemicals
Economy
refinery at Grangemouth. And it has also restarted the RMB 40 billion construction of a vast catalytic cracker and ethylene project in Sichuan, which was suspended after last year’s earthquakes. The cracker alone will be big enough to handle a third of China’s current needs.
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Addax Petroleum refinery in Obangue, Gabon (West Africa)
今年5月，中石油同意以22億美元收購新 加坡石油公司45％的股份。6月，有消息 稱，中石油有意收購位於Grangemouth的 一家蘇格蘭化工廠， 同時開始重啟一座位 於四川省的大型催化裂化及乙烯項目。該 項目投資高達400億人民幣，由於去年發 生的地震，曾一度暫停。預計該裂化廠的 產能將足以滿足中國國內現時三分之一的 需求。
The trouble is that most of these new operations are upstream refinery businesses, whereas China’s most basic need is for crude oil. The IEA reckons that the country’s overall domestic petroleum production is likely to peak at 3.9 million b/d in 2012 - of which less than 800,000 b/d will come from the historic Daqing oil reserves, which are now in steep decline. In effect, half of China’s oil already needs to be imported, and before long it’ll be 70% or more. Unless companies like Petrochina can own and control their own crude oil resources, they will continue to get squeezed whenever the crude price rises.
Unfortunately, getting hold of
new mineral resources has not been easy. In 2005 Petrochina’s rival CNOOC was thwarted by the US government, on largely political grounds...
問題是，這些新項目多數屬於上游的煉 油業務，而中國最基本的需求在於原油。 IEA認為，2012年，中國國內石油產量有 望達到頂峰，即每天390萬桶， 其中只有 不到80萬桶是來自歷史上舉足輕重的大慶 油田，但該油田的儲量現正直線下降。事 實上，中國早已有一半以上的原油依賴進 口，不久的將來，這個比重將超過70％。 對於油企，除非它們能夠像中石油一樣擁 有並控制石油資源，否則，一旦原油價格 上漲，它們必將受到極大的衝擊。
Unfortunately, getting hold of new mineral resources has not been easy. In 2005 Petrochina’s rival CNOOC was thwarted by the US government, on largely political grounds, when it tried to buy into the Unocal oil company. This year’s strained relations with Australia
over Chinalco’s attempt to buy Tio Tinto have shown that it is not enough for China simply to have the money and the determination to buy overseas rights. 只可惜搶佔新的礦產資源殊不容易。 2005年，中石油的對手中海油在企圖收購 優尼科石油時，主要由於政治原因而遭到 美國政府的掣肘。今年中國鋁業企圖收購 力拓，亦導致中國與澳大利亞關係緊張。 以上事實說明，只有金錢和收購海外權益 的決心，並不足夠。
So Petrochina, CNOOC and the rest have been adopting different strategies. In June, a subsidiary of the rival Sinopec announced a US$9 billion plan to buy Addax Petroleum, a Swiss company with drilling rights in Nigeria, Iraq and Gabon. Last December, another Sinopec subsidiary paid $2 billion for Tanganyika Oil, an African producer with a mere 23,000 b/d of output. The challenge for Petrochina will be to acquire more of its own resources from abroad - and, ideally,
without raising too much of an outcry from the Western powers.
因此，中石油， 中海油以及其他同行開 始採取不同的策略。今年6月，中石化的 一家子公司宣佈，它正計劃用90億美元收 購瑞士公司Addax Petroleum，從而取得後 者在尼日利亞， 伊拉克和加蓬的開採權。 08年12月，中石化的另一家子公司用20億 美元購入非洲採油商Tanganyika Oil，其 日產量僅23,000桶。中石油面臨的挑戰， 就是將更多的海外資源納入囊中，同時盡 可能不因此而引起西方國家過多的反對聲 音。
Will that be easy? Perhaps not. China’s bids for other African mineral resources, such as copper and cobalt interests in Congo, have already ruffled government feathers in Washington. Plans to buy more copper rights in Zambia are reminding the West of how badly it has neglected Africa itself in the past. It will take all of China’s new-found confidence to stand up to entrenched opposition over oil. But the stakes are too high to risk failure. 過程能否順利？很難說。在剛果，中國 計劃收購黃銅和鈷等其他非洲礦產資源， 已經引起華盛頓的關注。而在贊比亞， 中國取得更多黃銅開採權的計劃，更給予 西方國家一個提醒：他們對非洲資源太過 疏忽。中國需要全力以赴，才能抗衡阻擋 其爭奪石油的頑固力量。中國對此押上重 注，不容有失。|AT|
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颱風與電訊
&Telecoms
Typhoons 作者/by Steve Lunt
Typhoon Morakot has wreaked
havoc across Southeast Asia, killing hundreds of people in Taiwan, China and the Philippines. And as the world’s worst typhoon in half a century claimed so many lives and destroyed countless homes, its violence was also causing serious unseen problems out at sea. Underwater landslides damaged seven underwater fiber-optic cables linking several Asian nations, so Internet connections and international voice calls were disrupted across the region and telecommunications operators scrambled to restore their services. 颱風莫拉克在東南亞造成了巨大破壞，台 灣， 中國和菲律賓有數百人喪生。這一 場半個世紀以來世界上最嚴重的颱風吞 噬了如此多的生命，破壞的房屋不計其 數，它的肆虐同時也在海岸線以外造成 了嚴重問題。海底泥石流毀壞了七條連 接亞洲數國的海底光纖電纜，令該區域 的網絡連接和國際語音通話中斷，電訊 工作人員忙於恢復服務。 ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
Many web users in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and the Philippines experienced painfully slow, stalled or frustrated Internet connections as the typhoon’s shockwaves compromised underwater cables connecting them to websites hosted in the United States. The
Taiwan after typhoon Morakot
SWM-3 (Southeast Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 3) cable was first hit by the landslides; then further seabed movements caused by the typhoon over the following days severed more cables, including the APCN (Asia Pacific Cable Network) and APCN2.
Economy
services suffered partial disruptions for two days because of damaged cables connecting so many countries: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines - where Globe Telecom and Philippine Long Distance Telephone said they had to re-route Internet traffic and some international business circuits to two other cable networks; while Smart Communications customers also experienced problems with their international voice and text services.
Network traffic across the region was severely affected by these multiple cable cuts
該區域的網絡流量受到多條海纜斷裂 的嚴重影響，菲律賓三大電訊供應商 稱，其國際長途和寬帶服務局部中斷兩 天，因為連接多個國家和地區的海纜 遭到毀壞，波及的國家和地區包括中 國， 香港， 日本， 韓國， 台灣， 馬來 西亞， 新加坡和菲律賓。全球電訊公司 （Globe Telecom）和菲律賓長途電話公 司（Philippine Long Distance Telephone） 表示，他們必須將網絡流量和一些國際商 業線路繞行連接到其他兩個海纜網絡，而 Smart Communications的客戶也在使用國際 語音和短信服務時遇到問題。
颱風的衝擊波損害了連接美國網站的 海纜，令台灣， 香港， 新加坡和菲律賓 的許多用戶在上網時網速緩慢，甚至頻 繁中斷。法新歐亞三號電纜（SWM-3： 東南亞—中東—西歐三號電纜）首先遭到 泥石流毀壞，隨後幾天的颱風引起的進一 步海床面振動造成更多的海纜斷裂，包括 亞太光纖網絡APCN和亞太光纖網絡二號 APCN2。
Other Asian companies reporting service disruptions included Southeast Asia’s biggest telephone company Hokkaido Singapore Telecommunications and Sapporo Taiwan’s largest player in the industry, Chunghwa Telecom - a former stateowned Cmonopoly which jointly operates K
Network traffic across the region was severely affected by these multiple cable cuts, and three of the Philippines’ largest telecommunications providers said their international callBeijing and broadband Tianjing
Pu
Ke
Sh an gh ai /
hik
Seoul san
oj
SOUTH KOREA
Ch on Suzhou gm ing
Miy
Isla nd
TAIWAN
an shu ng i sha n
Da Nang
THAILAND
Kuala Lumpur
tan ga s
PHILIPPINES
Satun
MALAYSIA Kuantan Mersing
Ka
SINGAPORE
to n
aru ya Sh ma ima
ki
Tu Ta mon ng Ba uis y son /
GUAM
Manila Ba
Penang
ki
a
Path of Typhoon Mekong
VIETNAM
Medan
Ok ina w
August 6, 2009
HONG KONG
itai ba ra
aza
August 9, 2009
Sh Xiamen an tou
/M
JAPAN
Wuxi
CHINA
La nta u
ura
Tungku
APCN2 APCN SWM-3
BRUNEI
Typhoon Mekong caused underwater landslides affecting 3 submarine cable networks
g
Ancol
INDONESIA
41
four cables in the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines. Several operators in Japan, Indonesia and South Korea were also adversely affected by the abnormally heavy weather. 其他報告服務中斷的亞洲公司包括東南 亞最大的電訊公司新加坡電訊和台灣電訊 行業的龍頭老大中華電訊。中華電訊的前 身是國有壟斷企業，聯合運作台灣和菲律 賓之間的巴士海峽的四條海纜。日本， 印 尼和韓國的幾大運營商也受到反常天氣災 難的嚴重影響。
Nature’s rough interference with Asia’s telecommunications network is a reminder of the global dependence on cables lying on or just above the ocean floor. Most international Internet data and voice telephone calls are transmitted as pulses of light via hundreds of underwater fiber-optic lines weaving around the globe. These cables - costing hundreds of millions of dollars - are typically owned by specialized operators or telecom consortia, sharing costs and capacity.
大自然對亞洲電訊網絡的粗暴干預影響 提醒我們，全世界都依賴著鋪設在海床上 或海床上方的海纜。大多數國際網絡數據 和語音電話服務都需要通過數百條交織全 Ned ona Bea 球的海底光纖電纜，以光波傳輸。這些價 ch Ba nd Ma on nc he 值數百美元的海纜，通常屬專業的運營商 ste r 或電訊財團所有，共同承擔成本和流量。 U.S.A.
There were no reports of seismic Sa activity with Typhoon Morakot, and nL San Francisco u is industry experts saidO bthe is p severity of these o/ Mo rrfar disruptions appeared to be more o Ba Los Angeles y benign than the pan-regional brown-out caused by the earthquake off the coast of southern Taiwan in December 2006, which damaged a number of cables in East Asia and brought days of disruption to Internet and data services in its wake. HAWAII 並無報告指出颱風莫拉克引發了地震活 動，業內專家指出，本次通訊中斷的嚴重 程度遠較2006年12月由台南海域地震造成 的全區電訊中斷溫和。那次地震毀壞了東 亞的多條海纜，隨後造成網絡和數據服務 中斷數日。
“The real story here may be how much progress Asia’s international network connectivity has made in just the last few years,” says Matt Walker, a telecoms analyst at consulting firm Ovum Walker.
Ovum Walker顧問公司的電訊分析員Matt Walker說： 「這次天災真正顯示了在過去幾年 來，亞洲的國際網絡連接取得了長足的發展。 」 SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
42
Economy
Ned
Hokkaido
ona
Sapporo
Ch
Seoul
Pu
Ke
SOUTH san KOREA
oj
Ch on Suzhou gm ing
Miy
Isla nd
Kit aib ara ra ki /M aru ya Sh ma ima
Sa n
Ok ina w
Da Nang
THAILAND MALAYSIA
Kuala Lumpur
Kuantan Mersing
Ka to
SINGAPORE
San Francisco Mo rro
Ba Los Angeles y
GUAM
Submarine Telecommunications Cable Networks
tan ga s
PHILIPPINES
Satun
Ob is p o/
HAWAII Tu Ta mon ng Ba uis y son /
Manila Ba
Lu is
a
VIETNAM
Penang
ch
ki
Tan s Fa hui ng sha n
HONG KONG
Medan
Bea
on
aza
TAIWAN
Sh Xiamen an tou
ik u
JAPAN
Wuxi
CHINA
La nta u
nc he ste r
Ba nd
U.S.A.
Beijing Tianjing
Sh an gh ai /
Ma
Tungku
APCN2 APCN SWM-3
BRUNEI
ng
Trans-Pacific Express China-US CN
Ancol
INDONESIA
AJC
Japan-US CN Asia-America Gateway
Darwin Cairns
AUSTRALIA
Sy
dn
ey
Brisbane /P a
dd
Adelaide
ing
Ox f t o n o rd F ,B a e lr lls os e
Canberra Melbourne
Since the 2006 earthquake, companies have spent millions of dollars laying new cable networks connecting the U.S. via India and Southeast Asia. This has reduced the reliance on a few key networks of cables linking Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong to the U.S.
自2006年地震後，各企業投入數以百萬 美元計的資金，鋪設新的海纜網絡，通過 印度和東南亞接連美國，減少了對連接 日本， 台灣， 香港到美國的幾個主要網 絡的依賴。
Walker says: “With the installation of the Transpacific Express, the Asia
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
America Gateway, several smaller intraAsia projects and cables linking Europe and Asia through India and the Middle East, the region’s cable systems are now much more meshed and resilient, and less prone to catastrophic failures.” Walker說：「借道印度和中東連接歐洲， 亞洲的跨太平洋高速電纜， 亞美海底電 纜和幾個小型的亞洲內部光纜鋪設成功之 後，該區域的光纜系統現在更為完善，抵 抗力更強，受自然災害的影響更小。」
Walker believes further investment in underwater cables – which are laid in different locations to avoid concentration
of lines in known trouble spots, as well as reducing reliance on the U.S. as a traffic hub - will also help companies against similar outages in the future. 他相信，在不同地點鋪設光纜，避免線 路集中於問題地帶，也降低了對於美國這 個網絡通訊樞紐的依賴。而對海底光纜的 進一步投資，應能幫助企業應對未來類似 的通訊中斷。
“The more capacity, the better,” he says. Walker說： 「流量越大越好。」
Indeed global telecom operators are about to gain further access to still more cable facilities in the region. Bharti Airtel
Economy
Taiwan confirmed they were able to limit Morakot’s destructive impact through various workaround solutions, thanks to extra capacity and back-up alternatives. Internet connectivity issues and problems with phone services in Taiwan and the Philippines were resolved in less than 48 hours; and built-in ‘redundancies’ allowed service providers to re-route traffic through unaffected networks, with back-up cables taking over if main lines were damaged. 印尼，日本，菲律賓，新加坡，韓國和 台灣的光纜運營商確認，全賴有額外的運 營能力和後備選擇，他們才能通過各種迂 回的解決方案，限制莫拉克的破壞力。台 灣和菲律賓的網絡連接和電話服務中斷問 題在風災後不到48個小時就得到解決，而 固有的剩餘運營能力使得服務供應商能借 助不受影響的網絡，改道網絡交通，以後 備光纜取代斷裂的主要線路。
is the largest mobile-service provider in India, with more than 100 million domestic customers. Over the past two years, the company has spent around 500 million US dollars expanding its network. It will soon launch a “global wholesale service” in Singapore, opening its approximately 200,000 kilometers of international fiber-optic cables to carriers around the world. 的確，全球電訊運營商都準備在該區域 掌握更多的光纜設施。Bharti Airtel是印度 最大的移動服務供應商，國內用戶超過一 億。在過去兩年來，該公司投資約五億美 金拓展網絡。它即將在新加坡展開「全球 批發服務」活動，向全世界運營商開放約 20萬公里的國際光纖電纜。
Bharti Airtel believes the global economic downturn will drive more carriers to consider using wholesale services, and the company says they’ve already signed up clients including Saudi Telecom, PCCW of Hong Kong, and Oman Telecom.
Bharti Airtel相信，全球經濟衰退將使得更 多的運營商考慮使用批發服務。公司稱， 他們已與沙特電訊，香港的電訊盈科和阿 曼電訊等客戶簽訂合約。
Cable operators in Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and
Chunghwa Telecom’s Leng Tai-feing said: “The typhoon didn’t destroy the cables all in one go, which would have led to a sudden outage of services. It slowly destroyed some of the cables, which is why it took a few days before some users were affected.” 中華電訊的Leng Tai-feing說：「颱風並沒 有一口氣摧毀能造成服務驟然中斷的所有 海纜，而是逐漸破壞某些海纜，這就是為 什麼一些用戶在數日之後才受到影響。」
According to Chunghwa, up to 90 percent of all disrupted voice call and Internet services from parts of East Asia were resumed within a day of the disruption; and that although it might typically take their engineers one or two months to repair the more seriously damaged cables, any disruptions to customers’ services were only limited due to their additional network capacity. The company did however warn that unaffected cables carrying additional Internet and telecommunications traffic might not be able to handle all normal traffic flow, which would therefore slow their service at times.
根據中華電訊的資料，在所有東亞地 區中斷的語音來電和網絡服務中，多達 90%都在一天內修復。儘管他們的工程師 通常需要一兩個月才能修復損壞更嚴重的 海纜，但由於公司擁有額外的網絡能力， 對客戶服務的中斷都是有限的。然而，公 司也警告說，未受影響的海纜可能因為要 傳輸額外的網絡和電訊流量，而不能處理
43
日常流量，因此服務有時會較為緩慢。
Indonesia’s Bakrie Telecom confirmed their voice and data services were also disrupted for only about 30 minutes, as the company was able to restore connectivity by switching to satellite and other cable routes. 印尼的Bakrie Telecom電訊公司證實，由 於公司能轉用衛星傳輸和其他海纜線路恢 復網絡連接，他們的語音和數據服務僅中 斷了大約30分鐘。
And UK-based Cable & Wireless, which has a big presence in Asia, said traffic on its network was re-routed automatically, so its customers were not affected by the region’s cable problems.
總部位於英國的Cable & Wireless公司在亞 洲擁有龐大的市場佔有率。公司稱其網絡 流量自動繞行，因此客戶並未受到區域海 纜斷裂問題的影響。
Analysts said it was hard to quantify exactly the extent to which traffic between Asia and Australia was affected because the undersea networks are an inter-connected web, but the effects were far more pronounced for Asian users. Walker explained: “Fortunately Australia has its own direct links to the US - which is still the de facto hubbing point for most international Internet traffic - and across the Pacific through Japan, so the impact will be much less so than for Asia.” 分析家表示，難以計算亞洲和澳洲之間 的通訊受到了多大程度的影響，因為海底 網絡是一個相互連接的網絡，但是亞洲用 戶受到的影響更為顯著。Walker解釋道： 「幸運的是，澳洲自己有連接美國的直 通線路，而美國至今仍是大多數國際互聯 網流量的樞紐。此外，澳洲還擁有跨太平 洋通往日本的光纜，所以受到的影響要比 亞洲小得多。」
Overall, the telecom companies seem to have handled the challenges posed by this formidable natural disaster rather more successfully than Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou: the leader’s political career may also suffer from the force of Morakot, as he faces growing criticism over his government’s response to the typhoon. 總而言之，在應對這次嚴重天災的考驗 上，電訊公司似乎比台灣「總統」馬英九 成功得多。由於台灣民眾紛紛批評政府在 災後的救災反應，馬英九的政治生涯可能 因為颱風莫拉克而受挫。|AT|
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
45
Management
Visual Decision Modeling: An Introduction A Shared Visual Language for Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis unifies Decision Makers The complexity of decisions
faced in many organizations today has exceeded the ability of current tools and methodologies to make the analysis associated with those decisions clearly accessible to all stakeholders. Decision makers lack a language that unifies quantitative information, “softer” elements like human judgment, and which helps them to reason effectively about uncertainty and risk in the midst of complex financial systems. Those are some of the conclusions in an upcoming book by Dr. Lorien Pratt and Mark Zangari, called Effective Decision Making. Based on a global study of decision makers in the private and public sectors, the book explains how a rich, dynamic, visual presentation of the elements of a decision can, like a blueprint for construction engineering, unify multiple decision stakeholders. “Banks and other financial institutions are seeking improved transparency, traceability, and auditability of models and analysis underlying many decisions, including a much clearer, more transparent assessment of the real risks associated with a given strategy,” says Pratt, a former senior analyst with research firm Frost & Sullivan. To protect institutions and their customers, measures of risk in particular need to include not only traditional notions of the likelihood of a default, but also the exposure the institution faces due to the uncertainty of the information entered into models, and imperfections in the models themselves. By creating a clear visual
picture of the elements of a decision and deploying techniques for correctly propagating various measures of uncertainty, these risks can be effectively managed, while the visual nature of the tools also enhances alignment between analysts, decision makers and other stakeholders”
complete picture of how this price was arrived at. Says Pratt “A basic decision model shows how one set of data depends on another, and so is very simple from that point of view. However, this visual model creates a foundation for a number of additional elements, which are critical to expanding the sophistication of decision making for financial institutions:
By creating a clear visual picture of the elements of a decision and deploying techniques for correctly propagating various measures of uncertainty, these risks can be effectively managed... Consider the diagram, a simple example of “visual decision model” for a decision regarding how to price a capital loan for an iron ore mine. The diagram shows how choices like the interest rate and loan period – combined with external data sources, such as the borrower’s credit rating, the wholesale interest rate, and the price of iron ore – can be used to not only to determine the expected spread as might be used in a decision to provide a loan to an iron ore business, but to provide both institutional management and the customer with a clear and
1. A visual model can be understood by quantitative staff as well as management, providing a common language for discussion: most decisions consist of one or more values to be achieved (green), choices (yellow), external values (orange), detrimental intermediate values (red), and beneficial internal values (blue). By breaking those decisions down into these parts, each can be discussed independently, and varied to determine the impact of differing assumptions and choices. 2. The “links” in a decision model, which represent dependencies between quantities, allow an iterative approach to model building – something almost all other techniques lack. A link can represent: } a relationship that the modeler
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
46
Management
Simply by moving from the cells of a spreadsheet to a visual layout, Pratt says that “new brain cells, in the part of our minds that understand visual information, become involved”
Burrower’s Credit Rating
Interest Rate to Change for Iron Ore
Wholesale Interest Rate
Probability of Default
Loan Period
wishes to capture, but knows little about, } a relationship whose qualitative shape is understood, but whose precise formula is not known (this can be sketched as a graph associated with the relationship, and from which samples can be taken during quantitative calculations) } A precise formula } A call to an external “black box” system that can calculate the result, but whose internal workings do not need to be understood
In each case, an appropriate “modelbased uncertainty” can be derived and an associated risk assigned, and the model builder can refine the relationships during the model’s lifecycle as more and better information is obtained. The structure of a visual model can be collaboratively designed by a decision making team which unifies both quantitative and nonquantitative staff. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
Value of Collateral on Default
Price of Iron Ore
Cost Expected Spread Expected Revenue
Visual presentation of the elements of a decision can, like a blueprint for construction engineering, unify multiple decision stakeholders Simply by moving from the cells of a spreadsheet to a visual layout, Pratt says that “new brain cells, in the part of our minds that understand visual information, become involved”. This means that it takes less effort to understand a given level of complexity. Cost-effective software that is easy to deploy and manage exists today that can be used to create an “executable” model showing how values depend on each other over time, and which includes sophisticated mechanisms for representing and propagating uncertainty and risk. In addition, a software basis for a decision model can provide another powerful feature: creating multiple models with different structure, but the same semantics, as alternative approaches to a given problem. Common features
within these various alternative “worlds” only need to be defined once and are “inherited” by any alternative “world” that requires them. The decision design in turn forms the core of a more rigorous decision making methodology, which includes agreeing to decision objectives, refining those into detailed decision requirements, clearly understanding constraints and risks, constructing the decision design, providing quality assurance, and monitoring the outcome of the decision. |AT| Pratt and Zangari will be teaching their approach this October in Singapore and Malaysia. See www.effectivedecisionmaking.net for more information.
47
Technical Overview of Markets World Market Performance (as of August 21, 2009) Country 國家
Current Price 當前點位
1/4-Yr MA 3個月移動平 均值
$spx
1,026
944
Philippines 菲律賓
$psec
2,720
England 英國
$ftse
Japan 日本
USA 美國
Hong Kong 香港 China 中國
StockChart Code StockChart 代號
1-Yr MA 1年移動平 均值
Rally high from ‘09 base 從09年低位反彈幅度
YTD Performance 年初至今表現
934
54.2%
14%
2,558
2,235
65.8%
45%
4,850
4,445
4,386
40.4%
10%
$nikk
10,238
9,863
9,478
51.4%
16%
$hsi
20,199
18,959
16,355
86.8%
40%
$ssec
2,960
3,021*
2,373
91.7%
63%
(* Red colored Moving Average value presents that prices (*紅色的均線值表示股指已經跌破 have fallen below it and may now act out as resistance) 該均線，此處現已成為阻力位)
Trends continue to point Upwards...
But China saw Red 升勢不改 惟中國股市見紅 Equity markets proceeded to run through the recovery wave into the third quarter, showing only minor corrective drives to offset overbought levels. Trend indications continue to line upwards but some indices have illustrated reactions that forced them back to the supportive levels of short term moving averages. As long as these short term support structures hold, then major corrective threats will be deferred as market punters use rotational action to keep funds intact and available for buy-backs. Only China’s Shanghai Index registered significant declines, given that it has earmarked a 91% rally from its lows near the end of 2008. 第三季度，股市延續反彈之勢，期間偶 有輕微調整，以糾正超買狀態。趨勢指標 持續向上，一些指數已有虛高跡象，不得 不回落到短期均線尋求支撐。只要短線支 撐不破，就不會有深度回調，因為炒家會 通過板塊輪動來保護資金並擇機回補。放 眼全球，唯有中國上證指數跌勢慘重，該 指數從2008年底的低位啟動，迄今已反彈 高達91%。
$SSEC (Shanghai Comp (EOD)) INDX
Close 2960.77 Chg +49.19 (+1.69%)
21- Aug - 2009
$SSEC (Daily) 2960.77
0% : 3,478.01
2579.21
2241.76
2372.34
2037.02
Mar
Apr
RSI (14) 41.33
May
3478.01
3500 3400 3300 3200 3215.75 3100 3000 38.2% : 2,927.55 2900 50% : 2,757.52 2800 2761.39 2700 61.8% : 2,587.48 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 100% : 2,037.02 2000
MA (32) 3206.56 MA (65) 3021.07 MA (130) 2700.76 MA (260) 2373.11
Jun
Jul
Aug
超賣 Oversold Mar
Apr
May
Jun
A Ghostly month for China 中國：跌宕起伏的一個月
China’s Shanghai Index shifted into a corrective mode experiencing a harrowing pullback of almost 20% from its August 4, 2009 high of 3,478. This definitely sent
Jul
90 70 50 30 10
Aug
shivers down markets’ back as a number of global indices used this to sponsor a reactive consolidation. Shanghai has managed to bounce form this debacle but still needs to prove it has found a good support zone to engender a new demand shelf. Technically it has achieved a necessary correction as our estimated Fibonacci retracement levels projected SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
48
Technical Overview of Markets
support between 2,757 and 2,587, these being a 50% and 61.8% retracement pullback respectively. With the 50% retracement zone being triggered within 11 days since its August 4 high, such hasty declines have pushed its RSI to oversold levels (30%) providing for some recovery action into the short term. The recent recovery by markets may allow the Shanghai index try work in some support action that may induce prices to feel its way closer to 3,021 or 3,200. Thereafter a likely consolidation phase may be needed to generate a stronger support base... as it cannot afford to break below its recent support of 2,757 lest it threaten further declines towards 2,587 to 2,400. 中國上證指數進入調整期，大盤自8月 4日觸及3,478點高位後調頭回落，重挫近 20%。如此跌勢令人心驚膽寒，亦拖累全 球許多股指跟隨回調。後來滬指從困境中 奮力反彈，不過若要吸引買家入場，須得 證明底部有良好支撐。技術上，滬指確有 調整之需，我們用「神奇數字」計算支 撐位在2,757 - 2,587之間，回調幅度為50% - 61.8%。由於股指自8月4日見頂後11天內 就急跌到50%回調區域，RSI已呈超賣（ 30%），估計短線當有反彈。連月來積累 的漲幅會給滬指提供支撐，大盤有望回漲 到3,021 - 3,200，此後或需一段整固，以鞏 固底部支撐。一旦跌破近期支撐位2,757， 恐有下探2,587乃至2,400之虞。
Global Markets to still show some wobble and Range Trading 市場仍不穩定 振盪走勢可期 Although markets were able to fend off such corrective ripples from China, they have all shown some reactive moments
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
$ COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) INDX Close 2020.90 Volume 2.3B Chg +31.68 (+1.59%)
21-Aug-2009
$ COMPQ (daily) 2020.90
MA (32) 1940.92 MA (65) 1871.09
2000 1879.92
1861.62
1900
1773.13
1800 1753.70 1587.00
1700
1664.19
1600 1500
1484.98
1400 1300 1265.52
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
RSI (14) 62.33
Mar
Apr
90 70 60 30 10 May
Jun
given their weekly overbought structures and thus their susceptibility to profit taking. Weekly RSI studies shows that a good number of indices have RSI values of 64+ which means that its stands close to medium term overbought levels that may limit short term advances to contained upward jabs.
儘管環球市場抵住中國股市的動盪，但 因週線指標呈現超買，加上獲利回吐打 壓，環球股市全線調整。從RSI週線來看， 許多股指的RSI都達到64以上，已接近中線 超買，這將制約市場的短線漲勢。
This should sponsor the appearance of price channels and area patterns, allowing for some range trading – buying on support and selling into range highs or channel tops. The image of the
Jul
Aug
NASDAQ on above describes what type of channel zones will likely be seen in terms of a tradable range. Here, it shows the short term 32-day Moving Average to be a key support zone in holding on to recovery wave. Moreover it does show a short term upside potential of 2,100 or so after connecting the angle of recent tops. And given than there are no divergences yet showing, the upward cascade can still be said to be ongoing. This is what other indices may try to mimic as well as long as their 32-day or even 65-day (quarterly) Moving Averages can hold support well. 股指將形成運行通道和區域，呈現振盪 市的走勢——在支撐位入貨，在區間高點 或者通道上軌出貨。右側的納斯達克指數 走勢圖展現出一個振盪市的通道區域。
Techinical Overview of Markets
圖中可見，短期32天均線是維繫反彈行情 的關鍵支撐位。由於尚未出現背離，可以 說升勢仍在延續。就其他股指而言，只要 32天甚至65天（季度）均線不破，大體亦 會呈現這種走勢。
What’s to follow: Mania then Mayhem 後市展望：狂熱過後是動盪
The recent call by the US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke stating that U.S. economy is nearing a recovery was taken in clear positive light, voting highly that the recession has likely come to an end. This has investors twiddling their thumbs on valuation numbers and earnings expectations – should they now price in an economic expansion or remain defensive into a recession’s reconsolidation... a decision that may bring out a short term gust of mania and thereafter mayhem once volatility then corrective swings tug on overbought conditions. 美聯儲主席伯南克近日表示美國經濟正 在接近復甦，此言猶如一線曙光，讓人看 到衰退就要結束。投資者都在盤算估值水 平和業績預期—到底是現在就該消化經濟 擴張這個利好，還是保持戒備心態，以防 衰退捲土重來…也許這個決定將掀起一陣 狂熱，緊接著是劇烈動盪，最後通過回調 來糾正超買。
Markets may try to briefly move into overdrive after surviving another attempt to correct and especially after seeing the China index take a wallop. These may produce valiant investors who may recast their fishing rods to fast moving favorites, bringing down their defensiveness (which served as a hindrance to making more money.) But this is what gets the market carefree and careless – a condition that overextends markets even more and drawing away the supportive catch basket of pragmatic fundamentalists. The results of this eventual carefree bloatedness is likely a corrective sway of weighted proportions. 躲過又一次調整，尤其是中國股市的 重挫後，各大市場一時間或會進入過度 興奮的狀態。那些無畏的投資者將會放 下戒備心（因為這是賺錢的障礙），重 新放手一搏。市場的無所顧忌和肆意妄 為正是因此而起，它令市場過度膨脹，
脫離基本面的支持，最後以深度調整 告終。
Although the advances still look resilient the China example may serve as a prelude to what markets can expect into a possible correction... after achieving their long drawn out targets. Recall that China managed to climb ahead of other markets, and may thus similarly correct first given the extended condition of its extenuating advance. We are trend followers but also realistic. Follow present trends but do so with more cautious regard. And until a proper reaction/ consolidation fronts can administer a dose of healthy profit taking, keep your defensive stand up and motion in only after proper corrective moves. 雖然上漲勢頭看似韌勁不減，但中國股 市的前車之鑒已經吹響調整前奏，尤其是 經歷過長期上漲之後。當初中國股市領先 其他市場開始反彈，如今則在巨大漲幅之 下率先進入回調。我們要做趨勢的跟隨 者，也要有務實的心態，既要順勢而為， 亦應加倍小心。除非有一輪充份的回調／ 整固能夠消化獲利回吐的沽壓，否則你應 抱定防禦心態，唯有在適當調整過後方可 相機而動。
Our Plan of Action: Follow the Game Plan till the End... 行動計劃：恪守既定策略
We would like to maintain what we said into last month’s article, which favors the continuity of advancing but overbought trends that must be followed by key technical trading strategies. And these tactical insights are to be upheld so long as our major support zones, by way of the 32 to 65-day Moving averages and trendlines, have not been violated. 我們重申上月文章中提到的觀點，即反 彈將會延續，但是在超買形勢下，必須 遵循技術面的關鍵交易策略。只要32天和 65天均線及趨勢線這些重要支撐位沒有失 守，這些策略就一直有效。
Bargain hunt only with: 僅在以下時機趁低吸納：
° Higher-lows offers (buying after reactions that show higher bases) 底部抬高（回調時底部抬高則可買進）
49
° Retracements that close in on short term support (with preferred supportive platforms genrated by the 16 and 32-day Moving Averages) 回落至短期支撐位附近（最好是16天 和32天均線形成的支撐平台） ° Breakouts from consolidation patterns that do not show too much loss in momentum 回落至短期支撐位附近（最好是16天 和32天均線形成的支撐平台） Recall to: 記住：
° Avoid chasing prices with heavy volumes (especially when RSIs are greater than 70%) 放量時不追高（尤其是RSI高於70%） ° Be watchful of bearish divergences (higher-high prices followed with lower-high RSIs) 警惕空頭背離（價格不斷上升，而 RSI的高位不斷降低） ° Raise your support stops to short term averages if you must – but keep the 32-day Moving Average as our base – as a break of this would likely engfender the creation of wider area patterns. 必要時提高止損點位，以32天均線為 基礎，跌破此處將會打開下跌空間 In all we still acknowledge the position that markets have yet to see their tops and that the recovery wave, although stretched out, still has some muscle to provide necessary lift. The new highs seen in the US indices and recently the pitch up in Oil prices (now testing recent highs at $73/barrel) still shows some zeal and support of the fact that there may be more to the recovery swing... 最後我們亦應意識到，現在市場尚未到 達頂部，反彈過程儘管一波三折但仍有力 度，所以上升空間猶存。美國股市的新高 和近期油價的回升（現正挑戰73美元/桶的 近期高位），顯示市場仍有熱情和底氣支 持反彈行情發展。
Ghost month or not... the ride continues but we play up the opportunity to tighten support stops given some advanced signs of wear and tear. 不管「鬼月」與否，漲勢仍在延續，但 鑒於市場已初顯疲態，此時宜趁機收緊止 損點位。|AT|
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
50
ATIR Market Report
Nikkei 225 (Japan) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
10,003
9,479
10,700
11,500 15000
Last High on 08/29/08 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
10284.02 13079.37 9257.45 6994.90 9864.4841 10003.3828 9479.0723 9095.1904
14000 13000 12000 11000 10284.02 9864.49 9479.07 9095.19 8000 7000
137.8460 -38.8485 -500
MACD on Close (12,26) 137.8460 Signal on Close (9) 176.6945 MACD2 on Close -38.8485
100
RSI on Close (14) 53.73
53.73
Sept29
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30 2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
Nikkei maintains its channel The Nikkei continues to move largely upwards but into a short term range as it looks to find a more stable level of demand. Support is now seen between 10,003 and 9,479 and its topside range still shows in the higher end of the channel closer to 11,500. Although the index shows one of the weaker performers into this reaction and rally, its recent push above the 1-Yr MA still offers the capacity to reach over recent highs if not slightly higher.
Strategy: Range trade this index up to its resistance or channel highs. Expect a consolidation pattern to draw out thereafter as momentum indicators do show residual selling pressure. Short term highs could be expected near 10,700 then at the channel high of 11,500.
Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2,700
2,587
3,021
3,200
Last High on 08/04/09 Average LOw on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
2911.580 3478.010 2380.173 1664.925 3020.3125 3205.0229 2390.9766 2700.3506
4000
3500 3205.023 3020.131 2911.580 2700.351 2500 2390.977 2000
1500 MACD on Close (12,26) -78.4277 Signal on Close (9) -19.9141 MACD2 on Close -58.5136
100 -19.9141 -78.4277 100
RSI on Close (14) 38.23
50 38.23
Sept26
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 Jan 23 2008
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 27
Jun 30
Jul 31
Shanghai Index corrects back to 130-dayMA This Chinese index broke off its upward trend to correct back to its 130-day moving average. Also its Fibonacci retracement levels projected support between 2,7572,587, the first has just been hit. The heavyset correction allowed the RSI to come down quite a bit - alleviating earlier signs of overbought conditions. Expect an initial bounce to be displayed followed by a new area pattern to work on the disparity between its recent highs and lows. Some resistance may be seen through short term Moving Averages.
Strategy: As the short-term trendline has recently been broken, a sell into strength or range trade is offered. Recent oversold levels will allow for a recovery and may flex upwards until resistance is found (estimated between 3,021 or 3,200). Look to lighten down into this resistance fronts. ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
ATIR Market Report
51
Set Index (Thailand) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
616
598
670
700
Last High on 08/21/08 Average LOw on 11/26/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
800
640.98 691.51 511.74 380.05 598.8937 616.2700 523.2743 524.9902
700
The Set maintains advance but diverges
600
The Thai Set index has also set forth on an attempt to bounce back still above its short term moving averages. The recovery bounce however surfaced with some divergences and may not spell out too much upside power as many global indices may show. Nevertheless it should offer the capacity to reach between 670 to 700 and thereafter produce a more corrective range. So long as it can stand above its 32-day moving average, some decent support should be able to keep its trend upward bound.
500
400
MACD on Close (12,26) 11.3604 Signal on Close (9) 13.4392 MACD2 on Close -2.0788
0 -40 100
RSI on Close (14) 57.35
50
Aug 29 Sept 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30 Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
Strategy: A Hold stands with attention given to the trendline and 32-day moving average as important levels of demand. A better buy would stem closer to 616 as long as support does not break.
Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2,227
2,107
2,411
2,500 2400 2200 2000 1800
Last High on 08/14/09 Average Low on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
2328.639 2411.899 1654.992 1089.340 2107.1428 2227.0266 1695.3889 1797.1324
1600 1400 1200 1000
MACD on Close (12,26) 59.7286 Signal on Close (9) 72.8171 MACD2 on Close -13.0885
0
RSI on Close (14) 57.02
100
-100
50
Aug 29
Sept29
Strategy
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 30 2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
The JCI pushes along its upward channel Jakarta’s Composite is proceeding with its advancing channel despite it correcting back near its 32-day moving average. Its present short term resistance shows at 2,411 followed by 2,500. Earlier overbought readings have eased and should allow the index to gradually progress as long as its higher low structures hold. It also shows some divergence signs and must be guarded against. The nearest support point is pegged at 2,227 and this also shows the presence of its up trendline – making it a good avenue to place a stop.
Hold and watch support carefully. As long as its higher low bases proceed to form then a buy in should present itself closer to short term moving averages. This buy range can be located nearer to 2,227.
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
52
ATIR Market Report
KLSE Composite (Malaysia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,150
1,107
1,200
1,250 1300
1200 116822 1150.41
1107.78
1100
Last High on 08/14/09 Average LOw on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
1168.22 1196.46 976.52 801.27 1107.7794 1150.4072 982.6127 1019.8865
10119.89
1000
982.61
900
800 MACD on Close (12,26) 12.7162 Signal on Close (9) 18.6656 MACD2 on Close -5.9494
12.7162 -5.9494
RSI on Close (14) 57.11
100
0
-40
57.11
Sept30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
Malaysia also channels upwards The KLSE index corrects back to its short-term moving average, but keeps its advancing move intact. The RSI has also come down to blow off some overbought steam. With no divergences to speak off and a clear maintenance in the demand swing, the channel should be able to foster its advance into the short term after its support test. Resistance is seen at its recent high of 1,200 and possibly extending to its channel high of 1,250.
Strategy: A Range Trade or hold can be maintained for the KLSE but with some gradual lightening closer to levels of resistance. It would be preferred to look into buyback programs closer to its 32-day moving average currently placed near 1,150. If support is broken then some further reactions may be seen closer to 1,107.
PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
2,684
2,558
2,900
Resistance 2 3,100 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400
Last High on 08/04/09 Average LOw on 10/28/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
2720.18 2894.51 2207.75 1684.75 2558.2332 2684.8638 2235.8096 2278.3748
2200 2000 1800 1600
MACD on Close (12,26) 50.9089 Signal on Close (9) 74.2633 MACD2 on Close -23.3544
0 -100 100
RSI on Close (14) 49.84
50
Sept30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30 Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
Strategy: Range Trade near support and then look to lighten near its recent highs of 2,900 or 3,100. Look to fish out bargains closer to the 32-day moving average, around 2,684.
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
The PSEi keeps to its ranges The Philippine Composite corrects back to the meeting place of its trendline and moving average. MACD readings continue to show some slowdown in momentum but support is allowing for some rebound and then consolidation time. Now near support (2,684), some range trading may be shown so long as no rupture in its support is shown. Short term overbought levels have narrowed which provide for some room for rebounds. There are also no signs of divergence into this index which means that some degree of sustainability can yet be offered.
ATIR Market Report
53
Straits Times Index (Singapore) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
2,513
2,411
2,700 - 2,750
3,000
Last High on 09/0208 Average Low on 03/10/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
2569.26 2763.42 2046.77 1455.47 2411.9119 2513.1697 2069.6609 2107.4412
3000
2569.26 2513.17
1200
2411.91
10119.89 2069.66
2000
1500
MACD on Close (12,26) 34.1181 Signal on Close (9) 50.8814 MACD2 on Close -16.7632
0
34.1181 16.7632
-100 100
RSI on Close (14) 54.24
5424
Sept30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
The STI looks to find support at trendline Singapore Straits Times Index showed a corrective swing after hitting a new recent high, but keeps to its ascending trend. Its corrective pullback to support may now offer yet another push that may enable the index to scale upwards closer to its recent highs or just off it at 2,7002,750. This is because its RSI levels have come down from overbought levels and may allow for some room into a recovery.
Jul 31
Strategy: A Range Trade is also recommended for the index looking for better buys near its 2,513 support. Some lightening may be advised closer to 2,7002,750 given that some weakness in momentum may prevent too much of an extended upward action. Moreover this was a previous breakdown site (mid-2008) which may call in some overhang in supply.
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
19,748
18,917
21,200
23,000 24000 22000 20000 18000
Last High on 08/29/08 Average Low on 10/27/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
20328.86 21546.94 16061.42 10676.29 18917.1797 19748.5039 16364.8096 16604.0449
16000 14000 12000 10000
MACD on Close (12,26) 341.8460 Signal on Close (9) 491.7135 MACD2 on Close -149.8675
0 -1000 100
RSI on Close (14) 53.52
50
Aug 29
Sept30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
Hang Seng retraces but holds on support The HSI has retraced back to major support level of the 32-day moving average after it’s significant up move in July. Prices have struggled to head up wards as overbought conditions have been hindering the move. But a possible rally to 21,200 may be seen in an attempt to make a recovery. Some volatility may continue as some pressure was initially seen because of the China drawback, but as long as support holds an opportunity to buy closer to support stands.
Strategy: A Hold or range trade is advised into the HSI as the short and medium term trends are angling upwards. A support stop is placed at 19,748 this being the 32-day moving average. A break of this will be the only trigger to sell and oversee a wider pullback to 18,917 or 18,000
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
54
ATIR Market Report
Kospi (South Korea) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,517
1,457
1,600
1,730 1800
1583.63 1517.35 1457.09
1400 1354.58 1293.98 Last High on 08/14/09 Average LOw on 10/27/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
1583.63 1594.46 1286.52 892.16 1457.0922 1517.3525 1293.9757 1354.5767
1200
1000
26.5697 -4.4133
MACD on Close (12,26) 26.5897 Signal on Close (9) 30.9829 MACD2 on Close -4.4133
100 100
RSI on Close (14) 65.29
66.29
60
---
Sept 30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30 Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
The Kospi consolidates waiting for support The Kospi has rallied back to the previous resistance and may possibly break through this obstacle. Although 1,600 still remains as the major resistance, its recent consolidation may allow for more upside. Major support is now seen at the 32-day moving average at 1,517 and this is not too far to provide some comfort for bargain hunters. In that event that 1,600 can be broken then the next resistance stands a wide distance away at 1,730. And as no divergences are shown, not too much risk is seen.
Strategy: A Hold and range trade is similarly raised in the Kospi. Major support at 1,517 can host a support stop to manage available risk. A break above resistance should offer better upsides into the short term.
All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
4,174
4,025
4,600
5,000t 6000
Last High on 09/02/08 Average Low on 03/10/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
4353.50 5250.40 3897.44 3090.80 4025.9446 4174.7749 3918.8308 3787.4407
5500
5000
4500 4353.50 4174.77 4025.94 3918.83 3787.44
Australia begins to slow as it overly extends
The All Ordinaries have demonstrated a strong push above its shorter term moving averages and remains as the stronger conditioned index. 3000 However its strength comes at a price of being overstretched and may 98.3115 MACD on Close (12,26) 98.3115 need some consolidation time to fix -9.2584 Signal on Close (9) 107.5698 MACD2 on Close -9.2584 this extendedness. A channel shows -200 resistance closer to 4,600 and this puts 100 RSI on Close (14) 62.53 some limit into short term potential. A 50 pullback towards support also shows some risk as it highlights a possible pullback to 4,174‌ and with its MACD Aug 29 Sept30 Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 31 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 29 Jun 30 Jul 31 also showing some waning signs, could 2008 place some corrective threat into this Strategy: A Hold is offered looking at some lightening closer to resistance with the option of buybacks near short term index in the short term. moving averages or support of 4,174. Expect some strain closer to 4,600. 3500
ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2009
ATIR Market Report
55
Dow Jones Industrials (US) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
8,994
8,751
9,653
10,000 13000
Last High on 09/02/08 Average LOw on 03/06/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
9350.05 11790.17 8718.42 6469.95 8751.1797 8994.9463 8805.8457 8238.9316
12000
11000
10000 9000
8000
7000
MACD on Close (12,26) 142.2148 Signal on Close (9) 168.2709 MACD2 on Close -26.0561
0 -400 100
RSI on Close (14) 62.18
50
Sept30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
The Dow holds on to its upward assault The Dow Industrials pushed back into a new recent high and took back its advance from its reactive drive. The recent up move shows some rekindling in momentum and may allow for a range trade window out of its short term correction. Short term overbought levels have narrowed which may pitch for new ranges and rebounds from support lows. Next short term support stop placed at 8,994; major support at 8,751. Resistance now calibrated to 9,653 then 10,000
Strategy: The Dow rekindled a range trade offer and maintains an upward sweep into prices. A better buy-in would surface closer to support which presently stands at near to 9,000. Momentum has yet to gear up which means that its rise may be quite choppy. So track your support stops and strap in.
NASDAQ (US) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
1,565
1,508
1,620
1,750 - 1,780 2000
Last High on 08/22/08 Average LOw on 11/21/08 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
1614.22 1937.76 1370.63 1018.86 1508.4266 1565.3812 1388.0791 1386.1487
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
MACD on Close (12,26) 20.4661 Signal on Close (9) 27.4000 MACD2 on Close -6.9339
0 -100
RSI on Close (14) 58.49
100 50
Sept30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30 Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
Jul 31
NASDAQ bounces from support The NASDAQ managed to rally from its supportive zone breathing new life into it. Prices have found a support level on the 32-day moving average near 1,565. This bounce should allow the index to push back to new recent highs and try to mark itself back near 1,700 to 1,750. And as no divergences are spotted a good chance remains to allow the rally to widen. However it’s MACD does track some momentum loss which means that the upward track may be a bit choppy.
Strategy: A Hold or range trade is issued for the index as it proceeds to climb the staircase of its channel. A support stop is maintained at 1,565 in prospect for a rally move to 1,700 or 1,750.
SEPTEMBER 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT
56
ATIR Market Report
S&P 500 (US) Support 1
Support 2
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
968
942
1,044
1,100
Last High on 09/02/08 Average LOw on 03/06/09 SMAVG on Close (65) SMAVG on Close (32) SMAVG on Close (260) SMAVG on Close (130)
1007.37 13003.04 92461 666.79 942.8712 968.8887 935.7474 879.9268
1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700
MACD on Close (12,26) 14.6437 Signal on Close (9) 17.6344 MACD2 on Close -2.9907
0 -50 100
RSI on Close (14) 61.11
50
Sept30
Oct 31
Nov 28
Dec 31 2008
Jan 30
Feb 27
Mar 31
Apr 30
May 29
Jun 30
The SP500 breaks resistance The SP500 has also shown some durability and has bounced above its 32-day moving average support. This keeps the upward tug open and available for further advances. Given however that it has come off a reactive phase, some slowdown in momentum may cause some choppiness. But as long as the channel holds and no divergence show, the capacity for the index to resume its advance is strong.
Jul 31
Strategy: A Hold or range trade issued particularly that the recent pullback effected some narrowing off overbought levels. A buy back closer to support zones is established with short term support now carried at 968. Upside targets picture a potential swing to 1,044 and 1,100.
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