Alan H Lockwood, MD Emeritus Professor of Neurology University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY Senior Scientist Physicians for Social Responsibility
Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. World Health Organization 1948
Air Pollution and Leading Causes of Death in Americans Heart Disease – leading cause in US - 617,527 in 2008 Myocardial Infarct Congestive Heart Failure Fatal Arrhythmia Malignant neoplasms – Second leading cause in US, 566,137 deaths in 2008 Source: CDC, 2011
Respiratory disease – third leading cause in US – 141,075 in 2008 Asthma (esp. kids) Emphysema Bronchitis Cancer Stroke – Fourth leading cause in US, 133,750 deaths in 2008
Energy for Generating Electricity
Source: NY Times, 9/14/14, US Energy Information Administration
Coal Plants and Mines, Alberta 26.5 million tonnes burned annually
Source: A Costly Diagnosis, Subsidizing Coal Plants With Alberta’s Health, March, 2013
Asthma Symptom-Days, Coal Plants, Alberta Presumes retirement of some plants, beginning 2019
Source: Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, quoted in A Costly Diagnosis
Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) from Coal Combustion Oxides of sulfur Oxides of nitrogen Particulates Arsenic Beryllium Cadmium Chromium
Mercury Nickel HCl HF Acreolin Dioxins Formaldehyde Uranium and Thorium
Source: EPA Report to Congress, publication 453/R-98-004a
Satellite-Derived PM2.5 Concentration 2001-2006
Source: van Donkelaar et al., EHP 2010;118:847
Three Year PM2.5 Averages, 2009-2011
Source: Canadian Council of Ministers for the Environment, Progress Report
Source: Lockwood, The Silent Epidemic: Coal and the Hidden Threat to Health, 2012
Source: US EPA
Tropospheric Ozone Formation, 101
Tropospheric Ozone Formation, 102
Methane Sources, U.S. Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2013
Changes in Lung Function Inhaling O3 Funded by API 80 ppb
120 ppb
Source: Adams, Inhalation Toxicology 2002;14:745-764
Changes in Lung Function Inhaling O3 Funded by API
120 ppb
80 ppb
Source: Adams, Inhalation Toxicology 2002;14:745-764
% Change FEV1.0, Inhaling 60 ppb O3 Funded by US EPA
Source: Kim, et al., Am J Crit Care Resp Med 2011;183:1215-1221
% Change PMN, Inhaling 60 ppb O3 Funded by US EPA
Source: Kim, et al., Am J Crit Care Resp Med 2011;183:1215-1221
Tropospheric Ozone Formation, 102
Isoprene • Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) • Total emissions around 440 to 660 Terragrams carbon per year. (around 440 to 660 million tonnes)
Source: Guenther, et al Atmos Chem Phys 2006;6:381-3210
Isoprene Emissions by Plant Function Type Source: Guenther, et al Atmos Chem Phys 2006 6:381-3210
Alaska and Yukon Territory on August 22, 2004.
NASA image courtesy MODIS Rapid Response Team http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ContributionPollution/
Modeled concentrations of carbon-containing aerosols, August, 2004. Satellite observations from NASA’s Terra satellite. Fire detections came from the MODIS sensor, short for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ContributionPollution/
CO From Forest Fires, 2004 vs 2005 Fires released about 30 terragrams (66 billion Pounds), of ozone, and increased Ground Level Ozone. 25% In Northern Hemisphere, and 10% in Europe
Source: NASA Terra Satellite, www.eos.ucar.edu/mopitt/ NCAR MOPITT Team
Mean Ozone, 9 am to 4 pm, July through September
Tong et al. 2007 Atmospheric Environment 41:8772
ppb
Simulated 8-hr Max Ozone Concentration Year 2000 and Years 2050 – 2000 climate
Source: Wu, et al., J Geophysical Research 2008;113:D06302
ppb
Effects of Emission Reductions (c) and Emissions and Climate Change (d)
Source: Wu, et al., J Geophysical Research 2008;113:D06302
ppb
Climate Change Penalty: 90th Percentile 8-hr Standard, 2000 and 2050 emissions
Source: Wu, et al., J Geophysical Research 2008;113:D06302
Increases in Ozone, Daily One Hour Maximum: 1990 vs 2050 • On average, daily 1-hour maximum increased by 4.8 ppb • Largest increase was 9.6 ppb • Number of days exceeding current US 8-hr standard (75 ppb) increased 68% • Daily mortality projected to increase by 0.11% - 0,27% • Did not explore changes in anthropogenic emissions Source: Bell et al., Climatic Change 2007;82:61-76
Four Degree C Temperature Increase Yields 14 ppb Increase in Ozone • Largest increases in • Edmonton Windsor-Quebec • Winnipeg Corridor • Fort McMurray, Alberta • Montreal • Toronto • Calgary Source: Human Health in a Changing Climate: Health Canada, 2008
Three Year Ozone Averages, 2009-2011
Source: Canadian Council of Ministers for the Environment, Progress Report
Three Year Ozone Averages, 2009-2011
Source: Canadian Council of Ministers for the Environment, Progress Report
Costs versus Benefits, Clean Air Act
Source: US EPA
Thanks!
Lockwood home, Buffalo, NY,
4,400 Watt PV Array
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