Analyzing our summer: A conversation with Arizona’s State Climatologist

Erinanne Saffell’s first memory consists of watching her family place sandbags around her family house in Scottsdale to prevent flooding from Tropical Storm Norma in 1970. Saffell, who would have been around two years old at the time, now serves as a Senior Global Futures Scientist and teaching associate professor in the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning. As the state climatologist and director of the Arizona State Climate Office, Saffell provides context about the climate of the state that shaped her first memory.

Saffell’s office actively works to increase climate literacy across the state through research, outreach and education. She was appointed as the Arizona state climatologist in 2021 and confirmed by the Arizona Senate in 2022. A three-time graduate of Arizona State University for her bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees, it is only natural that she would apply her expertise to teach at ASU while also working as the state climatologist.

“Every experience I’ve had has prepared me, in some way, for my role in serving the state,” Saffell said.

For this edition of Futurecast, Saffell discusses Arizona’s current summer season, heat solutions and her role as the state climatologist.

Question: This summer’s record heat (at least here in Arizona) gave us our first sense of what life at +2 degrees Celsius would be like. Is this the new normal?

Answer: A climatologist identifies weather patterns and trends, but not every location across the state has the same patterns. Statewide temperatures have increased about 2.5°F since 1895, but zooming into Phoenix, the number of 110°F or higher days has increased five times since 1895, with an average of 27 days each year of 110°F or higher. In 2020, Phoenix almost doubled that average with 53 days of 110°F or higher, and 2023 might even break that number. Identifying different trends helps identify thresholds, which ultimately can help when planning resources needed to improve a community’s resilience.

Q: How much was this summer’s weather, especially in the Southwest with the heat waves and the Northeast with the rains and flooding, due to El Niño?

A: El Niño is an interaction between the atmosphere and ocean and often causes global temperatures to increase. The July heatwave in the Southwest was influenced by several factors, including El Nino.

Q: From a climatologist’s perspective, how might all of these factors (climate change, human impact/interference, naturally occurring weather systems, etc) continue to play on each other as we look to the future if humanity continues on its current path?

A: Attribution researchers found that July temperatures in the Southwest were around 3.5°F warmer due to climate change. The National Hurricane Center just issued a first-ever Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California. What becomes increasingly important is to prepare for these trends.

Q: Along with record heat, this summer has seemed to be one of the weakest monsoon seasons in state history. How much of that is real versus feeling like a weaker monsoon because of the heat?

A: Arizona just experienced an amazing cold and wet winter, which helped mitigate drought and support the state’s water supply. June, which is usually a very hot month, was actually cooler than normal. These factors delayed the onset of the monsoon this year, but every summer is different.

Q: July’s heatwave was an example of just how critical it is to be “cooling secure” in not only Arizona, but all over the world. As climate change further drives these increased periods of high temps, what are some other barriers that may prevent a safe summer season?

A: I grew up in Arizona, and my elementary school only had evaporative coolers, which are limited in cooling. My first car didn’t even have an air conditioning unit installed. These normal situations from 50 years ago are no longer effective.

Q: Are any of Arizona’s urban centers potentially at risk of an event similar to what we have just seen in Hawaii or what was happening in Italy with dryness and heat contributing to runaway wildfires that are able to cause so much destruction?

A: Wildfire is part of Arizona’s ecosystem, but unfortunately, wildfires are burning hotter, killing forested areas and creating burn scars. After the wildfire, those areas become susceptible to debris flows that can impact local communities. Arizona actively works each year to mitigate wildfire potential across the state, but a hot atmosphere is a thirsty atmosphere, which desiccates vegetation and ultimately provides more fuel for wildfires.

Q: Despite climate change already impacting lives, as demonstrated by this summer’s unprecedented heat, there is still some resistance and hesitancy to support initiatives that relate to climate change. Do you think that will change as we see more regular extreme climate events?

A: I think it’s important for folks to understand how climate and weather operate in their own neighborhood. In doing so, they can better understand what’s happening in the climate system. For example, folks can use a simple infrared thermometer to identify the hottest surfaces around their house, finding areas that might benefit from a shade tree. Blocking sunlight with a shade tree can often be the easiest way to decrease the heat load in their house. Decreasing the heat load in their house usually reduces their energy requirements, which can ultimately help their community.

Q: What do you see as the Arizona/Southwest climate trends for the next year, next five years and next ten years?

A: Temperatures in Arizona are increasing, but nighttime temperatures are increasing more than the daytime temperatures. That’s the result of the urban heat island, where buildings and roads act like a solar oven. Every city and town experiences an urban heat island, but it’s also something that can be solved through innovation and planning.

Q: What can we (ASU) do as a research institution to prepare and develop solutions for these futures?

A: Maricopa County is the hottest, most populous county in the country. ASU researchers have been studying and testing Phoenix’s urban heat island for decades. Quantifying microclimates using the innovative MaRTy cart and testing human heat health with the ANDI thermal manikin provide essential data to help mitigate dangerous heat in communities. ASU is leading the world in solving issues of heat health.

Q: Who else besides science/researchers and academic institutions need to be at the table to implement solutions?

A: The people affected by these issues should have a role in finding solutions.

Q: What kind of feedback, if any, have you received from the community members as the state climatologist regarding rising temperatures?

A: Arizona has been dealing with drought, water scarcity and heat probably more than most U.S. communities. I think the Phoenix area was one of the first for National Weather Service partners to actively respond to NWS heat warnings by opening cooling and hydration centers. I think Arizona has some excellent ideas and practices that can help other communities experiencing these issues for the first time.