Instability everywhere

Societal instability overlooked driver of global challenges

Often, I am amazed by the ingenuity of people. We are facing grave threats because of our inability to live in balance with Earth’s systems, and still, the ideas and innovations that flow forth are remarkable. There are engineers, computer scientists, chemists, physicists, social scientists, and arts and humanities scholars focused on solving the most critical challenges of our time, including climate change, availability of water and food, and stable energy supplies, to name just a few examples.

Unfortunately, our efforts to date are not enough. For example, it is highly likely that we will miss the ambitious goal of stopping global warming at 1.5°C, and it will take every solution possible to hold the warming of our planet to less than 2°C. The negative impacts of climate change are not a “future” problem – the effects are visible now, with increasingly frequent, record-breaking disasters happening on every continent.

And yet, society fails to act with the necessary urgency. Why?

There is no simple explanation. Yes, more education is needed. Yes, we need more policies to bolster sustainable development. Yes, we need to overhaul economic and government systems that continue to subsidize companies that further the crises. But, as scientists/scholars and human beings, we must also take a step back and realize that climate change and other pressures placed on Earth’s life-support systems are actually part of a much larger picture; that these issues are rooted in choices people made that depleted Earth’s resources. Humankind must focus on how to transition the fundamental systems that we rely on. Such a focused effort can only take place in a stable society. A lack of it is the transcendent threat to thriving futures.

Societal stability is closely linked to how members of communities and societies feel about the security of the system in which they live. The United Nations defines human security as the “widespread and cross-cutting challenges to the survival, livelihood and dignity” of people. There is no security without societal stability. If too many elements of a society are suppressed or exploited, people will reach a tipping point and demand change. They may take extraordinary measures, including risking their lives, to force reform. Oppression is inherently unstable.

Across the world, there are whole communities struggling to meet biological and safety needs, and while climate change amplifies those risks, it is not the root cause. The scientific community has spent more than a decade defining and measuring the Environmental Planetary Boundaries, nine subsystems of Earth that are key to its overall stability and survival of life. Researchers have spent considerably less time exploring Societal Planetary Boundaries or the role human security will play in the ability to address environmental crises. Social processes – human activities and decisions – are why humankind is approaching and exceeding environmental planetary boundaries.

We have replaced the primary threats of the past – lack of adequate shelter and food, plus humans’ former status as prey for significantly larger carnivores – with complex challenges caused by social dynamics and decision-making that represent immediate threats to societal stability and human security. Many still lack protection from inclement weather, though not because the materials do not exist. Too many are food insecure due to inequitable distribution and extreme weather. Violence and war are putting lives and livelihoods in immediate peril. Increasingly, the underlying reasons for these threats are rooted in our decision-making. The choices we make are endangering the future of our species and our planet.

Floodwaters from the Pearl River spill into a Jackson, Mississippi neighborhood in August 2022

These threats are present across all nations, though inequitably distributed and often overlapping. Consider the outdated water infrastructure in Jackson, Mississippi, where government officials ignored for decades the basic need of safe water of the majority-Black city. Or the failing energy sector in South Africa, where a combination of poor workforce training and alleged sabotage are contributing to blackouts severe enough to damage the economy and cast doubt on governing parties’ ability to lead. Or Ukraine, where the Russian military is attacking military and civilian targets, including electrical grids and other vital infrastructure. And Aleppo, where an earthquake ravaged a populace already under pressure from compounding crises left by civil war, lack of government, economic turmoil and cholera outbreaks. Aleppo is a prime example of the increasing impact of human-made disasters.

Ukrainians and Turks protest the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Istanbul, Türkiye, in February 2022.

The human species has moved far out of equilibrium with the life supporting systems of our planet and disrupted the finely tuned balances between Earth systems. This interference has led to an increasing number of challenges and crises for our planet and humankind, and has narrowed the option space for the coming generations. At the same time, humankind repeatedly has demonstrated its ability to rise to the challenges it is facing and solve complex problems on appropriate time scales. The Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory is a place that is focused on bringing a diverse set of talent together to anticipate and address the most critical challenges ahead of us. Together, we can and will provide decision-makers with options and innovations for shaping our world in a fashion that will provide opportunities for future generations.

Peter Schlosser

Vice President and Vice Provost, Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State University