Eased restrictions and airline resilience will drive aviation growth

Air travel is once again gaining momentum as governments across the world continue to lift travel restrictions. It is now clear that countries that continue to try and lock-out the disease, rather than manage it, risk missing out on the significant economic and societal benefits that international aviation brings.

In the Middle East, airline traffic rose 215.3% in February 2022 compared to February 2021, well up compared to the 145% increase in January 2022, versus the same month in 2021.

The improvement was driven by the fall in Omicron infections and the corresponding increase in travel demand. Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are welcoming increasing numbers of travellers for tourism and businessrelated events, which is enabling air traffic to hover close to pre-crisis levels.

African airlines had a 69.5% rise in February RPKs versus a year ago, a major improvement compared to the 20.5% year-over-year increase recorded in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. February 2022 capacity was up 34.7% and load factor climbed 12.9 percentage points to 63%.

In general, airlines across the Middle East and Africa have adapted and learned significant lessons from the past few years, particularly on how to be more commercially robust, flexible and how to adopt a digital-first approach.

This has enabled airlines to effectively manage downturns and remain resilient throughout them. Now, with the increase in travel demand and easing of restrictions, we expect to see a steady rise in air traffic growth.

As of March 2022, African airlines were scheduled to receive 29% more aircraft deliveries in 2022 compared with 2021 while Middle Eastern carriers are expected to obtain 47% more deliveries over the same period. This signals a positive upswing with airlines looking to invest in more sustainable and efficient aircraft to meet future travel demand.

Improving pandemic developments globally bode well for the air travel recovery in 2022, though the geopolitical issues in Eastern Europe combined with rising inflationary pressures will negatively impact some markets. The conflict in Eastern Europe is creating significant new challenges, notably in air cargo rates and capacity as well as economic activity.

Fuel has also clearly been a major challenge for airlines. Globally there has been a very significant increase in jet fuel prices and with fuel representing the single biggest cost base of the industry, airlines will face a difficult period until costs stabilise.

As the long-awaited recovery in air travel accelerates, it is important that infrastructure providers are prepared for a major increase in passenger numbers in the coming months. The peak northern summer travel season will be critical for jobs throughout the travel and tourism value chain. Governments can help by ensuring that border positions are staffed adequately and that background security checks for new staff are managed as efficiently as possible.