Jobs Report Issue 3, September 2012 The Australian labour market has been treading water for months now, with the unemployment rate hovering around 5.1% to 5.2%. Although unemployment fell in August (from 5.2% to 5.1%), so did employment, down by 8 800 people – the reason for this apparent disconnect is that participation has fallen. Quite a few people have left the labour force, with the participation rate falling from 65.6% to 65% over the year, suggesting that the more-or-less stable unemployment rate is masking some weakness in the jobs market. Park of that weakness comes from the public sector, with the public administration industry shedding nearly 20 000 net jobs in the August quarter alone.
Falling job advertisements and rising unemployment expectations suggest that unemployment may be set to rise in the coming months, although the signs are mixed. The ABS measure of job advertisements rose in the August quarter, though it was still down on its August 2011 level. The public sector is dragging down the overall level of job vacancies, with big falls in vacancies over the year in the ACT and Queensland in particular.
There is certainly weakness in the Tasmanian labour market, with the unemployment rate in that state blowing out to 6.8% from 5.2% a year ago. Even that figure masks the true weakness in Tassie, which has experienced a large fall in its employment-topopulation ratio. The net jobs that have been added in Tasmania in recent years have tended to be part time, while full time work has fallen sharply. The biggest falls in employment in Tasmania since the onset of the GFC have been in the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry. This issue of the Jobs Report contains a feature on the Tasmanian employment situation, as well as a feature on employment outcomes for people with different levels of educational attainment.
If you have any comments or questions about this report, or would like to make suggestions for future reports, please contact Matt Cowgill at mcowgill@actu.org.au.
Australian jobs at a glance Level
Monthly change
Year-ended change
11498100
-8800
62100
8071400
600
33200
3426700
-9300
29000
18640300
22500
237700
Employment-to-population ratio
61.7%
-0.1pp
-0.4pp
Unemployment rate
5.1%
-0.1pp
-0.2pp
Unemployed persons
622600
-10600
-12500
Underemployment rate (quarterly)
7.2%
-0.1pp
0.2pp
Participation rate
65.0%
-0.2pp
-0.6pp
Employed persons -Full
time employment
-Part
time employment
Working age population
Source: ABS, FWA. Underlying CPI is the average of the trimmed mean and weighted median. All figures are seasonally adjusted other than the CPI and ALCI. The gender pay gap is calculated using full time adult AWOTE.
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 1
Employment and unemployment It’s been a case of one step forward, one back for the Australian labour market in recent months. The number of
Figure 2: Change in employment over the year to August Thousands 70 Males
people in work rose by around 28 000 in May, fell by around 30 000 in June, rose by around 12 000 in July and then fell by 8 800 in August. The unemployment rate has remained more or less constant, around 5.1%-5.2%, but employment growth hasn’t kept up with the growth in the working-age population. Over the year to August, employment rose by 62 100 people, but the working-age population rose by nearly
Females
Persons
62.1
60 50 41.0 40
33.2 28.6 29.0
30
21.1
20.7 20 12.5
240 000. 10
There was a small rise in male full-time employment in
0.4 0 Full time
August, but female full-time employment fell, as did parttime employment for both genders. Note that in the ABS Labour Force survey, ‘full time’ includes everyone who works more than 35 hours in the survey week, including casual
Total
Figure 3 tells the story of the last year or so in the Australian labour market – treading water with an unemployment rate of around 5.2%. Although the pace of employment growth
workers.
has been a little disappointing, Australia still has a lower
Figure 1: Change in employment in August Thousands 6
unemployment rate than most other OECD countries, and a Males
4.4
Females
lower rate than Australia recorded for virtually all the 1980s,
Persons
4
90s, and 2000s.
2
0.6
Figure 3: Unemployment rate
0
Per cent 7.0
-0.9
-2 -4
Part time
Source: ACTU Calculations based on ABS 6202.
6.5 -3.8
-4.0
-6
6.0
-4.7
5.5
-8 -8.4
-10
-8.8
-9.3
5.0 4.5
-12 Full time
Part time
Total
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202.
Over the year, the biggest area of growth has been in parttime female employment, which accounted for nearly half the total growth in employment over the year. There was
4.0 3.5 3.0 Aug 02
Seasonally adjusted Aug 04
Aug 06
Aug 08
Trend Aug 10
Aug 12
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202.
virtually no growth in female full-time employment over the
While the unemployment rate tends to get all the attention,
year, while male employment of both types rose modestly. In
in some ways the employment-to-population ratio gives a
total, the number of part-time workers rose by twice as much
more complete picture of the state of the labour market. This
as the number of full-time workers in the year to August.
measures the proportion of people aged 15 and over who are in work. This ratio gives a less positive picture of the state of
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 2
the labour market – even though the unemployment rate has been stable over the past year or so, the employment-topopulation ratio has fallen, and is now nearing the level seen in the wake of the global financial crisis. The reason for the
Figure 5: Change in employment-to-population ratios in downturns and recoveries Percentage 5 points 0 0
10
Months since peak 15 20 25 30 35
40
45
50
apparent disconnect between these measures is that people -1
have been leaving the labour force and are therefore no longer counted as unemployed. The participation rate, which
-2
measure the proportion of working-age people who are either in work or actively looking for work, fell by 0.6
-3
percentage points in the year to August.
Early 00s
Figure 4: Employment-to-population ratio
GFC -4
Per cent 64
Early 80s Early 90s
-5
63
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, trend.
62
The flat unemployment rate in 2012 has been somewhat surprising given the fairly robust economic growth seen in the
61
first two quarters of the year. When the economy grows at 60
around 3% per year or above, the unemployment rate usually falls; despite growth in excess of this rate in the first half of
59 Seasonally adjusted 58 Aug 02
the year, the unemployment rate remained at around 5.2%.
Trend
This period of ‘jobless growth’ echoes a similar phenomenon Aug 04
Aug 06
Aug 08
Aug 10
Aug 12
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202.
we saw between late 2006-early 2008. In early 2011 we saw the opposite of jobless growth – a steady unemployment rate
At the end of 2010, it looked as if Australia’s employment-to-
in the face of slow output growth – but this was largely due
population ratio was set to return to its pre-GFC record high
to the natural disasters in Queensland and elsewhere. Figure 6: Output growth & the unemployment rate
of 63%. Returning to the pre-downturn peak within three years would be a strong performance, nearly equal to the
7%
recovery from the very mild downturn of the early 2000s.
6%
Instead, turmoil in Europe and other factors have mean that
5%
the ratio has fallen a little, leaving us around a percentage
4%
point below the pre-GFC peak. Figure 5 shows how the
3%
employment-to-population ratio has fallen and recovered
2%
during economic downturns in the past three decades. The
1%
worst was the early 90s, in which the ratio remained around
0%
-3.0 Jobless growth
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
3 percentage points below its peak, 52 months after the
-1%
Non farm GDP growth (LHS)
downturn began.
-2%
Change in unemployment rate (ppts) - inverted (RHS)
-3% 2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, ABS 5206.
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 3
2012
3.0 4.0
In the second half of 2012 and in 2013, it’s expected that the rate of economic growth will slow a little, to around its typical pace (~3%), which is usually consistent with a stable unemployment rate. The outlook for employment and
Figure 8: Number of hours worked per month per person aged 15+ Hours per person per month 92
unemployment is examined in a later section of this report. 90
Not even the employment-to-population ratio gives you a complete picture of trends in employment. The ratio can be
88
stable even if workers are having their hours cut. While employment and the total number of hours worked tend to
86
grow at around the same pace, the two can sometimes diverge. In the wake of the GFC, hours fell further than
84
employment, which meant that the labour market downturn was less severe than it otherwise would have been. In recent months we’ve seen a mild version of the same phenomenon – employment rose modestly over the year to August, but the total number of hours worked fell slightly. Remember that most of the growth in employment over the year was in part time work (Figure 2).
82 Aug 02
Aug 04
Aug 06
Aug 08
Aug 10
Aug 12
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202.
The fall in hours has contributed to a small rise in underemployment, which refers to workers who would like to work more hours than they currently do, and are available to do so. The underemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points over the year (although it fell in the August quarter).
Figure 7: Annual growth in employment and hours worked 6%
When you add the underemployment rate to the unemployment rate you get the labour force underutilisation rate, which fell a little in August to 12.3%, the same as in the
4%
August quarter 2011. 2%
Figure 9: Labour force underutilisation rate Per cent 15
0%
-2%
13 Employment
-4% Aug 02
Aug 04
Aug 06
Hours Aug 08
Aug 10
Aug 12
11 Unemployment
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, trend.
This weakness can be seen in Figure 8, which is a measure the ACTU has assembled to show another perspective on the
9
7
labour market. It merely divides the total number of hours worked in the economy each month by the number of people
5
Underemployment
in the population aged 15+. It’s similar to the employment-topopulation ratio, but using hours rather than employment.
3 Aug 07
Aug 08
You can see that this measure is near the post-GFC low of around 86.5 hours per month per working-age person. ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 4
Source: ABS 6202.
Aug 09
Aug 10
Aug 11
Aug 12
Feature: Education matters Around 52% of people aged 15-64 have a full time job, but
lower levels of educational attainment were hit hard.
this figure is nearly 75% for people with a postgraduate
Although the gap between the unemployment rate for
1
degree. If you have a Certificate III or IV, you’re about as
people with a bachelor degree and those without post-school
likely to work full time or be unemployed as someone with a
qualifications is still quite high (at around 4 percentage points
bachelor degree. Only 40% or so of people without post-
in 2011), it has fallen steadily over the past two decades.
school qualifications work full time; people with lower levels of educational attainment are also more likely to be unemployed or out of the labour force. Figure 10: Labour force status of persons by highest educational attainment – May 2011 Not in the labour force Employed part time
Unemployed Employed full time
Postgraduate Degree
7
Certificate III/IV
65.6%
Bachelor Degree
65.1%
6 5
60.6%
Advanced Diploma/Diploma
4
56.5%
Certificate I/II
42.6%
No non-school qualification
39.6% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6227. Persons aged 15-64.
Figure 11: Unemployment rate by educational attainment
1997
2002
2007
2012
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6227 (various years).
Still, as Figure 10 showed, a large proportion of people with lower levels of educational attainment remain out of the
qualifications are less likely to be in full-time work now than
12%
they were 20 years ago, though the opposite is true for the
No post-school qualifications
10%
working-age population as a whole. Secure, full-time work for people without trades or university qualifications has become
8% Total
much rarer over the past decades. Figure 13: Proportion of the population in full-time work
Cert III
4% 2%
3 1992
labour force or unemployment. People without post-school
Per cent 14%
6%
Percentage points 9 8
73.4%
Graduate Dip./Graduate Cert.
Figure 12: Gap between unemployment rate for people with a bachelor degree and those with no post-school qualifications
Per cent 60%
Bachelor degree
All persons 0% 1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
50%
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6227 (various years).
While the overall unemployment rate was 5.1% in 2011, it
40% People with no post-school qualifications
was 7.1% for people without a post-school qualification, and just 3% for people with a bachelor degree. Even at the height
30%
of the early 90s recession, people with bachelor degrees still had an unemployment rate of only 5.4%, while people with
20% 1992
1997
2002
2007
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6227 (various years).
1
ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, table 18, May 2011.
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 5
2012
Employment by State and industry Tasmania
continues
to
have
a
disturbingly
high
rates across the states and territories, which is perhaps
2
surprising given the well-documented ‘multi-speed’ nature of
The Tasmanian employment situation is examined in depth in
the economy. On the jobs front at least, the states and
a feature in this ACTU Jobs Report. South Australia has also
territories are a little less ‘multi-speed’ than they used to be.
seen unemployment rise from 5.2% in August 2011 to 5.8% in
The shaded area in Figure 15 represents the area between
the latest survey. Unemployment rose a little in Queensland,
the highest and lowest unemployment rates of the States and
Victoria and the NT, while falling elsewhere.
Territories for each month.
unemployment rate of 6.8%, up from 5.2% just one year ago.
Figure 15: Unemployment rates over time You could group the states and territories into three ‘speeds’
Per cent 9
– Tasmania with its unemployment rate of 6.8%; the territories and WA with rates between 3.6% and 4.2%; and
8
the mainland states other than WA, all of which lie between
7
5% and 5.8%, although NSW and the other states are
6
trending in different directions.
5
Figure 14: Unemployment rates by State & Territory 4
5.2
Tas
6.8
3
5.2
SA Qld
5.8
2
5.6 5.8
1
State & Territories
5.2 5.5
Vic
0 Aug 02
5.3 5.0
NSW
ACT 0
2
3.7
Aug 2011
4.0 3.6
Aug 2012
4 Per cent
Aug 08
Aug 10
Aug 12
Looking at employment growth by industry, the largest job
4.2
WA
Aug 06
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202. trend.
4.1 4.2
NT
Aug 04
Australia
gains in the August quarter were in information media & telecommunications (+3.9%, 9 000 persons), which has been buoyed by the NBN rollout. Professional services also grew
6
8
Source: ABS 6202, trend.
strongly (+1.7%, 15 300); accommodation and food services (+1.2%, 9 200); mining (+3.2%, 8 500); and education and 3
training (+1%, 8 400). Employment shrank by a massive 19 With the Tasmanian unemployment rate rising sharply in
200 persons in the ‘public administration and safety’ industry,
2012, the gap between the unemployment rates across the
which encompasses parts of the public sector at the local,
country has risen a little, but is still lower than it was in the
state, and federal levels. This meant that the public
pre-mining boom era. In early 2003, unemployment ranged
administration industry saw employment shrink by 2.7% in
from 4.2% in the ACT to 8.8% in Tasmania, with the national
only one quarter. Construction also had a bad quarter, down
rate at 6.1%. As Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen
18 000 persons, a 1.8% quarterly contraction in employment.
over the past decade, so has the gap between unemployment 2
The state and territory figures are based on the ABS trend estimates unless otherwise noted. ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 6
3
All industry-level figures for employment use the ABS trend estimate unless otherwise noted.
Over the year, the story was familiar: mining added nearly 50 000 employed people, beaten only by professional services at
Figure 16: Yearly change in employment by industry (%) Mining
21.3%
61 400. The professional services industry includes some
Information Media and…
workers who provide services to mining – this industry
Rental, Hiring and Real…
7.6%
Professional, Scientific and…
7.1%
includes things like architectural and engineering services, as
15.8%
Agriculture, Forestry and…
4.4%
well as legal and accounting services, both of which are given
Education and Training
4.3%
a boost by mining.
Health Care and Social…
3.1%
Arts and Recreation Services
Employment in health care and social assistance rose by 40 900 people over the year, a solid 3.1%. Health care and social
2.1%
Electricity, Gas, Water and…
1.6%
Manufacturing
0.3%
Accommodation and Food… -0.7%
assistance has long been the fastest growing industry in
Other Services
Australia in absolute employment terms. In the years to
Financial and Insurance… -1.1%
August 2011, 2010 and 2009, the health care industry added more employed persons than any other industry; it was knocked off its perch by professional services this year, but remains a key source of jobs growth.
Wholesale Trade
-1.3%
Retail Trade
-1.3%
Administrative and Support… -1.4% Public Administration and… -5.5% Transport, Postal and… -6.0% Construction
retail trade industry shrank by 16 400 employed persons, with some divergent trends in the sub-divisions of that industry. Somewhat surprisingly, the manufacturing industry added 2 600 workers over the year (in trend terms).
-6.5%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Yearly change in employment (%)
Over the year to August, construction, public administration and the transport industry all shed over 30 000 people. The
-0.9%
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, trend.
Figure 17: Yearly change in employment by industry (thousands of employed persons) Professional, Scientific…
61.4
Mining
48.3
Health Care and Social…
40.9
A reasonably large set of industries more or less stayed
Education and Training
37.1
constant in employment terms over the year, with net
Information Media and…
32.8
employment gains or losses between -6 000 and 5 000 (see
Rental, Hiring and Real…
14.9
Agriculture, Forestry and…
14.4
Figure 17). Remember that these figures all show the net employment change over the year, which is the result of a lot of people moving in and out of work.
Arts and Recreation…
4.5
Manufacturing
2.6
Electricity, Gas, Water…
2.4
Other Services
-4.1
Financial and Insurance…
-4.8
Wholesale Trade
-5.5
Accommodation and…
-5.5
Administrative and…
-5.8
Retail Trade
-16.4
Transport, Postal and…
-35.2
Public Administration…
-40.6
Construction
-67.5 -80
-40
0
40
80
Yearly change in employment (000s) Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, trend.
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 7
Feature: Tasmania since the GFC Jobs have been harder to come by in Tasmania than on the
From there, however, things have taken a turn for the worse,
mainland for the past few decades. Between 1980 and 2007,
with the gap between Tasmania and the mainland widening
the Tasmanian unemployment rate was an average of 1.6
once again. Late 2011 and 2012 have been particularly rough
4
percentage points higher than the national rate. Still, the gap
in the island state; in August last year, its unemployment rate
between Tasmania and the rest of the country had slowly
was 5.2%, the same as the national rate, but it then spiked to
been falling in the 2000s; when the GFC hit in mid-2008,
7.2% in March while the national figure remained more or
Tasmania suddenly found itself with a lower unemployment
less stable. Tasmania’s rate has come down a little, to 6.8% in
rate than the national average, something that hadn’t
August, but it’s still worryingly high.
happened since October 1980. Figure 18: Unemployment rates in Tasmania & Australia Per cent 14
While the Tasmanian unemployment rate is enough of a worry, the employment rate has fared even worse. At a national level, the employment-to-population ratio is around
12
a percentage point below its pre-GFC peak, having fallen from
10
around 63% to 62%. In Tasmania, the ratio has fallen by around four percentage points, from 60% to around 56%, as
8
shown in Figure 20. 6
Figure 20: Employment to population ratios 64%
4
Australia
Other State & Territories 2
62%
Australia
0 Aug 92
Tasmania
60% Aug 02
Aug 12
Source: ABS 6202, trend and ACTU calculations.
Figure 19: Tasmanian unemployment rate minus the Australian unemployment rate Percentage points 4
58% Tasmania
56% 54% 52%
3
50% Aug 92
Aug 96
Aug 00
Aug 04
Aug 08
Aug 12
Source: ACTU calculations bsaed on ABS 6202, trend.
2
A large driver of this fall in employment has been the drop in
1
full-time work, particularly among men. In mid-2008, around 57% of Tasmanian men over 15 were in full-time work; in
0
August 2012, this had fallen below 49%, a huge eight -1 Aug 92
percentage point fall in three years (see Figure 21). This isn’t Aug 02
Aug 12
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, trend.
far short of the nine percentage point drop in the male fulltime employment-to-population ratio recorded between 1990 and 93 in Tasmania.
4
All figures in this feature are based on the trend estimates from ABS 6202 unless otherwise noted.
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 8
Figure 21: Male full-time employment-to-population ratio 61%
For women, the fall in full-time work has been less severe, with the proportion of the Tasmanian women in full-time
59%
Australia
work falling by 3.2 percentage points over the period. Nearly
57%
all of this fall has been offset by a rise in part-time work
55%
among women, with unemployment rising by 0.8 percentage
53%
points. The participation rate for Tasmanian women has
51%
actually risen over this period, with the proportion who are
Tasmania
not in the labour force falling by 0.2 percentage points.
49% 47% 45% Aug 92
The biggest source of job losses over the period, by far, has Aug 96
Aug 00
Aug 04
Aug 08
Aug 12
been the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry, which saw
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, trend.
a net reduction of 7 100 workers between the August quarter
Table 1: Change in labour force status in Tasmania between April 2008 and August 2012
2008 and 2012. Almost all of these jobs were full time. The
July 08 August 12 Change
Full time 56.7% 48.5% -8.3%
July 08 August 12 Change
Full time 26.6% 23.4% -3.2%
Male Part time 11.1% 12.5% 1.4% Female Part time 25.5% 28.1% 2.6%
Unemployed
NILF
2.2% 4.6% 2.4%
29.9% 34.4% 4.4%
Unemployed
NILF
2.8% 3.6% 0.8%
45.0% 44.8% -0.2%
6
health care and social assistance industry grew by 7 600 employed people over the period, but most of the net new jobs were part-time. Mining added 3 000 net full-time jobs in Tasmania over between 2008 and 2012, but a range of industries reduced their full-time workforces. Figure 22: Change in employment by industry in Tasmania between the August quarter 2008 and 2012 Full-time Health Care and Social…
7.6
Mining
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6202, trend.5
3.0
Arts and Recreation Services
The approach set out in Table 1 provides a clear way to understand the shifts in the labour force status of Tasmanians that have happened since the GFC; July 2008 is
2.2
Professional, Scientific and…
1.6
Transport, Postal and…
1.5
Electricity, Gas, Water and…
0.5
Information Media and…
0.3
Education and Training
used as the ‘baseline’ month. The rows marked ‘change’ in Table 1 show the difference, in percentage points, between
Part-time
0.2
Accommodation and Food…
-0.4
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate…
the proportion of men or women who were in a particular
-0.5
Other Services
-0.9
labour force state (like full time work) in July 2008 and August
Public Administration and…
-1.8
2012. Over that period, the proportion of men in full time
Administrative and Support…
-2.1
Construction
work fell by 8.3 percentage points. The proportion of men
-2.3
Financial and Insurance…
who are not in the labour force (NILF – ie. not employed and
Manufacturing
not actively looking for work) rose by 4.4 percentage points,
Wholesale Trade
-2.4 -2.7 -2.8
Retail Trade
accounting for over half the fall in male full-time
-2.8
Agriculture, Forestry and…
employment, while both unemployment and part-time work
-10
have risen a little.
-7.1 -5
0 5 Thousands
10
Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6291.0.55.003, original. The data labels in the figure refer to the net change in total employment.
5
All figures are expressed as a proportion of the population 15+; the unemployment-to-population ratio given here differs from the usual unemployment rate.
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 9
6
The figures used in Table 1 and elsewhere in this feature are based on the monthly labour force survey; the industry-level data are quarterly.
The employment outlook Both the RBA and Treasury have forecast that the
Job vacancies also give us a sense of how the labour market
unemployment rate will rise a little in the second half of this
might fare in the coming months – and the picture is mixed.
year, to around 5.5% by December. So far, the rate has defied
ANZ’s job advertisements series, which combines newspaper
this forecast, staying at around 5.2%, but the stable
and internet job ads, fell by 2.3% in August, to be 9.6% lower
unemployment rate has masked some weakness as discussed
over the year. The number of job ads has fallen every month
earlier in this report.
Forward-looking measures of the
since March. This fall in job advertisements suggests that the
labour market’s performance mostly paint a negative picture,
pace of employment growth may be weak in the coming
consistent with an expected rise in unemployment over the
months.
coming months. The official ABS data on job vacancies paint a mixed picture. The
Westpac-Melbourne
Institute
unemployment
Overall vacancies rose by a healthy 4.2% in the August
expectations survey is a key source of forward-looking
quarter, but were still down 4.4% on their August 2012 level.
information about the labour market. The survey asks
The weakness is being driven by the public sector, particularly
consumers whether they think unemployment will rise, fall,
in the ACT and Queensland, with falls in public sector job
or stay the same in the coming months. Movements in the
vacancies in those jurisdictions down by 50% and 58.7%
expectations index have been fairly well correlated with
respectively over the year. Job ads in the private sector rose
changes in the unemployment rate since the mid-1980s.
by a solid 5.9% over the quarter.
Figure 23: Unemployment expectations and the change in the unemployment rate: 1987 to 2012 Percentage Expectations (index) (LHS)
Index
200 180
points
Change in unemployment rate (year-ended) (RHS)
4
Figure 24 sums up the current state of play in the labour market – the number of vacancies per unemployed person has fallen in the past year (meaning conditions have
3
worsened), but we’re still well above GFC levels and well
160
2
above the pre-mining boom typical ratio of vacancies to
140
1
120
0
100
-1
80 Sep 87
Sep 92
Sep 97
Sep 02
Sep 07
-2 Sep 12
unemployed people. Figure 24: Job vacancies per unemployed person Vacancies 0.40
0.30
Source: Westpac-MI unemployment expectations survey, ABS 6202, ACTU calculations. Both series are based on a 7-month centred moving average.
0.20 As shown in Figure 23, big increases in consumer’s expectations of unemployment have tended to presage a rise in the unemployment rate. The recent leap in unemployment
0.10
expectations, which are now at their highest level since the early 1990s other than during the GFC, is a very worrying sign.
0.00 May 82 May 88 May 94 May 00 May 06 May 12 Source: ACTU calculations based on ABS 6354, ABS 6202, RBA G7. Imputed vacancy values from ABS 1364.0.15.003 used for five quarters in 2008-09.
ACTU Jobs Report | September 2012 | Page 10