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2021 . . . ..Is History Repeating Itself?

I personally think that if one believes that the world is turning differently in these times and that we can’t learn from history, they are making a mistake.

Is it still relevant today, what caused the downfall of the Roman empire, or can we identify something for today’s society when we analyze what factors led to the French revolution? Winston Churchill warned the house of commons not to think in the short term and to not just pay attention to headlines when he said, “Those who are not able to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.” While that was over 70 years ago, I think it fits the current social media age well. This philosophy goes back even further, as Churchill borrowed his quote from the Spanish philosopher George Santayana who wrote in his book, “The Life of Reason” that “Somebody who is not remembering his past is condemned For myself, I believe to repeat it and paying a post-COVID-19, we will high price.” experience a new iterThis analysis is often Twenties.” One hundred used to analyze war ac- years ago, just ahead tivities. An example is of the roaring twenties, the various wars of the was World War 1. Addifferent armies against ditionally, 1918 to 2020, Russia. Sweden learned the Spanish Flu was inin the 17th century how fecting about 1/3 of the difficult it is to win world’s population. Afagainst Russia, how hard ter those horrific years, the winter is. A century people around the globe later Napoleon made the were hungry to live. same mistake, and in the The spirit of the Roaring second World War, his- Twenties was marked by tory repeated itself when a general feeling of novGermany lost almost 1 elty associated with momillion troops by trying dernity and a break with to take Moscow during tradition. Everything the winter. seemed possible through

2020 HAS NOT ONLY BEEN A TURNING POINT FOR AVALON PARK GROUP, IT HAS BEEN ONE OF OUR MOST ACTIVE YEARS EVER!

Often, we are told that history is not anymore so important, because the world is different than it was 100 years ago. But even while new trends are developing, they can often be found rooted in the past, because human nature has not changed.

We often think that this time things will be different, and while events from the past will not be repeated exactly, similarities between the past and present will always exist. ation of the “Roaring modern technology such as cars, movies, and radio. By the middle of the decade, prosperity was widespread, with the second half of the decade known, as “the Golden Twenties.”

I think 2020 will be that game-changer and COVID-19 will be remembered as a turning point.

COVID-19 has served as an engine of innovation. Under lockdown, e-commerce as a share of American retail sales increased as much in eight weeks as it had in the previous five years. As people stayed in Avalon Park, almost overnight, businesses began to run from spare rooms and kitchen tables, an experiment that would otherwise have taken years to unfold, if ever.

While this disruption is in its infancy, COVID-19 is proof that change is possible even in conservative industries like energy, education, or health care.

2020 has not only been a turning point for Avalon Park Group, it has been one of our most active years ever. Ask any of my 7 Senior Vice Presidents (we are working a combined 80! years together), and they all will tell you 2020 has been our busiest year ever! And it is just the beginning.

While we should always proceed with caution, remember, the Roaring Twenties was also followed by the great depression, I encourage us to take the turn into health and prosperity this year. I am hopeful the vaccine will succeed; I am optimistic for a great 2021 and beyond.

Wishing You a Happy and Healthy New Year!