MARCH, MADDENING Hogs must replace momentum as annual dance partner

By Mark Carter

If the Arkansas Razorbacks are to make another March run, they’ll do so working from a different formula than the one that carried them to back-to-back Elite 8 appearances in 2021 and ’22.

A three-game losing streak to close the regular season sent the Hogs to 8-10 in league play, a No. 10 seed headed into the SEC tournament and a date with Auburn as this magazine went to press. But the 19-12 Hogs, boasting a No. 18 NET ranking still after a home loss to Kentucky, which followed road losses to Alabama and Tennessee, remained on the safe side of the bubble per most professional bracketologists including reliable forecasters Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi.

For many Razorback fans, that the Hogs remained off the bubble and presumably in the dance despite such a dreary close was a welcome quirk to the NCAA tournament metrics that go into determining the at-large field. Hog fans justifiably have come to expect such quirks working against their team.

But heading into the SEC tournament, Arkansas likely was looking at the 8-9 line with an opportunity to move up depending on its conference tourney run. And that’s a different scenario indeed to 2021, when the Hogs went undefeated in February after a 2-4 SEC start to challenge for the league title and earn a 3 seed. And to 2022, when they reeled off nine straight following an 0-3 league start on the way to a 4 seed in the dance.

This season’s 1-5 SEC start promised similar results with the pending return of super freshman and projected lottery pick Nick Smith, the head of that heralded No. 2 national recruiting class. The Jacksonville native missed the start of the season and played limited minutes in four December games before his right knee flared again, necessitating a six-week absence. Though Smith began rounding into expected form by the regular season’s close — 26 against Geor- gia, 24 at Tennessee, 25 against UK — he had seen meaningful minutes in just eight games.

Adding insult to injury, in this case literally so, was Trevon Brazile’s December torn ACL that ended his season early. Brazile is the 6-10 sophomore transfer from Missouri, a SportsCenter Top Ten regular who could shoot reliably from deep and provide another defensive stopper. Two of Eric Musselman’s primary pieces to the 2022-23 puzzle were gone — two of the pieces responsible for all those Final 4 calls — and the young Hogs struggled to find a groove, flashes of brilliance overlaid with moments of hair-pulling exasperation.

Do these younger Hogs have a similar March run in them? Though this season’s slow SEC start mirrored those of the past two seasons that resulted in the Hogs flipping a midseason switch and riding into the postseason with momentum, Musselman must find a new dance partner for his latest iteration of Arkansas basketball. If the Hogs are to advance for a third straight year, they’ll have to trade momentum for a reboot. Forget the last two weeks and accentuate those positives. Focus on winning 19 games against a top 20 strength-of-schedule that included a brutal close in what clearly was the nation’s second-best conference; on the now fully established reintroduction of Smith into the lineup, which should portend good things; and if nothing else, on leaving pay-by-the-whistle SEC officiating behind in the rear-view mirror. Should they indeed receive an invitation, the Hogs would benefit as much as any team in this year’s field from the tournament’s more loosely called, “let ‘em play” approach.

Arkansas may stumble into the dance, but several factors bode well. For starters, the weight of expectations has been lifted. Outside of a first-round loss, it’s all gravy this time around for the Hogs. The level of competition may actually go down in March as well, and teams will have to game plan for a projected lottery pick who’s rounding into form.

When focused, this bunch can play lockdown defense, and its perimeter length will spell matchup trouble for most. When Devo Davis keeps his head, he can be as tough a defender as there is in college basketball. And offensively, his recent bloom from 3 has helped keep defenses honest. For Arkansas to make a March run, Devo will have to be March Devo — lockdown defender, diver for loose balls, garbage ball rebounder and perhaps just as importantly, reliable shooter from deep.

This year’s field is as wide open as it’s been in a while. There are teams no Hog fan should want to face in the dance, at least early — teams like Houston come to mind. But Arkansas has proven it can play with the likes of Alabama. On a given night, these Hogs can play with anyone.

On a given night … The Hogs are gonna need a “given night” or two to match recent postseason success. And of course, the Hogs will say goodbye to SEC refs who seemed predisposed to call fouls on Razorback play ers. Officiating in March Madness tends to the “let ῾em play” variety, and that bodes well for this year’s roughshod bunch of Hogs.

Any reboot, of course, needs to leave behind the unforced turnovers, the defensive lapses and the missed free throws. The Mitchell twins, Jalen Graham and Jordan Walsh will have to give Arkansas an inside presence on offense. Moving forward, will Muss be willing to live with Graham’s defensive liabilities in order to get him touches on offense? Graham is as guaranteed a basket as the Hogs have on the post. And don’t be surprised to Kamani Johnson, little used of late, doing Kamani things in March.

Is there a similar postseason run in this bunch? May not be in the cards this time. It was obvious by late February that the team’s legs were fading. The Hogs ended the regular season exhausted, physically and otherwise.

But March is a laboratory made for coaches like Muss, and there’s a little thing called second wind. If the Hogs can get back to forcing turnovers and speeding the tempo, if Anthony Black can protect the ball and keep playing downhill, then a troublesome matchup awaits any team that draws Arkansas. It’s doubtful many coaches would want to see a Muss-coached team in March anyway, much less one that had caught its second wind and came with a future lottery pick rounding into form.