El Ninos far costlier than once thought

SETH BORENSTEIN Associated Press

WASHINGTON The natural burst of El Nino warming that changes weather worldwide is far costlier with longer-lasting expenses than experts had thought, averaging trillions of dollars in damage, a new study found.

An El Nino is brewing now and it might be a big and therefore costly one, scientists said El Nino is a temporary and natural warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific that causes droughts,floods and heat waves in different parts of the world. It also adds a boost to human-caused warming

The study in Thursday’s journal Science totals global damage with an emphasis on lasting economic scars It runs counter to previous research that found, at least in the United States, that El Ninos overall aren’t too costly and can even be beneficial.

Some but not all outside economists have issues with the new research out of Dartmouth College, saying its damage estimates are too big.

Study authors said the average El Nino costs the global economy about $3 4 trillion. The strong 1997-1998 one cost $5 7 trillion The World Bank estimated the 1997-1998 El Nino cost governments $45 billion, which is more than 100 times smaller than the Dartmouth estimate.

But the Dartmouth team said they are looking at more than the traditional costs and for longer time periods

“We have this sense that El Nino is a really big hammer that hits the Earth system every few years But we didn’t have as much of a handle on its sort of macroeconomic implications both what that means just on a yearto-year basis and what that might mean with future global warming”said study lead author

Christopher Callahan, a climate impacts researcher at Dartmouth.

“Economies bear the scars of El Nino for a decade or more and potentially forever,” said study co-author Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth climate scientist.

The economic scars are the diversion of spending away from technology and innovation toward recovery and rebuilding efforts, Callahan said. It’s about opportunities lost while digging out of the El Nino hole.

The way Callahan and Mankin did this was to simulate a world without an El Nino event and look at the global difference in costs,compared to the global GDP, Mankin said.

El Nino’s biggest impacts generally hit in the northern winter, but in the summer it reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic, studies show