B612 donor report 2016

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ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT

Volume II

2016

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Cover: Photo by Ed Lu from the International Space Station This Page: Photo by Ed Lu of Hurricane Isabel, from the International Space Station


One of the major threats to intelligent life in our universe is a high probability of an asteroid colliding with inhabitable planets. STEPHEN HAWKING


LETTER FROM THE CEO This year has been a year of change, new discoveries, and growth. The support of our donors and the planetary defense community has allowed B612 to be at the forefront of efforts to prevent major asteroid impacts. Something that our B612 supporters can be justifiably proud of is that the 2008 Congressionally mandated goal of finding 90% of NEOs larger than 140 meters is within reach. We believe this goal can be reached because of full federal funding for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) in addition to potential NASA funding for the NEOCam infrared space telescope, which B612 advocates. Because of this progress, it is our intention to package our research on Sentinel as a design reference mission for solar orbiting infrared asteroid space telescopes so that other scientists can benefit from our findings. The 140 meter asteroid detection goal was established by what was thought technically possible in 2008. But 99% of asteroids capable of causing great damage are smaller than 140 meters. These asteroids will go largely undiscovered by LSST or NEOCam, but could still pack the explosive energy of a large nuclear bomb, such as the Tunguska asteroid in 1908 which was equivalent to over 5 Megatons of TNT impact energy. We have therefore been investigating a promising new technology called synthetic tracking. This technology could allow us to address this size range below 140 meters. Synthetic tracking uses extremely fast data processing to compensate for the rapid motion of small asteroids (which are necessarily closer to the telescope than larger asteroids). We have been working jointly with a group of scientists at CalTech and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and have already successfully demonstrated the technique on a ground based telescope. We are studying the possibility of testing a synthetic tracking telescope in Earth orbit.

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LETTER FROM THE CEO


A consequence of the impending huge improvement in observing capabilities is that we face a deluge of new asteroid discoveries, and we will be forced to make asteroid deflection decisions in the coming years. In response, we are moving forward on the important job of creating a more capable and open system for understanding, analyzing, and assessing impact and deflection scenarios. This work, called the Asteroid Decision Analysis Machine or ADAM, continues to gain traction both within our donor community and with scientific and technology partners. Our public education activities included the second annual Asteroid Day on June 30th which was an international success. Through this effort, the scientific community comes together to share research and educate the public. After first announcing Asteroid Day in December 2014, we are pleased to see depth of interest in asteroid awareness and planetary defense. The UN will consider designating Asteroid Day as an officially recognized day by the end of this year. B612 has transitioned from a small group of committed people with visionary goals into a steady organization with a clear place in an important and emerging field. We have leveraged the donations from our supporters to help change the world. In the coming year we will continue this strategy of leveraging our supporters’ investments in the best possible way — for the maximum benefit to the field.

To our future,

Ed Lu Chief Executive Officer and Co-founder B612 Foundation

LETTER FROM THE CEO

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Photograph of the San Francisco Bay Area, by Ed Lu from the International Space Station

ABOUT US B612 is dedicated to protecting Earth from asteroid impacts. We do this through: Science & Technology Driving forward the science and technologies needed to protect the Earth from asteroid impacts. Advocacy & Public Education Educating the general public, the scientific community, and governments about planetary defense against asteroid impacts. Since the organization’s inception in 2002, B612’s work has been carried out entirely through the support of private donors.

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ABOUT US


Navigating a Dynamic and Emerging Field What started as a visionary idea to develop the technology to deflect an asteroid in 2002 between Ed Lu, Rusty Schweickart, Clark Chapman, Piet Hut, and 20 of the world’s top scientists, has grown into a world-renowned organization with an important role in the emerging field of planetary defense. For years, Ed and Rusty advocated for increased asteroid detection and many victories resulted from their efforts. Asteroid detection is now debated seriously in scientific, governmental, and public conversations. The landscape has shifted. Advancements in Asteroid Detection Since the announcement of the Sentinel Mission in 2012, a time when major efforts in asteroid detection were not being funded adequately, new telescopes, including the Large Synoptic

We have the capability — physically, technically — to protect the Earth from asteroid impacts. We are now able to very slightly and subtly reshape the solar system in order to enhance human survival. RUSTY SCHWEICKART, APOLLO 9 ASTRONAUT AND B612 CO-FOUNDER

Survey Telescope (LSST), have been funded, and others are being considered. Given our technical expertise, B612 has an important role arguing for the best detection projects to be carried out and furthermore that the resulting asteroid deflection decisions are made in a systematic and open way. In the Coming Year B612 will build upon its work to advance the field of planetary defense, continuing with programs in science & technology and advocacy & public education. We have five primary objectives driving our work in the coming year. They are to: 1. Ensure the most effective technologies for detecting near-Earth asteroids are advanced. 2. Advance the research and tools needed to create a more efficient and open system for evaluating, analyzing, and assessing asteroid deflection scenarios through the Asteroid Decision Analysis Machine or Project ADAM. 3. Demonstrate synthetic tracking for space based asteroid observations using data from an existing Low Earth Orbiting satellite. 4. Package our research and work on Sentinel as a design reference mission, analyzing the performance of a solar orbiting infrared space telescope for detecting near-Earth asteroids. 5. Drive the global conversation around the need for increased asteroid awareness through activities such as Asteroid Day.

ABOUT US

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2016

2000

PROGRAM EVOLUTION

2004

2012

2008


2002 B612 founded with the goal of significantly altering the orbit of an asteroid in a controlled manner.

2004–2008 B612 leads the Apophi debate.

2005 B612 announces the

Congress gives NASA the

invention of the Gravity

goal of finding 90 percent

Tractor in Nature.

of asteroids larger than 140 meters, called the George E. Brown Act.

2008 B612 funds design study at JPL showing feasibility of the Gravity Tractor.

2012 Open letter to NASA about

B612 announces the Sentinel

B612 moves from a volunteer

deflection mission planning

Space Telescope Mission.

organization to staffed.

and discussions regarding potential impact of asteroid 2011 AG5.

2013 Sentinel passes its first major

Sentinel design published in

technical review.

New Space.

2014 B612 releases asteroid impact

UN Committee on Peaceful

B612 co-founds Asteroid Day,

video with data from the

Uses of Outer Space

a global asteroid-awareness

Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

and General Assembly

campaign.

Organization.

pass resolution creating International Asteroid Warning Network.

2015 B612’s “Sentinel’s Mission to

B612 hosts Bay Area Asteroid

B612 begins work with

Find 500,000 Near-Earth

Day event with California

Caltech on synthetic tracking

Asteroids,” published in IEEE

Academy of Science.

research.

NASA announces Planetary

B612 issues pre-print “Sentinel

B612 begins Asteroid Decision

B612 hosts Bay Area Asteroid

Defense Coordination Office.

Mission Performance for

Analysis Machine to improve

Day event with California

Surveying the Near-Earth

ability the to make decisions

Academy of Science.

Object Population” describing

on potential asteroid threats.

Spectrum.

2016

optimization design. 9


In June 2012, B612 announced the Sentinel Space Telescope project because at the time there were no funded prospects for large telescopes that could fully address the problem of finding asteroids larger than 140 meters. Since then, private donors have enabled B612 and Ball Aerospace to model and verify the Sentinel Mission performance and advance our scientific understanding of how telescopes like Sentinel would perform under realistic circumstances. Efforts with Sentinel also helped catalyze progress in the field by increasing the pressure for federal support. Since 2015, there have been two major developments. First, LSST received full federal government funding and is slated to begin operations in 2022. Second, the NASA’s proposed NEOCam infrared space telescope mission has been selected as a finalist by the NASA Discovery Program, competing to win selection for flight, with a final decision to be made at the end of 2016 or early 2017. B612 has publicly stated its support for NASA to select NEOCam for funding. With regards to Sentinel, B612 plans to publish our findings so our work can serve as a design reference mission for others interested in advancing infrared space telescopes. B612 is now investigating new and potentially much less expensive technologies to help solve the still unresolved issue of detecting asteroids <140 meters which are vastly more numerous than asteroids larger than 140 meters yet still capable of great destruction. This technology, called synthetic tracking, is described later in this report.

3 million asteroids 30–140m diameter 1,000,000

To Be Determined

NUMBER OF ASTEROIDS

30,000 asteroids 140m–1km diameter

100,000

Primarily LSST & NEOCam 2008–2030 (estimated completion)

10,000

1,000 asteroids 1km+ diameter Space Guard Survey

100

1998–2010 (completed)

30m

100m

1km

DIAMETER OF ASTEROID

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SENTINEL MISSION

10km


HOW WILL WE KNOW WHICH ASTEROIDS ARE REAL THREATS THAT REQUIRE ACTION? AND, HOW WILL WE MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS ABOUT THOSE THREATS?

INTRODUCING ADAM The Asteroid Decision Analysis Machine or ADAM is a new B612 project that will provide analytical tools needed to help world leaders, scientists and citizens interpret, understand, and manage the unprecedented flood of asteroid discoveries expected within the coming decade. ADAM will provide theoretical analysis to understand asteroid deflection scenarios, as well as tools to analyze specific asteroid threat cases. Advancements and New Challenges Since the the founding of B612 in 2002, the planetary defense community has grown substantially and the number of telescopes capable of mapping Near Earth Objects (NEOs) has increased. Today there are hundreds of scientists around the world working to protect the Earth from asteroid impacts. Paradoxically, these advances have lead to a new set of challenges. The new and vastly improved capability to track asteroids and to know in advance of potentially threatening NEOs means that we will increasingly be faced with decisions of whether or not to mount an actual asteroid

There is so far no systematic examination of the potentially hazardous population to identifying cases that need extra attention early for a successful deflection campaign, should one become necessary. SMALL BODIES ASSESSMENT GROUP (NASA ADVISORY GROUP)

deflection campaign. The current discovery rate of asteroids is about 30 per week. In a few years, when the discovery rate of asteroids is thousands of asteroids per week, we must ask ourselves, how will we know which asteroids are real threats that require action? How will we make informed decisions about those threats?

INTRODUCING ADAM

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Risk Assessment, Deflection and Geopolitical Concerns Once an asteroid is discovered, an initial best fit orbit is calculated. Asteroids whose orbital tracks intersect the Earth’s orbital track have a possibility of eventually impacting Earth. The planetary defense community must ask whether or not action needs to be taken to mount an asteroid deflection campaign. Through ADAM, B612 will investigate the variety and number of asteroid decision cases

An asteroid impact would be a natural disaster on a scale that is hard to imagine. Unlike catastrophic volcanic eruptions or earthquakes, an asteroid impact is preventable. Humankind’s first step is finding the devils in the dark. Let’s get going. BILL NYE, ASTEROID DAY 100X SIGNATORY

and will attempt to identify common elements that will inform our future decision-making process. While

tools

to

analyze

deflection

scenarios

exist today, they are limited in scope and only in the hands of a small number of researchers. A fundamental planetary defense challenge of the next decade is how to ensure that the decisionmaking process is open, informed, and methodical. When the scientific analysis is complete, we will

then ensure that the international community is informed and empowered to take part in the inevitable decision-making process of protecting against asteroid impacts. After the analysis of an individual asteroid is completed, the decision on whether or not to launch an asteroid deflection campaign remains complex because such a decision involves political as well as technical factors. Different countries will have unique political, social, and economic motivations and constraints, and will weigh these factors differently. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) at the United Nations is being set up to address these issues, although their work is still in its infancy.

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INTRODUCING ADAM


The canyons of Arizona from the International Space Station, by Ed Lu

A goal of ADAM is to develop a long term robust solution to the challenge of asteroid threat analysis by making our analysis tools open to the planetary defense community. In this way, the community will be able to analyze and understand asteroid threats in a way that they currently cannot independently do. Ultimately, this will lead to better decision making because the various members of the community will be better informed. Long term, because the capability to understand asteroid impact threats will be distributed, we will be more effective at determining deflection scenarios. We will work with the planetary defense community to define and build useful analysis tools and will ensure there is open access to the raw observational data upon which these analyses will be built. ADAM will be carried out in three phases over the next several years:

PHASE 1

PHASE 2

PHASE 3

Build and test basic asteroid threat analysis tools

Use software tools and build theoretical models to better understand impact uncertainty and deflection options and implications

Make the software tools widely accessible to the planetary defense community

User Community and Public Education A critical part of this work will be to inform and educate policy makers and the public on the meaning of asteroid threats. A whole new vocabulary surrounding asteroid threats will need to be made, analogous to the way that weather forecasters have been able to present hurricane predictions. This will require extensive efforts to engage the public over a number of years.

INTRODUCING ADAM

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SYNTHETIC TRACKING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Advancements in Telescope Technology Over the last year, B612 has supported a development project with colleagues at Caltech on a new technology called synthetic tracking for improving the capability of telescopes to discover small asteroids. The problem is that the smaller the asteroid, the closer it must be to the telescope in order to be seen. And the closer a moving object is to a telescope, the faster it transits across the field of view, resulting in a smearing of the image. Smaller asteroids are therefore even more difficult to discover because this smearing of their images makes them harder to spot against the background sky.

A constellation of such small telescopes can provide significantly better NEO tracking capability at significantly less cost than other options currently being considered. DR. ED LU, B612 CEO

Synthetic tracking uses extremely high fast data processing to enable motion compensation of moving objects, such as asteroids, in which you do not initially know the location or velocity of the still undiscovered object. This allows telescopes to take longer exposures without being subject to the reduction in sensitivity caused by the smearing of the asteroid images.

While this work is still in its early stages, we have already shown that it has great promise. We have been able to observe asteroids from a small ground based telescope that would not have been detectable without synthetic tracking. Most importantly, this opens up the possibility of using much smaller (and therefore much less expensive) telescopes than previously thought needed in the search for NEOs. In fact, a telescope capable of detecting small asteroids could be mounted on a relatively simple and inexpensive satellite. The cost of such a small satellite (SmallSat) should be roughly a hundred times less expensive than the large telescopes such as Sentinel or NEOCam needed to do a survey of >140 meter asteroids. We have already done a preliminary analysis showing that several of these small synthetic tracking satellites deployed as a constellation in Solar orbit could track the great majority of asteroids as small as Tunguska (45 meters). Before such a constellation can be considered however, it is necessary to first demonstrate the full synthetic tracking capability in space (not just on the ground).

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SYNTHETIC TRACKING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT


A project to catalog asteroids smaller than 140 meters using synthetic tracking could be carried out in four phases:

PHASE 1

PHASE 2

PHASE 3

PHASE 4

Feasibility Study (complete)

Demonstration using data gathered in space (in work)

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) pathfinder mission

Solar orbit constellation

Phase One: Feasibility Study In the first phase of this work, we: â€˘â€ˆ Showed that a constellation of fewer than eight SmallSats equipped with 15 cm synthetic tracking telescopes can find >70% of NEOs larger than 45 meters in <six years using existing and relatively inexpensive technology. The following figure shows the results of computations of asteroid detection performance for varying telescope size, number and orbit.

SYNTHETIC TRACKING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

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•  Successfully implemented the synthetic tracking algorithm in hardware and showed it has sufficient computational speed to process a 4K x 4K detector with a 10 second frame rate. •  Demonstrated synthetic tracking in post-processing on images taken on a ground based telescope and used this to observe NEOs that would not have been discoverable by that telescope without motion compensation. The middle photo below shows an asteroid detected using synthetic tracking that is not visible in the raw image on the left.

Phase Two: Demonstration Using Data Gathered in Space Because there are differences in observing asteroids from the ground and from in space, our next step is to demonstrate synthetic tracking on data gathered in space. In the fall of 2016 we plan to turn around an operating Earth mapping satellite to point towards deep space to observe a known asteroid. We will transmit the data to the ground, and apply the synthetic tracking algorithms to the data set to detect the asteroid.

Photo of the Sinai Peninsula and the Nile delta, by Ed Lu from the International Space Station

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SYNTHETIC TRACKING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT


The idea is to raise awareness of, not only the dangers of asteroids, but also the fact that we have solutions in hand to find dangerous asteroids and do something about it. TOM JONES, ASTRONAUT, B612 STRATEGIC ADVISOR, ASTEROID DAY EXPERT PANEL MEMBER


A Global Effort B612 is a founding partner and major supporter of Asteroid Day, acknowledged on June 30th of every year with asteroid experts, astronomers, astronauts and the general public participating in events across the globe. Through this effort, the scientific community comes together to share research and educate the broader public.

ASSOCIATION OF SPACE EXPLORERS

This year we were pleased to host Asteroid Day co-founder Grig Richters and three Asteroid Day summer interns at the B612 headquarters. The Asteroid Day team worked alongside the B612 Crew in the weeks leading up to the event on June 30th. There were a number of high profile press pieces this year, including an OpEd in the Guardian reiterating why we must stay vigilant for hazardous asteroid impacts. The OpEd was co-written by astronaut and ASE member Tom Jones; Brian May, Astrophysicist and guitarist from QUEEN; and B612 co-founder and B612 Board Member Clark Chapman.

(Left to right): Ed Lu with Asteroid Day guest; Jennifer Arriaga and Bob Daniel; Hillary Aiken, Manuel Bäurle, Jennifer Arriaga, Danica Remy, Thomas Katucki and Grig Richters

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ASTEROID DAY


Asteroid Day Premier Event in San Francisco For the second year, B612 and California Academy of Sciences teamed up for one of the world’s premier Asteroid Day events in San Francisco featuring a day of speakers and a night of asteroid-themed NightLife. The highlights of the day included presentations from renowned asteroid experts including Dr. Clark Chapman, planetary scientist, B612 Board Member and Asteroid Day Expert Panel member; Dr. Lynne Jones, Performance Scientist for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope; Geoff Notkin, host of the Science Channel’s Meteorite Men and the STEM Journals; and Scott Manley, astronogamer, YouTube personality and Kerbal Space Program aficionado. California Academy’s incredible planetarium show, Incoming!, was played throughout the day and into the evening. Incoming! is narrated by George Takei and features B612’s technical expertise, along with dozens of other science advisors.

“ It was important to me to sign the 100X declaration because I believe so strongly in the need for people to be aware of asteroids. Not only aware of the dangers but of the good things that we can learn from asteroids. What we can learn and what we could possibly achieve. There are a lot of things that asteroids bring to us in the way of knowledge and to have more and more people looking and studying is important.” CAROLYN SHOEMAKER, ASTRONOMER, CO-DISCOVERER OF COMET SHOEMAKER–LEVY 9 AND ASTEROID DAY 100X SIGNATORY

“ The Committee endorsed a recommendation for the global observance of an international asteroid day annually on 30 June, to be proclaimed by the General Assembly at its 71st session later this year. An international asteroid day will raise public awareness of the asteroid impact hazard and inform the public of global communication measures in case of a credible near-Earth object threat.” UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR OUTER SPACE AFFAIRS (UNOOSA), PRESS RELEASE FROM JUNE 21, 2016

“ Our goal is to dedicate one day each year to learn about asteroids, the origins of our universe, and to support the resources necessary to see, track and deflect dangerous asteroids from Earth’s orbital path. Asteroids are a natural disaster we know how to prevent.” BRIAN MAY, QUEEN GUITARIST, ASTEROID DAY CO-FOUNDER AND B612 STRATEGIC ADVISOR

ASTEROID DAY

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THE FOUNDING CIRCLE ANONYMOUS x 6

Alan Eustace

ANONYMOUS LEADERSHIP GIFT x 2

Sasha Galitsky

Bill Anders

Eliot Gillum

Geoffrey Baehr

Glaser Progress Foundation

William K. Bowes, Jr. Foundation

Dane Glasgow

Brian Burton and James Mercer, Broken

Steve and Julie Grimm

Bells Don and Alison Carlson Vinton and Sigrid Cerf Y(Lmc) Chapman Emily and David Corrigan

Garrett Gruener and Amy Slater VK Hsu & Sons Foundation Ltd. James D. and Justin Jameson Margaret Jonsson Family Foundation Steve Jurvetson*

Esther Dyson

Top row (left to right): David and Emily Corrigan; Jill Glasgow, Tami Prock and Eliot Gillium; Grig Richters, Diane Murphy, Christopher Payne and Dane Glasgow. Bottom row: Lea Ver and Željko Ivezić; B612 scientific expedition into the base of Arizona’s Meteor Crater; Robert Vaughn and Ed Lu

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FOUNDING CIRCLE


Dominik Kaiser

Shervin Pishevar

Steve Krausz

The Peggy Rawls Family Fund

Vladas Lasas

Ray Rothrock

James Leszczenski

Edwin Sahakian

David Liddle and Ruthann Quindlen

Rusty Schweickart and Nancy Ramsey

Suzanna Mak and Asa Denton

Tim Trueman

Greg McAdoo

Robert C. and Fallon B. Vaughn

Scott McGregor and Laurie Girand

Ben Wheeler

Matt Mullenweg

Yishan Wong and Kimberly Algeri-Wong

Diane Murphy

Matthew Wyndowe

Peter Norvig *Leadership Gift ($1M–$5M)

Top row (left to right): Amy and Scott Manley; Katie Dyer, Jonny Dyer, Danica Remy, and Steve Krausz; Steve Jurvetson, Erik Charlton, and Greg McAdoo. Bottom row: Clark Chapman and Y Chapman with guest; Ben Wheeler, Asteroid Day donor reception in San Francisco

FOUNDING CIRCLE

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We have donors from 44 countries.

DONOR HONOR ROLL All Gifts $500 – $24,999, from January 1, 2015 – August 31, 2016

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Rick Armstrong

Glen Knowles

Rolf Schreiber

Atlantis Research Foundation

Grea Korting

Randolph Schweickart

Andrew Baruch

Antonio Leding

Douglas Simpkinson

Dillon and Alex Bly

Emmett and Carol MacCorkle

Chris Sirico

Richard Bowen

Septimiu Marzac

Kevin Stafford

Daniel Ceperley

Massimo Mascaro

RIck Stawicki

Jim Chervenak

John McAuley

Michael Thompson

John Conery

Mizuki McGrath

Jan Magne Tjensvold

Jonathan Dagle

Michael Meek

James Utz

Albert Ender

John Kenneth Menges Jr.

Varian Family Fund

Ray Erikson

Matt Guerreiro and Christina Mohr

Alexandra Vedernikova

Ryan Falor

Kieran Morrill

James and Cynthia Walker

Joseph L. Fischer

Markus Michael Mueller

Rogers Weed

Fontana Foundation

Jonathan Nagin

Magnus Wentzel

David and Kristine Gale

Dan Nelson

David Wygant

Patrick D. Garvey

Dave Newbower

Michael S. Gendler and Jessica A.

Vincent Pawlowski

Teich

Christopher Payne

Arthur Gleckler and Kristine Kelly

Dirk Pranke

Brett Grossman

Christian Principi

Jeremy Hylton

The Purdy Family

Robert Jedicke

Martha Reynolds

Frederick Johnson

Michael Ritter

Gregory Kicska

Gale Rogers

DONOR HONOR ROLL

Photo of the Himalayas, by Ed Lu from the International Space Station



B612 is dedicated to protecting the earth from asteroid impacts. TECHNICAL TEAM

OPERATIONS TEAM

ASTEROID DAY TEAM

Dr. Ed Lu Chief Executive Officer

Danica Remy Chief Operations Officer

Brian May, Co-founder

Dr. Marc Buie Mission Scientist

Hillary Aiken Chief Relationship Officer

John Casani, Chair Technical Advisors

Maria Bernasconi Finance Manager

Dr. G. Scott Hubbard Program Architect

Daniel de Zeeuw Data Systems Manager

Dr. Harold Reitsema Mission Director

Kirk Kirschenbauer Director of Operations

John Troeltzsch Sentinel Program Manager

Diane Murphy VP Public Relations

Danica Remy, Co-founder Grig Richters, Co-founder Rusty Schweickart, Co-founder Jennifer Arriaga, Intern Santa Cruz, California Manuel Bäuerle, Intern Randegg, Germany Thomas Katucki, Intern Norwich, Vermont

GOVERNING BOARD

Dr. David Liddle Chair

HEADQUARTERED IN SILICON VALLEY

Geoffrey Baehr Dr. Clark Chapman Dr. Dan Durda Dr. Ed Lu CEO & Co-founder

MAILING ADDRESS

20 Sunnyside Ave, Suite 427 Mill Valley, CA 94941 United States Phone 650-644-4539 Fax 650-618-1493 www.b612foundation.org

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