Jennifer Mancini

After an extensive search process led by members of the Senior Board, I am pleased to announce that on July 3rd Jennifer Mancini officially took the helm as Executive Officer of the HBA of West Florida. For the past eight years, Jennifer worked in Business Development at Hypower, Inc. in Ft. Lauderdale, one of the largest electrical contractors in the southeastern United States. Hypower’s clients include general contractors, public and private utilities, and developers. During her time at Hypower, Jennifer also managed legislative affairs and served on both the Association of General Contractors (AGC) and Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) legislative committees. For over 20 years, she has successfully lobbied legislators on behalf of the construction industry at the local, state, and national level. Prior to her position at Hypower, Jennifer was the Executive Director of the National Utility Contractors Association of South Florida (NUCA) from 2002-2015. NUCA is a non-profit trade association representing underground utility contractors, material and equipment suppliers and other industry stakeholders. Jennifer’s construction industry experience, association management skills, and relationships in local and state government made her an exceptional choice for the role of our Executive Officer. Please join me in welcoming her to the HBA of West Florida and thank you for being a part of the next chapter in the story of this great association.

GDP Growth Is Stronger Than Expected in the 2nd Quarter

The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace in the second quarter of 2023, fueled by consumer and government spending.

The second quarter data from the GDP report suggests that inflation is cooling. The GDP price index rose 2.2% for the second quarter, down from a 4.1% increase in the first quarter. It marks the slowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2020. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price Index, capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior, rose 2.6% in the second quarter, down from a 4.1% increase in the first quarter.

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023, following a 2% gain in the first quarter. This quarter’s growth was above NAHB’s forecast of a 1.4% increase. (Figure 1)

This quarter’s increase reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, government spending, and private inventory investment, partially offset by decreases in exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting increases in both services and goods. While expenditures on services increased 2.1% at an annual rate, goods spending increased 0.7% at an annual rate, led by gasoline and other energy goods (+13.1%).

Meanwhile, federal government spending increased 0.9% in the second quarter, while state and local government spending rose 3.6%, reflecting increases in compensation of state and local government employees and gross investment in structures.

Nonresidential fixed investment increased 7.7% in the second quarter, up from a 0.6% increase in the first quarter. The quarter’s increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment (+10.8%), structures (+9.7%), and intellectual property products (+3.9%). Additionally, residential fixed investment (RFI) decreased 4.2% in the second quarter. This was the ninth consecutive quarter for which RFI subtracted from the headline growth rate for overall GDP. Within residential fixed investment, single-family structures rose 0.8% at an annual rate, multifamily structures rose 1.5% and other structures (specifically brokers’ commissions) decreased 8.9%. (Figure 2)

Canadian wildfires raised air pollution

Lumber prices could be next

By Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press/AP

Canadian wildfire smoke continues to blow over much of the U.S., raising air pollution to harmful levels for construction workers. Now, the impact of the fires is likely to raise U.S. lumber prices, too.

Canada’s 2023 wildfire season has been blazing, burning the largest amount of land ever recorded in a single year, said Marcy Nicholson, senior editor at Forest Economic Advisors, a Littleton, Massachusetts- based wood and timber product database, in a report on the Canadian wildfires.

“Unusually warm and dry conditions in many parts of [Canada] have provided fuel for blazes,” said Nicholson. “This has forced thousands of residents to evacuate, caused a scattering of mills to close temporarily and altered some harvest plans.”

By late June, with several months of wildfire season left to go, the burned area has already exceeded the full-year record made in 1995, according to Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre data. Canada’s typical wildfire season peaks in July and fizzles out by October, added Nicholson.

That’s bad news for contractors dependent on lumber availability and affordability. The reason why is that Canada supplies approximately 80% of U.S softwood lumber imports, according to Natural demand for residential properties resulting from current high costs, may result in a slight and temporary increase in lumber prices.”

Alberta and Quebec hardest hit.

The Canadian provinces of Alberta in the west and Quebec in the east have been hardest hit thus far, with roughly 3.8 million acres and more than 3.5 million acres burnt, respectively, according to CIFFC data. Together, they represent more than 40% of Canada’s annual softwood lumber shipments.

That’s a massive hit on Canada’s softwood lumber production, softwood lumber shipments and timber harvest volume, said David Logan, senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders.

Through the first three months of 2023, Alberta and Quebec accounted for a combined 44% of total shipments and 45% of total production, said Logan. That means wildfires in those provinces are affecting a meaningful chunk of Canada’s harvest.

Resources Canada, the Canadian government department responsible for natural resources.

“The enormity of the fires has given lumber prices a boost, though it is too soon to estimate how much of the affected area includes harvestable timber and how much will catch fire in the months to come,” said Nicholson. “It is also too early to know how much of this will need to be quickly salvaged. Some of the largest wildfires are far north, limiting firefighting efforts and opportunities to utilize the burned timber.”

Lumber prices fell 10% in the past year, according to the latest Associated Builders and Contractors producer price index. That provided much-needed relief for contractors, as lumber prices skyrocketed at the onset of the pandemic and remain 26.5% higher than in February 2020. After price drops for lumber in recent months, including a minimal 0.4% dip in June, economists expect that trajectory to reverse course again, said Mark Fergus, executive vice president of Cumming Group, a Seattle-based project management and cost consulting firm, in an email interview.

“Whilst the overall impact on resources is still being assessed, it is expected that the short-term impact of the wildfires will temporarily increase costs,” said Fergus. “The fires, combined with a drop in

“Alberta’s share of pretty much any metric related to softwood lumber has been growing rather quickly in recent years,” said Logan. “If Alberta can’t get back to the trend it was on — whether by natural disaster or public policy — it would bode poorly for lumber prices.

” With several months of wildfire season remaining, Natural Resources Canada forecasts weather conditions to get worse before they turn better with the approach of winter later this year. NRC expects fire weather severity in July and August will be above average for the vast majority of Canada, said Nicholson.

“Weather conditions in Canada are on track to fuel more wildfires throughout the summer,” said Nicholson. “It’s a jaw-dropping forecast that, at times, paints a huge amount of the Canadian map red.” related illnesses and/or injuries. The toolkit provides key insights on preventing and identifying heat stress and includes downloadable resources and videos available in English and Spanish.

Heat stress can be particularly dangerous because most residential construction professionals are used to working in the heat of summer. But acclimatization within a season is crucial to staying safe. If the normal high temperatures in your area are in the high 80s and a heat wave suddenly brings readings in the high 90s, the first few days are going to be the most dangerous because of lack of acclimatization.