Debt Ceiling Briefing Book by The Public Notice

OCT

2013

a publication brought to you by Bankrupting America

whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s inside 1

state of spending page 6

History of the debt limit page 10

reaching the debt limit page 14

Frequently asked questions page 22

more work to be done page 24

These days, spending fights are routine in Washington, and this lack of spending discipline has led to an increase in our national debt. Congress and the president sharply increased federal deficit spending in response to the U.S. recession, but even four years after the official end of the recession, government spending remains near record highs and unemployment is stuck above seven percent. Getting America back on the path to fiscal responsibility should be a top priority for lawmakers as Congress debates increasing the debt ceiling and a bill to keep the federal government running. In this briefing book, weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll introduce readers to the current federal spending environment, review the history of the debt limit, and look at what will happen now that weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve reached our statutory spending limit.

1 STATE OF SPENDING The Current Budget Deficit In May 2013, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its updated budget outlook for the next decade. The report estimated the budget deficit for fiscal year 2013 would reach $642 billion, a 40 percent reduction from the previous year’s deficit.1 The most recent financial statement from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which calculated the budget deficit for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2013, showed a gap of $755 billion, higher than the deficit the CBO estimated for all of fiscal year 2013. However, the federal government tends to run a surplus rather than a deficit in September (in fiscal year 2012, it ran a budget surplus of $75 billion), so that figure could drop. The Treasury report for September – the final month in the fiscal year – is scheduled to be released on Oct. 10, 2013 but may be delayed due to the federal government shutdown.2 A 40 percent reduction in the budget deficit is a significant change for a single year, and the decline reversed a four-year trend that saw the federal government run annual deficits in excess of $1 trillion. But that does not mean the news was good for taxpayers or that the federal government had become more fiscally responsible. According to the CBO, the decline in the projected deficit was due to “a boost in estimated revenues as well as from expected payments to the Treasury by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”3 The sequester spending cuts totaled just $64 billion this year, so while they contributed to a smaller deficit, they were not the primary driver.4 Instead, Congress relied on taxpayers to make up for their excessive spending. The CBO also recently released its annual report on the nation’s long-term fiscal outlook and found that the small gains from deficit reduction in the near-term are likely to be reversed due to the rising costs of mandatory spending programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.5

Sequester Effect on Federal Spending

In fact, in 2011, one of the original authors of the sequester bill testified before Congress that the sequester was not intended to take effect. Rather, the threat of the sequester was expected to “force compromise and action.”

Sequestration is a series of automatic, across-theboard spending reductions. The current sequester was triggered as an enforcement tool under the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA).6 Lawmakers had hoped the threat of the sequester would be enough to compel them to agree to a package of more specific, longterm cuts. In fact, in 2011, one of the original authors of the sequester bill testified before Congress that the sequester was not intended to take effect. Rather, the threat of the sequester was expected to “force compromise and action.”7 The BCA had established a joint committee, made up of a bipartisan group of members of Congress, who were tasked with finding $1.2 trillion in spending reductions over the next nine years. These cuts were to be specific and targeted; in other words, lawmakers had control over the programs to which they would apply.8 The committee failed to agree on a spending reduction plan and the automatic sequester cuts – which, instead, applied equally to all non-exempt discretionary spending programs – were triggered.9 The American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA) delayed the sequester until Mar. 1, 2013 and resulted in a total spending reduction of almost $85 billion for FY2013. These cuts were equally divided between defense and nondefense discretionary spending.10

Funding The Government Congress must pass 12 separate spending bills to fund the government at the start of a new fiscal year (Oct. 1). If all bills are not signed into law, then Congress passes a stopgap funding measure, also known as a continuing resolution (CR).11 For the first time in 17 years, the U.S. government began a partial shutdown process as Congress remained divided over a CR. The House passed a third proposal to fund the government hours before a midnight deadline on Sept. 30, which included a provision to delay the enforcement of the individual mandate included in President Obamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s health care law.12 The Senate rejected the bill, and shortly before midnight the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released a memo to all executive departments and agencies instructing them to execute plans for an orderly shutdown due to the absence of appropriations.13

Congress must pass 12 separate spending bills to fund the government at the start of a new fiscal year.

2 HISTORY OF THE DEBT LIMIT The debt ceiling is the legal limit on borrowing by the federal government. In some form or another, Congress has always placed restrictions on the federal debt. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (CRS), “Limitations on federal debt have helped Congress assert its constitutional powers of the purse, of taxation, and the initiation of war.” 14 While Congress has always had a restriction on federal debt, the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 set up an aggregate limit on federal debt, according to the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget.15 Prior to World War I, Congress generally would specify how funds could be borrowed, such as limiting the rate of interest on a bond. Over the course of time, these specific restrictions faded away. By 1939, a bill was enacted that eliminated specific restrictions and set a debt ceiling.16 Since March 1962, Congress has passed 77 separate measures that have altered the debt limit. After 1993, only three out of the 18 laws passed included ties to deficit reduction: The Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 and the Budget Control Act of 2011. The last deficit reduction measure (Budget Control Act of 2011) was also the largest debt ceiling increase. As we mentioned before, the law established a committee that would find $1.2 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years in exchange for a $2.1 trillion increase in the debt limit.17 Over the past decade, the debt limit has been raised 12 times and suspended once – in February 2013 – when the country reached the debt ceiling of $16.394 trillion.18 Currently, following the reinstatement of the debt limit, total public debt subject to the limit has reached nearly $16.7 trillion.19

Laws Altering the Debt Limit

only 3 laws passed included ties to deficit reduction

Our Debt Economy Economy Sized Sized

Over the last few years, the United States has been accumulating debt at an alarming rate, with gross federal debt even surpassing the size of our entire economy. This astonishing level of debt has not been seen since the World War II era.

DEBT SUBJECT TO THE LIMIT

the maximum amount of money the Government is allowed to borrow without receiving additio $ TRILLION

% of GDP

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

SOURCES // The Debt Limit: History And Recent Increases, Congressional Research Service, 9/25/13 / Monthly Statement Of The Public Debt, Departm Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Bureau Of Economic Analysis, Accessed 9/6/13

The Debt Subject To The Limit Is Currently 100.19% Of GDP $16,667,900,000,000 GDP at the end of Q2 2013 $16,699,396,000,000 Debt Subject to the Limit at the end of Q2 2013

Debt Added

Ë&#x2021;

onal authority from Congress

ment Of The Treasury, Accessed 9/6/13

$0.28 Trillion

$1.75 Trillion

$1.39 Trillion

$1.56 Trillion

$4.93 Trillion

$6.13 Trillion

3 REACHING THE debt LIMIT the Expected Date To Reach The Limit In January 2013, the federal government reached its debt limit of $16.394 trillion. However, the next month Congress passed the “No Budget, No Pay” Act, which suspended the limit until May 18. On May 19, the limit was reset – to about $16.7 trillion – to reflect borrowing that occurred between February and May 18. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) explained: The No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013 suspended the debt ceiling from February 4, 2013, through May 18, 2013. The act also specified that the amount of borrowing that occurred during that period should be added to the previous debt limit of $16.394 trillion. On May 19, the limit was reset to reflect the cumulative borrowing through May 18 and now stands at $16.699 trillion.20 Since the debt limit was restored on May 19, the Department of the Treasury has been using “extraordinary measures” in order to keep federal borrowing under $16.699 trillion. On May 17, 2013, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew predicted the government had about $260 billion in borrowing room.21 According to the Treasury Department, it will run out of that room in October. In an August letter to House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, Secretary Lew said, “The United States will have reached the limit of its borrowing authority and Treasury would be left to fund the government with only the cash we have on hand on any given day.”22 On Sept. 25, Secretary Lew wrote the speaker again stating that the government’s extraordinary measures would be exhausted

“The United States will have reached the limit of its borrowing authority and Treasury would be left to fund the government with only the cash we have on hand on any given day.”

on Oct. 17. On this date, Lew noted, “[The] Treasury would have only approximately $30 billion to meet our country’s commitments. This amount would be far short of net expenditures on certain days, which can be as high as $60 billion.”23 Previously, Secretary Lew had told the speaker that at some point in the middle of October the government would have only $50 billion to fund the government – an amount insufficient to cover expenses. While the letter states that President Obama is open to negotiations over the level of government spending, he remains firm on his stance not to negotiate on whether to raise the debt ceiling.24 On Oct. 1, Secretary Lew announced that The Treasury had begun using its final extraordinary measures to extend the nation’s borrowing room. In the letter addressed to the House speaker, Secretary Lew informed Congress that “there are no other legal and prudent options to extend the nation’s borrowing authority” and that the Oct. 17 deadline would not be changed.25 The final measures used were to delay reinvestments into the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), a tool for buying and selling foreign currencies, as well as to enter into a debt swap with the Federal Financing Bank and the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund.26

Extraordinary Measures Extraordinary measures are essentially a “toolbox” of different techniques the Treasury Department can use in order to keep the debt under its statutory limit. By delaying federal payments to civil service retirement funds, state and local government securities, and other retirement funds, the department frees up additional room under the limit so the country does not exceed its borrowing capacity.

Have Already Used

G fund

Suspended The Issuance Of State

Declared A “Debt Issuance

Delayed Reinvestments Of The

And Local Government Treasury

Suspension Period”

Federal Employees G Fund

Securities

Now Unavailable

$ $ $

Delayed Reinvestments To The

Suspending the Issuance of

Exchange Stabilization Fund

Savings Bonds to the Public

Selling Assets (such as gold)

The Treasury Department Has Already Used The Following Four Measures Suspended The Issuance Of State And Local Government Treasury Securities (SLGS) SLGS are issued to help states comply with federal tax laws that concern the issuance of tax-exempt bonds. This measure does not actually create any additional room under that debt limit, but conserves the room that is left. On May 15, 2013, the Treasury Department announced it would suspend the sale of SLGS until further notice.27 Secretary Lew predicted the measure would conserve $4 billion to $17 billion per month.28 Declared A â&#x20AC;&#x153;Debt Issuance Suspension Periodâ&#x20AC;? Once the United States reaches its debt limit, the Treasury Department has the ability to announce a Debt Issuance Suspension Period (DISP) for a specific period of time. Under a DISP, the department can delay new investments into the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF), as well as redeem existing investments in the CSRDF and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund (PSRHBF). By delaying new investments into the CSRDF, the Treasury Department creates $6.4 billion in additional borrowing room each month the DISP remains in place. Under the second option, the department can redeem approximately $58 billion in CSRDF funds that mature on June 30 and would otherwise be reinvested into the fund, plus an interest payment of $16 billion. Upon redeeming these existing investments, the department creates $74 billion in additional borrowing room under the debt limit. The same applies to the PSRHBF, which would create an additional $5 billion in borrowing space. Redeeming existing investments is a one-time measure only available at the end of June.29

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Treasury Department began this suspension on May 20, 2013 with a projected end date of Aug. 2, 2013.30 On Aug. 2, Secretary Lew wrote House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, to inform him this period would last through Oct. 11, 2013, the last day Congress was to be in session before the Columbus Day recess.31

G fund

Delayed Reinvestments Of The Federal Employees G Fund The G Fund is a government securities investment fund that is a part of the Federal Employeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan. It acts similar to a 401(k) plan. The balance matures daily and is ordinarily reinvested into the fund. However, the Treasury Department has the ability to suspend reinvestment and use the funds to create additional borrowing room. On May 31, 2013, the Treasury Department announced that it would suspend payments into the fund (retirees and current employees would not be affected). The department predicted this measure would create $160 billion in borrowing room, making it the largest of the extraordinary measures. Like the DISP, this fund must be fully recuperated including interest after the suspension period or the debt limit is raised.32 Delay Reinvestments To The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) One of the final measures the Treasury Department used was to delay reinvestments into the ESF. The primary purpose of the ESF is to buy and sell foreign currencies. A portion of the ESF is held in U.S. dollars and comes from Treasury-issued securities, which increase the debt. These securities also mature daily and are usually reinvested into the fund. If needed, the Treasury Department can suspend reinvestments into the fund, a move that creates additional borrowing room under the debt limit. The department has estimated this measure would create $23 billion in additional borrowing room. 33

Past Extraordinary Measures Used That Are Now Unavailable: Some tools Congress has used in the past are either outdated or are no longer effective in creating additional borrowing room.

$ $ $

In previous debt ceiling crises, Congress has had the ability to postpone the date the debt limit was reached by suspending the issuance of savings bonds to the public. Secretary Lew has said using this measure now would not create any additional borrowing room, it would only stop the issuance of new debt. In the past, the Treasury Department has also called in cash deposits held at banks. The department, due to a law passed in 2004, can no longer keep track of these balances. In the past, the U.S. has also been able to sell assets such as gold in order to create additional borrowing room. Today, most of the assets acquired after the financial crisis have been sold or would bring in insufficient revenue to stay below the limit.34

Extraordinary Measures Have To Be Paid Back By suspending or stopping the issuance of federal payments, the Treasury Department creates room under the limit to make payments for programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. However, once the limit is raised again, the department must completely restore all pension funds, such as the CSRDF and the G Fund. In short, this fact means that when the limit is raised, the Treasury Department will be obligated to replace the amount of funds plus interest used during the delays.35

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Payments When the limit is raised, the Treasury Department will be obligated to replace the amount of funds plus interest used during the delays, a move that will immediately add to the debt.

Direct payments to the Treasury Department made by government-backed home loan associations Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have also allowed the U.S. to stay under the borrowing limit. After the financial crisis of 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac entered an agreement with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) where the government agreed to take financial control over the governmentsponsored enterprises (GSEs).36 In return for a $187.5 billion government bailout, Fannie and Freddie handed over to the Treasury Department a large amount of senior preferred stock. This action essentially gave the government ownership of the enterprises. When Fannie and Freddie became profitable again in 2012 due to an improving housing market and fewer delinquent loans, the preferred stock began to pay dividends back to the Treasury Department.37 By the end of September, the associations will have sent the department $146 billion back in dividends, nearly two-thirds of the payments being made this year.38

Extraordinary Measures Have Become Standard Practice The use of extraordinary measures was intended for extraordinary situations. According to the Committee For A Responsible Budget, extraordinary measures like the ones described above were used in 1996, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011 and 2012. Instead of responsibly paying down the debt, Congress has used tools meant only for â&#x20AC;&#x153;extraordinaryâ&#x20AC;? circumstances to mask the true size of the debt.39

Future Debt Projections Even if Congress agrees on a plan to raise the debt ceiling, the national debt is projected to keep rising. Under current law, gross national debt will exceed $25 trillion in 10 years.40 What’s more, federal debt held by the public – the portion of the national debt held by all investors outside of the federal government – is currently 73 percent of the size of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and will reach 100 percent of GDP in 25 years if Washington stays on the same spending trajectory.41 That path “would ultimately be unsustainable,” according to the CBO.42

A high debt-to-gdp ratio can lead to

Reduced private investment and reduced individual saving.

Higher interest payments on the debt that would lead to higher taxes or a reduction in government benefits and services.

Inability of policymakers to use tax and spending policy to respond to economic conditions.

Increased likelihood of a sudden fiscal crisis.

4 FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS Will Washington Default If It Does Not Raise The Debt Limit? Not necessarily. Some say that, like a person with credit card debt, our government won’t technically default on its debt so long as it can continue to pay the interest payments on that debt. Last year, the nation spent $223 billion on interest.44 However, CRS has noted “no general statutory definition of the term ‘default’ exists.” In other words, there is disagreement about what amounts to a default.45 Because of this, some Democrats and the White House claim that if the government fails to make any payment for any federal program—regardless if it is interest or not—it would be technically a default.46

What Happens If The Debt Ceiling Isn’t Raised? It’s not clear. Some Republicans say that the Treasury Department has the ability to prioritize payments in a way that Washington only spends what it takes in for revenue. The Treasury Department says it doesn’t have this power, but there is nothing in the law that prohibits the department from doing so.47 Regardless, in January, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that not raising the debt ceiling would be “very, very costly to our economy.”48 The Treasury Department also released a report on the potentially “catastrophic” effects of not raising the debt ceiling, warning that “credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, U.S. interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse.” 49

If The Debt Ceiling Isn’t Raised, Will Payments For Social Security Stop? In the past, President Obama has said if the debt ceiling were not raised, then Social Security checks and veterans’ benefits would be delayed. However, as was mentioned above, some believe the Treasury Department has the ability to prioritize payments in a way that would at least mean Social Security benefits would get paid.50

What Will Happen If Washington Continues To Spend At Its Current Rate? The money the federal government spends isn’t free. Every dollar the government spends must be taken from the private sector through taxation, inflation, or borrowing. Right now, the government finances its overspending through borrowing and amassing massive debt that will eventually have negative consequences. For example: > Policymakers may contemplate major tax hikes and/or increasing the money supply to pay our debt with less valuable money. > Tax increases would hamper economic recovery and hinder prospects of future growth. > Increasing the money supply leads to higher prices and makes American families’ savings less valuable.51

Does Raising The Debt Ceiling Pay Our Bills Or Pay For New Spending? Basically, an increase in the federal debt limit allows the federal government to spend and borrow more. Some of the spending would cover funding commitments the federal government has already made. Social Security benefits would fall under this category. But the spending allowed under the increase in the debt limit could fund entirely new spending as well.

5 MORE WORK TO BE DONE Our nation is now nearly $17 trillion in debt with a long-term outlook that is marked by growing deficits and a burgeoning national debt. As Congress debates raising the debt ceiling and funding government operations, it should also make the tough decisions necessary to get the country back on the path to fiscal responsibility. Amidst warnings that our current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable and would increase the likelihood of fiscal crisis, the CBO has also cautioned that the longer we wait to grapple with the growing federal debt, the harder it will be to put the budget back on a sustainable course.52 Rather than continuing to kick the can down the road, Congress should confront the lack of spending discipline in Washington and work to secure our fiscal future.

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Letter From Treasury Secretary Jack Lew To House Speaker John Boehner, Department Of The Treasury, 9/25/13.

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Treasury Suspends Sales Of State And Local Government Series Securities, Department Of The Treasury, 5/15/13.

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Federal Debt And The Statutory Limit: June 2013, Congressional Budget Office, 6/11/13.

Letter From Treasury Secretary Jack Lew To House Speaker John Boehner, Department Of The Treasury, 8/2/13.

Letter From Treasury Secretary Jack Lew To House Speaker John Boehner, Department Of The Treasury, 5/31/13.

Letter From Treasury Secretary Jack Lew To House Speaker John Boehner, Department Of The Treasury, 5/17/13.

Nathan Vardi, “Why Hedge Funds Suing The Government Over Fannie And Freddie Have A Bad Case,” Forbes, 7/15/13.

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Nick Timiraos, “Five Years Later, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Remain Unfinished Business,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/6/13.

Debt Ceiling Watch 2013, The Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget, 9/25/13.

Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 To 2023, Congressional Budget Office, 5/14/13, Table 5.

The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook, Congressional Budget Office, 9/17/13, P.8.

Economic Effects Of Reducing The Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled To Occur In 2013, Congressional Budget Office, 5/22/12.

Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 To 2023, Congressional Budget Office, 5/14/13, Table 2.

Reaching The Debt Limit: Background And Potential Effects On Government Operations, Congressional Research Service, 9/19/13, P.16.

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The Potential Macroeconomic Effect Of Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship, Department Of The Treasury, 10/3/13

Jim Kuhnhenn And Andrew Taylor, “Obama: Debt Limit Fight Imperils Elderly’s Checks,” Associated Press, 1/14/13.

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