A thesis investigating the UK’s transforming zero-carbon infrastructure focusing particular attention towards our retrofit program; with specific interest in scope 3 emissions with Rare Earth Elements and their use in green technologies.
University of Newcastle Upon Tyne 2013-2014 A dissertation presented to the Department of Architecture, Newcastle University submitted in partial fulfilment of the degree of BA (Hons) in Architecture 2014 Statement of Originality
This dissertation is an original piece of work which is made available for copying with permission of the Head of the Department of Architecture i
Acknowledgments I wish firstly to show my gratitude to my tutor, Dr Carlos Calderon for his guidance and resourcefulness during the course of writing this thesis. Turvey PLC for allowing me to be involved with Granary Court. And finally, my parents and friends who supported me throughout, without the help of the mentioned, the final outcome would not have been possible.
ii
This thesis explores and investigates the transforming UK energy landscape, with particular
Abstract
Abstract
focus on the retrofitting of UK houses to less than 80% of the 1990 Green House Gas levels. With
critical assessment into the complexities of renewable energy programs and the policies which extends to wider context than the UK border, its implications socially, environmentally and economically.
A multi-method research strategy involving a combination of research approaches from
primary data, interviews, case studies, journals, books and articles in order to investigate through reasoned analysis and evidence based calculations.
This thesis investigates the transforming UK energy and residential landscape while assessing
whether green renewable energies are the key components to realise this. In order to achieve a
balanced and thorough evaluation of the current policies, to discuss the most appropriate method of retrofitting project in the UK.
iii
Contents
Part:
1
Introduction
Part:
2
UK Energy Landscape 2.0 Transforming the UK Landscape 2.1 Carbon Efficiency
Part:
3
Upstream Emissions
3.0 Upstream Emissions
Part:
4
Residential Sector
5
Conclusion
4.0 UK Residential Sector
3.1 Rare Earth Elements
4.1 End-User Emissions
3.2 Life Cycle Analysis
4.2 EnerPHit Standards
2.2 Energy Security
Part:
4.3 Granary Court
2.3 Energy Density 2.4 Mid Hants 2.5 UK progress towards targets
1.
4.
22.
iv
37.
48.
CERA
Cambridge Energy Research Associates
EMR
Electricity Market Reform
DESPREI EnerPHit
Draft of Emission Standard of Pollutants from Rare Earths Industry ‘Quality-Approved Energy Retrofit with Passive House Components1’ as
defined from the Passive House Institute website.
EPC
Energy Performance Certificate
Greenwash
Green washing is the overstating of the environmentally conscious attributes of a firm’s offering and the understating of the negative environmental attributes for the firm’s benefit.
GWh
KWh
LCA
Gigawatt-hour 109Wh
Kilowatt-hour 103Wh
Life Cycle Assessment
Mboe
Million barrels of oil equivalent
MtCO2e
Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
Mt
Million tonnes - 106 t
Mtoe
Mega tonnes of oil equivalent
NdFeB
Neodymium-Iron-Boron
REE
Rare Earth Element
MWh
PV
REO RO
Scope-1 Emissions
Scope-2 Emissions
Scope-3 Emissions Tailing Lakes Ttoe
RMI
Megawatt-hour 106Wh
Photovoltaic cells Rare Earth Oxide
Renewable Obligation
Direct Emissions of production
Indirect Emissions from consumption of purchased electricity
Indirect Emissions that result from outsourced activities
Man-made lakes of left over or waste material from mining, often containing acidic and radioactive materials. Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent
Repair Maintenance Improvement
Keywords. Energy Security. Energy landscape. Upstream Emission. Decomposition Analysis. Life Cycle Assessment. Rare Earth Elements. Retrofits. EnerPHit. Greenwash. v
List of terms
List of terms
Introduction
Introduction. Statement of Aim 1. Evaluate the current approach to reducing CO2 levels within the UK. 2. Conduct a Life Cycle Assessment of the renewable energy systems.
3. The implications upon the residential sector in relation to the changing energy-landscape. 4. Assess the most applicable approach to retrofitting a project in the South East of England.
Despite intense pressure and demand for a renewable revolution, results demonstrate their
performance is still in its infancy in relation to hydrocarbons, this thesis will investigate the
mitigations behind their progress.
This dissertation will seek to analyse the transforming UK energy landscape with particular
note to reducing the carbon emissions of the housing stock by 80% with its implications
socially, environmentally and economically.
By bringing more reasoned analysis, more evidence based calculations and less theoretical
thought to the green revolution, by applying a balanced discussion and factual results, assess
whether targets are valid and achievable, while evaluating the appropriateness of the implemented policies.
Current legislation of the Climate Change Act 2008 legally obliges the UK and other G8 members
to commit to ambitious targets to reduce its Green House Gases emissions by at least 80% of the 1990 base year 1. Renewable, zero-carbon technologies are seen to be pivotal in satisfying these targets. Through studies by critical material experts Purnell and Hurst the complexities of Rare Earth Elements; crucial ingredients to wind and solar energies; will be assessed, with research
into the upstream emissions and the impact upon the UK.
The results of these studies will dictate the process taken for the retrofitting of Granary Court,
an old grain drier in South Warnborough, England, with residential potential. Planning pending. To low energy efficiency, which satisfies the UK’s targets. The policies and provision of energy
will be determined by the outcomes of this thesis.
1 Legislation.gov.uk. Climate Change Act 2008. (Online) Available from: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/part/1/crossheading/the-target-for-2050
1
Breakdown of our carbon target
The UK has set a carbon budget, as part of several legislations: -
The Climate Change Act states ‘It is the duty of the Secretary of State to ensure that the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than the 1990 baseline. 2’ The target is seen as a minimum with scope for being increased.
Figure 1Cover Page: Are Renewable Energies the Solution? Figure 2 UK's target in relation to 1990 base level
With some simple calculations; with all things being equal; analyse how much CO2 each
individual emits. However in order to reduce this figure to 80% of the 1990 levels, the CO2 target heavily relies on a new low-carbon economy with infrastructure being the primary driver; ranging from power generation, buildings and transport.
Equation 1 Total CO2 emissions per capita
2 Ibid 1
2
Through policies and promises, financial incentives and subsidies the UK hopes to meet its
midway 2020 targets. 15% of all the UK energy must come from renewables 3. According to the 2013 Governmental Digest of UK Energy, renewables contributed to 11.3% of our electricity
generation, demonstrating progress. However reviews show the UK is still reliant on
hydrocarbons, with coal and gas producing 67% of our electricity 4. The UK is pursuing an energy revolution throughout its sectors, from transport to residential; over the next few
chapters a mix-method strategy will investigate this transformation with particular focus on the UK’s residential industry.
3 Parry S. In China, the true cost of Britain's clean, green wind power experiment : Pollution on a disastrous scale. The Daily Mail. 26 Jan 2011. 4 Department Of Energy & Climate Change. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2012. (PDF) UK Gov.; 2013. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225045/statistics_pre ss_notice_2013.pdf. p6.
3
The UK energy sector has built a $2.5trillion USD per year economy almost entirely from
hydrocarbons 5, if the UK does adapt to renewable sources of energy up to the region of 30% it
will take most of the 21st Century, whilst requiring trillions of pounds in new investments. Evidence demonstrates any regulation severe and mandatory enough to achieve the 80% reduction would cripple the economy in every sector and the jobs that go with it.
Just 4% of green energy professionals think we have a ‘good’ or a ‘very good’ chance of achieving the 2050 target 6
Looking at the BP Statistical Review 2013, for the UK alone, we consume 203.6million tonnes of
oil equivalent for all types of primary energy. By converting this to barrels of oil it is possible to
calculate the total consumption. 1.45 billion barrels of oil equivalent a year 7. £70.89 a barrel
£101.5bn a year in consumption
1.45bn barrels
Equation 2 Value of UK Primary Energy 2013
Of the 203.6Mtoe for primary energy consumption, only 8.4Mtoe is from renewables 8, or
60Mboe a year. 60million, multiplied by price per barrel, equates to £4.3bn a year in consumption. £6bn a year is given as subsidies results in a -£1.7bn deficit. Consumption of Renewable energy
Renewable Subsidies
£6bn
£4.3bn
Figure 3 Illustrating the Renewable Deficit
The International Energy Agency expects between now and 2030 that ‘$5.5 trillion will be spent on renewable energy projects.’ 9
5 Bryce R. Power hungry. New York, NY: PublicAffairs; 2010.p3. 6 Prouse S. Four per cent believe UK can reach 2020 targets. (Online) 18 March. 2013 Available from: http://www.resource.uk.com/article/UK/Four_cent_believe_UK_can_reach_2020_targets2858#.UtvTBpLFLqS 7 Using the current value of a barrel of oil ($110 US$, converted to £70.89 – as of Aug 29 2013). 8 BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. (PDF) London:; 2014. Available from: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statisticalreview/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf. p40
4
Energy Landscape
Part 2.0 Transforming the UK Energy landscape
2.1 Carbon Efficiency Of the 203.6Mtoe consumed only 8.4Mtoe is a derivative of renewables 10. This equates to only
4.1% of energy being consumed stemming from renewables. How is this so considering earlier
11.3% of our electricity generation is from renewables? This 64% reduction is due to the high
level of energy wasted. One issue that is preventing the mass provision of renewable energy’s is its inability to be stored, with large amounts of energy being wasted through transport and
conversion losses. This flow-chart from the Government illustrates that 60% of our energy is wasted 11.
Figure 4 Electricity Flow Chart 2012 Twh
9 International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2008. (PDF) Paris: IEA Publications.; 2008. Available from: http://www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/WEO2008.pdf. 10 Ibid 11 567.5TWh/916TWh = 61%
5
However the following flow-chart compares the waste of each renewable system.
Figure 5 Renewable Flow Chart 2012. Ttoe
Adding all the renewable inputs equates to 10,015 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent 12. The
actual utilised output equates to 3,548Ttoe. Only 35% of all renewable energy is useful. Whilst
the amount wasted through conversion losses is 3,979Ttoe. Transporting the energy from wind turbines, located in remote isolated areas to areas of high-density results in high transmission losses, while infusing into the national grid, requires the construction of high-voltage transmission lines 13.
Over the past 300 years the UK has invested trillions of pounds into energy infrastructure; from power-stations to wires in order to produce the energy that we need to keep not only our
economy afloat but also our lifestyles. Scientists extensively agreed that new forms of energy production must be found, however there is debate whether renewable technologies such as wind energy and solar are viable and offer enough energy security to power our economy.
12 Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent - Ttoe 13Bryce R. Power hungry. New York, NY: PublicAffairs; 2010. p.85-88
6
2.2 Energy Security Wind turbines only perform when wind speeds are a certain velocity, (according to the size and type of turbine). In the UK this results in an average capacity output of 30% of the time, this
often falls to as low as 10% 14. Spells of bad weather can prevent generation, whilst prohibiting maintenance. This produces a question, what happens when the wind is not blowing? The
intermittent pattern of wind will always be unreliable; the University of Edinburgh discovered
96% of wind power generation must be reinforced with dispatchable generation to match
power demand 15. This means fossil fuels. Cambridge-Energy-Research-Associates stated that ‘wind power is more expensive than conventional power generation because wind’s
intermittent production patterns need to be augmented with dispatchable generators’ 16.
When the UK encroaches the 30% target, it still needs to back-up the gap for when the wind
levels are minimal, as a result increasing Britain’s total capacity from 76GW to 120GW 17. The UK
has already relied on the back-up. Ofgem has warned that within two years the UK’s spare
capacity may decrease from 14% to 2% with our reliance on wind 18. Research from Oxford University demonstrates the volatile nature.
Figure 6 Electricity Generation by Fuel Type MW on 25/09/12
14 Sikimic S. World's biggest wind farm boss tells us 2050 targets are unachievable. (Online) 21 June. 2013 Available from: http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/economic/worlds-biggestwind-farm-boss-tells-us-2050-targets-are-unachievable/5785.article 15The University Of Edinburgh. Matching Renewable Electricity with Demand. (PDF) Edinburgh:; 2006. Available from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/112589/0027358.pdf. p.59 16 Makovich L, Diorio P, Giuffre D. Renewable Portfolio Standards: Getting Ahead of Themselves?. CERA. 2008;: 15. Available from: http:/www.ihs.com/products/cera/energy-report.aspx?id=106591658. p.15. 17 Parry S. In China, the true cost of Britain's clean, green wind power experiment : Pollution on a disastrous scale. The Daily Mail. 26 Jan 2011. 18 Webb T. Free power deal to reduce chances of blackouts. The Times. 1 Aug 2013.
7
Figure 6 illustrates the UK’s electricity generation by type. During the energy peak on 25th
September 2012 wind provided 10.56% of the total energy. However, there were large samples
of days where the mind was minimal. Comparing the point of 16:00; 23rd October 2012, although demand was higher, wind only generated 0.55% of the total energy supply 19. 25 Sept 2012
23rd October 2012
21:30
16:00
Total Electricity Generation
3913MW
37021MW
238MW
43121MW
% Total Generated by Wind
10.56%
0.55%
Wind MW
Table 1 Percentage of Electricity generated From Wind comparing 25/08/12 and 23/09/12
This quantitative data demonstrates the need for a structured framework of a diverse and
reliable low-carbon technology mix at a number of scales to ensure long-term energy security. A
published report by RWE validates the issue of energy security of wind by displaying the
electricity produced at 17:00 on 22/08/13 at various wind farms across Britain.
Knabs Ridge took 86KW from the national
grid 20. This process of importing off the National Grid is called Parasitic Consumption. The lack of energy security of wind power, at current
technological development, highlights the
dangers of overreliance on one energy source.
The Electricity Market Reform outlines the need
for a diverse mix and long-term investment in
order to create a landscape that is sustainable; economically, socially and environmentally.
Figure 7 Results of RWE reports
19 Oxford University. GB Electricity Generation By Fuel Type. (Online) Available from: http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~dcurtis/NETA.html 20 Mendick R. The wind farms that generate enough power to make a few cups of tea. The Telegraph. 24 Aug 2013.
8
20 December 2010 : Britain’s coldest winter on record
UK current total maximum capacity = 10,034 MW 21
As a direct result of the cold, heating demand soared. Peak demand on the 20th December was
over 60,000MW 22. Maximum capacity for wind turbines was 5,891MW. 10% of the peak demand figure.
Yet on December 20th, because wind speeds were negligible, wind energy contributed an
insignificant 140MW. Despite billions of pounds in investments, Britain’s wind-turbine fleet was producing only 2.43% of its own capacity. This report claims wind produced ‘little more than
0.2% of a possible 5% of the nation’s electricity’ 23. Consequently energy demand had to rely on coal power-plants in order to prevent a black out.
As the UK builds 30GW of wind farms and becomes more reliant on renewables and the
dependence on fossil fuels diminishing. CERA states ‘to provide reliable capacity every MW of wind capacity needs to be matched with a MW of dispatchable energy 24’. This means diesel
generators hooked-up remotely to the National Grid to provide instant energy whilst for more
populated urban areas; coal-fired power-plants. Plants cannot be switched on-and-off when the
wind blows, they require being on 24-7 and fully staffed. As a result the largest inclusion that needs to be included in any Life Cycle Assessment is that at all times a wind turbine must be
reinforced by, currently, a hydrocarbon burning power-plant.
In order to successfully transform our energy landscape a selection of energy sources will be utilised, a series of rigorous long-term policies need to be employed that are sustainable and consistent.
"On solar panels, this Government did substantially reduce the feed-in-tariffs [a type of subsidy] to make sure this industry was not over-subsidised. All these subsidies end up on consumer bills and we should think very carefully about that. 25" David Cameron
21 Renewableuk.com. RenewableUK | UK Wind Energy Database (UKWED). (Online) Available from: http://www.renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/wind-energy/uk-wind-energy-database/ 22 Publications.parliament.uk. House of Lords - Economic Affairs - Written Evidence. (Online) Available from: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/195/195we57.htm 23 Mason R. Wind farms produced 'practically no electricity' during Britain's cold snap. The Telegraph. 11 Jan 2010. 24 Mackay D. Sustainable energy--without the hot air. Cambridge, England: UIT; 2009. Makovich L, Diorio P, Giuffre D. Renewable Portfolio Standards: Getting Ahead of Themselves?. CERA. 2008;: 15. Available from: http:/www.ihs.com/products/cera/energy-report.aspx?id=106591658 p.15. 25 Mason, R. 2013 David Cameron hints at further cuts to green energy subsidies. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/10115983/David-Cameron-hints-at-further-cuts-to-greenenergy-subsidies.html
9
26
‘Cost Del Sol’
It is not just the UK who are switching on to switch-off renewables. Spain cut subsidies in July 2013 for the 3rd time since 2012. Their policies were misguided and economically wasteful,
benefits were weak. Subsidies cut. Costs remain.
In July 2013 the Economist investigated the troubling times ahead for Spain and their push for solar power. In 2007 due to China’s low export price of solar panels (explained in Part 3), the
Spanish government increased the price it paid individuals for solar power at 12x the market price in order to stimulate demand 26. For a short period it did. In 2007 Spain had 11MWinstalled capacity; by 2013 it increased 180x to 1,950MW 27.
However the government did not want to cap its capacity, seeing it only as a positive.
Conversely China began to raise its price of PV to control market share, sending Spain’s costs
soaring from €193m in 2007 fortyfold to €8.1bn in 2012 28.
The government was unwilling to betray its green revolution and to pass these higher charges onto consumers. Therefore as a direct result as China’s PV export prices increased and Spain’s
demand grew, the balance between revenues from solar energy bought from consumers to the balance of trade by 2013, was a deficit of €26bn, rising €5bn a year. 3% of the Spanish GDP.
This was crippling to the economy. In July however the government accepted the mistake and cut subsidies by a further €2.7bn on top of the €5bn between 2011-13. This has removed
incentive for a company or a household to invest in solar panels. Angel Miralda owns a relatively small 320 panel solar farm, he states his investment totalled €500,000 when the economy was
booming but now at the darkest times with the financial security cut, he cannot afford to repay the loans. He is not the only one. The Economist believes outstanding loans now total €30bn.
Although the Spanish government cut its losses, the costs for its people remain. This chastening ordeal is a very likely realisation for the UK and its quest for Zero-Carbon energy and homes.
Has the UK implemented the correct long-term policies for long sustained economic growth for the energy landscape?
26 + Quote Economist, The. The cost del sol. The Economist. 2013;: p.57. 27 ibid 28 ibid
10
2.3 Energy Density It is not solely wind and solar energy that are involved in the UK’s zero-carbon landscape
revolution. Biomass is emerging as another renewable source which the UK is turning to as a
possible solution. Biomass is an exemplar of renewable energy, with high-energy security it’s able to operate continuously, in contrast to wind and solar which rely on the vagaries of the
weather. It can be utilised at a range of scales, which is a reason why it is gaining popularity at
the micro-generation level within individual houses; offering a very viable option for the inclusion in the Granary Court project.
The Government predicts by 2020 11% of our generating capacity will be from burning wood 29. Forecasts show exponential development is needed with the BP Statistical Review 2013
claiming only 323Ttoe of the UK’s energy produced comes from bio-sources 30. The government
is investing billions of pounds as an incentive for power-stations to convert their boilers to
biomass. Drax Powerstation, UK’s single largest emitter of CO2 has begun to convert one of its coal boilers to wood. Whilst receiving £1bn in subsidies for the coming years 31.
31
29 Ridley M. Making electricity from burning wood is bad for the economy and the environment. The Times. 20 June 2013. 30 BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. (PDF) London:; 2014. Available from: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statisticalreview/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf. 31 + Quote Harrabin R. Renewable energy: Burning US trees in UK power stations. (Online) 28 May. 2013 Available from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22630815
11
2.4 Mid Hants One of the proposals to qualify for EnerPHit for the Granary Court, South Warnborough project is the implementation of a biomass micro-generation system. At the onset of the proposal,
biomass had obvious benefits, with the typical cost of the system and implementation at ÂŁ6,000
for retrofits per house with a life span of 25 years. It would satisfy the demands for the EnerPHit criteria while accessing the fuel, the wood chips, would be readily available due to the proximity to the Mid Hants biomass storage facility only 1.7miles away.
On several site visits, a vast amount of information was accumulated about biomass and its
viability as an energy proposal for the project. Despite the public perception that the majority of burned wood would be wastewood, that would otherwise decompose, through interviews with
an assembly of the employees at Mid Hants, I discovered that a small minority of the wood
might be; but due to the surge in governmental and media pressure for biomass production
more wood is required than could be attained from waste. This results in virgin wood being grown entirely for biomass.
Images from Google Earth Street View from 2011 showed rolling hills of virgin wood chips.
Figure 8 & Figure 9 Images of Mid Hants from Google Street View from 2011
12
On arriving in June 2013, the scene could not have been more different.
Figure 10 & Figure 11 Mid Hants. June 2013.
13
The flowing hills of wood chip had all been disposed of and flattened. The diggers once used for filling up lorries on their way to Slough Heat and Power – which has been experimenting with
biomass since the Renewable Obligation began in 2002 - are now being packed up into lorries.
Slough H&P once burning 150,000t of wood and producing 80MW a year is now running at reduced capacity. Interviewing a worker at Mid Hants, a key supplier of wood chips to the
Slough plant, he disclosed that the market for biomass is becoming uneconomical, with the
government cutting subsidies and the difficulty of production causing biomass to fall quietly out of favour.
He explained how the ageing fluidised-bed biomass burners used at Slough require wood chips of moisture content of 50% or lower and which must not exceed 50mm in size. He deliberated on how there is not enough supply in the UK to satisfy demand with the wood chips being imported from North American forests.
The UK government did not have burning American wood in mind when they authorised 20% of our energy should come from renewables. If we look at the material flow analysis of
biomass 14m hectares of foreign forestry was felled to produce
the 52Mt of biomass for our energy 32. Considering the total land size of the UK is 24m hectares 33. That equates to nearly 60% of the UK’s land entirely devoted to biomass. Trees do not grow
back in a year; they take decades. Whilst if the majority of our land is used for biomass; there would be a lack of land for our livestock let alone houses.
Figure 12 current wood supply from foreign forestry would equate to 60% of UK’s land
The material flow analysis of biomass is far more comprehensive than we are lead to believe. Mid Hants website states it uses western red cedar for its wood pellets, native of British
Columbia, North America. The wood used is untreated, virgin wood. A review by the BBC discovered the wood was not from forests that needed thinning or fallen trees, but from
America’s finest forests growing solely for the biomass market 34. The wood therefore travels
6,900km from the source to Mid Hants, calculations can be made over the third scope emissions of the freight transport.
32 Weighell T. The global land use impact of the United Kingdom's biomass consumption. (PDF) JNCC.; 2011. Available from: http://jncc.defra.gov.uk/pdf/Biomass.pdf. 33 Forestry.gov.uk. Statistics - Releases - Woodland area, planting & restocking. (Online) Available from: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/infd-7rehtc 34 Harrabin R. Renewable energy: Burning US trees in UK power stations. (Online) 28 May. 2013 Available from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22630815
14
Using the data from Biomass Energy Centre transport from a Heavy-Duty-Vehicle produces 92.0g CO2 per tonne-km 35.
Equation 3 CO2 Emissions from Transporting between US & UK
Despite this, Biomass remains a very favourable alternative in response to the carbon savings compared to coal, with similar transportation figures. Yet with a 1/3rd of CO2 emissions 36.
As the interview with the employees progressed they declared how the biomass boiler had
become uneconomically viable, requiring constant maintenance. While the supply needed to be
of certain moisture levels and dimensions resulting in a large quantity of cast-offs. Mid Hants began producing at a loss. Their operation started to cease. The market demonstrated that biomass was not a lasting process.
35 Biomassenergycentre.org.uk. Estimated carbon dioxide emissions for freight transport. (Online) Available from: http://www.biomassenergycentre.org.uk/portal/page?_pageid=75,20043&_dad=portal&_schema=PORT AL 36 Harrabin R. Renewable energy: Burning US trees in UK power stations. (Online) 28 May. 2013 Available from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22630815
15
Returning to Mid Hants in September 2013 a different story is told. The wood hills are rolling
again. Yet on closer inspection the wood has changed. Wood chips no longer dominate. In their
place is recycled waste-wood.
Figure 13 Mid Hants. September 2013. Operational
In an interview with Richard Chewter, one of Mid Hants’ office employees he explained the
transformation. ‘The UK did not have enough burners to make the production profitable after
Slough Heat & Power went down for maintenance’. Without the subsidies production couldn’t continue. As a result the recycled wood now in stock is destined for Sweden.
Figure 14 Waste Wood Destined for Sweden
This highlights the need for a policy that is consistent and delivers long term results, and therefore creates some doubt upon its appropriateness as a system for Granary Court.
16
2.5 UK progress towards targets The intention of this investigation is not to negate any progress or transformation, rather
however, it is to demonstrate how damaging the wrong policy can be, through balanced and
careful analysis, coupled with calculated evidence to demonstrate how the right strategy for the
boom and the bust will ensure our energy’s future prosperity and survival, scaling from the UK
as a whole to the individual homes. While incorrect policies will have inimical impacts
economically, socially and environmentally.
Although on first inspection of Britain’s progress we have had some success. Predictions
demonstrate flaws in our target strategy.
Figure 15 UK's CO2 Emission Targets 1990, 2012, 2050(e)
Assuming our population grows to the predicted level of 77million by 2050.
Simple calculations can demonstrate the predicted maximum emissions each person is allowed to make. Ignoring power-plants for now and assuming all things are equal. Therefore :-
Equation 4 CO2 Emissions in 2050 per Capita
17
To put that into perspective 1.4billion people in the world do not have access to electricity, the
table below demonstrates our target in relation to some of the world’s most industrial primitive nations.
Cuba 2.36tonnes of CO2 per person Syria - 2.65tonnes of CO2 per person North Korea - 3.18tonnes of CO2 per person UK - 2050 Target - 1.537tonnesof CO2 per person
Table 2 UK 2050 CO2 emissions in relation to some of the World's most industrially primitive nations
Figure 16 Infographic showing UK was on target for the 2010 Kyoto Targets
18
Assessing the CO2 emission levels from 1990-2012. Britain’s overall CO2 emission levels have
decreased by 19% 37. Illustrating that Britain is on target to achieve the 2020 midway target of
carbon emissions.
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
% Change 90-12
Total CO2Mt
592
554
553
554
531
481
498
459
479
-19%
Table 3 CO2 Emissions 1990-2012 with % Change
1990
2012
592MtCO2e
479MtCO2e
Figure 17 Showing reduction in CO2 from 1990-2012
37 Department Of Energy & Climate Change. 2012 UK greenhouse gas emissions, provisional figures and 2011 UK greenhouse gas emissions, final figures by fuel type and end-user. (PDF) UK Government.; 2013. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/193414/280313_ghg_ national_statistics_release_2012_provisional.pdf.
19
Million Tonnes CO2
700 600 500
Scattergraph of CO2 Trend
400 300 200
100 1985
1990
1995
2000 Year
2005
2010
2015
Figure 18 Scattergraph Illustrating Reduction in CO2 1990-2012. MtCO2e
However extending the current trend to 2050; the UK misses the 118.4Mt CO2 target, but does
reduce CO2 by 50% of 1990 levels. This does however illustrate and ignore unforeseen
circumstances for simplicity. Economies of scale is excluded from this scenario, assuming the
efficiency of coal-fired power-plants improves and more renewable technologies are
implemented CO2 emissions will decrease. However there will be a point where efficiency and productivity will actually begin to decline at a slower rate, where efficiency cannot improve
without reducing productivity.
Denotes 2050 Desired CO2 level of 118.4MtCO2e
Figure 19 Scattergraph with Trend Extended to 2050. MtCO2e
20
Figure 20 UK CO2 emissions by sector, 1990-2012. MtCO2e
The 19% reduction in emissions has been accompanied by a decrease in overall energy
consumption over the period of 3%. However fig20 illustrates a large drop in emissions from
2008, coinciding with the economic downturn. As we recover and rebuild sustained economic growth we shall use more energy, as such emissions will increase. The Department of Energy
and Climate notes this change with the latest results showing a 4.5% increase in UK net
emissions from the 2011 figure. Total GHG emissions CO2 emissions
2011
2012
Change
458.6
479.1
+4.5%
555.6MtCO2e
571.6
+3.5%
Table 4 Showing Economic Recovery Effect on Emissions between 2011-12 & Percentage Change. MtCO2e
Will this trend continue as our economy recovers? Academics believe we should not isolate our
targets to our borders; it’s a global issue with the next chapter investigating the effect of Scope3 emissions. Examining the manufacturing of renewable energies with focus on Rare Earth
Elements in particular.
21
‘The life cycle assessment is both a mapping and an evaluation of the potential impact of the wind turbine on the external environment throughout its lifetime 38’ The emission epidemic is not an isolated issue, there are no borders, it is a global issue that cannot and should not be identified by nations, rather the globe as an entirety.
There are certain loopholes within the Kyoto Protocol that allows countries to hide their true
emissions. It ignores values of international trade. 94% of the goods shipped into the UK are
Upstream Emissions
Part 3.0 Upstream Emissions
transported on diesel-powered vehicles 39. UK emissions overlook foreign manufacturing and
transportation. Reports claim the EU exports ⅓ of its CO2 emissions 40. This becomes
comprehensible considering the UK has shifted from its primary industry of coal into the
tertiary, service industry. Nations can pass emissions on to other countries. Further underlining
the unresolved concern of global accountability and responsibility.
Richard Black demonstrates it as ‘A Briton can purchase goods made In China, and get the
benefits of these goods, but the emissions remain in China. 41’ - Substituting goods for wind
turbines. -A Briton could purchase Wind Turbines made in China and get the ‘Zero-Carbon’
benefits of the wind farms, but the emissions are assigned to China - imported goods account for a further 4.3 tonnes CO2 per-person42 on the average 7.58t per-person.
Equation 5 Scope 3 Emissions included to UK CO2 Emissions
38 Vestas Wind Turbines - A great advantage to the environment. (Press release) 12 April 2005 2005. 39 Bennett S. Encyclopedia of Energy. Delhi: Global Media; 2007. 40 Black R. EU 'Imports' a third of its carbon emissions. (Online) 9 March. 2010 Available from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8557461.stm 41 ibid 42 Sample I. UK import emissions are the highest in Europe, figures show. (Online) 8 March. 2010 Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/mar/08/carbon-emissionscarbonfootprints
22
To evaluate, this could be argued as also valid with 1990, but even still the 80% reduction level will still be a target with the revised figures, notwithstanding 20 years ago the UK provided
much of its own coal from its own mines, without relying on imported energy and goods. To
address this problem a case of border-carbon-tax should be considered, although such is very
difficult to calculate and implement.
Renewable energies are viewed as pivotal for Britain’s targets. As the residential sector
contributes 15.4% of the economy’s CO2 emissions, there are increased efforts for zero-carbon
renovations which encourages the utilisation of renewable energy sources. As the UK public has an emotional attachment to the framework of renewable and zero-carbon technologies, with 77% of 21,000 people stating the UK should ‘emphasise more’ with wind and solar energy 43,
wind turbines and solar panels are at the forefront but rely on Rare Earth Elements to function.
3.1 Rare Earth Elements
Clarity matters. In order to appropriately address a problem, definitions must be clarified and a
common set of terms agreed.
Figure 21 Periodic Table with REE Highlighted.
Rare Earth Elements are a family of 17 of the periodic elements. Their atomic numbers are 57-
71. The Rare Earth title is somewhat of a misnomer, they are in fact very common, with over
43 Worldpublicopinion.org. World Publics Strongly Favor Requiring More Wind and Solar Energy, More Efficiency, Even If It Increases Costs - World Public Opinion. (Online) Available from: http://worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/btenvironmentra/570.php?lb=&pnt=570&nid=&id=
23
100Mt of proven reserves 44. Neodymium, the REE that research concentrates on is more
common than lead, nickel or cobalt 45.
Cindy Hurst a rare-earth analyst writes ‘their concentrations range from ten to a few hundred parts per million by weight’ 46. Locating a supply that is economically viable provides an issue.
Conversely there are supplies in the UK; US; South Africa and Australia. However these are all
dwarfed by China. The Bayan Obo mine of the Baotou region produces half of the entire world’s
supply47.
REE have been instrumental in the turn of the information revolution of the 21st Century, their
importance has augmented so rapidly and without many knowing. Their unique chemical and
magnetic properties, have unfathomed benefits in the electronic industry. They are used in televisions, mobile phones; headphones and they are the reason electronic equipment is decreasing in size. However more importantly for this thesis they are vital for Green Technologies. 48
48
44 Baotou National Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone. Rare Earth : An Introduction. (Online) Available from: http://www.rev.cn/en/int.htm 45 Hurst C. China's rare earth elements industry. Washington, D.C.: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security; 2010. 46 Ibid 47 Buchert D. Rare Earths - a Bottleneck for future Wind Turbine Technology?. (PDF) Oko-Institut.; 2011. Available from: http://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1296/2011-421-en.pdf. 48 Lewis L. Crunch looms for green technology as China tightens grip on rare-earth metals. (Online) 28 May. 2009 Available from: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article2182740.ece
24
OLE Lighting. Tb, Y Hybrid Electric Cars. La, Nd Photovoltaic Cells. Pc2Ln Wind Turbine. NdFeB Magnets
Table 5 Applications for Rare Earth Elements
Research has shown the truth behind our green economy is a much darker reality. In order to create the UK’s 5,276 strong fleet of wind-turbines 49 REE must be mined; extracted and
manufactured. All fuelled by coal-fired power-stations. The irony that REE are indispensable for our green technologies is highlighted by the evident environmental damage. China has become the dominant supplier through industrial aggression and little environmental consideration.
The contradiction between ‘green’ REE and their high environmental production costs needs
urgent action. The mining process produces such a high level of by-products the only country
whose environmental laws allow for such exploitation is that of China.
China has fully exploited its position and in 2011 held a 97% monopoly in the market 50. As a consequence a material bottleneck has resulted in the renewable industry. The industry is balancing on an economic, social and environmental knife-edge. Surrounded by economic
uncertainty, incorrect policies and costly subsides whilst battling degrading environments and international conflicts.
49 Renewableuk.com. RenewableUK | UK Wind Energy Database (UKWED). (Online) Available from: http://www.renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/wind-energy/uk-wind-energy-database/ 50 Livingston J. Rising force. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press; 2011
25
Figure 22 Flow Chart showing processes from Ore to Green Energy System
The concentration of rare earth in the ores is very low – 5.14% 51 and must be separated by
hydro-metallurgical processes and acid baths. The waste produced consists of toxic chemicals and radioactive elements such as uranium and thorium.
Jamie Choi an expert on toxics for Greenpeace China says ‘There’s not one step of the rare earth mining process that is not disastrous for the environment 52.
12,000m3 of waste gas
2,000t of Tailing Lakes For every 1t of REE Produced
13kg Dust
8.5kg Flourine
1t of Radioactive Thorium
Figure 23 Every tonne of REE produces vast amounts of waste and toxic chemicals
51 Long K. Principal rare earth elements deposits of the united states-a summary of. (S.l.): Bibliogov; 2013. 52 Parry S. In China, the true cost of Britain's clean, green wind power experiment : Pollution on a disastrous scale. The Daily Mail. 26 Jan 2011.
26
Waste Produced
According to Du Youlu of Baogang’s safety and environmental protection department, ‘seven million tonnes of waste a year was discharged into the (tailing) lake’ 53. While DESPREI has deduced tailings from mining has excessed 150 million tonnes.
As Britain’s fleet of wind-turbines increases and its carbon landscape diminishes, on different
shores the tailing lakes as shown in the image of Bayan Obo get bigger with some stretching to 12km 54. Ma Peng, former Director of the Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute declared ‘the
mining waste is directly discharged into the Yellow River’ 55.
Overall 10 million tonnes of all varieties of wastewater is excreted into the surrounding land
ever year. As fig23 shows for every 1t of REE 1t of radioactive thorium is often dumped directly
into the Yellow River; at a rate of 300m per year 56.
If thorium is ingested, which is likely, being in the water system it causes cancer of the ‘pancreas and lungs, and leukemia.’ 57 This international research puts a heavy strain on the integrity of
the Green Revolution.
53 Parry S. In China, the true cost of Britain's clean, green wind power experiment : Pollution on a disastrous scale. The Daily Mail. 26 Jan 2011. 54 Ibid. 55 China Forbidden News. Earth Minerals Turn Villages to Ruins. (video online) 2012. Available from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGLC59rCCDc 2012 56 Ibid - Ma Peng, former Director of the Baotou Rare Earth Institute. 57 The Guardian. Rare-earth mining in China comes at a heavy cost for local villages. (Online) 7 Aug. 2012 Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/aug/07/china-rare-earth-villagepollution
27
28
Figure 24 Google Earth Image of Bayan Obo Mine, illustrating the tailing lakes, processes and poor environmental standards
China can dominate the market due to the lax governmental regulations. Mines like Bayan Obo
et al can opt out of investing in more environmentally sound processes in order to maintain a
competitive edge, a low price. The issue the UK nurses is the ‘land is owned by the Crown’ 58, so it is not in a company’s or governments right. Whereas in China the land belongs to the
government and not the company, therefore it is not in a firm’s best interest for a REE mine to
seek environmental responsibility and invest a large sum of money on more environmentally sound capital since the government does not offer subsidies or financial incentives. As a
consequence other factories may not invest in environmentally considerate techniques, retain low costs and therefore prices. The environmentally conscious mine will then lose its price competitiveness in the domestic market, let alone the global. This nullifies and deters any
incentive to meet any environmental standards. If we look at the oil industry; there are many suppliers, so if one’s price is too high, buyers are able to locate another seller at a more
competitive rate. In the same way, for a supplier to find a buyer they will need to reduce their price to the value the market places on it. This is not the case in the REE industry.
New environmental Legislation.
Recently however through greater media scrutiny and more public opposition, the Chinese government, pressured by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, have set discharge standards for their atmospheric and water pollutants through the Rare Earths Industry
Development Plan 2009-2015.The industry remains optimistic that these regulations are properly implemented. Hurst raises concerns over whether this is just a front.
Costs of cleaner production.
Using figures released by Hurst allow calculations for how this will affect the mines operation
costs. Based on China’s manufacture of 150,000t REE industry these new environmental costs for each mine would be ¥1.1billion (£117m 59). Hurst calculates ‘additional annual
environmental protection efforts at ¥280million (£29m) 60. Whilst for the new regulations on the discharge on water pollution would add ¥1,500 (£160) for every tonne of REE.
58 Bryce R. Power hungry. New York, NY: PublicAffairs; 2010 p.248 59 At current ¥/£ rates as of Jan 2014-01-10 60 Hurst C. China's rare earth elements industry. Washington, D.C.: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security; 2010. p.23.
29
This will result in higher production costs but also a fall in supply and without governmental
financial assistance the price of REE will rise. The Price of Neodymium spiked from US$30/kg in
Nov 2009 to US$115 in Dec 2012 61. (The price now sits at 98$US 62). This fourfold price increase became an incentive for other mines to enter the market again. Such has happened with Mountain Pass mine in California owned by Molycorp.
Through governmental and private backing Mountain Pass invested $781m to reopen in order to challenge China’s dominance 63. However, despite the heavy investment and tight
environmental laws annual output is currently restricted to 15,000t 64. Nevertheless China’s
surge for environmental regulation will take ‘10 years before China will match our standards’ 65. Which is a similar time scale as Mountain Pass will take to produce at full capacity. Although, recent studies show that even at full capacity Mountain Pass will only capture 15% of the market due to exponential rising demand 66. Cuts to China’s Exports
Figure 25 Flow Chart of Material Bottleneck within the Industry
China has raised export taxes and reduced REE exports from 60,000t in 2007 67 to 30,999 in
2013 68. The UK is a 100% importer of REE, with 1,841t coming from China 69. China outlawed
foreign companies from investing in China’s REE mining sector. Forcing REE dependent firms to relocate their end-product factories to China.
61 Mineralprices.com - The Global Source for Metals Pricing. (Online) Available from: http://www.mineralprices.com. Note, 62 ibid. Last updated 2013-12-10 63 Perkowski J. Behind China's Rare Earth Controversy. (Online) 21 June. 2012 Available from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/06/21/behind-chinas-rare-earth-controversy 64 Schier T. Molycorp ramping up Mountain Pass Mine. (Online) 14 Aug. 2013 Available from: http://www.amm.com/Article/3243568/Molycorp-ramping-up-Mountain-Pass-Mine.html 65 Hilsum L. Chinese pay toxic price for a green world. (Online) 6 Dec. 2009 Available from: http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/article192193.ece 66 Burns S. Rare Earth Price Outlook: Lynas Corp, Molycorp Swaying Market. (Online) 4 June. 2013 Available from: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1479971-rare-earth-price-outlook-lynas-corpmolycorp-swaying-market 67 EP Library. China's export restrictions on rare earth elements. (Online) 6 Aug. 2013 Available from: http://libraryeuroparl.wordpress.com/2013/08/06/chinas-export-restrictions-on-rare-earth-elements 68 Techmetalsresearch.com. The Second Round of Chinese Rare-Earth Export-Quota Allocations for 2013 — Technology Metals Research. (Online) Available from: http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2013/07/thesecond-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2013/ 69 Shuler D. Rare Earths - Facts & Figures. (PDF) Berlin: Oko-Institut.; 2011. Available from: http://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1111/2011-002-en.pdf.
30
Trading from Baotou may have reduced exports of the raw material of REE by 83.3% 70; but they also increased its manufactured exports of REE goods by 91.4% 71. As Fig25 shows China has already dominated the mineral industry and are now extending their manufacturing
dominance; forcing Japanese and European firms who rely on REE to produce wind-turbines or solar panels to relocate to China. Taking their firms’ profits with them.
Solar Panels.
The production of solar panels demonstrates this. The Chinese governments have instructed
firms to seek profit alternate goals, in order to gain market share, willing to lose money in order to dominate. The European Commission found that Chinese solar panels were being sold in the
EU well below the market value, with average dumping margins of 88%, with certain examples of 112.6% 72. By flooding the market European firms, such that of Spanish AleoSolar, could not compete and are priced out. With market competitors removed the Chinese firms are free to drive the price back up to profit making levels. Reasons for Export Quotas
1 2 3 4 5
•Environmental Regulations - Through the 2009-2015 Rare Earth Industry Development Plan •Increasing Domestic Demand - Chinese demand forecast to exceed the average global rate of growth •Smuggling - 15-20% of REE Exports were from illegal mines •Industry Regulation - the Chinese government consolodating smaller mines
•Encouragement of higher value manufacturing investment
-Restricting foreign firms in investing in mining operations, and cutting exports. Foreign firms seen an incentive to move operations to China. Manufacturing Industry is a higher value good. Figure 26 Reasons for Export Quotas
70 Asia News, 2011, China’s Dilemma: How to mine rare earths. China’s dilemma: how to mine rare earths whilst protecting reserves and the environment. http://www.asianews.it/news-en/China%E2%80%99sdilemma-or-how-to-mine-rare-earths-whilst-protecting-reserves-and-the-environment-21039.html 71 Ibid 72 Rapoza K. China Solar Panel Makers Brace for Tougher Times. (Online) 6 April. 2013 Available from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/06/04/china-solar-panel-makers-brace-for-toughertimes/
31
The Life-Cycle Assessment continues at different scales, from the extraction of the REE, to the manufacturing. How much REE goes into renewable technologies? REE are used in the production of Permanent Magnets used in wind-turbines.
3.2 Life Cycle Analysis of Wind
Certain setbacks have been realised while conducting this Life Cycle Assessment, an in-depth
material-flow-analysis for REE is often inhibited due to restricted or inconsistent information
and misconstrued data points. Therefore this is a diluted version which reflects the principles.
However data used for the following calculations derive from the most reliable, with data from wind-turbine manufacturers. Through facts and definitive results we can neutrally assess the life cycle through a balanced and informative perspective.
The use of REE, most notably Neodymium and Dysprosium in permanent magnets for wind
generators is rising exponentially. 20% of global REE production is for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets used for wind-turbines, of the 130,000t REE produced in 2010, 26,000t was for wind-turbines 73. This proportion will increase as the world economies increase their reliance on wind energy to provide their energy. The amount of REE per turbine varies
considerably depending on the type of
turbine and which figures you find and from which sources. According to Former CEO of Molycorp Mark Smith - ‘2t of REE is needed on top of each wind-turbine 74’.
Figure 27 Exploded diagram showing location of NdFeB Magnets in turbines
Equation 6 Tonnes of REE to produce UK's Fleet of turbines
73 Buchert D. Rare Earths - a Bottleneck for future Wind Turbine Technology?. (PDF) Oko-Institut.; 2011. Available from: http://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1296/2011-421-en.pdf 74 Smith M. Lynas Corporation - Wind Turbines. (Online) Available from: http://www.lynascorp.com/pages/Wind-turbines.aspx
32
Therefore with the data collected previously we can evaluate that before we have even installed the turbine, the environmental costs created in China are:
Equation 7 Total Harmful waste produced in China by UK's fleet
33
A lot of social, environmental and economic attention for wind has been the claim of reductions
in CO2, however any calculation by any report, for example by Vesta, have ignored construction, transport, maintenance costs and emissions. The construction of wind-turbines requires vast amounts of materials. Fig28 demonstrates the scale of wind-turbines.
Figure 28 Comparative Size of Wind Turbines
Figure 29 Scale of Wind Turbine Base to Show Extent of Concrete Required
Figure 30 Comparison of Construction Inputs of Concrete and Steel required for a Natural Gas Powerstation to Turbines
34
The website Renewable UK states ‘800t of concrete is used per turbine.’ 75 Taking the amount of CO2 produced per tonne of structural concrete (assuming ~14% cement) to be 410 kg/m3 76. Calculating the total construction emissions from the current fleet of wind-turbines is straightforward.
Equation 8 Amount of CO2 Produced through Turbine Construction
75 Daily Commercial News. Ontario wind power projects help drive concrete demand. (Online) 17 April. 2013 Available from: http://www.dcnonl.com/article/id54941/--ontario-wind-power-projects-helpdrive-concrete-demand 76 Dhir R, Jappy T. Exploiting wastes in concrete. London: T. Telford; 1999.p8
35
Figure 31 How Much CO2 is Created By..? Comparison of Wind Turbine Construction CO2
The info-graphic above illustrates clearly how wind farms compare with other specific sources on CO2 emissions. Showing each wind-turbine discharges 22x more CO2 than the average UK
citizen.
Highlighting the necessity of rigorous assessment of all stages of renewable production before formulating policies, this chapter has discovered that emissions are not just restricted to the
borders of the home nation, but is a global issue; therefore policies should be treated as such.
Additionally how incorrect strategies have wider implications, socially, economically and most importantly environmentally.
36
Residential Sector
Part 4.0 UK Residential Sector.
We shall now assess the implications for the residential sector, and the individual home itself.
How the CO2 emissions compare to other sectors of the economy. Whether the current policies are performing while evaluating how the housing stock can adapt. How zero-carbon has
infected architects and the individual homeowners. Research and practice requires the
government, the construction sector and the public collectively. All are pivotal in order to
translate the ideas into reality. Using case studies of Granary Court and the successful EnerPHit retrofit in London to investigate policies and their application.
Energy Supply Transport Business Residential Other
Total
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
241
210
203
216
213
190
195
182
192
120
120
125
129
125
121
119
117
116
79
81
87
84
80
75
87
66
74
113 39
592
107 36
554
107 31
553
97 27
554
90 23
531
79 17
481
79 18
498
76 17
459
(p)
79 18
479
Table 6 Sources of CO2 Emissions. Excludes Overseas Territories. Mt (p) 2012 are provisional
Figure 32 Pie Chart showing Sources of CO2 Emissions in the UK. Mt.
37
Table 6 illustrates the residential sector accounts for 15.4% of our economy’s CO2 emissions 77
and therefore improving the energy efficiency of our homes is vital to meet our targets.
Transforming the existing UK housing stock is an area where activity needs to be delivered.
There are existing policies in place for zero-carbon new builds by 2016. But research shows
working towards zero-carbon new homes will not satisfy enough of the emissions. Therein lies
the problem. Existing housing. The national stock of 26 million dwellings has an average
replacement rate of less than 0.5% per year 78, considering 85% of homes will still be in use by 2050 79. A rational and consistent strategy for refurbishment is required and should echo that
which is being taken with zero-carbon new builds. Strategies need to address all parties.
Figure 33 To achieve targets 1 Zero-Carbon Retofit per Minute is Needed
Inspecting table 6 shows only a 6.3% reduction in residential CO2 emissions between 1990-
2012. This progress could be evaluated as positive considering there are 6.3m more residencies
than the 19.7m in 1990 80.
77 74Mt of 479Mt 2012 78 Instituteforsustainability.org.uk. A ÂŁ500 billion opportunity. (Online) Available from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx 79 Killip G. Transforming the UK's Existing Housing Stock. (PDF) University of Oxford.; 2008. Available from: http://www.fmb.org.uk/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=2358. 80 Department For Communities And Local Government. English Housing Survey. Stock Report 2008. (PDF) London: UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6703/1750754.pdf.
38
4.1 End-User The 15.4% of emissions from residential ignores the End-User. End-User relocates emissions
that have the energy sector as their source to where they are actually consumed.
Breakdown of 2011 UK Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide
Emissions by Gas and End User
MtCO2e
Residential
124.1 (27%)
Total
Table 7 Breakdown of 2011 CO2 Emissions by End User. MtCO2e.
458.6
By dissecting the CO2 emissions by End-User, reality deviates; in 2012 27% of the total of CO2
emissions derives from the residential sector 81. Almost double the preliminary emission figure
of 15.4%.
Figure 34. Pie Chart of CO2 Emissions by End User Sector. 2011
The market for low carbon refurbishment is undoubtedly in its infancy. Primarily a niche activity in the UK carried out only by enthusiasts, a number of architectural practices are
beginning to offer specialist services, whose numbers are growing, albeit slowly. Evidence
shows there needs to be immediate attention and policy implementation in order to address the
situation.
81 Department Of Energy & Climate Change. 2012 UK greenhouse gas emissions, provisional figures and 2011 UK greenhouse gas emissions, final figures by fuel type and end-user. (PDF) UK Government.; 2013. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/193414/280313_ghg_ national_statistics_release_2012_provisional.pdf.
39
Repair, Maintenance and Improvement is a £23.9billion per year industry 82. Most RMI miss the
opportunity of reducing their CO2 emissions to zero-carbon levels. The challenge is to find a way
of creating a renovation programme that offers incentives. Several barriers still exist. High start-
up costs deter the myopic, seeing little enticement to carry out costly refurbishments now. This
is reflected with only 12 households in the UK signing up for the Green Deal 83.
But how much of a missed opportunity is there in the market for zero-carbon retrofits? To achieve the required 80% reduction in CO2 and energy efficiency the average RMI costs £25,000 84.
Equation 9 £500bn Missed Opportunity?
The calculation above illustrates clearly the huge economic and environmental opportunity and
market to exploit, so why aren’t more homes and firms actively implementing zero-carbon retrofits?
82 Killip G. Transforming the UK's Existing Housing Stock. (PDF) University of Oxford.; 2008. Available from: http://www.fmb.org.uk/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=2358. 83 Winch J. Just 12 homes get Green Deal energy savers. The Telegraph. 19 Sept 2013 84 Instituteforsustainability.org.uk. A £500 billion opportunity. (Online) Available from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx
40
Table-8 summarises strategies that the Institute for Sustainability argues should be initiated in order to stimulate long-term consumer demand and delivery capacity 85.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
•Communities and local government to review the implementation of EPC's to make the necessary changes and improve accuracy and reliability. •Implement consequential work policies for existing housing as part of the next revision to Building Regulations Approved Documents part L. •Trade Associations to work with Energy Savings Trust for Small construction and property firms to fit better with established customs and practice.
•Government to work within the institutions of the EU to establish VAT framework, which allows permanent reduced rates on domestic property renovation and repair. •Government to review options for innovative uses of financial incentives, using council tax rebates as a delivery mechanism. •Government to introduce a feed-in tariff to stimulate greater uptake of micro-generation technologies. •Government to send a strong policy signal of its long-term commitment to low carbon refurbishment, so that the manufactures and suppliers can invest early and with confidence in the development of the necessary supply chains •Government to set put a timescale and policy framework for establishing a mandatory refurbishment standard that is consistent with an 80% CO2 reduction target by 2050.
Table 8 8-Policies Suggested by the Institute for Sustainability
The 8-policies illustrate the need for long-term cooperation between public and private sectors, however certain barriers for such remain. However, despite red-tape and financial concerns there have been a handful of successful zero-carbon retrofits.
85 Instituteforsustainability.org.uk. A £500 billion opportunity. (Online) Available from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx
41
4.2 EnerPHit Standards. The EnerPHit Standard; a zero-carbon certificate for a refurbished building that certifies it as a ‘Quality-Approved Passive House 86’.
Figure 35 EnerPHit logo
The primary objective for the South Warnborough site is to obtain an EnerPHit accreditation.
EnerPHit Standard is accredited to refurbishments due to the difficulty in achieving PassivHaus
standards with the same financial and technology means in refurbishing houses than new
builds. The standard focusses on space heating, air tightness and sustainable energy provision. However this does mean the requirements are slightly relaxed in comparison to PassivHaus constructions, allowing for lower energy standards.
http://passivhaustrust.org.uk/UserFiles/File/Melissa%20Taylor-
%20Ecobuild%20EnerPHit%20presentation.pdf
Table 9 EnerPHit Performance Criteria
86 Passivhaus.org.uk. Passivhaus:EnerPHit Standard. (Online) Available from: http://www.passivhaus.org.uk/page.jsp?id=20
42
100 Princedale Road, Notting Hill, London, W11 4NH EnerPHit is the leading standard for zero-carbon retrofits with
growing recognition within the architectural and development industries. However in London there are only 2 which have achieved accreditation, which demonstrates its complexity.
Figure 36 100 Princedale Road
Figure 37 Thermal Performance
An exemplar of successful EnerPHit; a pre-1919 terrace was the first certified renovation to
EnerPHit standards in the UK. It acts as a beacon of hope for projects, with the founder of PassivHaus Dr Wolfgang Feist calling the project ‘a milestone in the history of thermal
renovation’ 87. This project was designed for social housing and tenants who may not be energy conscious or have the means to carry out such a renovations. With the architecture practice of
Paul Davis + Partners at the helm, CO2 emissions have reduced by 83% and used 94% less energy 88 with 70% reduction in energy bills 89. This
was achieved through high-energy efficiency appliances, triple glazing and minimizing all thermal bridging through heavy insulation.
One failure has however been the Solar PV cells,
fitted in the shadow of the large chimney stack.
Figure 38 CO2 emissions of a Typical House to Princedale Road
Figure 39 Current Energy Demand to before Retrofit
Passivhaustrust.org.uk. Projects. (Online) Available from: http://www.passivhaustrust.org.uk/projects/detail/?cId=15#.Utv-spLFLqS 88 ibid 89 Grosvenor. Sustainable Refurbishment : A Toolkit for Going Green. (PDF); 2013. Available from: http://www.grosvenor.com/NR/rdonlyres/449F83D7-2FB3-41ED-B48B69DDC47C0DB2/13171/SustainableRefurbishmentAToolkitForGoingGreen.pdf. 87
43
Issues with EnerPHit Princedale Road demonstrates that achieving a high number of renovations to achieve the 80% reduction at relatively low cost is feasible, if carried out correctly. Despite the positives other problems arise. Passivhaus standards accredit a reduction of CO2 emissions by 80% 90,
complying with the UK’s government’s standards. Here a vital point must be noted, the
Orwellian feat of claiming an 80% reduction as zero-carbon, and therefore equating 20% as 0 is
a compromise that must be addressed and stopped, with regulation that calls upon genuine zero-carbon emissions, otherwise a spiral of compromises will ensue.
While the relaxed standards associated with EnerPHit allow the construction sector to assess
the criteria’s as the optimum level to aim for, rather than the minimum that should be
surpassed, many will see success in reaching the exact level of 25kWh rather than challenging themselves in order to reduce this figure even more.
Whilst the challenge of 1 retrofit a minute is the largest obstacle, research demonstrates that the Construction and Demolition sector is the largest contributor of waste in the UK. The UK Green Building Council state ‘120 million tonnes of waste every year’ 91. This equates to 32% of the
cumulative UK waste. Evidence shows that if the issue of zero-carbon homes is tackled, each will
generate a large quantity of waste, this must be dealt with sensibly or all the positives generated through the refurbishment will be fruitless through the volume of waste produced.
Affordability
A study by Sunderland based Gentoo, one of the UK’s leading sustainable housing associations discovered that less than 3% of its properties could be cost-effectively retrofitted to high
standards 92. Shy of EnerPHit standards, with the £10,000 budget, as noted with 100 Princedale Road, a required budget of 2.5x was required. This level of renovation is remarkably expensive
to carry out; admittedly the long-term benefits are evident. Notwithstanding as demand grows,
costs will decrease as the efficiency of the market grows. A spiral of decline may ensue because
subsidies enticing the implementation of renewable energy systems to the home are indirectly cancelled out by green energy costs being added onto household energy bills. This results in energy prices having a disproportionate effect on the fuel poor. Therefore as more wealthy
areas employ renewable energies because they can afford it, the less affluent areas will be left to cover the costs of higher energy prices.
90 Leap4.it. Low Energy & Passivhaus Retrofit - LEAP | Low Energy Architectural Practice | UK Passivhaus Architects | Durham | Certified Passive House Designers and Consultants | Custom Self Build |. (Online) Available from: http://leap4.it/Low-Energy-Passivhaus-Retrofit 91UK Green Building Council. Waste | UK Green Building Council. (Online) Available from: http://www.ukgbc.org/content/waste 92Hardman I. Gentoo survey uncovers new problems for retrofits. (Online) 4 June. 2010 Available from: http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/gentoo-survey-uncovers-new-problems-for-retrofit/6510074.article
44
The average UK Householder lives in his house for an average of 13 years 93. Despite the relative
high start-up costs for refurbishment, benefits will only become apparent 10-20 years down the
line, if the pattern is correct, the refurbishment will only benefit the next owner of the property.
4.3 Granary Court. Alton Road. South Warnborough, Hook, Hampshire RG29 1RZ
Figure 40 Location of Granary Court and its Proximity to Mid Hants
Housing Economics. NAHB: How Long Buyers Remain in Their Homes. (Online) Available from: http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&genericContentID=110770&channelID=311
93
45
This is a current project I am involved with of an old grain dryer-come-office units converted under Part-L of the Building Regulation into 8 studio, one-bed affordable dwellings. This
proposal is a challenging prospect transforming the site into low-energy flexible dwellings up to EnerPHit criteria. To achieve the sustainable 6-star rating the use of sustainable energy is
essential.
Figure 41 Granary Court
The site itself is located only 1.7km away from Mid Hants; the biomass storage facility
mentioned earlier. This at the time of first proposal was a beneficial factor. With a local and
constant supply of zero-carbon energy demands would have easily been met. However as the research has discovered the site has stopped supplying the biomass the UK needs. Now the
issue lies with what renewable system would we have to adopt in order to satisfy the demands? The results and calculations of wind and solar have highlighted their complications, primarily of energy insecurity and scope 3 emissions. The site itself lacks the wind and solar strength for
sufficient generation. As a result of this study we are employing a ‘Fabric-First’ tactic of
maximising the energy efficiency of the building fabric in order to reduce the building energy as
low as possible. With the majority of focus towards insulation, air tightness and material use.
The building will be heavily insulated with 100mm Kingspan trapezoidal cladding on the timber
frame, coupled with the maximum conservation of fuel and power, reducing heat loss by passive methods achieved by a carefully designed strategy.
46
Figure 42. Artist Visualisation of Granary Court after Retrofit
The developer sees the EnerPHit criteria of 25Kwh (m2a) specific heat demand as a guideline, and plans to minimise heat demand to as low as industrially possible. The team are also
conscious of the long-term and are currently implementing a 20-year policy in order to
maintain the highest standard. We will achieve this through constant maintenance while keeping the project at the forefront of technology.
With this in mind, by not employing renewable energy systems we will not satisfy EnerPHit criteria and will not achieve accreditation. However, a certificate does not do justice to a
strategy of incorrect policies that, as exposed is uneconomical and environmentally damaging.
We plan to implement the correct strategy when renewable technology catches up with demand for renewables. Evaluation.
Delays to the approval of planning proposals have hindered the progress of the project severely for this dissertation. The site is still in the planning stage, as result cost-benefit evaluates of
energy systems for Granary Court have not been achieved. But this study will continue for the foreseeable future in order to assess the most appropriate system. 47
Statement of Aim
1. Evaluate the current approach to reducing CO2 levels within the UK.
Conclusion
Part 5.0 : Conclusion
2. Conduct a Life Cycle Assessment of the renewable energy systems.
3. The implications upon the residential sector in relation to the changing energy landscape.
4. Assess the most applicable holistic approach to retrofitting a project in the South East of England. This thesis from the onset declared 4 statements of aim. Through an extensive range of sources
and data my aims have been achieved. I will evaluate the results.
1. By assessing the current schemes and approach that the UK has taken we have reflected
critically upon the implications of incorrect policies; socially; economically and
environmentally. Despite the heavy investment towards new renewable infrastructures their contribution to the UK economy is still dwarfed by hydrocarbons. Our investigation
demonstrated the mitigations behind their progress with results on the current insecurity of
renewables.
Establishing how demand for renewable energy provision has intensified beyond the
technological aptitude. As a result, despite being on track for our 2020 targets, at the current
rate we will fall considerably short of our 2050 targets, unless we create a landscape of flexible energy provision, combining renewable and carbon systems with long-term and calculated strategies within every sector; until technology progresses and renewables are secure and
viable enough to power our economy. The study highlighted the danger of over-reliance on a
single energy source, by looking at the energy insecurity of wind, the financial insecurity of solar
and the policy insecurity of biomass.
2. The aim to conduct a life-cycle-analysis had to be altered with an absence of published figures
from the Bayan Obo mine; therefore a pragmatic diluted version of a LCA was undertaken that reflected the core principles in order to demonstrate the wide-scale costs of renewables. The
study highlights the unresolved situation for global responsibility and accountability towards the green-revolution, and the importance of scope-3 emissions, which as a result must be
included onto emissions in order to display a balanced and true reflection upon Britain’s
progress. With the intrinsic investigation into the green-screened issue of REE and the high 48
environmental costs of mining, extraction, transport and construction of wind and solar
demonstrates a hidden façade to the green-energies presented in the media; one of high CO2; radioactive emissions and material-bottlenecks within the industry.
Studies from wind-turbine manufactures assessing their CO2 impact ignored extraction, transport and construction costs. By using the data from Ausubel allowed for direct
comparisons for material and construction costs and CO2 emissions in order to offer an assertive and balanced reflection upon the true costs of renewable energies.
3. Despite 1/3 of End-User Emissions deriving from the residential sector there has been limited
transformation to its emissions. We have investigated current schemes to encourage
households to improve their efficiency and have discovered their current limitations, with only 12 homes installing energy savings measures through the Green Deal; while only 2 accredited
EnerPHit homes exist in London. The 8-point strategy by The Institute for Sustainability in Part 4 offers a range of policies that offer long-term and sustainable prospects. Policies 4-8 offering very coherent and approachable strategies.
Whichever strategy that is implemented needs to be consistent, thoroughly researched which integrates government, engineers, architects and contractors with information that is readily
available.
In order to achieve our targets a rate of 1-retrofit-a-minute is required. If achieved the potential
opportunity is worth £500bn by 2050. Despite the financial and environmental benefits, zero-
carbon retrofitting is still in its infancy. This study has identified that in the current technology
climate renewable energy systems at the house scale will not be the most secure method to rely on. Instead through an integration of engineers, architects and contractors a method of ‘Fabric First’ should be implemented.
4. The approach of this thesis was to determine the appropriate strategy for the zero-carbon renovation of Granary Court. The finding throughout this thesis has dictated that renewable
energy systems would not be the most appropriate system to employ, with low energy security and hidden emissions a critical reason. As such using the method of ‘Fabric First’ working to
PassivHaus air-tightness values and using the highest energy-standard materials; energy
demand and heat-loss will be kept to a minimum. Our energy supply will be kept flexible as to when the correct and true zero-carbon systems becomes available.
49
This thesis has through academic studies and factual results evaluated that the UK has rushed
into strategies that have not been thoroughly assessed.
The complexity of our energy demands, supply and infrastructure require more than a rough
guideline. Strategies must be intrinsically developed from the individual to the global network.
Every answer derives from a question. Strategies imposing renewable energies of wind, solar
and biomass as the answer have asked: How can we provide secure, clean and reliable
renewable energy to meet our present energy needs without compromising the needs for future generations?
Therefore, as this thesis has discovered our renewable energy systems do not yet answer this
question. We need clean energy systems throughout its value-chain. In their current forms
wind, solar and biomass should not be utilised until their technological development answers the question.
Because of our dependency on power in all its disguises, there is no quick fix answer to the
problems facing tomorrow's world today. But we must not be deceived any longer into thinking
'if it's green it's clean'. We must be brave enough to look rationally, globally, to look behind and
through the Green Screen in all its faรงades and perhaps the answers are more obvious than we
think. I want to conclude in agreement with Winston Churchill when he said 94
Winstonchurchill.org. Winston Churchill for Traders & Analysts. (Online) Available from: http://www.winstonchurchill.org/support/the-churchill-centre/publications/chartwellbulletin/2013/57-mar/1648-winston-churchill-for-traders-a-analysts 94
50
Bibliography
Bibliography Asia News. China's dilemma; how to mine rare earths whilst protecting reserves and the environment. (Online) 15 March. 2011 Available from: http://www.asianews.it/news-en/China%E2%80%99s-dilemma-or-howto-mine-rare-earths-whilst-protecting-reserves-and-the-environment-21039.html (Accessed 23 Oct 2013).
Ausubel J. The Future Environment for Energy Business. (PDF) New York: Rockefeller University.; 2007. Available from: http://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/appeaausubel12april.pdf.
Baotou National Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone. Rare Earth : An Introduction. (Online) Available from: http://www.rev.cn/en/int.htm (Accessed 17 July 2013). Bennett S. Encyclopedia of Energy. Delhi: Global Media; 2007. Biomassenergycentre.org.uk. Estimated carbon dioxide emissions for freight transport. (Online) Available from: http://www.biomassenergycentre.org.uk/portal/page?_pageid=75,20043&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTA L (Accessed 18 Jan 2014). Black R. EU 'Imports' a third of its carbon emissions. (Online) 9 March. 2010 Available from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8557461.stm (Accessed 27 July 2013). Bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk. 1.1 A ÂŁ500 billion opportunity. (Online) Available from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx (Accessed 18 Jan 2014). BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. (PDF) London:; 2014. Available from: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf. Bryce R. Power hungry. New York, NY: PublicAffairs; 2010. Buchert D. Rare Earths - a Bottleneck for future Wind Turbine Technology?. (PDF) Oko-Institut.; 2011. Available from: http://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1296/2011-421-en.pdf. Burns S. Rare Earth Price Outlook: Lynas Corp, Molycorp Swaying Market. (Online) 4 June. 2013 Available from: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1479971-rare-earth-price-outlook-lynas-corp-molycorp-swayingmarket (Accessed 22 Oct 2013). China Forbidden News. Earth Minerals Turn Villages to Ruins. (video online) 2012. Available from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGLC59rCCDc 2012 (Accessed 19 Jan 2014). Daily Commercial News. Ontario wind power projects help drive concrete demand. (Online) 17 April. 2013 Available from: http://www.dcnonl.com/article/id54941/--ontario-wind-power-projects-help-driveconcrete-demand (Accessed 5 Jan 2014).
51
Department For Communities And Local Government. English Housing Survey. Stock Report 2008. (PDF) London: UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6703/1750754.pdf. Department Of Energy & Climate Change. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2012. (PDF) UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225045/statistics_press_no tice_2013.pdf. Department Of Energy & Climate Change. 2012 UK greenhouse gas emissions, provisional figures and 2011 UK greenhouse gas emissions, final figures by fuel type and end-user. (PDF) UK Government.; 2013. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/193414/280313_ghg_natio nal_statistics_release_2012_provisional.pdf. Dhir R, Jappy T. Exploiting wastes in concrete. London: T. Telford; 1999. Economist, The. The cost del sol. The Economist. 2013;: 57. EP Library. China's export restrictions on rare earth elements. (Online) 6 Aug. 2013 Available from: http://libraryeuroparl.wordpress.com/2013/08/06/chinas-export-restrictions-on-rare-earth-elements/ (Accessed 22 Oct 2013). Forestry.gov.uk. Statistics - Releases - Woodland area, planting & restocking. (Online) Available from: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/infd-7rehtc (Accessed 19 Jan 2014). Grosvenor. Sustainable Refurbishment : A Toolkit for Going Green. (PDF); 2013. Available from: http://www.grosvenor.com/NR/rdonlyres/449F83D7-2FB3-41ED-B48B69DDC47C0DB2/13171/SustainableRefurbishmentAToolkitForGoingGreen.pdf. Hardman I. Gentoo survey uncovers new problems for retrofits. (Online) 4 June. 2010 Available from: http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/gentoo-survey-uncovers-new-problems-for-retrofit/6510074.article (Accessed 21 Aug 2013). Harrabin R. Renewable energy: Burning US trees in UK power stations. (Online) 28 May. 2013 Available from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22630815 (Accessed 19 July 2013). Hilsum L. Chinese pay toxic price for a green world. (Online) 6 Dec. 2009 Available from: http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/article192193.ece (Accessed 20 Oct 2013). Housing Economics. NAHB: How Long Buyers Remain in Their Homes. (Online) Available from: http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&genericContentID=110770&channelID=311 (Accessed 15 Jan 2014). Hurst C. China's rare earth elements industry. Washington, D.C.: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security; 2010.
52
Instituteforsustainability.org.uk. A ÂŁ500 billion opportunity. (Online) Available from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx (Accessed 18 Dec 2013). International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2008. (PDF) Paris: IEA Publications.; 2008. Available from: http://www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/WEO2008.pdf. Killip G. Transforming the UK's Existing Housing Stock. (PDF) University of Oxford.; 2008. Available from: http://www.fmb.org.uk/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=2358. Leap4.it. Low Energy & Passivhaus Retrofit - LEAP | Low Energy Architectural Practice | UK Passivhaus Architects | Durham | Certified Passive House Designers and Consultants | Custom Self Build |. (Online) Available from: http://leap4.it/Low-Energy-Passivhaus-Retrofit (Accessed 24 Oct 2013). Legislation.gov.uk. Climate Change Act 2008. (Online) Available from: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/part/1/crossheading/the-target-for-2050 (Accessed 19 Jan 2014). Lewis L. Crunch looms for green technology as China tightens grip on rare-earth metals. (Online) 28 May. 2009 Available from: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article2182740.ece (Accessed 20 July 2013). Livingston J. Rising force. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press; 2011. Long K. Principal rare earth elements deposits of the united states-a summary of. (S.l.): Bibliogov; 2013. Lynascorp.com. Lynas Corporation - Wind Turbines. (Online) Available from: http://www.lynascorp.com/pages/Wind-turbines.aspx (Accessed 19 Jan 2014). Mackay D. Sustainable energy--without the hot air. Cambridge, England: UIT; 2009. Makovich L, Diorio P, Giuffre D. Renewable Portfolio Standards: Getting Ahead of Themselves?. CERA. 2008;: 15. Available from: http:/www.ihs.com/products/cera/energy-report.aspx?id=106591658 (Accessed 2 Aug 2013). Mason R. Wind farms produced 'practically no electricity' during Britain's cold snap. The Telegraph. 11 Jan 2010. Mason R. David Cameron hints at further cuts to green energy subsidies. The Telegraph. 12 June 2013. Mendick R. The wind farms that generate enough power to make a few cups of tea. The Telegraph. 24 Aug 2013. Mineralprices.com. Mineralprices.com - The Global Source for Metals Pricing. (Online) Available from: http://www.mineralprices.com (Accessed 19 Jan 2014). Oxford University. GB Electricity Generation By Fuel Type. (Online) Available from: http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~dcurtis/NETA.html (Accessed 3 Aug 2013).
53
Parry S. In China, the true cost of Britain's clean, green wind power experiment : Pollution on a disastrous scale. The Daily Mail. 26 Jan 2011. Passivhaus.org.uk. Passivhaus:EnerPHit Standard. (Online) Available from: http://www.passivhaus.org.uk/page.jsp?id=20 (Accessed 15 Oct 2013). Passivhaustrust.org.uk. Projects. (Online) Available from: http://www.passivhaustrust.org.uk/projects/detail/?cId=15#.Utv-spLFLqS (Accessed 15 Oct 2013). Perkowski J. Behind China's Rare Earth Controversy. (Online) 21 June. 2012 Available from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/06/21/behind-chinas-rare-earth-controversy/ (Accessed 19 Aug 2013). Prouse S. Four per cent believe UK can reach 2020 targets. (Online) 18 March. 2013 Available from: http://www.resource.uk.com/article/UK/Four_cent_believe_UK_can_reach_2020_targets2858#.UtvTBpLFLqS (Accessed 19 Aug 2013). Publications.parliament.uk. House of Lords - Economic Affairs - Written Evidence. (Online) Available from: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/195/195we57.htm (Accessed 30 July 2013). Purnell P. The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks on the road to low-carbon infrastructure. (PDF); 2012. Available from: http://www.exeter.ac.uk/energysecurity/documents/Phil_Purnell.pdf. Rapoza K. China Solar Panel Makers Brace for Tougher Times. (Online) 6 April. 2013 Available from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/06/04/china-solar-panel-makers-brace-for-tougher-times/ (Accessed 19 Jan 2014). Renewableuk.com. RenewableUK | UK Wind Energy Database (UKWED). (Online) Available from: http://www.renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/wind-energy/uk-wind-energy-database/ (Accessed 19 Sept 2013). Ridley M. Making electricity from burning wood is bad for the economy and the environment. The Times. 20 June 2013. Sample I. UK import emissions are the highest in Europe, figures show. (Online) 8 March. 2010 Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/mar/08/carbon-emissions-carbonfootprints (Accessed 27 July 2013). Schier T. Molycorp ramping up Mountain Pass Mine. (Online) 14 Aug. 2013 Available from: http://www.amm.com/Article/3243568/Molycorp-ramping-up-Mountain-Pass-Mine.html (Accessed 12 Oct 2013). Shuler D. Rare Earths - Facts & Figures. (PDF) Berlin: Oko-Institut.; 2011. Available from: http://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1111/2011-002-en.pdf.
54
Sikimic S. World's biggest wind farm boss tells us 2050 targets are unachievable. (Online) 21 June. 2013 Available from: http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/economic/worlds-biggest-windfarm-boss-tells-us-2050-targets-are-unachievable/5785.article (Accessed 1 Aug 2013). Techmetalsresearch.com. The Second Round of Chinese Rare-Earth Export-Quota Allocations for 2013 — Technology Metals Research. (Online) Available from: http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2013/07/thesecond-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2013/ (Accessed 22 Oct 2013). The Guardian. Rare-earth mining in China comes at a heavy cost for local villages. (Online) 7 Aug. 2012 Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/aug/07/china-rare-earth-village-pollution (Accessed 14 Aug 2013). The University Of Edinburgh. Matching Renewable Electricity with Demand. (PDF) Edinburgh:; 2006. Available from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/112589/0027358.pdf. UK Green Building Council. Waste | UK Green Building Council. (Online) Available from: http://www.ukgbc.org/content/waste (Accessed 28 Oct 2013). Vestas Wind Turbines - A great advantage to the environment. (Press release) 12 April 2005 2005. Webb T. Free power deal to reduce chances of blackouts. The Times. 1 Aug 2013. Weighell T. The global land use impact of the United Kingdom's biomass consumption. (PDF) JNCC.; 2011. Available from: http://jncc.defra.gov.uk/pdf/Biomass.pdf. Winch J. Just 12 homes get Green Deal energy savers. The Telegraph. 19 Sept 2013. Winstonchurchill.org. Winston Churchill for Traders & Analysts. (Online) Available from: http://www.winstonchurchill.org/support/the-churchill-centre/publications/chartwell-bulletin/2013/57mar/1648-winston-churchill-for-traders-a-analysts (Accessed 15 Jan 2014). Worldpublicopinion.org. World Publics Strongly Favor Requiring More Wind and Solar Energy, More Efficiency, Even If It Increases Costs - World Public Opinion. (Online) Available from: http://worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/btenvironmentra/570.php?lb=&pnt=570&nid=&id= (Accessed 5 July 2013).
55
Figure 1 Cover Page : Are Renewable Energies the Solution? Amsterdam Industrial Port. Barham D (Unpublished 2014)
Figures
List of Figures
Figure 2. UK’s target in relation to 1990 base level. Barham D. (Unpublished 2014) Data from: Legislation.gov.uk. Climate Change Act 2008. (Online) Available from: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/part/1/crossheading/the-target-for-2050
Figure 3. Illustrating the Renewable Deficit. Barham D. (Unpublished 2014) Data from: BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. (PDF) London:; 2014. Available from: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statisticalreview/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf
Figure 4. Electricity Flow Chart 2012 Twh. UK Gov. Dukes 2013 Annex H. [PDF] UK Gov.; 2014. Available from:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225060/D UKES_2013_Annex_H.pdf. p.149
Figure 5. Renewable Flow Chart 2012. Ttoe. UK Gov. Dukes 2013 Annex H. [PDF] UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225060/DUKES_ 2013_Annex_H.pdf. p.150 Figure 6. Electricity by Fuel Type. MW. Oxford University. GB Electricity Generation By Fuel Type. (Online) Available from: http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~dcurtis/NETA.html Figure 7. Results of RWE reports. Barham D. (Unpublished 2014) Data from Mendick R. The wind farms that generate enough power to make a few cups of tea. The Telegraph. 24 Aug 2013.
Figures 8 & 9. Images of Mid Hants from Google Street View from 2011. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Figures 10 & 11. Mid Hants. June 2013. Barham D (Unpublished 2014)
Figure 12. Current wood supply from foreign forest would equate to 60% of UK’s land. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Figure 13. Mid Hants. September 2013. Operational. Barham D. (Unpublished 2014) Figure 14. Waste Wood Destined for Sweden. Barham D. (Unpublished 2014)
Figure 15. UK’s CO2 Emission Targets 1990, 2012, 2050 (e). Barham D. (Unpublished 2014) Data from Legislation.gov.uk. Climate Change Act 2008. (Online) Available from: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/part/1/crossheading/the-target-for-2050 Figure 16. Infographic showing UK was on target for the 2010 Kyoto targets. Information is Beautiful. Kyoto: Who’s on Target (image online) 2009. Available from : http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2009/kyoto-whos-on-target (Edited by Barham D 2014)
56
Figure 17. Showing reduction in CO2 from 1990-2012. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) data from Department Of Energy & Climate Change. 2012 UK greenhouse gas emissions, provisional figures and 2011 UK greenhouse gas emissions, final figures by fuel type and end-user. (PDF) UK Government.; 2013. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/193414/280313 _ghg_national_statistics_release_2012_provisional.pdf. Figure 18. Scattergraph Illustrating Reduction in CO2 1990-2012. MtCO2e. Barham D. Data ibid fig17. Figure 19. Scattergraph with Trend Extended to 2050. MtCO2e. Barham D. Data ibid Fig 17.
Figure 20. UK CO2 Emissions by Sector 1990-2012. MtCO2e. Department For Communities And Local Government. English Housing Survey. Stock Report 2008. (PDF) London: UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6703/1750754. pdf. P.32 Figure 21. Periodic Table with REE Highlighted. Brewton Parker College. Periodic Table (Image Online) 2010. Available from: http://http://www.bpc.edu/mathscience/chemistry/history_of_the_periodic_table.html (Edited Barham D) Figure 22. Flow Chart showing processes from Ore to Green Energy System. Barham D (Unpublished 2014)
Figure 23. Every Tonne of REE produces vast amounts of waste and toxic chemicals. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from Hurst C. China's rare earth elements industry. Washington, D.C.: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security; 2010. P16 Figure 24. Google Earth Image of Bayan Obo mine, illustrating the tailing lakes processes and poor environmental standards. Barham D (Unpublished 2014)
Figure 25. Flow Chart of Material Bottleneck within the Industry. Barham D. (Unpublished 2014) Figure 26. Reasons for Export Quotas. Barham D. (Unpublished 2014)
Figure 27. Exploded diagram showing location of NdFeB Magnets in turbines. Smith M. Lynas Corporation - Wind Turbines. (Image Online) Available from: http://www.lynascorp.com/pages/Wind-turbines.aspx
Figure 28. Comparative Size of Wind Turbines. Wind Power Engineering. (Image Online) 2010. Available from : http:// http://www.windpowerengineering.com/construction/projects/britanniabreaks-the-9-mw-barrier/ Figure 29. Scale of Wind Turbine Base to Show Extent of Concrete Required. Wind Farm Action. Concrete turbine base. (Image Online) 2011 Available from : http://windfarmaction.wordpress.com/2011/11/12/concrete-turbine-base/
Figure 30 Comparison of Construction Inputs of Concrete and Steel required for a Natural Gas Powerstation to Turbines. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from Ausubel J. The Future Environment for Energy Business. [PDF] New York: Rockefeller University.; 2007. Available from: http://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/appeaausubel12april.pdf.
Figure 31. How Much CO2 is created by...? Comparison of Wind Turbine Construction CO2 Information is Beautiful. How Much CO2..? (Image Online) 2011 Available from : http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2011/how-much-carbon/. (Edited Barham D 2014)
57
Figure 32. Pie Chart showing Sources of CO2 in the UK. Mt. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : . Department For Communities And Local Government. English Housing Survey. Stock Report 2008. (PDF) London: UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6703/1750754. pdf p4 Figure 33. To achieve targets 1 Zero-Carbon Retrofit per Minute. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx
Figure 34. Pie Chart of CO2 Emissions by End-User. Department For Communities And Local Government. English Housing Survey. Stock Report 2008. (PDF) London: UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6703/1750754. pdf p12
Figure 35. EnerPHit logo. Passivhaus.org.uk. Passivhaus:EnerPHit Standard. (Image Online) Available from: http://www.passivhaus.org.uk/page.jsp?id=20 Figure 36. 100 Princedale Road. Barham D. (Unpublished 2013)
Figure 37. Thermal Performance. Passivhaus.org.uk. Passivhaus:EnerPHit Standard. (Image Online) Available from: http://www.passivhaus.org.uk/page.jsp?id=20
Figure 38. CO2 Emissions of a Typical House to Princedale Road. Barham D (Unpublished 2013) Data from : Grosvenor. Sustainable Refurbishment: A Toolkit for Going Green. (PDF); 2013. Available from: http://www.grosvenor.com/NR/rdonlyres/449F83D7-2FB3-41ED-B48B69DDC47C0DB2/13171/SustainableRefurbishmentAToolkitForGoingGreen.pdf. p29 Figure 39. Current Energy Demand to before Retrofit. Barham D (Unpublished 2013) Data from : ibid 38
Figure 40. Location of Granary Court and its proximity to Mid Hants. Barham D (Unpublished 2013)
Figure 41. Granary Court. Barham D (Unpublished 2013)
Figure 42. Artist Visualisation of Granary Court after Retrofit. Barham D (Unpublished 2013)
58
Equations
List of Equations Equation 1. Total CO2 emissions per capita. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : UK Gov. Dukes 2013 Annex H. [PDF] UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225060/DUKES_ 2013_Annex_H.pdf Equation 2. Value of UK Primary Energy 2013. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from: BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013. (PDF) London:; 2014. Available from: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statisticalreview/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf. Using the current value of a barrel of oil ($110 US$, converted to £70.89 – as of Aug 29 2013).
Equation 3. CO2 Emissions from Transporting between US & U. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : iomassenergycentre.org.uk. Estimated carbon dioxide emissions for freight transport. (Online) Available from: http://www.biomassenergycentre.org.uk/portal/page?_pageid=75,20043&_dad=portal&_schema=P ORTAL
Equation 4. CO2 Emissions in 2050 per Capita. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : Legislation.gov.uk. Climate Change Act 2008. (Online) Available from: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/part/1/crossheading/the-target-for-2050
Equation 5. Emissions included to UK CO2 Emissions. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : Sample I. UK import emissions are the highest in Europe, figures show. (Online) 8 March. 2010 Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/mar/08/carbon-emissionscarbonfootprints Equation 6. Tonnes of REE to produce UK's Fleet of turbines. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : Smith M. Lynas Corporation - Wind Turbines. (Online) Available from: http://www.lynascorp.com/pages/Wind-turbines.aspx
Equation 7. Total Harmful waste produced in China by UK's fleet. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : Hurst C. China's rare earth elements industry. Washington, D.C.: Institute for the Analysis of Global Security; 2010. P16 Equation 8. Amount of CO2 Produced through Turbine Construction. Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from : Daily Commercial News. Ontario wind power projects help drive concrete demand. (Online) 17 April. 2013 Available from: http://www.dcnonl.com/article/id54941/--ontario-windpower-projects-help-drive-concrete-demand Dhir R, Jappy T. Exploiting wastes in concrete. London: T. Telford; 1999.p8
Equation 9. £500bn Missed Opportunity? Barham D (Unpublished 2014) Data from: Instituteforsustainability.org.uk. A £500 billion opportunity. (Online) Available from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx
59
List of Tables
Tables
Table 1. Percentage of Electricity generated From Wind comparing 25/08/12 and 23/09/12. Barham D. (Unpublished 2013) Data from : Oxford University. GB Electricity Generation By Fuel Type. (Online) Available from: http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~dcurtis/NETA.html
Table 2. UK 2050 CO2 emissions in relation to some of the World's most industrially primitive nations. Barham D. (Unpublished 2013) Data from: International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2012.(PDF) Paris: IEA Publications.; 2012. Available from: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/kwes.pdf
Table 3. CO2 Emissions 1990-2012 with % Change. Barham D. (Unpublished 2013) Data from: Department Of Energy & Climate Change. 2012 UK greenhouse gas emissions, provisional figures and 2011 UK greenhouse gas emissions, final figures by fuel type and end-user. (PDF) UK Government.; 2013. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/193414/280313 _ghg_national_statistics_release_2012_provisional.pdf. Table 4. Showing Economic Recovery Effect on Emissions between 2011-12 & Percentage Change. MtCO2. Barham D. (Unpublished 2013) Data from : ibid table 3. Table 5. Applications for Rare Earth Element. Barham D. (Unpublished 2013)
Table 6. Sources of CO2 Emissions. Excludes Overseas Territories. Mt. Barham D. (Unpublished 2013) Data from : Department For Communities And Local Government. English Housing Survey. Stock Report 2008. (PDF) London: UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6703/1750754. pdf p4
Table 7. Breakdown of 2011 CO2 Emissions by End User. MtCO2e.Barham D. (Unpublished 2014) Data from : Department For Communities And Local Government. English Housing Survey. Stock Report 2008. (PDF) London: UK Gov.; 2014. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/6703/1750754. pdf p12 Table 8. 8-Policies Suggested by the Institute for Sustainability, Instituteforsustainability.org.uk. A ÂŁ500 billion opportunity. (Online) Available from: http://bob.instituteforsustainability.org.uk/knowledgebank/retrofitguides/guide1/Pages/Guide1_Page2.aspx
Table 9. EnerPHit Performance Criteria. Passivhaus.org.uk. Passivhaus:EnerPHit Standard. (Online) Available from: http://passivhaustrust.org.uk/UserFiles/File/Melissa%20Taylor%20Ecobuild%20EnerPHit%20presentation.pdf p.11
60