Market Commentary by Barry Cohen

Luxury homes sales in the GTA outperformed the overall market in an erratic 2022. Stability appears to be on the horizon for the year ahead.

I’ve been fortunate enough to guide my clients through eight different market corrections, but 2022 was certainly one of the most interesting years I’ve experienced in my career. The Bank of Canada’s aggressive approach to curbing inflation, by raising the overnight rate by 4.0 per cent over nine months, placed a serious damper on homebuying activity in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). There were 75,140 sales reported through the MLS system in 2022 down 38.2 per cent compared to the 2021 record of 121,639. What the media is not reporting is that the average price for the entire market is actually up 8.6 per cent from a year ago, though we saw prices rapidly rise 25 per cent in Q1, then fall by almost an equal amount in Q2. Prices appear to have leveled off in the second half of 2022, which has given me confidence in the overall health of the market ahead and suggests that we are either at the bottom or close to it.

The luxury market overall has held up relatively well, with sales over $2 million down just under 20 per cent year-over-year, when you consider that sales for the entire market were down 38.2 per cent. The average price for a detached house in Central Toronto in 2022 was $2,659,518, up 5 per cent from 2021. Condos in Central Toronto sold on average for $827,833, up 10 per cent from 2021. Also, our own calculations suggest that while sales over $2 million have softened, the average price of a luxury home priced over $2 million is at least on par or ahead of year ago levels in almost 80 per cent of 416 neighbourhoods we examined.

It’s clear that the rapid rise in interest rates caused a shock to consumers and made people nervous, resulting in a dramatic reduction in transactions. While buyers wait on the sidelines, inventory levels are down because sellers too have taken a wait and see approach. Though in a few rare cases I am seeing a lowball offer and great deal, for the most part sellers are being patient and buyers are frustrated that they can’t find anything to buy.

So what’s in store for 2023 and beyond?

Stability has been top of mind with today’s buyers and sellers and it does seem like we are starting to get some. As mentioned earlier, prices have been fairly flat for the last six months. The limited inventory levels, largely responsible for the run-up in housing values over the pandemic, continue to persist throughout much of the 416 and to a lesser extent, the 905, keeping housing values on an even keel. Consumers are getting increasingly comfortable with interest rates of around 6 per cent being the new normal and as a result, I believe we will start to see more inventory come to the market, which will result in more transactions and likely greater price flexibility. Most importantly, at the time of writing this letter, the Bank of Canada just raised the overnight rate by another 25 bps to 4.5 per cent and stated that they are likely to pause their monetary tightening policy for some time, signalling to many that the worst is behind us. This should get many buyers and sellers off the fence and into the market.

Though inventory will rise, we still have a dramatic housing shortage. Our immigration target to add approximately 1.45 million new Canadians by year-end 2025, most of whom will settle in the Greater Toronto Area, will put a further strain on prices. Given that approximately 60 per cent of immigrants are admitted in the economic class, the future bodes well for the Greater Toronto housing market. We know that economic growth will be tempered in 2023, but life events will continue to occur, prompting the sale or purchase of real estate.

I anticipate that prices in early 2023 will remain stable, with a chance of modest seasonal increases throughout the year. I do believe that the lowest inventory period will be the first three months of the year as households continue to adjust to the new reality and sellers wait for the spring market. Consequently, this should be the most opportune time for sellers as they face very little competition and buyers armed with annual bonuses and New Year’s resolutions.

If you would like to learn how our clients reaped values well beyond the market or merely wish to discuss the year ahead and the opportunities I see in more detail, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me or anyone on my talented team. You can reach us at 416-223-1818, we’re never too busy to talk real estate.

Wishing you a happy and healthy 2023,

Barry Cohen