Fleet Report

NEW MODELS SPUR DELIVERIES FLEET REPORT

The global business aircraft fleet has grown to over 38,400 units, with North

America being by far the largest

market for the industry. BRIC countries, which were very promising only a few years ago, don’t show any sign of dynamic

growth. The pre-owned aircraft

market is good for sellers as the

inventory for sale is near record-low

levels, while the demand is high,

reports Volker K. Thomalla

The data for this report provided by JetNet LLC, the leading provider of aviation market information, shows that in terms of business aircraft deliveries, 2019 has been a good year. Despite several challenges like the ongoing political and economic turmoil in Venezuela, the US and China trade dispute and delays in new aircraft types entering the market, the global business aircraft fleet grew by 1.73% from 37,792 units at the end of 2018 to 38,448 units on December 31st 2019. A year before, the growth rate was at 1.4% only. This fleet size incorporates 22,717 business jets (including 317

GROWTH The global business aircraft fleet grew by 1.73% in 2019.

TOP TEN BUSINESS FLEETS BY COUNTRY

United States . . . . . . . . . .21339 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1539 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1414 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1359 Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . .765 Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . .750 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .628 United Kingdom . . . . . . . . .502 France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .450 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .447 bizliners) and 15,731 turboprop aircraft. This fleet mix is stable and about the same as in previous years.

JetNet’s market intelligence is the most comprehensive, commercially available survey on the market. The company invites each quarter a selected number of business aircraft operators to take part in the survey. About 500 are responding each quarter, which gives the researchers a sufficiently sized data base to analyze the market trends.

2019 has been a seller’s market. At the end of September 2019, 9.8 percent of the worldwide business jet fleet was up for sale. This number is even below the lowest pre-crisis level in November 2007. The highest number of preowned jets for sale ever recorded was in August 2009, when 17.7 percent of the fleet were on the market. Inventories of pre-owned business jets for sale have increased and are now headed to the 2,200 mark at 2,167 for sale. JetNet explains: “Historically, there has been a one-year lag in new business jet deliveries versus preowned sale transactions. However, we find ourselves on new ground, as used inventory levels were once correlated with new sales such that most new owners needed to sell their existing aircraft before a new delivery took place.

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MFG/MODEL TOTAL EUROPE AIRBUS A310-200 1 1 AIRBUS A310-300 16 9 AIRBUS A320-200 15 2 AIRBUS A330-200 2 0 AIRBUS A340-200 7 0 AIRBUS A340-300X 2 2 AIRBUS A340-500 4 0 AIRBUS A340-600 2 0 AIRBUS ACJ318 20 6 AIRBUS ACJ319 64 26 AIRBUS ACJ319neo 1 1 AIRBUS ACJ320 14 0 AIRBUS ACJ320neo 1 1 AIRBUS ACJ330 3 0 ASTRA 1125 28 0 ASTRA 1125SP 31 0 ASTRA 1125SPX 57 3 AVRO RJ-70 2 2 BAE 146-100 4 3 BAE 146-200 2 0 BEECHJET 400 34 1 BEECHJET 400A 264 17 BOEING 707-120B 3 0 BOEING 707-320 7 1 BOEING 707-320B 10 2 BOEING 707-320C 17 1 BOEING 727-100 14 0 BOEING 727-200 1 0 BOEING 727-200 ADVANCED 16 2 BOEING 737-200 4 0 BOEING 737-200 ADVANCED 13 1 BOEING 737-300 9 3 BOEING 737-400 3 0 BOEING 737-500 5 0 BOEING 737-700 2 0 BOEING 737-700C 9 0 BOEING 737-800 7 1 BOEING 747-200B 2 0 BOEING 747-300 1 0 BOEING 747-400 6 0 BOEING 747-400M 1 0 BOEING 747-8I 3 0 BOEING 747SP 8 0 BOEING 757-200 17 2 BOEING 767-200 1 0 BOEING 767-200ER 7 0 BOEING 767-300ER 4 1 BOEING 767-400ER 1 0 BOEING 777-200 1 0 BOEING 777-200ER 2 0 BOEING 777-200LR 1 0 BOEING 777-300ER 2 0 BOEING 787-8 7 0 BOEING 787-9 2 1 BOEING BBJ 128 23 BOEING BBJ MAX 8 2 0 BOEING BBJ2 22 6 BOEING BBJ3 7 1 BOEING BBJ747-8 4 0 BOEING BBJ787-8 1 0 BOEING BBJ787-9 1 0 BOMBARDIER CRJ100 5 0 BOMBARDIER CRJ200 12 5 BOMBARDIER CRJ700 4 0 CHALLENGER 300 453 32 CHALLENGER 350 317 49 CHALLENGER 600 62 0 CHALLENGER 601-1A 35 1 CHALLENGER 601-3A 117 9 CHALLENGER 601-3R 55 3 CHALLENGER 604 352 55 CHALLENGER 605 285 45 CHALLENGER 650 94 22 CHALLENGER 800 9 0 CHALLENGER 850 71 29 CHALLENGER 870 9 1 CIRRUS VISION SF50 154 12 CITATION 500 182 12 CITATION 525 340 62 CITATION BRAVO 311 34 CITATION CJ1 193 31 CITATION CJ1+ 102 26 CITATION CJ2 233 45 CITATION CJ2+ 220 59 CITATION CJ3 409 38 CITATION CJ3+ 147 11 CITATION CJ4 313 41 CITATION ENCORE 160 3 CITATION ENCORE+ 65 5 CITATION EXCEL 354 22 CITATION I 22 6 CITATION I/SP 273 25 CITATION II 497 44 CITATION II/SP 65 11 CITATION III 173 10 CITATION LATITUDE 219 33 CITATION LONGITUDE 5 0 CITATION M2 234 35 CITATION MUSTANG 464 101 CITATION S/II 138 3 CITATION SOVEREIGN 346 26 CITATION SOVEREIGN+ 86 9 CITATION ULTRA 266 6 CITATION V 247 6 CITATION VI 35 3 CITATION VII 113 11 CITATION X 306 19 CITATION X+ 31 0 CITATION XLS 328 60 CITATION XLS+ 275 71 DIAMOND I 1 0 DIAMOND IA 35 2 DORNIER 328JET 11 3 DORNIER ENVOY 3 10 4 ECLIPSE 550 31 4 ECLIPSE EA500 250 21 EMBRAER ERJ-135 3 0 EMBRAER LEGACY 450 50 5 EMBRAER LEGACY 500 79 10 EMBRAER LEGACY 600 168 50 EMBRAER LEGACY 650 95 30 EMBRAER LEGACY 650E 9 7 EMBRAER LEGACY SHUTTLE 18 1 EMBRAER LINEAGE 1000 16 2 EMBRAER LINEAGE 1000E 10 3 EMBRAER PHENOM 100 289 34 EMBRAER PHENOM 100E 46 8 EMBRAER PHENOM 100EV 34 2 EMBRAER PHENOM 300 470 78 EMBRAER PHENOM 300E 51 9 EMBRAER PRAETOR 500 1 0 EMBRAER PRAETOR 600 11 3 FALCON 10 86 7 FALCON 100 23 5 FALCON 200 24 3 FALCON 2000 223 19 FALCON 2000DX 4 0 FALCON 2000EX 26 2 FALCON 2000EX EASy 103 27 FALCON 2000LX 131 25 FALCON 2000LXS 93 25 FALCON 2000S 41 11 FALCON 20C 53 19 FALCON 20C-5 14 3 FALCON 20D 21 7 FALCON 20D-5 2 0 FALCON 20E 31 14 FALCON 20E-5 11 4 FALCON 20F 66 6 FALCON 20F-5 62 0 FALCON 20G 5 5 FALCON 50 193 22 FALCON 50-40 7 0 FALCON 50EX 100 9 FALCON 7X 275 100 FALCON 8X 51 28 FALCON 900 166 20 FALCON 900C 25 3 FALCON 900DX 24 7 FALCON 900EX 114 15 FALCON 900EX EASy 118 21 FALCON 900LX 75 19 FOKKER 100 3 2 FOKKER 70 1 0 GLOBAL 5000 228 53 GLOBAL 6000 305 108 GLOBAL 7500 8 3 GLOBAL EXPRESS 143 31 GLOBAL EXPRESS XRS 153 43 GULFSTREAM G100 22 2 GULFSTREAM G150 125 6 GULFSTREAM G200 238 27 GULFSTREAM G280 184 13 GULFSTREAM G300 13 0 GULFSTREAM G350 11 0 GULFSTREAM G400 23 1 GULFSTREAM G450 350 25 GULFSTREAM G500 28 2 GULFSTREAM G-500 9 0 GULFSTREAM G550 580 67 GULFSTREAM G600 6 1 GULFSTREAM G650 245 48 GULFSTREAM G650ER 147 14 GULFSTREAM G-II 60 1 GULFSTREAM G-IIB 23 0 GULFSTREAM G-III 125 1 GULFSTREAM G-IV 175 3 GULFSTREAM G-IVSP 296 10 GULFSTREAM G-V 191 7 HAWKER 1000A 39 3 HAWKER 1000B 6 3 HAWKER 125-1A 6 1 HAWKER 125-1AS 5 0 HAWKER 125-1B 10 9 HAWKER 125-3A 1 0 HAWKER 125-3A/RA 4 0 HAWKER 125-3A/RAS 1 0 HAWKER 125-3AS 1 0 HAWKER 125-3B 7 0 HAWKER 125-3B/RAS 1 0 HAWKER 125-400A 12 0 HAWKER 125-400AS 19 1 HAWKER 125-400B 12 0 HAWKER 125-400BS 3 0 HAWKER 125-600A 9 0 HAWKER 125-600AS 5 1 HAWKER 125-600B 2 0 HAWKER 125-700A 113 3 HAWKER 125-700B 23 13 HAWKER 4000 69 4 HAWKER 400XP 218 14 HAWKER 400XPR 5 0 HAWKER 750 45 11 HAWKER 800A 185 4 HAWKER 800B 43 5

HAWKER 800XP 397 28 HAWKER 800XPI 51 8 HAWKER 850XP 97 12 HAWKER 900XP 180 15 HONDAJET ELITE 34 3 HONDAJET HA-420 94 11 JET COMMANDER 1121 5 0 JET COMMANDER 1121B 3 0 JETSTAR 731 4 0 JETSTAR 8 3 0 JETSTAR II 12 0 LEARJET 23 7 0 LEARJET 24 13 0 LEARJET 24A 1 0 LEARJET 24B 10 0 LEARJET 24D 34 0 LEARJET 24E 9 0 LEARJET 24F 8 0 LEARJET 25 8 0 LEARJET 25B 38 1 LEARJET 25C 6 0 LEARJET 25D 93 0 LEARJET 25G 3 0 LEARJET 28 4 0 LEARJET 29 3 0 LEARJET 31 29 1 LEARJET 31A 194 8 LEARJET 35 31 0 LEARJET 35A 391 48 LEARJET 36 15 0 LEARJET 36A 37 4 LEARJET 40 37 8 LEARJET 40XR 91 5 LEARJET 45 235 22 LEARJET 45XR 203 13 LEARJET 55 101 6 LEARJET 55B 7 1 LEARJET 55C 11 0 LEARJET 60 290 17 LEARJET 60XR 112 14 LEARJET 70 14 0 LEARJET 75 127 11 MCDD DC-8-62H 2 1 MCDD DC-9-10 5 0 MCDD MD-81 1 0 MCDD MD-83 2 1 MCDD MD-87 11 2 NEXTANT 400XT 27 10 NEXTANT 400XTi 33 8 PILATUS PC-24 50 12 PREMIER I 120 17 PREMIER IA 155 26 SABRELINER 40 6 1 SABRELINER 40A 17 0 SABRELINER 40EL 4 0 SABRELINER 40R 1 0 SABRELINER 60 23 0 SABRELINER 60A 2 0 SABRELINER 60EL 2 1 SABRELINER 60ELXM 19 1 SABRELINER 60EX 2 0 SABRELINER 60SCELXM 2 0 SABRELINER 65 55 0 SABRELINER 80 16 0 SABRELINER 80A 2 0 SABRELINER 80SC 5 0 SUKHOI SBJ 4 0 SYBERJET SJ30-2 4 0 WESTWIND 1 76 0 WESTWIND 1123 5 0 WESTWIND 1124 24 0 WESTWIND 2 63 0 T otal Jets 22,282 2,808

Turboprops Fleet Europe 8.6 % World 91.4 %

Total Fleet Europe 10.8 % World 89.2 %

TURBOPROPS

MFG/MODEL TOTAL EUROPE AVANTI EVO 10 7 AVANTI II 124 53 AVANTI P180 89 40 CARAVAN 208 484 41 CARAVAN 208B 1,572 86 CARAVAN 208B EX 498 15 CHEYENNE 400 39 4 CHEYENNE I 161 12 CHEYENNE IA 16 3 CHEYENNE II 303 31 CHEYENNE III 67 5 CHEYENNE IIIA 45 7 CHEYENNE IIXL 71 6 CONQUEST I 201 16 CONQUEST II 292 6 DE HAVILLAND DHC-2T 59 1 DE HAVILLAND DHC-3T 89 0 GULFSTREAM G-I 43 0 JETSTREAM 31 64 9 JETSTREAM 32 109 18 JETSTREAM 41 78 23 KING AIR 100 41 0 KING AIR 200 616 39 KING AIR 200C 26 1 KING AIR 200T 17 3 KING AIR 250 239 40 KING AIR 300 199 3 KING AIR 300LW 18 5 KING AIR 350 668 30 KING AIR 350C 76 7 KING AIR 350ER 41 7 KING AIR 350i 438 25 KING AIR 350iER 10 3 KING AIR 90 18 0 KING AIR A/B90 11 0 KING AIR A100 90 2 KING AIR A200 202 3 KING AIR A90 62 1 KING AIR A90-1 108 2 KING AIR B100 110 1 KING AIR B200 1,065 82 KING AIR B200C 117 5 KING AIR B200CGT 1 0 KING AIR B200CT 7 0 KING AIR B200GT 114 9 KING AIR B200SE 5 1 KING AIR B200T 21 1 KING AIR B90 87 3 KING AIR C90 398 28 KING AIR C90-1 39 0 KING AIR C90A 217 11 KING AIR C90B 412 21 KING AIR C90GT 94 1 KING AIR C90GTi 120 12 KING AIR C90GTx 189 14 KING AIR C90SE 16 0 KING AIR E90 266 12 KING AIR F90 184 5 KING AIR F90-1 29 2 KODIAK 100 239 10 MERLIN 300 9 1 MERLIN IIB 26 4 MERLIN III 19 1 MERLIN IIIA 33 6 MERLIN IIIB 51 4 MERLIN IIIC 20 3 MERLIN IV 5 1 MERLIN IV-A 12 1 MERLIN IV-C 16 4 MITSUBISHI MARQUISE 81 1 MITSUBISHI MU-2C 16 0 MITSUBISHI MU-2D 1 0 MITSUBISHI MU-2F 26 0 MITSUBISHI MU-2G 1 0 MITSUBISHI MU-2J 16 0 MITSUBISHI MU-2K 35 5 MITSUBISHI MU-2L 10 0 MITSUBISHI MU-2M 18 3 MITSUBISHI MU-2N 23 0 MITSUBISHI MU-2P 26 2 MITSUBISHI MU-2S 17 0 MITSUBISHI SOLITAIRE 39 2 PILATUS PC-12 NG 888 169 PILATUS PC-12/45 556 33 PILATUS PC-12/47 199 11 PIPER M500 79 12 PIPER M600 105 11 PIPER MALIBU JETPROP 275 64 PIPER MERIDIAN 546 86 SOCATA TBM-700A 102 33 SOCATA TBM-700B 81 9 SOCATA TBM-700C1 5 3 SOCATA TBM-700C2 95 8 SOCATA TBM-850 326 44 SOCATA TBM-900 111 13 SOCATA TBM-910 44 11 SOCATA TBM-930 129 13 SOCATA TBM-940 10 0 STARSHIP 2000A 5 1 TURBO COMMANDER 1000 89 1 TURBO COMMANDER 690 40 1 TURBO COMMANDER 690A 168 8 TURBO COMMANDER 690B 172 4 TURBO COMMANDER 840 93 3 TURBO COMMANDER 900 31 0 TURBO COMMANDER 980 58 3 T otal TurboProp 15,731 1,351 Grand Total 38,013 4,159 © JETN ET LLC

*Executive aircraft are airliner aircraft converted to private business use, excluding models originally meant for business use.

NORTH AMERICA Country Total Executive* Jet Turb . Antigua and Barbuda 1 0 1 0 Aruba 3 0 2 1 Bahamas 35 0 15 20 Barbados 5 0 4 1 Belize 25 0 3 22 Bermuda 8 0 8 0 Canada 1332 10 532 790 Cayman Islands 15 0 14 1 Costa Rica 45 0 11 34 Dominican Republic 61 0 42 19 El Salvador 9 1 4 4 Greenland 3 0 0 3 Guadeloupe 5 0 0 5 Guatemala 113 0 36 77 Haiti 4 0 0 4 Honduras 35 0 8 27 Jamaica 9 0 7 2 Mexico 1439 6 974 459 Nicaragua 5 0 2 3 Panama 98 0 33 65 Puerto Rico 45 0 22 23 Saint Kitts and Nevis 2 0 0 2 Saint Lucia 1 0 1 0 Saint Vincent-Grenadines 4 0 2 2 Sint Maarten 3 0 2 1 Trinidad and Tobago 2 0 2 0 Turks and Caicos Islands 3 0 2 1 United States 21888 90 13797 8001 Virgin Islands (British) 17 2 10 5 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 19 0 12 7 West Indies 6 0 1 5 T otal 25240 1 09 1 5547 9584

EUROPE Country Total Executive* Jet Turb. Albania 1 0 1 0 Austria 208 0 165 43 Belarus 4 0 2 2 Belgium 99 0 57 42 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 0 3 0 Bulgaria 23 1 13 9 Channel Islands 1 0 0 1 Croatia 13 0 8 5 Cyprus 16 0 12 4 Czech Republic 107 0 66 41 Denmark 78 1 57 20 Estonia 16 0 9 7 Finland 30 0 16 14 France 482 6 272 204 France Metropolitan 1 0 1 0 Germany 783 8 495 280 Gibraltar 1 0 1 0 Greece 38 0 21 17 Guernsey 5 1 2 2 Hungary 21 0 13 8 Iceland 8 0 0 8 Ireland 30 0 20 10 Isle of Man 34 0 21 13 Italy 180 0 112 68 Jersey 0 0 0 0 Kosovo 1 0 1 0 Latvia 8 0 8 0 Liechtenstein 2 1 0 1 Lithuania 11 2 9 0 Luxembourg 79 1 39 39 Macedonia 2 0 2 0 Malta 138 3 128 7 Monaco 1 0 0 1 Montenegro 3 0 2 1 Netherlands 87 1 42 44 Norway 52 0 21 31 Poland 64 0 42 22 Portugal 131 0 126 5 Romania 20 1 13 6 Russian Federation 244 4 207 33 San Marino 26 0 23 3 Scotland 5 0 0 5 Serbia 31 0 24 7 Slovak Republic 26 2 19 5 Slovenia 15 0 11 4 Spain 148 3 108 37 Sweden 81 1 40 40 Switzerland 245 3 160 82 Ukraine 32 0 27 5 United Kingdom 525 9 341 175 T otal 41 59 48 2760 1 351

AUSTRALIA & OCEANIA Country Total Executive* Jet Turb. Australia 635 2 202 431 British Indian Ocean Terr 1 0 1 0 Cook Islands 1 0 1 0 Fiji 6 0 0 6 French Polynesia 6 0 1 5 Guam 4 0 0 4 Kiribati 0 0 0 0 Marshall Islands 1 0 1 0 New Caledonia 7 0 2 5 New Zealand 81 1 18 62 Northern Mariana Islands 1 0 0 1 Palau 1 0 0 1 Papua New Guinea 28 0 3 25 Saipan 1 0 0 1 Samoa 3 0 0 3 Solomon Islands 1 0 1 0 Tahiti 0 0 0 0 Vanuatu 1 0 0 1 T otal 778 3 230 545

SOUTH AMERICA Country Total Executive* Jet Turb. Argentina 359 1 186 172 Bolivia 31 1 8 22 Brazil 1566 2 739 825 Chile 133 3 49 81 Colombia 344 0 47 297 Curacao 3 0 0 3 Ecuador 45 0 21 24 Guyana 21 0 1 20 Paraguay 90 1 18 71 Peru 52 1 11 40 Suriname 7 0 0 7 Uruguay 10 0 2 8 Venezuela 739 1 316 422 T otal 3400 1 0 1 398 1 992

AFRICA Country Total Executive* Jet Turb . Algeria 42 0 12 30 Angola 74 4 29 41 Benin 1 0 0 1 Botswana 63 0 5 58 Burkina Faso 6 0 2 4 Burundi 1 0 1 0 Cameroon 8 1 2 5 Canary Islands 2 0 2 0 Cape Verde 3 0 3 0 Central African Republic 6 0 0 6 Chad 9 1 3 5 Comoros 1 0 0 1 Congo 8 0 4 4 Cote d''Ivoire 12 1 3 8 Dem. Republic of Congo 29 3 13 13 Djibouti 2 1 1 0 Egypt 44 1 39 4 Equatorial Guinea 5 1 4 0 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 Ethiopia 11 0 0 11 Gabon 10 1 6 3 Gambia 4 2 2 0 Ghana 12 0 7 5 Guinea 1 0 0 1 Guinea-Bissau 1 0 0 1 Kenya 137 2 11 124 Liberia 2 0 0 2 Libya 15 1 9 5 Madagascar 23 0 2 21 Malawi 4 0 0 4 Mali Republic 6 1 1 4 Mauritania 7 1 0 6 Mauritius 4 0 1 3 Morocco 56 1 37 18 Mozambique 11 0 4 7 Namibia 40 0 10 30 Niger 8 0 1 7 Nigeria 109 3 91 15 Sao Tome and Principe 1 0 1 0 Senegal 12 1 2 9 Seychelles Islands 1 0 0 1 Sierra Leone 1 0 0 1 South Africa 418 1 143 274 South Sudan 4 0 0 4 Sudan 9 0 6 3 Swaziland 2 2 0 0 Tanzania 96 0 4 92 Togo 8 1 3 4 Tunisia 3 0 3 0 Uganda 25 0 1 24 Zambia 26 0 3 23 Zimbabwe 17 0 2 15 T otal 1 402 30 474 898

ASIA Country Total Executive* Jet Turb. Afghanistan 54 0 0 54 Armenia 1 0 1 0 Azerbaijan 12 1 11 0 Bahrain 12 5 5 2 Bangladesh 8 0 1 7 Brunei 5 3 2 0 Cambodia 2 0 2 0 China 464 4 287 173 Georgia 2 0 2 0 Hong Kong 123 0 116 7 India 235 4 147 84 Indonesia 160 0 48 112 Iran 42 5 21 16 Iraq 18 0 1 17 Israel 98 14 46 38 Japan 270 4 95 171 Jordan 26 1 16 9 Kazakhstan 38 1 31 6 Kuwait 27 4 20 3 Kyrgyzstan 1 0 1 0 Laos 2 0 0 2 Lebanon 18 1 14 3 Macau 7 1 6 0 Malaysia 94 2 64 28 Maldives 1 0 0 1 Mongolia 6 0 0 6 Myanmar 3 0 1 2 Nepal 7 0 0 7 Oman 14 3 11 0 Pakistan 58 1 33 24 Philippines 121 3 57 61 Qatar 36 3 32 1 Saudi Arabia 175 27 119 29 Singapore 71 1 59 11 South Korea 51 2 35 14 Sri Lanka 6 0 0 6 Syria 2 0 2 0 Taiwan 34 2 26 6 Thailand 86 3 33 50 Turkey 157 3 116 38 Turkmenistan 5 0 5 0 United Arab Emirates 135 5 100 30 Uzbekistan 3 3 0 0 Vietnam 11 0 4 7 Yemen 2 0 0 2 T otal 2703 1 06 1 570 1 027 ON DUTY A Pilatus PC-12 single-engine turboprop in Tanzania.

201 8 201 9 Unit Change Growth Worldwide 37,792 38,448 656 1.7% United States 21,339 21,888 549 2.6% Africa 1,347 1,402 55 4.1% Asia 2,670 2,704 34 1.3% Europe 3,981 4,160 179 4.5% North America 24,705 25,240 535 2.2% Australia & Oceania 766 778 12 1.6% South America 3,409 3,400 -9 -0.3%

Of course, this is still true, but preowned inventory levels are no longer a reliable indicator of new sales. This relationship may no longer hold as true, due to the sharp decline in the realized used aircraft residual values. The price differential of new versus used has made used more attractive. However, most aircraft brokers will explain that the reduction of pre-owned sales in the first 9 months of 2019 is not so much about declining demand as it is about a lack of aircraft to choose from for the discerning buyer at the right price.”

DELIVERY Daher’s Kodiak and TBM aircraft (center right). The first medevac PC-24 was handed over to RFDS Australia (bottom right).

JetNet forecasts deliveries of 7,050 business jets between 2019 and 2028 worth US$214 billion. This number excludes single-engine, personal jets like the Cirrus SF50 Vision. The overall outlook is positive. “In 2019, the OEM’s backlogs rebounded for the first time post-crisis”, said Rollie Vincent, JetNet iQ creator and director. Asked for their most popular aircraft, the survey participants named the Bombardier Challenger 350, the Pilatus Aircraft PC-24 and the Gulfstream G500.

36 - BART: FEBRUARY - APRIL - 2020 Honeywell Aerospace traditionally publishes its Business Aviation Outlook on the eve of NBAA-BACE, which took place in October last year in Las Vegas. The company’s 28 th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook came up with a surprise. Despite high aircraft deliveries in 2019, the delivery forecast for the period 2019 to 2028 was lower than a year before. Honeywell’s market researchers see an increase in business jet deliveries in the near term future, mainly spurred by new airplane models which are in develop

ment or right before entry-into-service. “Production ramp up on many new business jet platforms are expected to lead to a 7 percent increase in deliveries in 2020, following a strong projected growth in 2019 over 2018 aircraft deliveries,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace, in Las Vegas. “We are confident that these new and innovative aircraft models will support solid growth in the short term and have a continuing impact on new business jet purchases in the midterm and long term.”

But during the forecast period, the company sees deliveries of 7,600 business jets worth US$248 billion. That’s about 100 aircraft less compared to the forecast a year before. The predictions of Honeywell’s market specialists for the next five years have been proven to be quite accurate in the past as they are based on surveys with over 1,500 operators worldwide who give the market researcher a good database to draw conclusions from.

One of the key findings of the latest outlook is that operators plan to replace about 17 percent of their fleets over the next five years. This represents a decrease of three percent compared to 2018. Of the total purchase plans for new business jets over the next five years, 35 percent are expected to occur in the first two years of the survey, with 57 percent of purchase plans realized by year three. This is 5 percentage points higher than last year’s survey. But not all operators want to purchase new equipment. The survey shows that 32 percent of fleet replacements or expansion should be made with preowned jets. This number is 8 percentage points up from 2018. According to Honeywell – and not surprisingly – North America will keep its position as key market for business jets in the foreseeable future. The researchers expect 60 percent of all business aircraft deliveries in the next five years being headed to North American customers. This is 2 percent lower than last year. Europe follows with 19 percent and the Asia/Pacific region with 10 percent. Latin America should take 7 percent of all deliveries while Middle East/Africa will account for 4 percent.

BUSINESS JET DELIVERY FORECAST IN UNITS

Honeywell International

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Honeywell International

PURCHASE PLAN BY AIRCRAFT CLASS

Big Cabin 73% total valuation (Large through business liner)

42%

Midsize 19% total valuation (Medium to Super-Midsize) 29%

Small Cabin 8% total valuation

29%

Honeywell International

AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

Honeywell International

LEAD North America will remain to be key market for bizjets in the foreseeable future.

NEWEST The supermidsize, cleansheet Cessna Longitude (left). Dassault’s fastest-ever selling bizjet Falcon 7X (right).

At the end of 2019, 57 percent or 21,888 business aircraft – jet and turboprop – were based in the US alone. The second-largest fleet is based in Brazil. The country’s fleet has seen in increase by only 17 aircraft in the last 12 months. Mexico is home to 1,439 business aircraft, securing the global number three position. Canada follows with 1,332 aircraft. Venezuela hasn’t overcome its deep political crisis which hurts the economy and has spurred hyper-inflation. It comes as a surprise that the country has lost only 25 aircraft during 2019. A much higher unit reduction could have been expected. The overall Venezuelan fleet stood at 739 aircraft on December 31 st

, 2019. The German business aircraft fleet grew by 33 units to 783 business aircraft positioning the country for the first time on the fifth rank in the worldwide fleet ranking, changing ranks with Venezuela. But purchase expectations in Germany were lower than in 2018. This could be linked to Brexit anxiety or to the economy in Germany. Australia (635), the United Kingdom (525), France (482) and China (464) filled the next ranks.

The UK’s fleet size increase came as a surprise for the market researchers. The UK’s exit from the European Union could have easily been followed by an exodus of its business aircraft fleet into EU countries and with that a reduction in size. But the opposite happened. The fleet grew by 4,5 percent from 502 aircraft to 525 aircraft within a year. The UK’s aircraft owners and operators seem to be well prepared for Brexit and have adapted their business models accordingly. They see more opportunities than risks in Brexit and have invested in an expansion of their fleets. craft as well as a number of bizliners are extremely popular in the region. Ongoing political tensions between the different players in the Gulf region can hurt business aircraft sales significantly. Saudi-Arabia is the largest market in the region with an installed fleet of 175 turbine-powered business aircraft. Most popular are large-cabin and ultra long-range aircraft. Qatar features a small, but important fleet. Qatar Executive is the international launch customer of the G500 and G600 and one of the launch customers of the G700. Qatari nationals are not allowed

But to put the numbers of China, France and the UK in perspective: Each of these countries total business fleets are smaller than the number of aircraft by which the US fleet grew in the last year. While there is still a huge potential for business aircraft sales in China, there is no indication that this potential will be exploited anytime soon. Same is true for India, which features only a fleet of 235 aircraft, 18 aircraft less than a year before. India’s airport infrastructure does not support a huge growth of its business aircraft fleet with the booming airline industry taking up every square inch of available space at Indian airports. Without a major change in the airport infrastructure, the Indian business aircraft fleet simply has no space to grow.

Business aircraft manufacturers monitor the situation in the Gulf region closely. Unit-wise the region’s fleet is only 4,0 percent of the world’s fleet, but value-wise it’s a different story as long-range, large-cabin airto enter several neighboring countries or to use their airspace due to a conflict with Saudi-Arabia. If this conflict remains unsolved, it will have a negative impact on Business Aviation in the region.

Honeywell has asked operators what main factors influence purchasing decisions. The operators have clear priorities: aircraft performance is the main factor, followed by brand experience, cabin and range. But survey participants also named direct operating costs and customer support experience as important factors in their jet purchasing decision process.

The market seems to have a hunger for bigger jets. 42 percent of the survey’s participants that wanted to buy new aircraft within the outlook’s forecast period, mentioned that they were looking for large-cabin jets. This trend towards larger jets is growing. 29 percent indicated that they wanted to buy midsize jets and another 29 percent wanted to opt for light jets.

Value-wise the epicenter of new aircraft sales will clearly be the upper end of the market. About 73 percent of the valuation over the forecast period are accounted to the large-cabin segment while only 27 percent are left over for the midsize and light jet segments, which account for the majority of units. Asked for a specific model that the operators would intend to buy, the Bombardier Challenger 350 was the most mentioned type.

The number of business aircraft types has grown over recent years to about 40 different aircraft types – the highest number of certified models in production ever in history – and will continue to grow. Market fragmentation is continuing which will increase the competition and could lower the profit margins for the manufacturers. Among the new aircraft types coming to the market in the foreseeable future are the all-new ultra long-range Gulfstream G700, which was unveiled at the NBAA-BACE 2019 in Las Vegas. “The Gulfstream G700 takes the very best elements from our most innovative products and unites them with cutting-edge advances to create an allnew, advanced-technology aircraft that redefines safety, comfort and range at speed,” said Gulfstream President Mark Burns. The G700 offers their operators a 7,500 nautical miles (13,890 kilometers) range at Mach 0.85 or 6,400 nautical miles range at Mach 0.90. Powered by two new Rolls-Royce Pearl 700 turbofans and equipped with newly designed winglets, the aircraft will be the largest business jet ever built by the Savannah, Georgia, based manufacturer.

Dassault Aviation of Saint-Cloud near Paris in France will bring two new aircraft to the market within the next years. The ultra long-range Falcon 6X is in final assembly in Bordeaux-Mérignac and should fly in 2021. The OEM expects certification and entry- into-service in 2022. But Dassault has already started working on another new aircraft project. Eric Trappier, the company’s chief executive officer, has announced at NBAA-BACE in Las Vegas, that the designers are busily working on another aircraft project. He did not mention any details, but he announced that more details of the new project will be unveiled at NBAA-BACE 2020.

Brian Foley, the founder of Brian Foley Associates, a consultancy and strategic research company, is skeptic about the market being flooded with too many aircraft models. He stated: “There are too many business jet models chasing too few buyers and something will likely give. Fortyone models of new business jets from 7 manufacturers vie for just 700 total worldwide industry sales per year. In response to tepid demand, leading makers such as Textron Aviation’s Cessna division and General Dynamics’ Gulfstream unit announced layoffs in late 2019. With such a relatively small market and workforce cutbacks, it wouldn’t be surprising for a least one of the participants to call it quits. The last culling of the herd hasn’t occurred since Hawker Beechcraft went bankrupt a few years ago. Cessna ended up buying its ruins and 4 Hawker Beechcraft jet models were permanently removed from the market – hardly enough to make a dent in the cornucopia of business jet models to choose from.”

The impact of the ADS-B mandate in the US and in Europe cannot be seen in the 2019 figures. But there’s no doubt that a number of older aircraft will be taken off the registry because the cost of retrofitting them with new avionics is much higher than their market value.

All market forecasts are very cautious about the impact that supersonic business jets might have on the industry. Aerion Supersonic has been working on its AS2 project for quite a while now but seem to have reached a point where all previous work comes to fruition. In the last quarter

Honeywell International

of 2019, the Reno, Nevada, company has announced several partnerships with industry-leading suppliers like GE Aviation, Safran Group, Aernnova and Potez Aéronautique. Aerion has also teamed with Boeing to develop the aircraft and to advance the supersonic market.

Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works are also working on a supersonic civil aircraft. They are assembling in Palmdale, California, NASA’s research aircraft X-59 QueSST (Quiet SuperSonic Technology Demonstrator) which should be flying as early as 2021. NASA expects the X-59’s special shape to reduce the shockwave that creates the supersonic boom to a point, where it’s barely audible on the ground. It will be the X-59’s job to validate those theories, and once that’s done, the airplane will be flown over several US communities which still need to be selected, so residents below can provide reactions to what they might or might not hear. That data will then be passed on to the FAA and international regulators, who will use that information to help rewrite the rules so that supersonic flight over land is regulated based on noise levels and not the arbitrary speed of Mach 1. When that happens, a major hurdle will be cleared for the industry to move forward for establishing a new market for commercial supersonic flight over land, opening the door for a new era of Business Aviation which will for sure have an impact on the overall business jet market. “We think that a supersonic business jet will take-off before Urban Air Mobility will be a reality,” said Rollie Vincent from JetNet LLC.

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FORECAST Europe's share of global demand over the next 5 years is estimated to be 19%, while Asia’s is 10%.