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January 2018
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DEPLETED HOUSING MARKET TO SEE INVENTORY GROWTH IN 2018
Las Vegas No.1 in sales and price growth among top 100 largest metro forecasts Inventory constraints that have fueled a sharp rise in home prices and made it difficult for buyers to gain a foothold in the market will begin to ease next year as part of broad and continued market improvements, according to the realtor.com®2018 National Housing Forecast released today by the online real estate information and services destination. The easing of the inventory shortage, which is expected to result in more manageable increases in home prices and a modest acceleration of home sales, is being predicted based on developments first detected by realtor.com® late this
summer. The annual forecast, which is among the industry’s bellwethers in tracking and analyzing major trends in the housing market, also foresees an increase in millennial mortgages and strong sales growth in Southern markets. The wildcard in 2018 will be the impact of tax reform legislation currently being debated in Congress. “Next year will set the stage for a significant inflection point in the housing shortage,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com®. “Inventory increases will be felt in higher priced segments after spring home buying season, which we expect to take hold and begin to provide relief for buyers and drive
sales growth in 2019 and beyond.”
FIVE HOUSING TRENDS FOR 2018 1. Inventory expected to begin to increase – In August, the U.S. housing market began to see a higher than normal month-over-month deceleration in inventory that has continued into fall. Based on this pattern, realtor.com® projects U.S. year-
over-year inventory growth to tick up into positive territory by fall 2018, for the first time since 2015. Inventory declines are expected to decelerate slowly throughout the year, reaching a 4 percent year-overyear decline in March before increasing in early fall, after the peak home-buying months. Boston; Detroit; Kansas City, Mo.; Nashville; and Philadelphia are
REALTOR.COM® FORECAST FOR KEY HOUSING INDICATORS Housing Indicator
Realtor.com® 2018 Forecast
Home price appreciation
3.2% increase, enabling a sales pickup
Mortgage rate
Average 4.6% throughout the year and reach 5.0% (30 year fixed) by the end
Existing home sales
2.5% growth, low inventory trend starts to reverse
Housing starts
3% growth in home starts; 7% growth in single family home starts
New home sales
Increase 7%
Home ownership rate
Stabilize at 63.9% after bottom in Q2-2016
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NORTHPOINT FINANCIAL CENTER 8919 N KNOXVILLE AVE., PEORIA, IL 61615
