The Coal Coma

Michelle Manook, Chief Executive Officer FutureCoal

In 2024, I visited seven key coal markets, including China, Colombia, India, South Africa, and the United States. I engaged with ministers, investors, technologists, and industry leaders to discuss the future of coal.

What you may not fully realise is that developing and emerging markets are advancing their economic ambitions, underpinned by coal. These nations are increasingly embracing innovation, modern technologies, and new business strategies to secure a greater share of the value chain. They’re mobilising in support of each other, joint venturing if you will; sharing both opportunities and challenges.

In Australia, policymakers and shareholders seem asleep, still entertaining energy transition ideas that Western Europe and the U.S. are already waking up to and re-evaluating. This is concerning, to say the least. Sidelining valuable, abatable resources is no longer justifiable. The promise of cheap electricity hasn’t materialised; renewable projects have been scaled back, and some renewable businesses have collapsed without delivering the promised dividends.

In Australia, policymakers and the industry at large must rise from this self-inflicted ‘coal coma.’ Hiding from the public debate, remaining inwardly and domestically focused, and lacking inclusivity guarantees that Australia will miss out on the next wave of coal innovation.

This is not an isolated problem; it’s a systemic one—driven by poorly paced, unrealistic goals. Energy security, supply, and reliability have become firmly front of mind.

As I pen this in late 2024, Germany is feeling the strain, with iconic institution Volkswagen planning to close at least three plants, eliminate tens of thousands of jobs, and cut pay by 10%. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, in the U.S., President-elect Trump has signalled a renewed openness to policies prioritising energy security and affordability for citizens. While the future of coal remains uncertain, experts in energy security warn of the risks associated with phasing it out. This concern is reflected in an August poll by the National Mining Association, which found that 72% of Americans believe the next President should maintain existing natural gas and coal plants to ensure affordable, reliable electricity.

Trump’s stance could strengthen the U.S. coal sector globally, especially as investors increasingly recognise coal’s role in building reliable, diversified, and sustainable portfolios.

At the same time, COP29 has kicked off with the familiar call for faster coal phase-outs. The Coal Transition Commission has released its first report, urging actions to accelerate the coal-to-clean energy transition. But we've seen this narrative before, and it’s increasingly out of sync with global realities.

This is not the first time COP has disappointed. The last few COPs have echoed the same calls for coal elimination, despite the fact that over 100 countries still rely on coal for energy security, economic growth, and industrial development.

Instead of clinging to phase-out rhetoric, COP should be championing sustainable solutions and energy diversification. By focusing on advanced coal abatement technologies, we can create a pathway where environmental responsibility and economic growth go hand-in-hand—a vision that truly aligns with the needs of coal-consuming and coal-producing nations.

All we need to do is look across to China, India, and even the U.S. who are exploring new technologies beyond combustion, including hydrogen, ammonia, and critical minerals. These global shifts in technology and partnerships are challenging how we think and shape coal businesses, showing the way forward.

So, it comes as no surprise (at least to me) that traditional finance and investment players are overhauling their all-renewables strategies and portfolios.

Is the financial sector awakening to the fact that environmental responsibility and economic stability are not mutually exclusive? I hope so.

Over the past year, major financial institutions have re-evaluated their climate commitments with a new focus on business stability and a realistic path for environmental goals. J.P. Morgan Asset Management and State Street Global Advisors have scaled back from Climate Action 100+, BlackRock has recalibrated its involvement, and UBS Group abandoned its coal phase-out. Even U.S. regional banks are ramping up lending to fossil fuels, increasing support for oil, gas, and coal industries by 70% annually since 2022 as they capitalise on Europe’s divestment trend.

Today the opportunity to adopt a clear, strategic approach to sustainable coal exists. FutureCoal calls this Sustainable Coal Stewardship (SCS). This roadmap shows the numerous opportunities for the value chain across precombustion, combustion and beyond combustion to responsibly invest in coal’s transformation. One which ensures every nation is on a realistic path to achieving its economic and environmental ambitions. Moreover, creating a Global Alliance of responsible value chain players committed to advancing SCS opportunities.

The global conversation surrounding coal is maturing.

In Australia, policymakers and the industry at large must rise from this self-inflicted ‘coal coma.’ Hiding from the public debate, remaining inwardly and domestically focused, and lacking inclusivity guarantees that Australia will miss out on the next wave of coal innovation. Fragmented strategies that ignore the realities of coal’s vital role globally only place the nation at risk of being left behind. While Australia remains stagnant, countries within the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are advancing, collaborating, and embracing new coal technologies to fuel their economic growth.

With its talent in low-emission technology and SCS expertise - and key coal-consuming nations nearby - Australia risks losing its chance to lead in coal’s transformation unless it adopts a global, strategic outlook now. Policymakers must embrace our SCS roadmap to redefine the future of coal. By reimagining its strategy, Australia has a chance to lead a sustainable coal renaissance, supporting both environmental progress and long-term economic prosperity. The time to act is now. 