The age of automation is here: is the Australian resources sector ready?

Universal Field Robots Founder and Managing Director Jeff Sterling examines the future of automation and robotics in mining.

Predicting the future

If we want to talk about the potential for automation and robotics technology in mining, then we need to attempt to predict the future. Historically, many have tried and have often failed miserably at this task. Ken Olsen, chief executive of one of the world’s most successful computer companies, Digital Equipment, said in 1970: “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

Stanford University’s Head of the Institute for the Future, Roy Amara, created a model of the implementation of technology and the expectations around it. Amara’s Law, as it has become known, states that people tend to overestimate the impact of a new technology in the short run but underestimate it in the long run.

New technology creates excitement about the possibilities, then years pass and nothing much seems to happen. The cynics typically jump in and denounce it before the technology then starts taking hold and becomes disruptive. Commentators put the inflection point where technology catches up with the hype at around 10 to 15 years following inception.

Where are we now?

When it comes to the implementation phase of automation and robotics in mining, some of the announcements that have given some guidance and indicate data points on the curve have been:

• 2008: Komatsu deploys front runner autonomous haulage in Codelco’s Mistral copper mine in Chile

• 2008: Rio Tinto announces the Mine of the Future

• 2012: Rio Tinto announces development of hauling with autonomous trains

• 2018: Rio Tinto commences hauling with autonomous trains, the first heavy freight driverless train

• 2019: BHP announces autonomous hauling is being rolled out to other operations, starting with its coal mines in Queensland

• 2020: Fortescue Metals Group announces that 168 trucks have been converted to autonomous trucks, with a 30% increase productivity levels, travelling a total of more than 47 million kms

Estimates of the automation and robotics technology that is readily available in 2020 includes:

• Pushing with autonomous dozers – 4 or 5 sites in Australia are active in this space, with each having around 4 x D11 size dozers

• Drilling with tele-remote and autonomous drills – 100 drills in service or imminently in service (based on author’s estimate)

• Loading with excavators – Hitachi announced that it is developing autonomous truck loading with its large EX360 excavators

• Hauling with autonomous trucks – 459 currently in service and forecast to increase to 1,500 by 2023 (Global Data Mining Intelligence Centre, February 2020)

• Heavy hauling with autonomous trains – Rio Tinto’s AutoHaul in Western Australia

• Surveying with drones – Emesent advises that 130 units are in service. Exyn is also commercial and many sites are using DJI or similar with the Australian software system ‘Propeller’

The commencement of large-scale automation in 2010 would suggest that the inflection point in the Amara curve would be around 2020 and if we are to believe in the Amara model, then we are entering a period where automation will accelerate.

Indications are that OEM automation leaders Komatsu and Caterpillar are busy growing teams to keep up with demand.

It may well be that we have a few more years for transformation to fully scale, but automation is already happening and cannot be stopped. Choosing no automation is not an option and its disruption in the resources sector will have much more severe impacts if miners risk being left behind.

What can we expect in the short term?

If we accept that we are amid a transformation that is going to disrupt the industry, what can we foresee happening next in mining?

As autonomous systems become more familiar, barriers to implementation are being torn down.

A high capability communications network is necessary for autonomous equipment to operate. Wi-Fi and LTE wireless systems are now being implemented commonly and 5G technology is rolling out. 5G has the potential to provide improved performance and low latency (delay in transporting the messaging) but is also likely to make older technologies increase in value.

Autonomous mining standards and procedures are being developed by Global Mining Guidelines Group (GMG) and a consortium of miners and OEMs. This commitment from a multi-organisational consortium reflects the belief of this group that the roll-out is well and truly underway.

Many minor auxiliary tasks in mining are likely candidates for robotics and automation. As automation takes over the high intensity, high resource tasks such as drilling and trucking, other intermediate and secondary tasks such as road maintenance, charge-up and plant maintenance will become the next bottleneck.

Many of these ancillary tasks are not continuous and are campaigned. These require labour flexibility or people on standby, causing inherent inefficiency. The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the challenges of moving people in and out of mines. Many mines, particularly with low levels of productivity, have shut down, creating social issues in poorer countries that lack social safety nets. We are likely to see an increasing focus on automation of ancillary tasks, particularly as automation safety benefits become more evident and we continue to have safety incidents in ancillary activities.

Many minor work activities in mining are potentially suitable to automation:

• Surveying and sensing of topography and ore data

• Autonomous truck loading units

• ROM feeding

• Underground ground support and services installation

• Transporting of materials to work areas

• Ancillary tasks such as road maintenance, grading, and watering

• Loading explosives and stemming

• Servicing and maintenance, tyres, GET, and fuelling

Some of these activities will likely change from the status quo to suit automation and will move away from processes that are designed around human delivery.

What are the issues and benefits of automation?

Some of the issues around automation that have been commonly discussed include:

• Displacing jobs. It is not conceivable that going back to picks and shovels and pit ponies will create more jobs, just as it is not realistic that freezing technology will in some way freeze in place the jobs as they currently stand. The world is on the march for better ways of doing things and consumers demand ever lower costs, which convert to higher standards of living. Transitioning to new ways of doing things will require understanding and patience.

• Cultural change in the workplace. Ways of operating where morning meetings sent teams off to perform work in their areas of activity following chains of command are being replaced with control algorithms and machine workflows. Mining is still at an early stage of advancing to new ways of managing resources. Control is moving from the hands of supervisors to the desks of people watching screens of numbers in the city.

Key benefits associated with the introduction of automation:

• There are still significant numbers of fatalities and incidents in mining and a transition to automation has the potential to make a step change in outcomes. Rio Tinto has reported no safety incidents have occurred with their operation of autonomous trucks. This is to be expected, as people are not located near these large mobile machines and are therefore not at risk.

• Costs are reported as being reduced in the order of 30%. This includes lower direct costs such as labour and lost time, as well as lower maintenance costs of equipment, such as tyres that perform better with consistent operation.

• A second level of cost benefits will become accessible once a critical mass of automation is reached. Further changes such as larger numbers of smaller machines will allow haul roads to be narrower, and improvements in sensing and control will reduce dilution and improve ore grades, to name just two examples.

Future development trends

Longer term predictions require looking at which technologies are under development, whether they will be applicable to mining and if so, how they will impact the industry.

Teleremote is not new technology but has had largely limited application to date. High bandwidth, low latency 5G has the potential to make teleoperation widely accessible. Teleremote is being used as a stepping stone to more complete automation and is delivering safety, convenience and flexibility. As new communications are rolled out, we can likely expect to see more mining equipment operating without operators onboard, with them safely away in an office at the mine, or a capital city nearby or during the night in a country where the time zone is more socially acceptable.

Data transformation involves the collection of quality data, with people supporting analysis and decision-making. Automation reduces the costs of data collection and frees up people. Digital twins allow this improved data to be passed through analytics engines with efficiency improvement results touted as 10% or more.

This development is largely around mineral processing, where data collection from automation has existed for some time. As automation rolls out, blast, load and haul data will be available to analytics teams, leading to an improvement in the quality of decision-making in mining, trending from homogeneous bulk extraction to more select heterogeneous treatment of localised features of the geology of orebodies. This will support lower costs but also lower energy inputs, making mining more sustainable.

Humanoid robots jumping into machines and driving is a goal of some robotics developers. Boston Dynamics is well known for its videos of robots with humanoid movements such as running and jumping. The challenges for these machines are carrying the power supply to sustain them and sensors not yet miniaturised to human equivalent sizes. Boston Dynamics appears to be the most advanced in this space but is struggling to produce a commercially viable product. Watch this space.

Sensing hardware is developing at speed, driven by investment in self-driving car development. Machines self-driving in mining is much simpler than self-driving cars on public roads because the driving routes are known, relatively static and miners can implement rules to limit the interaction and exposure of people. Mining trucks generally do not have the sensors to manoeuvre around an obstacle on the road whereas in street-based self-driving cars, this is a basic functionality. The advances being made in sensors for self-driving cars will transfer to mining and then another level of features will become available. What these features will deliver is yet to be seen, but far superior collision avoidance is highly likely.

Smarter machines

Automation technology in mining is clever in the sense that large, powerful machines are operating without drivers, however, much of the control logic is still quite simple. There is a small battle going on in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) world around what AI is and what it will become. The media often discusses AI as purely Machine Learning (ML) or neural networks, which we are familiar with in applications such as facial recognition. There are many more approaches to creating machines that can make pseudo decisions - the battle lines are drawn as to whether intelligence will predominantly come out of ML or another approach.

Gary Marcus is a vocal advocate of hybrid AI that will combine ML with other approaches. As we are seeing robots that are physically able to interact and do useful work, the next development will be packing on more intelligence so they can make more humanoid decisions. This high strength AI is a must for challenges such as loading an excavator bucket where the rock load can be variable, and simple logic and replanning problems that come about when delays occur and sequences need to change.

There are many trending technologies that can be identified as candidates for adoption in mining and equally there will be others that are yet to be imagined. What we can predict is that the tremendous digital transformation that is thrust upon us in our personal lives will force its way into mining. Hey Siri? Watch the mine for me while I make a coffee. •