Industrial production: sluggish momentum despite full order books

the autumn than in spring, although, year on year, orders were up by 15.1 percent with parallel growth in demand from at home and abroad.

The continuing shortages of some intermediates are still limiting production in many factories. Order books are consequently continuing to swell. According to figures from the ifo Institute, the reach of orders in hand in manufacturing once again hit a new record high of 4.2 production months at the beginning of the fourth quarter 2021. The order books of capital goods producers are the fullest. The reach of orders in hand for this sector recorded an all-time high of 5.7 production months (previously 4.8 months) which is also two production months above the long-term average of the last ten years. The reach of orders in hand also climbed to a new all-time high for the producers of intermediates. Companies in this sector have a backlog of orders worth 3.7 production months. Consumer goods producers have managed to reduce their backlog of orders slightly, with the reach of orders in hand dropping to 2.2 months, only slightly higher than the long-term average.

According to figures from the German Federal Statistical Office, the orders in hand in manufacturing in September 2021 were up by 2.4 percent on the previous month following price, seasonal and calendar adjustment, reaching their highest level since this data series began in January 2015. Domestic orders in hand were 1.3 percent higher than in August, with orders in hand from abroad increasing by 3.1 percent in the same period. Compared to February 2020, before restrictions were put in place in Germany to combat the Covid pandemic, orders in hand in September 2021 were just over 25 percent higher following seasonal and calendar adjustment. Orders in hand for the producers of intermediates rose by 1.8 percent in September compared to August. Among capital goods producers, orders in hand increased 2.7 percent, primarily on account of the high demand in vehicle manufacturing (up 5.9 percent) and machinery manufacturing (up 3.9 percent). Consumer goods producers, in contrast, had 0.5 percent less orders in hand than in the previous month.

Industrial production: sluggish momentum despite full order books

Industrial production (manufacturing excluding energy and construction) increased by 3.2 percent compared to the previous month and following seasonal and calendar adjustment. Furthermore, figures for September were upwardly revised bringing the drop in production for that month from minus 1.5 percent up to minus 1.3 percent. The construction industry also recorded growth in October compared to the previous month (up 1.2 percent). Energy production also rose slightly (up 0.9 percent). In manufacturing overall, production increased by 2.8 percent in October 2021 compared to September. Year on year production was down by a slim 0.6 percent.

Despite the upward revision of the September figures, manufacturing output dropped 2.4 percent in the third quarter 2021 compared to the previous quarter and following seasonal and calendar adjustment. Following a drop of 1.1 percent in the second quarter and stagnation at the start of the year, industry has not seen any quarter-on-quarter growth so far. Production was 2.7 percent higher than in the third quarter last year, but production levels then were very low. Energy production decreased by 2.2 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter and following seasonal and calendar adjustment. Year on year, production was up 1.1 percent. Construction activity contracted 1.1 percent compared to the previous quarter but increased by 1.5 percent compared to the third quarter 2020.

Among the main industrial groups, production trends in the third quarter 2021 diverged. Producers of intermediates decreased their output by three percent compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the third quarter 2020, production was nonetheless up substantially (up 7.9 percent). The production of capital goods was four percent down on the previous quarter and 2.7 percent lower year on year. These weak figures were primarily due to low output levels in vehicle manufacturing and, more recently, machinery manufacturing. The only sector showing a clear upward trend was consumer goods producers. Production here increased by 3.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. The increase was even larger year on year, with production up 5.2 percent.

A look at the trends in the individual industries still shows a steady upward development in the third quarter 2021 compared to the same period last year across almost all industries. Machinery manufacturing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, metal producers and metalworking companies recorded growth rates of around eight percent, with electrics and electronics even increasing production by just over 13 percent. Vehicle manufacturing, in contrast, registered its second strongest drop in output since the financial crisis, plummeting 22.9 percent. Apart from individual consumer-related industries such as pharmaceuticals and food and clothing, most industries failed to maintain production levels reached in the second quarter 2021. Incoming orders and production are drifting further apart with no end of this trend in sight.

Production development in the manufacturing industry

year on year change in percent 2019 2020 2021 year Q1 Q2 Q3 original value calendar adjusted

compared to previous period in percent 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct seasonally and calendar adjusted

Production - 3.3 - 7.3 - 1.7 15.9 2.3 - 0.8 - 0.3 - 2.4 - 3.5 - 0.5 2.8

Industry - 4.2 - 9.6 - 1.2 19.7 2.7 0.0 - 1.1 - 2.4 - 4.2 - 1.3 3.2

Intermediate goods - 3.6 - 6.1 2.3 22.4 7.9 2.1 1.0 - 3.0 - 2.5 - 1.2 - 0.4

Capital goods - 4.5 -14.6 - 3.3 22.8 - 2.7 - 1.9 - 4.0 - 4.0 - 6.7 - 1.9 8.2

Consumer goods - 4.7 - 3.7 - 3.3 7.6 5.2 0.2 1.3 3.2 - 2.4 0.2 - 0.1

Energy - 7.2 - 6.1 - 2.3 11.9 1.1 - 1.9 2.5 - 2.2 4.1 3.1 0.9

Construction industry 3.3 4.2 - 4.7 2.0 1.1 - 4.2 2.6 - 2.2 - 2.6 2.2 1.2

Construction industry proper 5.9 5.4 - 3.0 2.5 1.5 - 0.3 2.7 - 1.1 - 3.3 3.3 0.9

Finishing industry 1.0 3.1 - 6.2 1.5 0.6 - 7.7 2.6 - 3.2 - 1.9 1.2 1.6

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations