United States: ambiguous signals towards year end

year of this upward trend. The lowest growth in this group of countries was recorded by industry in Central and Eastern Europe, but it was still at plus 2.2 percent as of August.

China’s industry has been the biggest driver of growth in recent years, but this year, the industries of Africa and the Middle East as well as the other Asian emerging countries seem set to take over this role. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for industry in the emerging countries has trended downwards for three months after reaching its highest level of the year in June. In September and October, the index even fell below the threshold value of 50 to contractionary territory at 49.4 and 49.8 index points respectively. Despite the slowdown on the horizon for the fourth quarter, we still expect industrial production in emerging countries to grow by about four percent in 2022 overall.

Emerging economies: Industrial production*, Purchasing Managers Index

55 20

50 10

0

45

40 Africa/Middle East Latin America Central and Eastern Europe Asia (excluding China) China Purchasing Managers Index seasonally adjusted (left axis)

2018 2019 2020 2021

2022 *Production index: two-month average, after calendar and seasonal adjustments, in percent, year on year Sources: Macrobond, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) -10

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United States: ambiguous signals towards year end

The US industry (industrial production excluding construction) stepped up its pace of growth slightly at the turn of the year 2021/2022. In the first quarter, the production index increased by 4.8 percent compared to the previous year. Growth was fuelled primarily by machinery manufacturing, while growth in the chemical industry can be attributed to the low base level caused by bad weather. In both the second and third quarter 2022, the pace of growth continued at over four percent. For the first nine months of the current year, industrial production thus rose by 4.6 percent compared to the same period the previous year. The manufacturing sector expanded by 4.1 percent over the same period.

Among the individual industries in the manufacturing sector, machinery manufacturing recorded the strongest growth in the first nine months of the year, expanding by 6.8 percent, together with vehicle production, which grew by 6.9 percent. Growth in the car production segment increased by as much as 8.3 percent. The production of electronic devices and equipment increased by 4.8 percent, and the production of data processing equipment by 3.4 percent. The chemical industry expanded its