Industrial production still below pre-pandemic levels two years on

According to figures from the German Federal Statistical Office, which have published this data series since 2015, the orders in hand in manufacturing in December 2021 were up in November 2021 by 1.5 percent, following price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Incoming orders for manufacturing have increased continually since June 2020 and, at the end of 2021, were at their highest level since the data series restarted. The backlog of orders was 29.3 percent higher following seasonal and calendar adjustment than in February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed to stem the spread of the pandemic. The backlog of orders from at home increased by three percent in December, making it 36.6 percent higher than in February 2020. The backlog of foreign orders increased by 0.8 percent, bringing it to 25.9 percent above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production still below pre-pandemic levels two years on

In January 2022, industrial production rose 1.3 percent over the previous month following seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to preliminary figures. Production growth for December 2021 was upwardly revised to 2.1 percent (formerly: up 1.2 percent). Construction also increased production robustly thanks to the mild weather this January, rising 12.5 percent year on year. Mainstream construction and the finishing trades accelerated production at a similar rate. The energy industry, in contrast, reduced its output compared to the previous month by a marginal 0.1 percent. Overall, total production output was 2.7 percent higher than in December 2021 and 1.8 percent higher than in the same month last year.

In the fourth quarter 2021, industrial output increased by 2.2 percent over the previous quarter following seasonal and calendar adjustment. This marks the end of the downward trend which set in at the beginning of last year. Compared to the previous year, however, production was down 1.6 percent. Energy production increased by 2.5 percent over the previous quarter following seasonal and calendar adjustment. Year on year, energy production was up by two percent. In construction, production decreased both compared to the previous quarter (down one percent) and compared to the same period last year (down 4.6 percent). The main factor pushing production down in construction was the weak performance of the finishing trades. Mainstream construction expanded its activity both compared to the previous quarter (up 0.9 percent) and compared to the previous year (up 1.7 percent). Among the main industrial groups, the producers of intermediates produced 0.1 percent less than in the third quarter 2021 but drew level year on year. Capital goods producers managed to increase production by five percent compared to the previous quarter but came in at minus 5.1 percent year on year. Consumer goods producers kept production almost steady at third quarter levels (down 0.1 percent) and recorded an increase of three percent year on year.

Now in the second year following the outbreak of the pandemic, industry has still not fully recovered. Compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, manufacturing output is still down by more than six percent, and as much as 30 percent in vehicle production. Some industries have nonetheless completely recovered from the Covid shock, including the electrical and electronics industry, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

Production development in the manufacturing industry

year on year change in percent 2020 2021 2021 year Q2 Q3 Q4 original value calendar adjusted

compared to previous period in percent 2021 2022 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan seasonally and calendar adjusted

Production - 7.3 3.2 15.9 2.2 - 2.0 - 0.5 - 2.3 1.5 0.3 1.1 2.7

Industry - 9.6 4.3 19.7 2.5 - 1.6 - 1.2 - 2.3 2.2 0.5 2.1 1.3

Intermediat goods - 6.1 7.7 22.4 7.9 0.2 0.8 - 2.3 - 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3

Capital goods - 14.6 1.8 22.8 - 2.7 - 5.1 - 4.0 - 4.0 5.0 - 0.1 4.4 1.2

Consumer goods - 3.7 2.7 7.6 3.6 3.0 1.1 1.6 - 0.1 1.4 - 0.7 4.0

Energy - 6.1 2.7 11.9 2.2 2.0 2.5 - 1.1 2.5 - 0.8 0.5 - 0.1

Construction industry 4.2 - 1.2 2.0 0.8 - 4.6 2.6 - 2.5 - 1.0 - 0.3 - 4.0 10.1

Construction industry proper 5.4 0.9 2.5 1.1 1.7 2.7 - 1.6 0.9 0.2 - 3.0 6.3

Finishing industry 3.1 - 3.3 1.5 0.4 - 9.2 2.6 - 3.4 - 2.9 - 0.7 - 5.0 14.2

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations

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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change over previous year, two-month-comparison, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent Source: Federal Statistical Office 40

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