Floreat Bitesize: Issue 1 by Bedford-School

FLOREAT

B I T E S I Z E 001

03. EDITORIAL AN INTRODUCTION FROM THE TEAM TO THE FIRST EDITION OF FLOREAT BITESIZE

06. THE RETURN OF OIL NORMALITY? GABRIEL DAVIS

07. THE UNSPOKEN GENOCIDE HARRY HINE

10. PUTTING THE ECO INTO ECONOMICS JAMES CUTLER

12. TIGRAY: AN IMPENDING HUMAN RIGHTS DISASTER OSCAR CALVERT

14. AUF WIEDERSEHEN, 'MUTTI' SAMI HAROON

16. THE GAP INSTINCT AND THE DANGER OF 'CLUMPING' OLUWAJOBA THOMAS

'Floreat' magazine created by Bedford School boys Photographs by Bedford School or sourced from Unsplash.com Published by Bedford School. March 2021.

FLOREAT

E D I TORIAL With the world changing so quickly, it is impossible

media at the moment, rather than from months prior.

to cover everything in Floreat. We want to provide a

There will be 6-7 short(er) articles in each issue, giving

student’s perspective on as much as we can, however.

a rundown on some of the most important events

To do so, we have created this: Floreat Bitesize. Bitesize

happening currently. Hopefully there is something

is a way for us to continue publishing a student’s pers-

for all over the following pages. Welcome to Floreat

pective on events, but events that are relevant in the

Bitesize, we hope you enjoy.

HARRY HINE, ARUN NANDA AND GABRIEL DAVIS

FLOREAT SCHOLA BEDFORDIENSIS

FLOREAT

PHOTO BY CHRIS LEBOUTILLI ON UNSPLASH

THE RETURN OF OIL NORMALITY? BY GABRIEL DAVIS

Following a disagreement between Russia and Saudi

by rebels fighting the Saudi backed Yemen government.

Arabia, the second and third largest oil producers res-

Whilst there was no damage to Ras Tanura there was

pectively, April 2020 saw the price of crude oil fall below

a definite shock and fear that production would suffer,

$0 for the first time ever. See Floreat 001. A year on and

prompting the price to rise. This was not the first attack

we are seeing the opposite happen. Oil futures climbed

on a Saudi oil processing facility however – in 2019 Saudi’s

upwards of $70 a barrel on March 8th – the first time since

state-owned Aramco facility was severely damaged in

May 2019, dropping only a little to $68 a barrel on March

drone strikes, disrupting the production of 5.7 million

10th. As nations open up following COVID, the demand

barrels per day; this saw a spike in the commodity’s price

for oil is increasing but the need for oil producing nations

to upwards of $70 per barrel, but it quickly stabilised –

to balance their budgets is also at the forefront of the

nonetheless showing how uncertainty in production has

producer’s minds. The Organisation of the Petroleum

severe effects on price.

Exporting Countries (OPEC) has therefore come to the

The surge has largely erased any losses sustained in

agreement to extend production curbs until April kee-

2020 and Wall Street are under the impression that the

ping the price high in the meantime.

price of oil only looks to be going up: JPMorgan Chase and

Whilst the Saudis are continuing to voluntarily cut

Goldman Sachs have told clients they believe the price

their production by one million barrels a day, the Russians

could soon be much higher, given vaccination programs

are beginning to increase their output, albeit marginally,

are beginning to take off and lockdowns are beginning

by 130,000 barrels a day. This went against the market

to be eased heading into summer. Lockdowns meant

expectation of the Saudis to go back on their production

the demand for aeroplane fuel – one of the largest oil

curb and for the rest of OPEC+ to increase their produc-

consuming sectors – plummeted, but with hopes of a

tion by 500,000 barrels per day. However, this extension

somewhat normal summer holiday season the market

of production cuts has not been the only contributor to

is pre-empting a high demand in the coming months.

the recent spike in oil prices. Biden’s recent $1.9trn sti-

Given it has been less than a year since the oil crisis,

mulus bill looking to open up the US economy and boost

the bullish nature of the markets is a good sign that the

economic growth has also played a large role in the price.

world is heading back to some form of normality, wha-

The USA are the largest consumer of oil and with their

tever that may come to be. The cooperation between

economy beginning to reopen their demand for oil is

Saudi Arabia and Russia is also a good sign as it was their

only naturally going to increase. West Texas Intermediate

falling out over OPEC+ that led to the WTI briefly settling

(WTI) oil futures, see Floreat 01, the American benchmark

at -$37.63 per barrel. But given the need for oil produ-

for oil price, reflects this, sitting, at the time of writing

cing countries needing to balance their budget (when

at $65.33 for April, reflecting the bullish nature of the

revenue is equal to expenditure) the cooperation to keep

American markets. Uncertainty has played a role too.

production curbed works for both nations. The Saudis

On March 7th, Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura was attacked

need oil to be sitting at $66 per barrel to balance their

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IMAGE BY WALDEMAR BRANDT ON UNSPLASH budget according to the International Monetary Fund

decade and is looking to become “the world leader in

(IMF), this is similar to the Russians who need $64 per

clean wind energy.” This surge, if sustained could well

barrel to keep their budget balanced according to The

push other countries to follow in the UK’s footsteps,

Economist; this, however, is significantly higher than last

investing in renewable energy sooner rather than later.

year’s estimates of needing only $50 per barrel to main-

OPEC+ therefore needs to be careful about not exten-

tain a balanced budget, showing that COVID has hit the

ding the production curbs so far to affect the hotly awai-

Russian economy harder than the Saudi Arabian eco-

ted returning demand.

nomy, whose pricing estimate is actually down from $80-

What is clear though, is that the Saudis and Russians

85 per barrel to maintain a balanced budget in 2019-20.

are very aware that they need to be economically strong

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets said the inflated

coming out of the pandemic. Russia has fared conside-

prices though “could also speed up the transition towards

rably worse than Saudi Arabia with over 2.6 million dea-

renewables if the price rises much above $70 a barrel for

ths at the time of writing, whilst Saudi Arabia has had

an extended period.” Pushing forward an agenda that is

just over 6,500, but with economic pressures mounting

already being pushed by many countries; Boris Johnson

in the reopening of economies the two oil superpowers

recently pledged £160m to upgrade ports and factories

need to be careful not to overplay their hand, they don’t

building turbines so the UK could “build back greener”

want this surge to be the downfall of the world’s largest

following the pandemic. The UK government has said

commodity market which, if they’re not careful, could

that UK offshore wind farms will generate enough elec-

be the ultimate outcome.

tricity to power every home within the UK within the References: Websites: www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/03/08/oil-markets-prepare-for-lofty-prices-and-restrained-supply www.ft.com/content/3032d80d-89b0-4020-922e-f4fa15435b5d uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brent-crude-saudi-arabia-oil-prices-hit-14-month-high-opec-maintains-april-supply-cuts-091537613.html www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54421489

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TH E U NSP OK EN G E NOC I DE B Y

A R

On 23 February 2021, the Canadian government

political response has been timid, limited to occasional

labelled China’s violation of human rights towards

words of disapproval. For example, the UK has urged

Uyghur Muslims as ‘genocide’. The word ‘genocide’

China to give United Nations observers ‘immediate and

was originally used by Raphäel Lemkin, a polish lawyer,

unfettered access’ to detention camps. In addition, 38

partly in response to the outrage of the Holocaust. The

other countries have denounced China’s actions. Given

Uyghur Muslims are a Turkic ethnic group originating

China’s rise to global prominence this century, it seems

from Central and East Asia, who are currently being

that condemnation of this world power will antagonise

held in concentration camps in Xinjiang province, China.

rather than deter. The death knell of the British and

Despite this disturbing accusation from the Canadians,

French empires during the 1950s/60s, with a rush to inde-

media attention of this issue been scarce and global

pendence for many colonies, and the Suez Crisis being

action hesitant. This article aims to expose the brutality

a watershed moment for Britain in realising once and

of China’s actions against the Uyghur Muslims, examine

for all that it was no longer first division but subordinate

the global response thus far, and question the accuracy

to US power, resulted in the concept of Responsibility

of criticism towards China.

to Protect (R2P) dominating international politics. The

The camps were first sited in 2017, but they have only

idea holds that sovereign states have a responsibility

recently come to media attention. Despite the Chinese

to protect their people, and when they fail to do so, the

Communist Party (CCP) describing the enclosures as

international community has a responsibility to step in.

‘vocational training camps’, leaked documents tell a diffe-

It is questionable whether the international community

rent story, including statements of: ‘never allow escapes’;

has done, and is doing, its upmost to keep rogue sta-

‘encourage students to truly transform’; and ‘increase

tes in check. Often inaction is the result of moral forti-

discipline and punishment of behavioural violations.’

tude being trumped by political convenience. Genocide

These statements reflect the authoritarian regimes of

in Rwanda, where 800,000 were killed in just 100 days,

the camps. Other reports have also shown deliberate

would suggest that international disapproval sometimes

maltreatment, including sterilisation, abortion, rape, and

does little to prevent catastrophic slaughter. However,

enslavement. Worryingly, since 2017, the number and

Realpolitik (systems of politics based on practical rather

size of camps have increased. The Australian Strategic

than moral considerations) would indicate that interfe-

Policy Institute (ASPI) has found 380 suspected deten-

rence by (military) force has become increasingly diffi-

tion camps and suggested that 61 had grown in size

cult; often disapproving nations must resort either to

between July 2019 and July 2020, with 14 still growing.

economic sanctions, which can take time to bite effect,

Even though levels of cruelty are growing, the global

and/or diplomatic censure.

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Nonetheless, assigning sovereign atrocities to ‘cul-

to stop supporting organisations that are reliant on the

tural norms’, as Joe Biden did earlier this year, does no

work of the Uyghur Muslims. Recent accounts have sug-

justice to R2P. Nowadays, is it acceptable to hide behind

gested the world’s largest fashion brands are complicit

cultural and religious differences, and to draw convenient

in the forced labour of the Uyghur Muslims. Companies

demarcation lines between East and West? Although dif-

such as Tommy Hilfiger, Gap, and Calvin Klein have been

ferent in nature, another relevant example is the preva-

accused of sourcing resources, particularly cotton, from

lence of wet markets in Asia, which have caused the spread of infectious diseases in the past, including severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza. On the back of this current global pandemic, which might have stemmed from a wet market, should these sources of infection be tolerated in our interconnected world? Noting the widespread absence of international action at the government

ASSIGNING SOVEREIGN

the Xinjiang region. Removing support

ATROCITIES TO

their ilk, might stop them sourcing from

'CULTURAL NORMS'

put pressure on the Chinese government.

DOES NO JUSTICE

at this point; the next step should be defi-

TO R2P

level, is there anything meaningful that

for the aforementioned companies and Xinjiang, which in turn might indirectly These potential solutions are conjecture nitive action if the Uyghur Muslims are to be afforded some protection. For all the evident discrimination against the Uyghur Muslims, are the

we can do? Two suggestions have gai-

Chinese really carrying out genocide?

ned traction recently. Firstly, boycott next year’s Winter

Answering this question requires analysis of the defi-

Olympics, which are to be held in Beijing. Currently, 180

nition of the word ‘genocide.’ According to an UN con-

organisations have called for governments to abandon

vention, one does not have to kill, for actions to be con-

the games, unless China stops its imprisonment of the

sidered genocidal. For example, measures ‘intended

Uyghur Muslims. The threat of a failed games, and the

to prevent births’ or to cause ‘serious bodily or mental

concomitant embarrassment, especially after the suc-

harm’ would meet the definition, suggesting, therefore,

cess of Beijing 2008, might have a greater, and longer-

that the sterilisation of women and the intent to ‘trans-

-lasting impact on China. The second consideration is

form’ students are indeed genocidal acts. Conversely, the

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USA, the so-called vanguard of democracy, believes that

demonstrated that the international community (US

genocide solely includes mass slaughter. Perhaps this

led) is still prepared to intervene when a line is cros-

definition suits the USA in order to avoid accusations of

sed, although there has often been the backdrop of

genocide against African Americans. Using this defini-

access to oil, which perhaps makes this intervention

tion, it would be difficult to accuse China of genocide

more politically jaundiced and morally weaker. Such

since there is no definitive evidence of killing. Genocide

interference has also proven politically and economically

is a strong term, so, both caution and a clear definition

costly. Furthermore, China, given its military and econo-

are required before citing criticism against the super-

mic might, is a different and far more challenging pros-

power of China, who arguably can inflict more damage

pect. Trapped between the moral conviction of R2P and

in economic retaliation than it has received. Regardless

the necessities of Realpolitik, the international commu-

of the chosen definition of genocide, China’s actions are

nity faces the dilemma of what to do. It seems obvious

far from acceptable, so some level of condemnation

that we should not hide behind the excuse of cultural

beyond diplomatic disapproval would seem justifiable.

and religious differences to justify inaction against see-

If the evidence is to be believed, China’s violation of

mingly blatant discrimination.

human rights in its treatment of the Uyghur Muslims,

Nevertheless, politics is politics, so perhaps we

which seems to be on the increase, is alarming. Equally

should not expect too much from leading governments

concerning, is the absence of international condem-

around the world, especially those who already rely hea-

nation and pressure against this increasingly powerful

vily on trade with China, or those who aspire to do so. If

nation, something that seems far removed from the

diplomatic disapproval falls on deaf ears and if econo-

notion of R2P. The world has been in similar situations

mic sanctions risk too painful a retaliation, then maybe

before, and it has chosen to stand by and watch from

a collective boycotting both of the Winter Olympics and

the side lines instead of acting. The Holocaust is perhaps

leading clothes brands are not bad options after all. The

history’s starkest reminder of what happens when a

question is: do we have the collective international will

belligerent is given free reign. Military action against

to take these steps?

rogue states in the Middle East in recent decades has

References: 1Available: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56163220. Last accessed 6 March 2021 2Available: www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml. Last accessed 6 March 2021 3Available: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uyghurs. Last accessed 6 March 2021 4Available: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50511063. Last accessed 6 March 2021 5Available: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55973215. Last accessed 6 March 2021 6Available: www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/world/asia/china-muslims-xinjiang-detention.html. Last accessed 6 March 2021 7Available: www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/25/uk-calls-for-un-access-chinese-detention-camps-xinjiang. Last accessed 6 March 2021 8Available: www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/7/germany-leads-charge-against-china-on-rights-abuses. Last accessed 6 March 2021 9C. Reus-Smit, International Relations: A Very Short Introduction, Edition 1, Oxford, Oxford University Press, n.d., p 42 10Available: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-26875506. Last accessed 6 March 2021 11Available: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16940861/. Last accessed 6 March 2021 12Available: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55938034. Last accessed 6 March 2021 13Available: www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jul/23/virtually-entire-fashion-industry-complicit-in-uighur-forced-labour-say-rights-groups-china. Last accessed 6 March 2021 14The Economist, 13-19 February 2021, p 11. 15The Economist, 13-19 February 2021, p 11.

IMAGES BY KUZZAT ALTAY ON UNSPLASH

FLOREAT

P UT TI NG T HE EC O IN TO E C ON OM I CS How economies can combat climate change

Climate change represents the toughest chal-

itself to a certain extent. Ecologists measure this using

lenge that mankind, collectively, has ever faced. This

net primary productivity (NPP) which is, simplified, the

fact is known to many. Despite this, a newly published

rate at which the biosphere can turn organic compounds

landmark report, commissioned by the Treasury, says

(for example: CO2) into vegetation, that acts as the pri-

that our current economic way of thinking does not

mary producer in food chains, thus sustaining all other

account for the contribution that nature provides to

biodiversity within that food chain. Dasgupta argues

the production process. Whilst we, as economists, are

that nature, because of its regenerative effect, produces

taught about factor inputs such as labour and capital,

a stock of ‘natural’ capital, which humans derive ‘regu-

we do not consider the air that we breathe, the water

lating and maintenance services’ which include all envi-

that we drink and the complex ecosystems that maintain

ronmental cycles that maintain the Earth’s spheres, for

the natural environment for us. The review, on the eco-

example, the global atmospheric circulation which reg-

nomics of biodiversity, makes the case that economists

ulates global climate. If we, as economists, use this pro-

currently do not appreciate the impact of environmental

ductive function accurately, we can build a better picture

damage on society’s welfare and growth. Furthermore,

of the benefits that nature gives to global productivity.

it suggests that our way of measuring economic growth

Correspondingly, any function which does not include

is fundamentally flawed and that economic agents at

the biosphere exaggerates human contributions to pro-

all levels must become more aware and responsible for the cost that they inflict on nature. Its findings indicate that, despite conventional economic thought, economy and ecology are intertwined more than we think.

ductivity, by assuming misattributing the benefits that nature provides for the production process. According to the report, changing the way we measure economic

Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, Emeritus Professor at the University of Cambridge, has led this landmark review. It aims to build on the work of the Stern review, commissioned by the Treasury in 2006, by emphasising the importance of nature and biodiversity within our economic systems. One of the more ground-breaking ideas put forward by the review, is a new illustrative productive function, that takes into account the contribution which nature plays in productive processes. To understand this, we must consider the biosphere’s regenerative quality, the fact that the biosphere can reproduce and repair

FLOREAT

market prices more sensitive to the overuse of natural capital. Furthermore, he sites the efficiency at which humans can transfer natural capital into GDP as important, as increases in efficiency will reduce the burden placed on nature, whilst maintaining stable economic growth. This efficiency, currently growing at 3.5% every year, would need to grow at around 10% every year, in order to stop natural capital declining. More controversially, the report says that economists should begin to understand that there may be limits to growth, at which humans can sustainably convert natural capital into GDP. Coming from one of the leading economists of our time, this is certainly a striking admission, but perhaps it is a much-needed reality check for the subject, which has been focused on numerical growth targets for so long. Professor Dasgupta’s report is certainly a significant milestone in the way in which we understand our impact success is therefore paramount to reducing the destructive impacts of human activities on biodiversity. Following on from this new productive function outlined in the report, one of Professor Dasgupta’s most important beliefs is that nature is too cheap. He outlines this point deeply in his report, expressing his concern that overall Aggregate Demand (AD) for nature is too high for the level that it can sustainably supply, because too many people assume that it is a free good of indefinite supply. As people produce output, through economic activity, they extract resources from nature, for use in productive processes. Furthermore, they often

on nature and biodiversity. However, the publication of the report itself will not repair the already damaged relationship between humanity and the natural world. New ideas for fiscal policy, such as a ‘Green New Deal’ are being considered by governments around the world and there is a clear opportunity for all countries to reset their relationship with natural capital and to incorporate it better into their economic systems in the post-Covid-19 recovery. However, Dasgupta also puts emphasis on individuals and households, who must become more aware of their cost on nature. He argues that we must all make a concerted effort to reduce damage to biodiversity, in order to incentivise firms and governments to

‘dump’ further waste back onto nature itself, further

follow suit. The Dasgupta review does provide a positive,

damaging biodiversity and further reducing the stock of

in the sense that it is clear that the environment has not

natural capital available to humanity. As a result of this

suffered irreparable damage yet. But it makes it abun-

overextraction of resources from nature, because of lit-

dantly clear that governments, firms and households

tle or no signals to signal to consumers and firms their

and perhaps most importantly, the subject of econom-

impact on nature, the global stock of natural capital is

ics, must act now in order to prevent a collapse in the

being depleted significantly faster than it can regenerate.

Earth’s biodiversity.

Forecasts, outlined in the report, say that the demands humans currently place on nature are equivalent to the sustainable output of 1.6 Earths. Of course, there is only one, meaning that humans are considerably overdemanding resources from nature. Global biodiversity is a complex, interdependent system and we will reach a point in the not-too-distant future where the whole system will begin to collapse. To rectify this oversupply issue, we need adequate price incentives to signal to economic agents the cost of their actions upon nature. Dasgupta calls for overarching changes to financial institutions, in order to make

FLOREAT

T I G R AY : A N IMPENDING H U M A N RIG HTS DISAS TER BY OS CAR C AL VER T

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PHOTO BY PAOLO CANDELO ON UNSPLASH

In 2019, the Nobel Committee commended

The citizens of Tigray have been isolated from the wider

Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, for ‘his efforts

world in an effort to starve out the rebels. Meanwhile,

to achieve peace and international cooperation’. This

there are reports of government forces or their allies

commitment is being challenged by the recent explo-

killing livestock and burning crops. If true, both the per-

sion of violence in the Tigray State.

petrators and those who gave the orders are guilty of

Ethiopia’s governing coalition appointed Abiy as

war crimes.

prime minister in April 2018 to help calm months of anti-

This February, the region was estimated to be at a

-government protests. He quickly won praise – and the

crisis (phase 3)/emergency (phase 4) level of acute food

Nobel Prize – for opening up the political space and cur-

insecurity by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

bing repressive measures. The Tigray People’s Liberation

under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.

Front (TPLF) dominated the country’s military and gover-

This is where at least 20 percent of households face

nment before Abiy took office and his reforms made

extreme food consumption gaps, resulting in very high

them feel increasingly marginalised, causing them to

levels of acute malnutrition and excess mortality. The

withdraw from the governing coalition. Conflict between

practical implications of this food insecurity have been

Ethiopia's central powers and Tigray’s authorities esca-

widely reported: Abera Tola, head of Ethiopian Red Cross

lated in September 2020, when Abiy refused to recog-

Society, stated, ‘Displaced civilians who have managed

nise the result of a regional election in Tigray (in which

to reach camps in Tigrayan towns are 'emaciated'. You

the TPLF won 100% of the contested seats). Conversely,

see their skin is really on their bones. You don't see any

Tigray’s authorities objected to the delay on elections

food in their body’. Some were so hungry that they were

imposed by Abiy, blamed on the pandemic, seeing it as

‘forced to eat grass and roots’. In order for Abiy to maintain his commitment to

a scheme to extend his time in office. The conflict turned violent on the 4th November 2020, with TPLF attacks on an Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) outpost. Since then, the region has been plagued with futile skirmishes between TPLF and ENDF forces. Both sides have reported high casualties, but the main victims from these offensives have been civilians. On the night from 9 to 10 November, 600 civilians were killed in a massacre in the town of Mai Kadra with machetes by local militias and police loyal to the TPLF, according to preliminary investigations by

peace, he has to allow aid agencies into Tigray. If he refuses, international agencies should press him into doing this by adding financial pressure. Already, Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, has suspended €88m of budget support until aid agencies are given access to Tigray. However, negotiations with the Ethiopian government are not enough to prevent the looming crisis. Getting aid to the hungry needs negotiations for a ceasefire with the TPLF - it simply can't be done with the cooperation of one side only.

Amnesty International and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. 20 days later, indiscriminate shooting by the Eritrean Defence Forces throughout Aksum killed 800. The attack followed a fight between the TPLF and the EDF the day before. The regional stability built by Abiy is at risk and risks returning to the atmosphere that started the 1998-2000 Eritrean–Ethiopian War, which killed over 100,000 people. A disturbing issue emerging in this conflict is the weaponization of hunger. Aid agencies guess that between 2m and 4.5m people need urgent assistance. They cannot be more precise because the phone networks are down and the government has barred reporters from entering Tigray. Charities and UN agencies have been attempting to get food into the region for months, but Ethiopia’s ‘Ministry for Peace’ has prevented all their efforts. When trucks do get into Tigray, they are stopped by the regional government or soldiers.

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A U F W I E D E R S E H E N , ‘ M U T T I ’ GOODBYE, MAMA BY S A M I H A R O O N YouTube is founded. Camilla and the Prince of Wales get married. The IRA announces its end. Hurricane Katrina kills over a thousand people. 16 years, 5 British Prime Ministers and 4 US Presidents later, Angela Merkel will not be standing for what would be her 5th term as German Chancellor. A 16 year period which, naturally, has seen turmoil and change, crisis and disaster, recession and pandemic... Her tenancy has overseen the European refugee crisis, the rise in European populism and the war on terror. Add to that the global financial crisis of 2008, Brexit, Trump and the Coronavirus and one is somewhat closer to an understanding of the sobriety of the hand delivered to Frau Merkel. Known for her staunch centrism as leader of the Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, the Ph.D in Quantum Chemistry turned figurehead of the EU will go down in history. Be that as a stalwart proponent of global cooperation; a steadfast apologist for neo-liberal economics; or as the figurehead of global feminism - if Merkel were to sneeze, Europe would catch a cold. Considering that Germany remains the 4th largest economy in the world, however, the way in which she is remembered is largely immaterial. One should judge

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character based on what one does, not what one says.

Laschet, fought off fierce conservative competition in

On this basis, her record seems to attest for her brin-

Friedrich Merz, in his party’s online leadership election in

ging ideas into fruition. Following the Fukushima disaster

January. He faces federal competition, though, from the

of 2011, she began a nuclear phase-out campaign, much

more popular Bavarian leader Markus Söder (who, nota-

to the pleasure of German liberals. She also allowed for

bly, has not yet announced whether he will stand). With

over a million asylum seekers to settle within her borders,

the federal election scheduled for the 26th of September

amongst an almost multilateral consensus of treating

later this year, that Laschet is the ‘frontrunner’ is enti-

them with animosity (this was often manifested in the

rely mercurial. Post-Merkel aside, an entire generation of Germans

form of barbed wire, water cannons and tanks). To paint a perfect picture of her tenure, though,

have known no Chancellor other than her. In leaving

would be naive. Indeed, her legacy will be fraught with

politics entirely, a philosophy of stability, temperance,

claims of European imperialism for her involvement

boldness and progress is to be foregone in pursuit of

in Greece’s economic recovery. Weakness in the face

retirement. Germany must be wise in its approach to

of China, namely with her facilitation of Huawei’s 5G

losing the most experienced diplomat in G7. In the face

network in Germany, will add to this also. And, perhaps

of domestic turmoil and shifting global dynamics, the

most emphatically, her increasing reliance on Russian

world’s largest exporter of cars must weather the ine-

gas with Nord Stream 2 will be an everlasting stain on

vitable storm. As such, all that remains is to say Auf Wiedersehen,

an otherwise, largely aseptic reputation. Naturally, the question of her successorship remains.

Frau Merkel. Haben Sie einen guten Ruhestand.

Merkel’s nomination for leader of the CDU, Armin

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THE GAP INSTINCT AND TH BY OLUWAJOBA THOMAS

Let me begin this article with a simple question: Where does the majority of the world population live?

help this, this ‘’mega-misconception’’, as Hans Rosling, author of Factfulness puts it, is exacerbated by the fact

•

A = Low-income countries

that everywhere development is discussed (including

•

B = Middle-income countries

the United Nations), countries are grouped into either

•

C = High-income countries

‘’developed countries’’ or ‘’developing countries’’. There are two problems with this classification of

(The answer to this question is included at the bot-

development. The first, is that it creates the perception of

If you answered the question above incorrectly, do not worry. Most people, including myself (prior to reading Factfulness), did so too. For most people, the question above was answered incorrectly due to having an ‘’overdramatic world-view’’, a perception of the world in which there are two polar-opposites, developed and developing countries - the rich and the poor. Unsurprisingly, the media has contributed greatly to the adoption of this worldview, constantly bombarding us with images of the ‘’wealthy-elite’’ and their multi-million-pound yachts, and then contrasting this with images of those living in extreme poverty, exclaiming that the ‘’gap’’ between these two groups is widening. The problem with this worldview is that it is both a false image of the world and encourages a society where there is an inability to recognise and celebrate the unbelievable progress humanity has made over the last two centuries. Moreover, our inability to have a fact-based worldview is both worrying, albeit intriguing. Our general perception of the world consists of two extremes and this perception of these

a ‘’gap’’. According to the World Bank, 75% of the world’s population, the majority of people, live in middle-income countries, right where the so-called ‘’gap’’ is supposed to be. As a result of this, the division of the world into either developing or developed countries is an inaccurate representation of reality. Despite this, the terms ‘’developed’’ and ‘’developing’’ are still used by academics, politicians, and many other influential individuals today. To exemplify the problem, here is a graph (below) showing the number of babies per woman and the percentage of children surviving to age 5 in both ‘’developed’’ and ‘’developing’’ countries. The graph shows a clear gap between the chances of children surviving in poor countries and children surviving in rich countries. However, what was not mentioned in this graph is the fact that this is a graph representing inequality in 1965. Comparatively, also below is a more recent representation of this same graph. Here, the box containing developing countries is relatively empty, with numerous countries being situated in the middle, where the so called ‘’gap’’ should be. Not only does this represent significant progress over the last few decades, but it

two extremes is what naturally causes many to visualise

also emphasises why the term ‘’developed’’ and ‘’deve-

the groups being terrifyingly far apart, with a huge ‘gap’

loping’’ are outdated. They may have been appropriate

in the middle; a gap that many believe should be clo-

terms years ago, but in the modern world, they are no

sed. I would too, if this gap existed… World leaders don’t

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P H OT O BY SI M ON M A O N UN S P L ASH

tom of the article)

HE DANGER OF "CLUMPING" longer appropriate.

This is because there is no way to differentiate between

The second problem with the “developed” and

countries in the ‘’developing’’ category – they are all

“developing’ is that these terms contribute to an act

just referred to as “developing countries”. Such a system implies that a country such as China has the same level of development as the Central African Republic – these countries could not be more different. If people could differentiate between these vastly different countries, people would see that the so called ‘’gap’’ does not exist, and that the world has improved greatly. In fact, Hans Rosling, produced a much more representative framework to classify countries across the globe – an income level system. Below, there are four income levels, level 1 being the lowest level of income (extreme poverty), and level 4, being the highest level of income. It is important to note that when a country is placed on a particular level, it means that on average, most people live on that level. As shown, there are huge differences in the quality of life experienced on each level. Roughly 5 billion people (majority of the world population) live on levels 2 and 3 combined – here, people begin to live reasonable lives. It is worrying, however, that about 10% of the world’s population currently lives on level 1, in extreme poverty. Whilst this may seem like an unacceptable figure (and it is), it is also important to recognise and celebrate the unbelievable progress that has been made over the last two centuries. In 1800, roughly 85% of the world’s population lived on level 1, extreme poverty. Now that figure has reduced to 10%. In addition to this, in the past 20 years alone, the number of people living

I refer to as ‘’clumping’’, where several countries are

in extreme poverty has halved. This represents a huge

‘’clumped’’ together so that they are indistinguisha-

achievement (certainly contributed to by organisations

ble from each other, in terms of their development.

such as the United Nations), with billions of people now

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experiencing a much higher quality of life than ever before. This is not to say that there the remaining 10% are irrelevant, of course they matter. But it is important to remember that the world can be both ‘’bad and better’’, as Hans Rosling puts it.

Overall, whenever a ‘’gap’’ is talked about, especially when referring to the difference in income between rich and poor countries, it is vital that we remember that the majority lie right in the middle, where the “gap” is supposed to be. Additionally, even among the ‘’poor’’ countries, there is great variation in the levels of development, ranging from people unable to afford basic footwear, to people being able to afford a cheap bicycle, a mode of transportation that will greatly enhance their living standards and productivity. It is imperative that we adopt a ‘’fact-based’’ world-view rather than an overdramatic world-view consisting of polar-opposites and a huge ever-growing ‘’gap’’ that, in reality, does not exist. (The answer to the question at the start of the article is ‘’B’’)

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PHOTO BY THOMAS SCOTT ON UNSPLASH

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