How Germans Will Travel 2015 Table of Contents
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Tourism Intelligence International Tourism Intelligence International is a leading research and consultancy company, that provides innovative solutions for the travel and tourism industry. Innovation, sustainability and competitiveness are the hallmarks of this consultancy. This report — How Germans will Travel 2015 — is another in a series of tourism market analyses. Other reports from Tourism Intelligence International include: Sustainable Tourism Development – A Practical Guide for Decision-Makers Travel & Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets (forthcoming 2008) Successful Hotels and Resorts – Lessons from the Leaders Successful Tourism Destinations – Lessons from the Leaders How the Americans will Travel 2015 How Germans will Travel 2015 How the British will Travel 2010 How the Japanese will Travel 2007 World Travel and Tourism – Year in Review (forthcoming 2009) Tourism Industry Intelligence Newsletter (monthly) Tourism Intelligence International: German Office An der Wolfskuhle 48 33619 Bielefeld Germany Tel: (49) 521 16 38 83 Fax: (49) 521 16 38 84 E-mail: apoon@tourism-intelligence.com
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Website: http://www.tourism-intelligence.com © 2008 Tourism Intelligence International. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Copyright Conditions The material contained in this report has been derived from statistical, trade, company and other sources, including Tourism Intelligence International estimates. All information is verified to the best of the authors’ and publisher’s ability. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, Tourism Intelligence International cannot accept liability for any data herein, any interpretation made therefrom, or for any loss arising from reliance thereon. Tourism Intelligence International reserves all copyright under international copyright law. How Germans Will Travel 2015 may not be copied, stored, reproduced or published in any format, in whole or in part, by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise — or disseminated to any third party without prior written permission of Tourism Intelligence International, Germany Published July 2008
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About the Authors Dr. Auliana Poon heads Tourism Intelligence International Ltd., a leading international consulting company that provides innovative solutions for the travel and tourism industry. Innovation, sustainability and competitiveness are the hallmarks of this consultancy. Auliana Poon led the teams that developed the tourism policy and strategy for the new South Africa in 1996; developed strategies for trend-setting companies such Sandals International (Jamaica) and Conservation Corporation (Africa); and developed the “tourism begins at home” programme that sparked the turn around in the Bahamas tourism industry in the early 1990s. Auliana Poon also led Tourism Intelligence International’s technical support teams in implementing the Euro 6 million Eco-Tourism Development Programme (2003-2007) in the Commonwealth of Dominica and in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (2007-2009). In 2005, she undertook the competitive assessment of the Barbados Tourism Industry; developed the framework for the management and promotion of the Abu Dhabi tourism industry (2004); the Singapore Tourism Board (2003-2004); developed the Marketing and Human resource development strategies for Mozambique (2004-2005). She has provided critical support to the development of a UniVisa System (along the lines of Schengen) in the Southern African Region in preparation for World Cup 2010 and is responsible for the development of one of the Caribbean’s leading resort brands in Africa. Auliana Poon is analyst, co-author and editor of many of Tourism Intelligence International Publications including ‘How Germany will Travel 2015’; ‘How the British will Travel 2010’, ‘How Americans will Travel 2010’ (forthcoming) and Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets (forthcoming) as well as the company’s monthly newsletter (since 1994), ‘Tourism Industry Intelligence’ that is also available in Spanish. Auliana Poon is credited with: !
Inventing the concepts of ‘Old Tourism’ and ‘New Tourism’ to describe the rapid and radical transformation of the travel and tourism industry.
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Developed the concept of ‘Responsible Tourism’ as a fundamental premise of the South Africa tourism policy and growth strategy in the early 1990s.
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Producing one of the most referenced works on travel and tourism ‘Tourism, Technology and Competitive Strategies’ that one review claims ”should certainly be on the compulsory reading list of all those seeking to advise and direct strategic plan for both old and new tourism destinations”.
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Advising Abu Dhabi to ‘stay different’ from Dubai; to focus on its culture, heritage and traditions and to assume its role as a true capital of the Emirates, with an appropriate icon – The Pearl – a pearl-like glass structure on 11 floors, out at sea, that
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would celebrate the life and times of its late Ruler Sheik Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan (1971-2004). !
Developed the concept of ‘Compassionate Tourism’ for Malawi.
Auliana regularly addresses travel and tourism conferences in many countries including Aruba, Barcelona, Barbados, Benin, Brazil, Denmark, Geneva, Greece, Iceland, Hong Kong, Minnesota, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, London, Mozambique, Singapore, South Africa, Washington and many others. An economist by training, Auliana Poon (apoon@tourism-intelligence.com) graduated with a B.A (hons) and and M.Sc (Economics) from the University of the West Indies, Trinidad. She attended one of the leading European Schools, the Science Policy Research Unit at Sussex University (England), where she graduated with a D. Phil (Tourism & Technology) in 1988.
Dieter Semmelroth is a trained economist and sociologist who studied in Germany and Jamaica. In 1980 he started his career as an Associate Expert for the International Labour Organization based in Nassau, Bahamas, and Kingston, Jamaica. Later he worked in various capacities for international consulting firms in South America, Africa and Asia. In 1991 he joined Preussag AG as a specialist for Project Finance. In the following years, Semmelroth was involved in the financing of infrastructure and industrial projects, located mainly in Russia and CIS countries. After Preussag’s acquisition of TUI in 1997, he was engaged in project development and aircraft and hotel financing. More recently, Mr. Semmelroth has been involved in financing TUI’s hotel projects in South-Eastern Europe and Northern Africa. Currently he holds the position of Senior Manager Structured Finance at one of Europe’s largest tour operators TUI AG, Germany.
Eric Adams graduated with First Class Honours (Mathematics and Economics) from the University of the West Indies (Trinidad). He holds an M.Sc. in Actuarial Science from the University of Iowa (USA) and an MBA (Finance and Investments) from George Washington University (USA). Eric Adams is a Business Consultant specialising in the areas of tourism and financial forecasting, investments and financial IT systems development. Eric Adams is an Associate of the Society of Actuaries and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. He also lectures in tourism forecasting demand and has developed forecasts for tourism arrivals to many regions and destinations worldwide.
Kevon Wilson, graduated with Upper Second Class Honours from the University of the West Indies (St. Augustine, Trinidad) in 2000, after reading a Bachelor of Science degree in Management and Finance. Kevon Wilson is a Research Analyst at Tourism Intelligence International. One of his recent assignments was in the Commonwealth of Dominica where he provided technical support to the Euro 6 billion Eco-Tourism Development Programme, a viii
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programme funded by the European Union and implemented by Tourism Intelligence International. Kevon Wilson was also a Senior Executive at an investment agency, in charge of Product Development and Administration. Prior to joining Tourism Intelligence International, Kevon Wilson spent two years in London where, apart from pursuing his studies, he worked as a manager at one of the largest UK-based restaurant chains, JD Wetherspoon.
Johannes Spalburg has more than 15 years of international Sales & Marketing experience in the Hospitality & Travel Industry, while based in 5 different countries on 3 different continents (Europe, the Americas and Southern Africa). He holds an MBA in Hospitality Management from Cornell/Essex (IMHI, France) and speaks 6 (six) languages, including Dutch, English, French, German and Spanish, as well as Italian. Jo Spalburg worked as Marketing Consultant for Horwarth International France (Paris) and occupied various Sales & Marketing positions - at Headquarters, Regional and Local level- for a number of international hospitality and travel firms, including: MKI Ltd – i.e. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, South Seas Resorts, Renaissance Cruises, Pemberton Hotels and many other independent Hotels and Resorts - (London), ITT Sheraton Luxury Hotels (London), Jet Hotels (Air France Group, Paris), Hilton International France (Paris & Strasbourg) and Steigenberger Hotel Krasnapolsky (Amsterdam) and the Caribbean Tourism Organisation. Jo Spalburg carried out primary research on many international markets on behalf of Tourism Intelligence International’s clients including Abu Dhabi, Barbados, Mozambique and Singapore.
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Acknowledgements In preparing this report, Tourism Intelligence International would like to specially thank the many German Tour Operators who took the time and effort to complete our survey. The authors would also like to thank the many individual tourism destinations that supplied key data for our forecasts; Barbara Morris for her research assistance and her coordination of the German Tour Operator Survey; Lea Katharina Kramer and Waldemar Wagner who also provided research assistance; and the World Tourism Organisation and the Caribbean Tourism Organisation for the data provided.
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Foreword Germany is world champion in terms of trips and nights spent abroad. The country is second only to the US in tourist spending. In 2015, Germany is expected to retain its position as one of the world’s largest source markets for tourists. The German market is a lucrative source market. Consider that: ! Germans have an enormous appetite for travel. Two-thirds of all Germans opt to travel abroad rather than holiday at home. ! Germans have the highest travel propensity in the world. In 2007, more than three-quarters of all Germans took at least one holiday or more. ! Germany’s potential travelling population is conservatively estimated at 65 million – larger than the absolute population of any single country in Europe. ! Germans have the most paid holidays in the world (6 weeks per year). ! It is socially acceptable for Germans to take holidays. ! The holiday has become as much a basic necessity as owning a car. Germans will not give up their holiday easily. Tourist destinations and businesses the world over are targeting the Germanspeaking market. At the same time, the German, Swiss and Austrian travel markets are complex. Austrian, German and Swiss travellers are informed, individual and demanding clients, and their travel industry structures are highly competitive and changing rapidly. This report is written for all tourism destinations and businesses that are interested in targeting the German-speaking market: ! Airlines ! Hotels & resorts ! Cruise lines ! Incoming agencies ! Auto rental companies ! Travel Agencies & Tour Operators ! Consultants ! Credit card companies ! Corporate travel and tourism research offices worldwide ! National Tourism Offices ! Government Ministries and planning authorities.
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German travel behaviour is well-researched. Forschungsgemeinschaft fĂźr Urlaub und Reisen (F.U.R) does a quantitative survey of the German market periodically. BAT Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut has done research on trends and the more qualitative aspects of leisure behaviour. The innovation of this report is to pull this information from many other valuable sources together as well as field its own tour operator survey to deliver: 1)
Forecast data on travel patterns;
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A thorough understanding of the demographic and psychographic German travel market.
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An understanding of the key future trends in the German-speaking market and
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Concrete guidelines on how to target the German-speaking market.
How Germans Will Travel 2015 delivers essential information needed to understand and effectively target the German, Austrian and Swiss travel markets. How Germans Will Travel 2015: ! explains how, why and the extent to which the German market will grow to 2015; ! identifies the most lucrative states in Germany to target; ! identifies the regions that will have the most rapid growth of German tourist arrivals; ! analyses how Germans think, feel and behave; ! examines the special interest markets with growth potential; ! predicts how the German market will grow to 2015; ! provides detailed information on the legal hazards of operating in Germany; ! provides information that will help you target the German market more effectively; ! Identifies key actions and strategies needed to target the German market; and ! provides analyses of the Austrian and Swiss travel markets. How Germans Will Travel 2015 is compulsory reading for all those who are interested in targeting the lucrative German-speaking market. Bielefeld, July 2008.
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Contents About the Authors Foreword Executive Summary 1. The German Travel Market ...............................................................................................1! 1.1! Size and Importance ..................................................................................................... 3! 1.2! Federal States and Their Travel Intensities .................................................................. 9! 1.3! Federal States.............................................................................................................. 11! 1.4! Income Levels ............................................................................................................ 18! 1.5! Rate of Economic Growth .......................................................................................... 19! 1.6 Unemployment Levels................................................................................................ 20! 1.7! Travel Intensity........................................................................................................... 20! 1.8! Most Lucrative States ................................................................................................. 21! 1.9! Differences Between East and West........................................................................... 24! 2. German Travel Patterns ...................................................................................................27! 2.1! Travel Market Growth ................................................................................................ 29! 2.2! Preference for Holidays Abroad ................................................................................ 32! 2.3! Main and Additional Holiday Trips .......................................................................... 34! 2.4! Staggered School Holidays......................................................................................... 35! 2.5! Time of Decision to Travel....................................................................................... 36! 2.6! Time of Travel .......................................................................................................... 37! 2.7! Organisation of the Main Holiday Trip ...................................................................... 39! 2.8! Who Germans Travel With ........................................................................................ 42! 2.9! Where Germans Stay .................................................................................................. 43! 2.10! How Much Germans Spend...................................................................................... 46! 3. Special Interest Markets ...................................................................................................51! 3.1! The German Cruise Market ........................................................................................ 53! 3.1.1! Ocean Cruises ...................................................................................................... 53! 3.1.2! River Cruises ....................................................................................................... 59! 3.1.3! Why Cruises?....................................................................................................... 61! 3.1.4! Outlook for the German Cruise Market............................................................... 63! 3.2 ! The German Golf Market .......................................................................................... 64! 3.2.1! Growth in the German Golf Market .................................................................... 64! 3.2.2! Profile of the German Golfer............................................................................... 65! 3.2.3! Travel Preference of German Golfers ................................................................. 66! 3.2.4! Expectations of Golf Travellers........................................................................... 68! 3.3! Health and Wellness ................................................................................................... 69! 3.3.1! Types of Health and Wellness Holidays ............................................................. 70! How Germans Will Travel 2015
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3.3.2! Health and Wellness versus Other Holiday Types .............................................. 71! 3.3.3 ! Why Health and Wellness? ................................................................................ 73! 3.3.4! Profile of the Health and Wellness Tourist ......................................................... 73! 3.3.5! Future Outlook for Health and Wellness............................................................. 75! 3.3.6! Top Health & Wellness Destinations .................................................................. 76! 3.4! !Sailing ........................................................................................................................ 77! 3.5! Diving ........................................................................................................................ 79! 3.6! !Holiday Types Affecting German Outbound Travel to 2015.................................... 80! 4. The German Traveller ......................................................................................................83! 4.1 Age, Income and Education ..........................................................................................85! 4.1.1 Age .........................................................................................................................85! 4.1.2 Income ....................................................................................................................90! 4.1.3 Education ................................................................................................................91! 4.2 Germans Want Quality ..................................................................................................93! 4.3 Motivation for Travel ....................................................................................................96! 4.4 What Germans Do on Holiday ......................................................................................98! 4.5 Future German Holiday Motives.................................................................................100! 4.6 Future Holiday Interests ..............................................................................................101! 4.7 Types of German Travellers ........................................................................................103! 4.8 Germans are “New” Tourists.......................................................................................111! 4.9 From Escape to Fulfilment ..........................................................................................113! 4.10 Growing Environmental Concern..............................................................................114! 4.11 Interest in Contact with Locals..................................................................................118! 4.12 Future Target Markets ..............................................................................................118! 4.13 Germans Will Travel .................................................................................................120! 5. Where Germans Travel ..................................................................................................121! 5.1! Preferred Destinations ..............................................................................................123! 5.2! World Regions at a Glance.......................................................................................126! 5.3! The European Region ...............................................................................................129! 5.4! Destinations Outside of Europe................................................................................133! 5.5! The East Asia & Pacific Rim....................................................................................134! 5.6! The Americas............................................................................................................138! 5.6.1! North America ...................................................................................................139! 5.6.2! The Caribbean ...................................................................................................141! 5.6.3! Central & South America ..................................................................................143! 5.7! The African Region ..................................................................................................146! 5.8! The Middle East .......................................................................................................149! 5.9! South Asia ................................................................................................................150! 5.10! Destination Marketing Strategies ...........................................................................153! 6. German Travel Forecast to 2015....................................................................................155! 6.1! Major Determinants and Influences of Travel Demand ........................................... 155! 6.2! Economic Performance ............................................................................................ 158! iv
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6.2.1! Unemployment .................................................................................................. 162! 6.2.2! Exchange Rates ................................................................................................ 163! 6.3! Why Forecast........................................................................................................... 167! 6.4! Forecasting Methodology ......................................................................................... 167! 6.5! Data and Data Limitations........................................................................................ 169! 6.6! Forecast of German Outbound Travel Demand ...................................................... 171! 6.7! Destination Forecasting ............................................................................................ 175! 6.7.1 Destination Spain............................................................................................... 175! 6.7.2! Destination Austria ............................................................................................ 177! 6.7.3! Destination USA................................................................................................ 179! 6.7.4! Destination Singapore ....................................................................................... 181! 6.7.5! Destination South Africa ................................................................................... 183! 6.7.6! Destination Dominican Republic ...................................................................... 185! 6.8! Destination Trends to 2015 ...................................................................................... 187! 6.9! Regional Growth ...................................................................................................... 189! 7. Travel Business in Germany...........................................................................................193! 7.1! Aviation Industry...................................................................................................... 193! 7.1.1! Airports.............................................................................................................. 193! 7.1.2! Airlines .............................................................................................................. 195! 7.1.3! Low Cost Carriers.............................................................................................. 201! 7.1.4! Impact of High Fuel Costs on Airlines.............................................................. 201! 7.2! Tour Operators.......................................................................................................... 202! 7.2.1! Emerging Trends in the Dynamic Packaging Sector......................................... 206! 7.3! Travel Agents ........................................................................................................... 207! 7.3.1! Wholesale Operator Services ............................................................................ 208! 7.4! Industry Structure ..................................................................................................... 209! 7.5! Cruise Business ........................................................................................................ 210! 7.6! Use of Technology ................................................................................................... 211! 8. Austria ..............................................................................................................................219! 8.1! Austrian Outbound Travel ........................................................................................ 219! 8.2! Age of the Travellers ................................................................................................ 225! 8.3! Travel Destination .................................................................................................... 225! 8.4! Type of Holiday........................................................................................................ 227! 8.5! Quality Standards for Austrian Tourists................................................................... 228! 8.6! Type of Accommodation .......................................................................................... 229! 8.7! Type of Transportation ............................................................................................. 230! 8.8! Type of Holiday Organisation .................................................................................. 231! 9. Switzerland.......................................................................................................................233! 9.1! Growth Potential....................................................................................................... 233! 9.2! Number of Trips per Year ........................................................................................ 234! 9.3! Socio-demographic and Areal Influences ................................................................ 235! 9.3.1! Income ............................................................................................................... 235! How Germans Will Travel 2015
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9.3.2! Travel Spending................................................................................................. 236! 9.3.3! Age .................................................................................................................... 237! 9.4! Type of Travel .......................................................................................................... 238! 9.5! Purpose of Travel ..................................................................................................... 239! 9.6! Time and Duration of Travel .................................................................................... 240! 9.7! Time of Booking....................................................................................................... 241! 9.8! Means of Travel........................................................................................................ 242! 9.9! Travel Organisation .................................................................................................. 243! 9.10! Type of Accommodation ........................................................................................ 245! 9.11! Airline Selection ..................................................................................................... 246! 9.12! Tour Operator Services........................................................................................... 247! 10. Legal Hazards ................................................................................................................249! 11. German Customs and Etiquette – What you Need to Know.....................................261! 12. German Travel Trade Vocabulary ..............................................................................267! 13. Guide to Further Sources .............................................................................................277!
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