Tom Shannon

on Latin America

Senior International Policy Advisor at Arnold & Porter; former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Senior Fellow

The pandemic has generated a cascade of crises in Latin America. What started as a public health crisis has provoked an economic crisis which has generated a political crisis. Absent significant external help to overcome the vaccine deficit, the pandemic will continue to swirl through Latin America. This vortex of crises will profoundly reshape Latin America. It will transform political representation, open space for new voices, and challenge the region’s democratic institutions. What is evident, however, is that the citizens of Latin America want to confront their problems within a democracy. However, they want a democracy capable of delivering results, and translating democratic processes into social and economic advancement. Rhetorical and ideological politics will give way to a politics of achievement.

Legitimacy will be determined by outcomes more than by process. This creates an opportunity for Latin America to move to the next stage of its democratic development: using democratic governance to create a democratic society in which citizens will increasingly seek not just a voice in determining national destiny, but also a voice in determining their own individual destiny. This will be an opportunity for Latin America to show that societies can undertake profound transformation within a context of relative peace and stability. To accomplish this, however, the region will need to transform its regional institutions and rebuild the multilateral structures and frameworks that will generate solidarity and cooperation in the region. This will create a diplomatic opportunity for Latin America, and an increasingly interested world, to define its future by how its many countries relate to each other and a globalized world.

What advice do you have for the next generation of diplomatic practitioners?

Increasingly, the tone and direction of relations between states will be determined by peoples and societies, and not governments. Diplomats, to be successful, will have to understand the societies in which they live and work, and not just the narrow dictates of political leadership.