Geopolitics of Energy Project

The Geopolitics of Energy Project explores the intersection of energy, climate, national security, and international affairs.

Director:

Meghan O’Sullivan

Project Coordinator:

Cassandra Favart

The Geopolitics of Energy Project (GEP) continues to examine the ever-changing dynamic between energy, climate, and international affairs. The project produces research, writing, and verbal analysis of this landscape, seeking to inform policymakers and students about major challenges and opportunities at the intersection of these forces.

Over the past year, the project has sharpened its focus on the geopolitics of the energy transition. Earlier work of the project sought to anticipate how global politics will be reordered by a successful transition, looking at the geopolitical realities that will be introduced by new energy sources and relationships. In this vein, the current research of Fellow Juergen Braunstein examines how the energy transition will transform the world’s global financial centers. His forthcoming book highlights how past transitions have done exactly that and anticipates how the current energy transition away from fossil fuels will do the same.

The GEP, however, is now concentrating more on how the transition process itself will bring unintended consequences and will be dramatically destabilizing to current patterns of politics; the geopolitics of the decades-long transition is likely to be quite distinct in nature from the geopolitics of a world that is net zero in its emissions. Rather than the old geopolitics of oil and gas gradually giving way to new geopolitics of alternative energy sources, the GEP expects to see the geopolitics of new energy to be—for decades—layered on top of the still-existent geopolitics of oil and gas. The result is a highly complex and volatile geopolitical arena—one that not only brings new national security challenges, but creates risks for the transition itself. If policymakers and citizens come to see the energy transition as at odds with core national security issues, the transition could stall.

In the past year, the GEP has pursued research and activities to advance knowledge in this field. These activities have included a set of virtual workshops done in conjunction with the Global Center for Energy Policy at Columbia University to bring together experts from all over the world to better understand the pathways for certain energy sources and the geopolitical uncertainties that accompany them. In addition, the GEP has briefed policymakers in the United States and beyond about these dynamics and has published related articles geared toward a policymaker audience. This work will continue, culminating in a future book or long form report.