CLIMATE CHANGE - TOWARDS ADAPTATION Introduction

Extreme weather events have pushed climate adaptation and managed retreat to the forefront of the national conversation in New Zealand.

As New Zealanders grapple with how –and where – to rebuild, similar discussions are cropping up all around the world. Unusually damaging weather, soaring temperatures and toppling records have been drivers. So too has been widespread acknowledgement that the world’s chances of restraining global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius are fast slipping away.

Last year, the UN’s environment agency said there is “no credible pathway to 1.5C in place” with the world still falling short on climate goals. The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report said national climate pledges leave the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.4-2.6 degrees by the end of the century.1 More recently, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation said in May that breach of the 1.5 degrees threshold is likely in the next five years.2

This is a world in which climate adaptation must go hand-in-hand with renewed efforts to rein in increasing temperature. The Climate Adaptation Act, the third part of the Government’s proposed reform of resource management laws and centrepiece of New Zealand’s planned adaptation legislation, was expected to be unveiled before the election this year but has yet to emerge.

Law reform could help or hinder the process around adaptation, and there are still many details to be debated. New Zealand needs a well-thought out plan before the next state of emergency. The best chance for that will be if there is strong leadership on climate issues, cooperation and agreement – even as we go to the polling booths.

It’s not all bad news. Greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand fell in the year to December 2022 even as the impact of COVID restrictions faded, according to the latest data from Statistics New Zealand,3 and two significant decarbonisation deals between the Government and heavy emitters offered a glimpse of what might be achieved to hasten New Zealand’s trajectory towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

For business, climate issues are increasing in significance, scope and reach. In The Big Picture Climate Change: towards adaptation, we take a closer look at the increasing range of factors businesses must now consider, from increased regulatory scrutiny of environmental claims, to the uncertainty around carbon pricing amid ongoing consultations on the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS). We also look further ahead, to what’s coming next. Could ‘Blue Carbon’ support New Zealand’s transition to a low-emission economy? Will a framework to disclose nature-related risks come into view for some businesses?

To play its part, the business sector will need certainty that if decisions are made and investments follow, plans put in place won’t be up-ended. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Climate change will affect all of us and we will all need to work together.