In recent weeks, the presidential primaries have been filled with lots of surprises, the most notable being the unexpected success of political outsider Donald Trump. His surge in the polls has been characterized by a willingness to issue controversial remarks to address issues, such as building a wall on the Mexican border to curb illegal immigration and the drug trade. In the aftermath of the San Bernardino terrorist attacks, Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslims to prevent terrorists from clandestinely entering the US amid the torrent of refugees fleeing the chaos in Syria. Trump’s poll numbers show no sign of abating, and Trump’s campaign style is replete with demagoguery and showmanship, pleasing many voters who are angry and upset at the current political establishment. His rise has therefore led to an increasingly visible divide between the Republican Party establishment and the Party’s rank-and-file constituency. While media channels controlled by the establishment-supporting corporations such as Fox News have attempted to anoint Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as the Republican candidate to unify behind to defeat Hillary Clinton, Trump’s current standing with the average Republican is threatening the corporate hold on the Republican power base. Trump’s rise could spell the doom of the Republican Party as we know it. In 2000, 2008 and 2012, all three Republican candidates were supported by the establishment and the conservative media. Pundits quickly coalesced around a single candidate. However, many leading political figures such as Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey have endorsed Donald Trump, exposing the wide variety of interests that the Republican Party endorses. In fact, on the debate stage, the only thing candidates often agree on is their universal disagreement and hate of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party, and their policies. If Trump were to get the nomination, he would not run as a conventional Republican, because much of his rhetoric and intentions seem more similar to populist fascism of 1930s Europe than to modern-day American politics. If he did not, which right now is only possible through a brokered convention where Republican delegates hand another candidate the nomination, the large majority of Republican voters who opted for him as their candidate will lose faith in the party as they will feel that their vote did not
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count. It could be a historic election, like the election of 1816 which doomed the Federalist Party or the election of 1852 which ended the relevance of the Whig Party. No matter what happens, whether Trump gets the nomination or not, the American political landscape is bound to drastically change, whether it be through political revolution as Senator Bernie Sanders promises, or through increased “winning” as Trump promises.
It could be a historic election, like the election of 1816 which doomed the Federalist Party or the election of 1852 which ended the relevance of the Whig Party. The future lies in the hands of American voters, and as of now they appear to be voting mostly for Clinton on the Democratic side. The Republican nomination is still up for grabs, but Trump increasingly looks like he will clinch the nomination.
Competition 3 (March 2016), Winner September 2016
The Podium | Opinion Pieces
Author-Armin Thomas ‘17
5
A Potentially Historic Split in the Republican Party
