2015 LUXURY REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW
CORAL GABLES CREATED BY
BEN MOSS
Dear Neighbor, I would like to share with you my first annual Coral Gables luxury residential real estate market report. Despite the proliferation of data that is accessible to all of us, I find there to be a lack of information for those interested in what is happening in our specific neighborhood. As such, I’ve created neighborhood maps and have paired real estate data that corresponds to each neighborhood. While there is only so much information I can provide in this written report, regular updates can be found at the end of each quarter for each neighborhood within the blog section of my website. Online, I will also provide data about each sale that occurred in your neighborhood. I hope that you find this report to be useful to you. I have lived in the 33146 and 33143 zip codes for the last thirtytwo years, and am proud to serve our community. If I can ever be of service to you, please do not hesitate to let me know. I wish you and your family a healthy, peaceful and prosperous 2016!
Best regards,
www.BenMossGroup.com
MARKET OVERVIEW * CORAL GABLES – WATERFRONT
AVERAGE DAYSONON MARKET AVERAGE DAYS MARKET
SELLING - AVERAGE SELLINGPRICES PRICES – AVERAGE
300
$5M
200 100 0
287 197
191
197
192
2012
2013
2014
2015
SALES TOLIST LIST PRICE SALESPRICE PRICE TO PRICE 88
91
91
90
2012
88
40
2013
2014
0
2012
2013
2012
2014
2015
2015 witnessed 15 sales above $5 M (same number as in 2014), with 4 sales above $10,000,000 (all in Gables Estates). In 2014 there were 2 sales above $10 M and in 2013 only one sale was in excess of $10,000,000. The average sale price was $4,267,140, an increase of 6.6%, driven primarily by ultraluxury sales ($4,500,000 and above). This is far less than the 26% increase from 2013 to 2014. Prices are at their highest range in the last five years.
AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT
AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT
2015
$572
$534
2012
2013
$701
$641
$300 $100 0
2014
2015
Sale prices per square foot range between $317 (land value or major rehab) to $1,682 (Gables Estates, large lot, updated). The average sale price per sq.ft. in 2015 was $641, down 8.5% from $701 in 2014. The number of sales between $3,000,000 $4,500,000 was down 52% from 2014 which helped contribute to the lower per-sq.ft average sale price year over year.
HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN 2015 68
63
55
20 0
$3.17
$4.27
$4.00
$1M
$500
HOME SALES HOME SALES 60
$3M
$700
In the ultra-luxury market, prices tend to be more negotiable than the rest of the market. Unique properties either appeal greatly or not at all in some cases, to the buyer pool. The average property sold for 90% of its list price, slightly lower than the previous year. Homes sold above $4,500,000 sold at an average of 85% of their list price while homes below $3,000,000 sold at 93% of the list price.
80
$4.02
$2M
The average days on market of 192 days is virtually unchanged from the 197 days posted in 2014. There were 3 properties that went under contract in less than 10 days, while 6 properties took over one year to sell. The most expensive sales above $10,000,000 ranged from zero days on market to 1,209 days on market.
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0
$4M
2013
2014
2015
The 55 sales posted in 2015 is the lowest number since 48 properties sold in 2011. The ultra-luxury end of the market is stronger than in years past, but the rest of the waterfront market (sales below $4.5 M) is down 15% since 2014. The down market for waterfront homes has been a factor in the price appreciation for non-waterfront houses in 2015.
PRICE RANGE AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE IN $$ $ SP/SQ SQ FT DAYS ON OF SALES SALES TO MARKET LIST PRICE
Under 1.5M 1.5M - 3M 3M - 4.5M
$294 $520 $680
4,962 4,636 5,274
74 118 225
3 26 9
82% 93% 91%
Over 4.5M $883 9,736 316 15 85%
Roughly 43% of all waterfront sales in 2015 were above $3,000,000 (down from 58% in 2014). Only one house traded under $1,000,000, whereas there were five such sales in 2014. The average house size at the top bracket is almost 1,600 square feet larger than in 2014. The highest sale prices per square foot generally occur for the largest houses, but the days on market is also substantially higher for this subset at an average of 316 days.
* Minimum house size of 3,000 square feet for consideration within Market Overview. Data sourced from Multiple Listing Service.
3
MARKET OVERVIEW * CORAL GABLES – NON-WATERFRONT
AVERAGE DAYSONON MARKET AVERAGE DAYS MARKET
SELLING PRICES - AVERAGE SELLING PRICES – AVERAGE
200
$2.0M
150 100
148
50 0
2012
111
103
2013
2014
129
$1.0M
2015
The average number of days a non-waterfront house was on the market in Coral Gables is up by 25% over 2014, but still well below 2012 levels and well below a peak of 181 days in 2009. There were 5 properties that went under contract in less than 10 days, while 9 properties took over one year to sell.
SALES PRICE LIST PRICE SALES PRICE TO TO LIST PRICE 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0
92
94
93
93
2012
2013
2014
2015
HOME HOMESALES SALES 136
133
132
128
$1.48
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
The average sale price in 2015 was $1,916,109, an increase of 21% over 2014, and by far the highest level in recent history. This is partially driven by more than twice as many sales above $2 MM in 2015 versus 2014. There were two sales above $5 M ($5.3 M & $8.0 M). Slightly rising inventory levels should temper price appreciation in 2016.
AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT $400
$200
$291
$330
$360
$407
$100 0
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average sale prices/square foot ranged between $215 (needs major improvement/rehab) - $864 in 2015. There were 8 sales above $500/sq.ft. The average sale price/square foot was $407 in 2015, an increase of 13% over 2014. By comparison, from 2011 – 2014 the average sale price rose by 25%, and I expect to see an even more modest sale price gain in 2016 as the market shifts away from a seller’s market.
HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN 2015 PRICE RANGE AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE IN $$ $ SP/SQ SQ FT DAYS ON OF SALES SALES TO MARKET LIST PRICE
2012
2013
2014
2015
There were 128 sales in 2015, which is the lowest level in the last few years, but only slightly. However, we are still above the 90 sales in 2010 and 76 sales in 2009. The 149 sales in 2011 still represents the highest sale total in the last 8 years.
4
$1.23
$1.92
$1.58
$.5M
$300
The average negotiation off of the list price in 2015 was 7%, the same as in 2014. The negotiation level off of list price has remained fairly stable over the last few years. There was no correlation between days on market and negotiation off list price. A house that was on the market for 958 days sold at 95% of its list price.
150 120 90 60 30 0
$1.5M
1M or less 1M - 1.5M 1.5M - 2M 2M or more
$251 $359 $396 $489
3,228 3,715 4,509 5,747
97 74 114 193
10 43 25 47
91% 94% 96% 90%
In 2014, nearly 43% of all sales were in the $1 M - $1.5 M range and only 16% of the sales were in the over $2 M range. In 2015, the $1 M - $1.5 M range accounted for 34% of sales while the over $2 M range accounted for 37% of the total sales. The real growth in the market pushing prices higher is in the highest luxury bracket, in which houses average 5,747 square feet. However, the most expensive houses do take the longest to sell and account for the highest negotiation off of the list price.
* Minimum house size of 3,000 square feet for consideration within Market Overview. Data sourced from Multiple Listing Service.
NEIGHBORHOOD OVERVIEW 968 - NON GATED SW 42nd AVE
W FLAGLER ST
*All neighborhood data is derived from closed sales of houses that were listed at or above $1 MM
41
NORTH GABLES
CORTEZ
GRANADA BLVD
SW 8th ST
AM
953 CR
Granada Golf Course
972
CORAL WAY
S RED RD
R
TY
D
Biltmore Golf Course
ER
SI
IV
UN
976
SW 40th ST
959
1
BLUE RD E PO M S A N O AV A C
Y
XI
I SD
SAN AMARO DR
W EH
Riviera Park
1
959 968
968
SW 80th ST
SW 80th ST
CO CO PL
D
PLATINUM PLATINUM TRIANGLE TRIANGLE
D OCLD CU UTTLER LERRD R
SD
I
H XIE
Y
GR
EDGEWATER DR
OL
W
Y
IN
SW 47th SW 47 AVE AVE
ER CREEK EXPY
1
S RED RD
SW 67th AVE
SUNSET DR
HW
AH AM
HARDEE RD
986 SUNSET DR
The Kampong
HW Y
SOUTH GABLES
N
UNIVERSITYRIVIERA
SW 37th AVE
953 S Le JEUNE RD
SW 57th AVE
SW 62nd ST
SW 46th ST
HARDEE DR
GRAND AVE AI
SW 48th ST
MILLER DR
SW 40th ST
Riviera Golf Course
M
SW 67th ST
THE BILTMORE
SW 22ND ST SW 37th AVE
PONCE DE LEON BLVD
CORAL WAY
BRA
SW 16th ST
UM
RD
5
SW 32nd AVE
SW 57th AVE
16th ST ALH
GRANADA COUNTRY CLUB
SW 8th ST
PONCE DE LEON BLVD
SW 8th ST
FOR SALE: ANASTASIA, CORAL GABLES, FL
CONTACT BEN MOSS 305-793-4783 Presenting luxury townhomes with 3 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, ranging between 3,275 sq.ft. – 3,904 sq.ft. in size, with either an open-air courtyard or roof-top terrace. Priced from $1,369,000. Built in 2015. NORTH GABLES 2015
NORTH GABLES YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
2014 2015
7 20
MEDIAN PRICE
$ 1,203,571 $1,125,000 $ 1,401,850 $1,332,500
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
SALES/ LIST PRICE
$370 $380
57 102
93% 94%
20 10 5
There is a very tight 4.7-month supply with only 9 active listings and 20 sales in 2015. For houses listed above $1M, prices ranged from $840,000-$1,900,000 or, $191/sq.ft. $558/sq.ft. 2015 witnessed a spike in sales, with 50% more sales than the previous two years combined.
PRICE PER SQ FT
2014 17 $1,341,235 $1,250,000 $371 2015 19 $1,486,342 $1,392,500 $403
AVG DOM
81 96
7
8
8
20
7
2012 2013 2014 2015
GRANADA COUNTRY CLUB 2015
GRANADA GOLF/COUNTRY CLUB MEDIAN PRICE
7
15
0
YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
SALES/ LIST PRICE
20
93% 94%
10
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
15 5 0
Sales were virtually the same as 2014, but the average sale price/sq.ft. grew by a modest 3%. There is a 12-month supply of inventory. There were three sales above $500/sq.ft. with 1220 S Greenway leading the pack at $554/sq.ft., followed by 1261 N Greenway at $535/sq.ft. Only one house sold was built after 2000.
8
13
17 19
2012 2013 2014 2015
THE BILTMORE 2015
THE BILTMORE YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 29 $1,457,172 $1,320,000 $357 112 2015 28 $1,764,071 $1,472,500 $447 134
SALES/ LIST PRICE
93% 93%
30 20 10 0
There is a 13-month supply of inventory, and 26 active listings. Number of sales have ranged from 21-29 in last three years. 814 Coral Way is a very unique property and sold for highest absolute & per-sq.ft. price in 2014: $3,900,000 & $864/sq.ft. Balance of sales ranged from $348 - $538/sq.ft.
6
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
22 21
29 28
2012 2013 2014 2015
UNIVERSITY / RIVIERA
UNIVERSITY / RIVIERA YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
30
SALES/ LIST PRICE
2014 26 $1,532,433 $1,350,000 $379 128 2015 31 $1,675,242 $1,550,000 $453 80
20
91% 97%
10 0
There is a 16-month supply of inventory with 26 active listings. 31 sales is the highest level in last three years. Average sale price of $434/sq.ft. was 14% higher than in 2014, which is the highest pricing increase of any Coral Gables neighborhood.
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
2014 39 $1,749,295 $1,450,000 $455 2015 26 $1,919,579 $1,600,000 $497
AVG DOM
77 90
SALES/ LIST PRICE
94% 94%
40
2012
2013
31
2014 2015
20 10
There is a 19-month supply based upon absorption in 2015. Two highest sales were 832 Alfonso ($768/sq.ft.) and 1060 Alfonso ($659/sq.ft.), both on the waterway. Highest non-waterfront sale was 1020 Placetas at $555/sq.ft. Total sales were down by 12 from 2014.
14
29
39 39 26
2012 2013 2014 2015
PLATINUM TRIANGLE 2015
PLATINUM TRIANGLE MEDIAN PRICE
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
30
0
YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
17 20
26
SOUTH GABLES 2015
SOUTH GABLES YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 13 $1,891,154 $1,650,000 $577 140 2015 13 $1,737,827 $1,475,000 $443 51
SALES/ LIST PRICE
94% 98%
There is a very tight 4-month supply of inventory, so it’s very much a seller’s market in this neighborhood. 12 sales ranged from $327-$598/sq.ft. 4774 Sunset & 601 Gondoliere were the only properties that sold above $2 MM ($4.65 M & $2.575 M, respectively).
15 12 9 6 3 0
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
10
15
13 13
2012 2013 2014 2015
7
FOR SALE: THE GRAND OAK ESTATE, SNAPPER CREEK 10001 Fairchild Way, Coral Gables, FL
CONTACT BEN MOSS 305-793-4783 The 9,096 sq.ft residence is located in Snapper Creek and has 6 bedrooms, 8.5 bathrooms, and is set on just over 1 acre. Price: $6,750,000 – Sq. Ft.: 9,096 – 6 Bedrooms/8.5 Bathrooms – Lot Size: 45,430 sq.ft.
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NEIGHBORHOOD OVERVIEW - GATED COMMUNITIES *All neighborhood data is derived from closed sales of houses that were listed at or above $1 MM
SUNRISE HARBOUR
986
COCOPLUM & TAHITI BEACH
Old
SW 80th ST
Cu tle rR d
1
S Red Rd
26
SW 88th ST
SW 67th ST
1
GABLES ESTATES
OLD CUTLER BAY JOURNEY’S END HAMMOCK LAKES
SW 104th ST
HAMMOCK OAKS
SW 112th ST SNAPPER CREEK LAKES
Montgomery Dr
Cu Old
SW 67th ST
SW 72nd ST
tle rR
d
ATLANTIC OCEAN GABLES BY THE SEA
FOR SALE: THE GRAND OAK ESTATE, SNAPPER CREEK
COCOPLUM & TAHITI BEACH 2015
COCOPLUM & TAHITI BEACH YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
2014 2015
21 22
MEDIAN PRICE
$ 2,919,190 $2,600,000 $ 2,910,930 $2,660,000
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
SALES/ LIST PRICE
$531 $520
169 230
92% 91%
25 20 15 10 5 0
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
20 23 21 22
There is a 16-month supply of inventory with 29 properties available. With 21 sales in 2014, 2012 2013 2014 2015 22 sales in 2015 is very steady. 185 Los Pinos sold for highest absolute and per-sq.ft. prices of $6,050,000 and $828/sq.ft., respectively. 13 houses sold within 10% of their list price. GABLES ESTATES 2015
GABLES ESTATES YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 10 $9,190,000 $7,675,000 $1,311 284 2015 8 $10,208,463 $9,875,000 $946 513
SALES/ LIST PRICE
90% 83%
12 8
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
11 10 10
4
8
0 There is a 21-month supply of inventory with 8 sales in 2015 and 14 active listings. 2014 2012 2013 2014 2015 witnessed one sale above $10 M, whereas we saw four sales above $10 M in 2015. Prices ranged from $872/sq.ft. - $1,682/sq.ft. 555 Leucadendra was the only property that sold above $1,000/sq.ft. (other 7 traded between $772 - $920/sq.ft.) OLD CUTLER BAY 2015
OLD CUTLER BAY YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 9 $3,447,000 $3,300,000 $698 177 2015 3 $5,130,000 $3,790,000 $829 204
SALES/ LIST PRICE
90% 88%
There is only one active listing and there were three closed sales in 2015 as compared to nine in 2014. 9320 Gallardo sold for highest absolute and per-sq.ft. prices of $8,350,000 & $891, respectively. Prices ranged between $753 - $891/sq.ft.
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 8 $1,457,000 $1,382,,500 $371 61 2015 8 $2,114,375 $1,897,500 $392 138
10
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
4
7
9 3
2012 2013 2014 2015
HAMMOCK OAKS 2015
HAMMOCK OAKS YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
10 8 6 4 2 0
SALES/ LIST PRICE
94% 91%
There is a 7.5-month supply of inventory. Given the same number of sales in each of the last two years, prices rose 5.6% in 2015 over 2014 (390/sq.ft. versus $370/sq.ft.). Three sales registered above $2 M in 2015 whereas none did in 2014.
8
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
8
6
8
4 2 0
2
2
2012 2013 2014 2015
JOURNEYS END 2015
JOURNEY’S END YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
2014 0 2015 0
MEDIAN PRICE
$0 $0
$0 $0
PRICE PER SQ FT
$0 $0
AVG DOM
0 0
SALES/ LIST PRICE
0% 0%
8
0.5 0
1
1
0
0
2012 2013 2014 2015
SNAPPER CREEK 2015
SNAPPER CREEK MEDIAN PRICE
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
1.5 1.0
There are two active listings in Journey’s End, but there have been no sales since December 2013. 9405 Old Cutler Lane is listed for $12.95 M and 9550 Journey’s End Road is listed for $9.999 M, down from $11.4 M.
YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
2.0
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 8 $4,217,377 $4,040,000 $524 188 2015 7 $4,159,286 $3,750,000 $567 329
SALES/ LIST PRICE
8
92% 91%
4
6
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
6
6
8
7
2
0 There is a 12-month supply currently. 10101 Lakeside set a record price at $8.0M 2012 2013 2014 2015 ($793/sq.ft.) in the neighborhood. However, 10101 Sabal Palm went under contract in late December and should close above $8 M in the 1st Quarter, setting a new record absolute price. Both are new construction estates. Sale prices ranged between $465 - $793/sq.ft.). GABLES BY THE SEA 2015
GABLES BY THE SEA YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 17 $1,917,809 $2,054,000 $501 93 2015 15 $2,165,000 $1,950,000 $537 114
SALES/ LIST PRICE
20
93% 91%
10
There is a 10-month supply of inventory. With slightly fewer sales in 2015, prices increased by 13% in 2015 over 2014 levels ($537/sq.ft. in 2015 versus $501/sq.ft. in 2014). 2015 prices ranged between $825,000 - $6,500,000, or, $248 - $839/sq.ft.
MEDIAN PRICE
15
17 17
15
5 0
2012 2013 2014 2015
SUNRISE HARBOUR 2015
SUNRISE HARBOUR YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
15
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 5 $3,791,000 $2,895,000 $714 594 2015 4 $3,312,500 $2,750,000 $626 216
SALES/ LIST PRICE
8
84% 92%
4
6 2
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
5
8
8
5
7
4
0 There is a 12-month supply of inventory, with one less sale in 2015 than in 2014. Excluding 2012 2013 2014 2015 a large sale in 2014 with more land than average for the neighborhood (6975 Sunrise Terr.), prices were up a nominal 1% in 2015 over 2014. 6939 Sunrise Drive sold for the highest value in 2015, at $6,000,000 and $939/sq.ft. HAMMOCK LAKES 2015
HAMMOCK LAKES YEAR SALES AVG PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
PRICE PER SQ FT
AVG DOM
2014 2 $1,950,000 $1,950,000 $338 261 2015 3 $3,950,000 $3,350,000 $519 235
SALES/ LIST PRICE
4
86% 92%
2
There is a 24-month supply based upon absorption in 2015, measured against 4 active listings. The average sale price was substantially higher in 2015 at $519/sq.ft.
SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS
4
3 1 0
2
2
3
2012 2013 2014 2015
11
7650 SW 59th Court, Miami, FL 33143
BEN MOSS ESTATE AGENT & MANAGING DIRECTOR, SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT DIVISION
About Ben Moss – Top 10 Realtor at ONE Sotheby’s in 2015 – Coral Gables/South Miami resident for 31 years – Launched ONE Sotheby’s Sports & Entertainment division in 2014 – Ben Moss Group sold $ 64,000,000 in 2015 – Member of Master Brokers Forum and the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing’s Million Dollar Guild – Real estate educator for the Miami Dolphins rookie class – 6 consecutive years – Fluent in English and Spanish
Relationships Ben’s goal in life is to build long-lasting relationships in every facet of his life that are built on a foundation of trust, service, and friendship.
Call Ben today at 305-793-4783 or email him at Ben@BenMossGroup.com Connect with Ben on Social Media @BenMossGroup
www.BenMossGroup.com