HIA Kitchens and Bathrooms Report 2022-23

HIA Kitchens & Bathrooms

Past Growth & Future Prospects

Housing Industry Association

Kitchens and Bathrooms Report

Past Growth and Future Prospects 2022/23

April 2023

HIA Economics

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OVERVIEW

How the pandemic has changed our Kitchens and Bathrooms

In this report, we look into the kitchens and bathrooms sector, which not only sheds light on what is happening within the sector itself, but also provides insight into the factors shaping the broader housing market and, indeed, the entire economy.

The results of a survey of renovation-focused builders across Australia show that, compared to pre-pandemic, people are demanding more bathrooms and better kitchens.

The pandemic has changed households’ relationship with their home. After so much time spent locked down and/or working from home, Australians are putting a higher value on their home environment, demanding more space and amenity.

Additional bathrooms were especially popular. With people spending more time at home, we have seen an increase in the average number of bathrooms per new home, up from 2.2 in 2019 to 2.6 in 2022.

Part of this increase in the number of bathrooms is also attributable to the shift of population away from apartments to larger detached homes, which typically have higher occupancy and more bathrooms.

Bathrooms were also being renovated sooner, with the average age of bathrooms being upgraded or replaced falling from around 17 years pre-pandemic to less than 14 years in 2022.

This dynamic is probably a short-term trend that will unwind over the course of the decade. Nonetheless, it has added to the large pool of renovation work currently underway.

There were changes in kitchen demand dynamics too. Even with a single kitchen still being sufficient for most homes, owner occupiers were improving their home environment with the purchase of higher-end kitchen finishes and appliances.

All of this is occurring in a context of a market that is continuing to make its way through a record volume of work accumulated during the pandemic – homes, kitchens, bathrooms and broader renovations. This is despite the rise in the cash rate slowing the volume of new work entering that pipeline.

The easing of materials constraints and the return of overseas workers are set to help Australia’s builders complete this significant pipeline of building work. What is waiting on the other side is more uncertain.

The RBA’s tightening cycle, combined with ballooning construction costs, will see new renovation work slowing over the next couple of years, but from a record high, and with ample renovation work still in the pipeline.

The renovations sector is expected to sustain elevated levels of activity going forward. Extreme weather events have resulted in the need for repairs, which can also catalyse decisions for broader renovations. The increasing costs associated with new home building, combined with the pandemic trend towards home improvement, will also continue to support demand for such renovations.

Economic backdrop

Belt and braces approach to crushing the housing market

Regardless of the effectiveness of their strategy to impede inflation, the RBA is determined to slay the inflation dragon even if this crushes home building activity in the process. They adopted a similar strategy after the GFC, causing a downturn in home building that required them to cut the cash rate again.

Market confidence will remain down beaten, until such time as the RBA signals that the rate tightening cycle is drawing to an end. The only upside to the RBA continuing to increase rates in 2023 is that it brings forward the date when they will need to cut rates to stimulate activity in the economy. This inevitably means that the industry’s history of boom/bust cycles is set to continue.

Several major economies around the world are on track for recession in 2023. This increases risks to economic growth locally, although Australia is expected to avoid recession. The Australian economy remains bullet proof, from everything other than domestic policy settings. Despite the similarity of the current cycle to those seen prior to the 1980’s and 1990’s recession, a technical recession in this cycle remains very unlikely. The key to avoiding either a technical or per capita recession, remains the ability of the Federal Government to restore the Budget to surplus. Embedded inflation is best addressed through fiscal policies, and not relying solely on an ever-higher cash rate. The goal of restoring the Budget is made easier by the very strong export performance, elevated demand for resources, low unemployment, and population growth. All of these indicators were evident at the end of 2022.

Beyond confidence in the new home market, there is one other lever that the government have at their disposal that could ease the adverse impact of this rate rising cycle on the economy, while still dampening inflation.

In the aftermath of the GFC financial market regulators embarked on a reform agenda which sought to ensure that Australia had an ‘unquestionably strong’ financial sector. These reforms progressively tightened prudential standards and these are now restricting the extent to which banks can lend to households purchasing homes. They have restricted the amount that banks can lend to households with a given income, and households’ access to financial products that provided flexibility such as interest-only lending. Reforms have also increased the costs to banks for home lending, especially to those with less than a 20 per cent deposit.

This tightening of lending standards occurred to address a problem, the existence of which was not evident. Mortgage delinquencies in Australia remained very close to zero through the GFC, the decade that followed, and the pandemic. Part of the reason for this is that as macro-prudential restrictions have been tightened it has become increasingly attractive for banks to lend to those who are well capitalised. This typically means it is preferable to lend to someone who already owns a home rather than a first home buyer. The ‘unquestionably strong’ financial sector has come at the expense of home ownership over the past decade. The adverse impact of this belt and braces approach to lending has been obscured by the decline in interest rates over the past decade but the sudden increase in the cash rate from May 2022 will draw attention to these exceptionally tight lending standards.

On the ground, there remains a very large volume of work to complete but the pool of work yet to commence will be exhausted quickly. This will see the labour shortages easing, aided by a return of skilled migration.

Multi-unit projects are sensitive to labour and material shortages given the longer planning and build times. This has seen projects delayed in 2022 and a low level of multi-unit commencements. This is likely to continue until there is greater certainty in the supply of labour and materials. Once this certainty returns, fundamentals point to strong underlying demand for multi-units – rising interest rates exacerbating existing affordability constraints in the detached market, rental shortages, and the return of overseas migrants, students and tourists. This should also see multi-units move out of cycle from detached starts.

Pressures on cost of house and land packages remains problematic. Constraints on the supply of greenfield blocks have added significantly to costs on the land side, while meeting increased energy efficiency and accessibility stringencies in the National Construction Code will add to costs as these come into effect. If reining in inflation delivers a hard landing for the housing industry, this environment will make it harder to reignite demand for housing.

This leads to a perverse outcome that will see new home building decline as migration recovers and there is an acute shortage of dwelling stock. It is because of this apparent mismatch between the growth in underlying demand for housing and falling construction of new housing supply that the bottom of this looming

downturn is not expected to reach the depths of the housing downturn in 2012 – the last time the RBA overshot the rate tightening cycle and induced a housing downturn.

Nationally, new house commencements are expected to continue to decline under the weight of interest rates, from their record high in 2021 to their lowest level in over a decade by 2024. Future rate cuts are not expected to produce a recovery in the detached market until 2025, while the multi-units market is expected to bounce back from recent supply constraints this year and continue strengthening over the forecast horizon

The Kitchen Industry

Background

Our estimates of work done on kitchens and bathrooms in new homes are based on a number of definitions and assumptions. We define a kitchen job as including only the kitchen-specific costs and exclude any costs attributable to items/structures that would be present in a room that was not a kitchen. We essentially assume that a kitchen job, either renovation or installation in a new home, starts with an empty room with electricity cables and plumbing to the wall.

As in previous editions of this report, we provide estimates of the ’notional demand’ for kitchen and bathroom renovations. This is a unique methodology which provides the only insight available in Australia regarding the potential for future renovations activity. The concept of notional demand for kitchen and bathroom renovations is based on the theory that kitchens and bathrooms in new homes have a finite useful life, and whether due to changing trends or wear and tear, will be replaced at some point in time. Research conducted by HIA Economics has, over time, developed reliable estimates of the lifespans of kitchens and bathrooms. By looking back at historic records of dwelling completions, we are able to estimate the number of dwellings where kitchens and bathrooms are reaching an age where the owners will be likely considering significant upgrades.

It is important to acknowledge the difference between notional demand and actual demand. The actual amount of kitchen and bathroom renovations is determined by a range of additional factors which can vary greatly from one period to another. Actual demand may, for example, be influenced by:

• Housing market conditions like dwelling prices and investor confidence;

• Policy settings like interest rates and fiscal stimulus;

• Labour market conditions like unemployment and wage growth; and

• Broader economic conditions that households are experiencing. Notional demand abstracts from these factors and focuses purely on the replacement age of kitchens and bathrooms, and the age of housing stock. This means the actual demand for kitchen and bathroom renovations will deviate from the notional demand.

When economic and other conditions are favourable, actual renovations work done tends to exceed notional demand. The opposite is true when challenging economic conditions prevail – renovations work done will tend to fall short of notional demand.

Renovation activity surged to record levels early in the pandemic on the back of low interest rates, the inability to travel overseas and more time spent at home. Renovations activity is likely to remain elevated, while the detached housing market declines. This is because renovations are an attractive alternative when rising interest rates and construction cost blowouts are making the new house market increasingly unaffordable. There is also a significant pipeline of repairs to complete, associated with recent extreme weather events. Typically, there is a strong correlation between the value of renovations undertaken and the age of Australia’s dwelling stock. These factors will see the number of renovations undertaken, continue to exceed notional demand

Past Growth and Future Prospects – New Home Kitchen Installations

The number of kitchens installed in new homes surged during the pandemic on the back of the home building boom. After a 24.0 per cent increase in 2020/21, new kitchen installations moderated back down by 3.1 per cent, still recording a significant figure of 207,800.

These numbers are not as high as those associated with the 2014-2018 home building boom. This is because the latter included a four-year long apartment boom combined with ‘merely’ strong detached housing numbers. The current boom includes just two years of unprecedently strong detached housing numbers, while apartment numbers disappointed.

And because apartments and detached houses tend to have the same number of kitchens as each other, the four-year apartment boom produced the bigger boom in new kitchen installations.

The current detached housing boom is expected to unwind steeply, under the weight of higher interest rates and construction cost blowouts, while multi-units construction is expected to pick up only modestly. New

kitchen installations are, consequently, also expected to moderate further, down by 9.9 per cent, 2.7 per cent and 1.5 per cent in the next three years to a trough of 179,600 kitchen installations in 2024/25. This is expected to be followed by a pickup of 3.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent to 196,200 kitchen installations in 2026/27.

The total value of new kitchen installations spiked in 2020/21, up by 76.4 per cent, and a further 1.8 per cent in 2021/22 to $7.8 billion, a new record high. This reflects the fact that owner-occupiers – who tend to purchase higher-end finishes and appliances – drove this pandemic boom, whereas investors drove the previous apartment boom.

This is expected to drop back in 2022/23, down by 27.4 per cent to a trough of $5.6 billion, before recovering over the subsequent four years to more than $7.5 billion in 2026/27. Even the trough this year is well above pre-pandemic levels

Past Growth and Future Prospects – Renovated Kitchen Installations

There are over 10 million private dwellings in Australia, each containing a kitchen. Each year new housing adds around 2 per cent to the existing housing stock. This housing stock is comprised of homes across a wide spectrum of ages. The age of a dwelling is an important determinant of whether owners are likely to undertake a substantive renovation, such as kitchen upgrade. Based on the age of the housing stock, we estimate the ‘notional demand’ for kitchen renovations each year. Kitchens are typically upgraded around the 15-to-20-year age mark.

Notional demand provides an estimate of the potential size of the kitchen renovation market in any particular year. The degree to which notional demand translates into actual renovations work done will depend on economic conditions at the time, including interest rates, the jobs market, home price growth and income developments.

It is estimated that there was notional demand for around 159,300 kitchen renovation jobs in 2021/22, which is an increase of 3.0 per cent on the previous year. This is forecast to increase by 0.7 per cent in 2022/23 to 160,440 and will continue upwards towards 173,000 by 2026/27.

The broader renovations sector is set to see $44.5 billion worth of activity in 2022/23, down by 4.5 per cent from the record high $46.6 billion seen in 2021/22. This is forecast to continue moderating to $41.6 billion by 2025/26, before a 0.6 per cent recovery to $41.9 billion in 2026/27.

While this is a moderation, it remains above the levels seen before the pandemic, and defiant of the much more significant declines expected in the detached housing sector. This is because affordability constraints on new housing – compounded by pandemic demands, cost blowouts, and now rising interest rates – are making renovations a more affordable, and therefore, more appealing alternative

NotionalDemandfor KitchenRenovations,Australia

The Bathroom Industry

Past Growth and Future Prospects – Bathrooms in New Homes

The number of bathrooms installed in new homes also spiked during the pandemic with the booming construction of new houses. The first two years of the pandemic saw increases of 26.0 per cent and 22.1 per cent to 542,600 new bathroom installations in 2021/22, a record high.

Unlike new kitchen installations, this spike is higher than during the apartment boom of 2014-2018 because the current boom is occurring in the detached market. Even with a depressed multi-units market, more bathrooms tend to be installed in detached houses, especially in recent years with people seeking more space and amenity in their home environment during the pandemic. In fact, builders surveyed in 2022 reported an average of 2.6 bathrooms in their new detached houses, compared to previous years where it was closer to 2.0. Three-bathroom detached houses were particularly popular this year, while one-bathroom detached houses were rare. This is why the spike in new bathrooms was higher, albeit shorter-lived, than during the previous boom.

Bathrooms installed in new homes are expected to moderate in 2022/23, down by 23.1 per cent to 417,200, before a further 2.2 per cent decline to a trough of 407,900 in 2023/24. This is then expected to remain around this trough in 2024/25, up by just 0.7 per cent. This is consistent with the trough in detached house building, pushed down by higher interest rates and construction cost blowouts. New bathroom installations are subsequently expected to recover with the rest of the detached market, up by 6.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent to 446,100 new bathroom installations by 2026/27.

The value of new bathrooms installations also spiked in 2021/22, albeit more modestly than the number of bathrooms, up by a single year of 24.2 per cent to $6.5 billion. The more modest increase, following a decline in 2020/21 could be explained by a number of factors, such as consumers choosing lower-end products and finishes in the face of supply chain constraints restricting the number of products available.

The value of new bathrooms installations is expected to moderate down by 9.0 per cent and 2.8 per cent in the coming two years to a trough under $5.8 billion in 2023/24, mounting a more significant recovery in 2025/26, exceeding $7.1 billion by 2026/27. This is consistent with the expected recovery of the detached market, and ongoing strengthening of the multi-units market.

Past Growth and Future Prospects – Renovated Bathroom Installations

Notional demand for bathroom renovations work takes into account the number of dwellings entering certain age groups. It also takes into account any changes in the typical number of bathrooms per home, as gauged by responses to our kitchen and bathroom survey.

It is estimated that there was notional demand for around 241,160 bathroom renovation jobs in 2021/22, up by 2.9 per cent from the previous year. This is forecast to increase by 0.7 per cent in 2022/23 to 242,740, and continue upwards, reaching 258,590 by 2026/27.

As with kitchens, notional demand for bathroom renovations work is only an estimate of the number of bathrooms likely to require renovation in a particular year. Stronger economic conditions have a tendency to see actual renovations activity exceed notional demand. Conversely, less optimal economic conditions tend to see actual renovations fall short of notional demand.

Since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, households have diverted funds that would have been spent on overseas holidays, entertainment and dining out, to renovating their homes. As a result, it is likely that actual demand for bathroom renovations has exceeded notional demand for renovations

NotionalDemandfor BathroomRenovations,Australia

The Kitchen and Bathroom Industries: Activities, Attitudes, and Averages

The HIA Kitchens & Bathrooms Report includes the results of a survey which was conducted in March 2023. This year, a total of 253 responses were received from those operating in the industry in all areas of Australia. The largest number of survey responses were received from New South Wales (80), followed by Victoria (67), Queensland (42), South Australia (21) and Western Australia (20). Fewer responses came from Tasmania (12) and Australian Capital Territory (7). The least number of responses originated from the Northern Territory (4).

The full breakdown of responses by business activity can be found in Appendix C

The Kitchen Industry

A total of 18, 622 kitchen jobs were captured by the latest kitchens and bathrooms survey based on activity during 2022. This compares with the 9,620 jobs captured in the 2022 survey

How many kitchen jobs did you complete in calendar year 2022?

On balance, respondents remain optimistic with the vast majority (84 per cent) expected they would complete at least the same amount, if not more work

Comparedwith2022,doyouexpecttocompletemore,lessorthesame amountofworkthisyear?

The largest share of respondents (53 per cent) reported that the vast majority (more than 88 per cent) of their jobs involved the installation of a kitchen in a new home. For 12 per cent of respondents, kitchen installations in new homes represented a very small share (less than 10 per cent) of their jobs

Whatproportionofjobsyouworkedoninvolvedinstallationofakitchenina newhome?

During 2022, the average value of a kitchen installed in a new home was $36,088 which is 29 per cent higher than in 2021. Kitchens in new homes have the highest value in the Western Australia ($62,200) and the lowest in Tasmania ($25,417)

What is the average dollar value of a kitchen installed in a new home?

Source: HIA Economics

Whatistheaveragedollarvalueofakitcheninstalledinanewhome?

The majority of respondents (68 per cent) estimated the kitchens they replaced have an average age of between 11 and 20 years

Wewouldliketoknowhowfrequentlyhomeownersupgradetheirkitchens. Whatisyourestimateoftheaverageageofthekitchenyoureplaceor modify?

The majority of kitchen renovation jobs (75 per cent) are completed as a full kitchen replacement as part of a broader renovation project.

Ofthekitchenjobsinexistinghomes(renovationsetc),whatbestdescribes themostcommontypeofjob?

A full kitchen replacement where there are no other concurrent renovations occurring in the house

A full kitchen replacement where the kitchen renovation is one part of a broader renovation project

Source: HIA Economics

The majority of kitchen renovation jobs (58 per cent) involve the footprint of the kitchen being enlarged

Withregardstothesizeofkitchensyouhaverenovatedwhichof thefollowingbestdescribesyourtypicaljob:

Source: HIA Economics

Enlarge the area of the kitchen 58%

The average value of a kitchen renovation completed during 2022 was $35,279 which represented an increase of 21 per cent compared with 2021.

What is the average dollar value of a kitchen you installed in a renovation?

Whatistheaveragedollarvalueofakitchenyouinstalledinarenovation?

The average value of components of a new kitchen completed during 2022 has increased since 2021 with Cabinetry (including cupboards, doors, drawers, shelving etc) and plumbing fit out having the largest increases. Components showing the smallest increase was tapware

Cabinetry (including cupboards, doors, drawers, shelving etc)

Bench tops

Built in appliances (cook-top, oven, coffee machine,…

Labour

Floor coverings

Plumbing fit out

Other

Wall finishes including splash backs

Electrical fit out

Hardware fittings, door handles etc

Lighting

2022 2021

Source: HIA Economics

Sinks

Tapware

Pleaseprovideanestimateoftheaveragevalueofthefollowingkitchen components

The Bathroom Industry

Of the bathroom jobs captured in the survey, New South Wales accounted for the largest number during 2022

How many bathroom jobs did you complete in calendar year 2022?

As with respondents in the kitchen industry, those in the bathroom industry were also remained optimistic about the year’s prospects at the time of completing the survey. The vast majority (84 per cent) expected they would complete at least the same amount if not more work, this year compared to last year

Comparedwith2022,doyouexpecttocompletemore,lessorthesame amountofworkin2023?

The largest share of respondents (60 per cent) had their work concentrated in new home bathroom installations. The next largest shares (19 per cent combined) had around half their work involving new home bathroom installations

WhatproportionofjobsyoucompletedinvolvedinstallationofaBathroomina newhome?

The average value of a bathroom installed in a new home was $22,019 during 2022 which is, 16 per cent more than in 2021. The average value was highest in the Australian Capital Territory ($32,667) and lowest in the Tasmania ($18,333)

What is the average dollar value of a bathroom installed in a new home?

More than two thirds of respondents estimated the bathrooms they replaced have an average age of between 11 and 25 years.

Wewouldliketoknowhowfrequentlyhomeownersupgradetheirbathrooms. Whatisyourestimateoftheaverageageofthebathroomyoureplaceor alter?

The majority of respondents (73 per cent) who performed bathroom renovations reported that their typical job involved no change to the size of the existing bathroom’s floor space

Withregardtothesizeofbathroomsyouhaverenovated,whichofthe followingbestdescribesyourtypicaljob:

The average value of a bathroom renovation increased by 25 per cent during 2022 to $26,747. The value of work was typically highest in Australian Capital Territory ($37,000) and lowest in the Queensland ($23,583).

What is the average dollar value of a bathroom installed in a renovation?

2021 2022

Australian Capital Territory $29,000 $37,000

Victoria $22,381 $28,529

Western Australia $15,667 $27,500

Tasmania $21,667 $27,286

New South Wales $22,392 $26,400

South Australia $14,375 $23,833

Queensland $20,382 $23,583

Northern Territory -Grand Average $21,484 $26,747

Whatistheaveragedollarvalueofabathroominstalledinarenovation?

Source: HIA Economics

The single most common configuration for new detached houses is for two bathrooms to be installed (35 per cent of the total). Some 37 per cent of new detached houses have 3 or more bathrooms.

Whatproportionofyournewdetacheddwellingshave:

The average value of components of a new bathroom completed during 2022 has increased since 2021, with labour and tiling components having the largest increases. Components showing the smallest increase were finishes and fixtures and sinks

Pleaseprovideanestimateoftheaveragevalueofthefollowingbathroom components:

Finishes and fixtures (towel rails, soap holders etc)

StatebyStateKitchenandBathroomOutlook

NEW SOUTH WALES

Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in New South Wales picked up with the boom in demand for new housing, albeit a more modest performance than during the 2014-2018 boom. While detached house commencements reached a new peak in 2021, it wasn’t as sustained as the previous boom in detached housing. Multi-unit commencements in New South Wales during the pandemic were also a long way down from their previous heights.

This explains the more modest pick-up in kitchen installations in new houses in New South Wales, up by 19.4 per cent in 2020/21, before moderating down by 6.6 per cent in 2021/22 to 55,900 kitchens. This is forecast to moderate down further by 3.7 per cent in 2022/23, reaching a trough of 50,900 in 2024/25 and 2025/26, before picking up again.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in New South Wales jumped by 74.9 per cent in 2020/21 to $2.4 billion and remained elevated at $2.3 billion in 2021/22. This highlights that the market is being driven by owner-occupiers. This is expected to fall back down by 24.1 per cent in 2022/23 to a trough of less than $1.8 billion, before recovering thereafter.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in New South Wales was more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in New South Wales surged by 21.4 per cent and 17.7 per cent in the two years to 2021/22, to a peak of 146,000 – almost has high as the 155,600 peak in 2016/17. This is expected to fall back down by 17.8 per cent to 119,900 in 2022/23, reaching a trough of 116,500 in 2024/25, before picking up again.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in New South Wales also increased by 19.3 per cent in 2021/22 to $1.9 billion and is expected to moderate back to a trough of $1.8 billion in 2024/25, before mounting a recovery.

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in New South Wales over the next few years.

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 1.5 per cent in 2021/22 to 39,040. This is forecast to stay around this level over the next couple of years before slowly increasing and reaching 43,000 by 2026/27.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in New South Wales rose by 1.2 per cent in 2021/22 to 60,300 and is expected to remain around 60,000 over the next few years before climbing to 64,250 in 2026/27.

• Total renovations investment in New South Wales increased by 23.5 per cent in 2020/21 and a further 8.9 per cent in 2021/22 to a $17.0 billion peak. It is expected to moderate over the coming years to a trough of $15.1 billion in 2025/26, before ticking back up in 2026/27 to $15.4 billion

NotionalDemandfor KitchenandBathroomRenovations,NewSouthWales

VICTORIA

Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in Victoria picked up with the boom in demand for new housing, with the surge in demand for detached housing temporarily offsetting the decline in multi-units. The installation of kitchens in new housing was, consequently, comparable to the 2014-2018 boom, even if not as prolonged.

Kitchen installations in new houses in Victoria jumped by 13.8 per cent and 0.4 per cent in the two years to 2021/22, reaching 67,200. This is expected to decline by 14.1 per cent in 2022/23, reaching a trough of 51,000 by 2024/25 before picking up again.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in Victoria jumped by 64.9 per cent in 2020/21 and 9.1 per cent in 2021/22 to a peak of almost $2.7 billion. This highlights that the market is being driven by owneroccupiers. This is expected to fall back down by 30.5 per cent in 2022/23 to a trough of $1.9 billion, before recovering thereafter.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in Victoria was more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in Victoria surged, with an increase of 15.7 per cent and 26.5 per cent in the two years to 2021/22 to 175,500 – even higher than the 147,900 peak seen in 2017/18. This is expected to fall back down by 26.7 per cent to 128,600 in 2022/23, reaching a trough of 116,700 in 2024/25, before picking up again.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in Victoria also increased by 33.1 per cent in 2021/22 to $2.2 billion and is expected to moderate back to a trough of less than $1.8 billion in 2024/25, before mounting a recovery

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in Victoria over the next few years

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 5.2 per cent in 2021/22 to 44,790. This is forecast to continue strengthening, reaching 51,630 by 2026/27.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in Victoria rose by 4.9 per cent in 2021/22 to 66,710, and is expected to continue strengthening, reaching 76,630 by 2026/27.

• Total renovations investment in Victoria increased by 14.3 per cent in 2021/22, to an $11.0 billion peak. It is expected to moderate over the coming years, back down to $10.2 billion by 2026/27

Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in Queensland picked up with the boom in demand for new housing, albeit a more modest performance than during the previous boom. While detached house commencements reached an impressive peak in 2021, multi-unit commencements in Queensland during the pandemic were a long way down from their previous heights.

This explains the more modest pick-up in kitchen installations in new houses in Queensland, up by 30.5 per cent in 2020/21, before moderating down by 3.0 per cent in 2021/22 to 39,200 kitchens. This is forecast to moderate down further by 0.9 per cent in 2022/23, reaching a trough of 37,000 in 2023/24, before picking up again.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in Queensland jumped by 80.9 per cent in 2020/21 to a peak of $1.3 billion, where it remained in 2021/22. This highlights that the market is being driven by owneroccupiers. This is expected to fall back down by 19.9 per cent in 2022/23 to a trough of less than $1.1 billion, before recovering thereafter.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in Queensland was more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in Queensland surged by 32.7 per cent and 22.2 per cent in the two years to 2021/22, to a peak of 102,400 – even higher than the 95,400 peak in 2015/16. This is expected to fall back down by 15.5 per cent and 4.4 per cent to an 82,800 trough in 2023/24, before picking up again.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in Queensland also increased by 23.1 per cent in 2021/22 to $1.1 billion, where it is expected to remain in 2022/23 and 2024/25, before continuing upwards, towards $1.4 billion in 2026/27

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in Queensland over the next few years.

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 1.8 per cent in 2021/22 to 36,540. This is forecast to moderate over the coming years to a trough of 35,750 in 2024/25 before bouncing back, reaching 37,000 by 2026/27.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in Queensland rose by 1.9 per cent in 2021/22 to 55,600 and is expected to moderate over the coming years to a trough of 54,390 by 2024/25 before climbing back to 55,760 in 2026/27.

• Total renovations investment in Queensland increased by 19.4 per cent and 3.3 per cent in the two years to 2021/22, reaching a $10.7 billion peak. It is expected to moderate over the coming years, back below $8.8 billion by 2025/26

NotionalDemandfor KitchenandBathroomRenovations,Queensland

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in South Australia surged with the boom in demand for new housing. Detached house commencements reached new highs in 2021, more than offsetting the softer conditions in the multi-units sector.

This explains the 25.7 per cent and 5.3 per cent increases in kitchen installations in new houses in South Australia over the two years to 2021/22, reaching a high of 14,200 kitchens. This is forecast to moderate down over the coming years, to a trough of 10,500 kitchens in 2024/25, before picking up again.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in South Australia jumped by 77.2 per cent in 2020/21 and 11.0 per cent in 2021/22 to a peak of $415 million. This highlights that the market is being driven by owneroccupiers. This is expected to fall back down by 29.3 per cent in 2022/23 to $293 million, sustaining this level in 2023/24, before mounting a more solid recovery thereafter.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in South Australia was even more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in South Australia surged by 27.8 per cent and 32.6 per cent in the two years to 2021/22, to a peak of 37,200 – a new high. This is expected to fall back down by 26.6 per cent to 27,300 in 2022/23, reaching a trough of 23,700 in 2023/24, before picking up again.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in South Australia also increased by 35.5 per cent in 2021/22 to $347 million and is expected to moderate back to a trough of $279 million in 2023/24, before mounting a recovery

NumberofKitchensInstalledinNewHomes,SouthAustralia,2007to2027

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in South Australia over the next few years

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 3.1 per cent in 2021/22 to 10,360. This is forecast to continue strengthening in the coming years, reaching 10,740 by 2026/27.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in South Australia rose by 3.1 per cent in 2021/22 to 15,590 and is expected to continue strengthening in the coming years, reaching 16,210 by 2026/27.

• Total renovations investment in South Australia increased by 7.0 per cent in 2020/21 and a further 7.3 per cent in 2021/22 to a $2.8 billion peak. It is expected to moderate over the coming years, back down to $2.3 billion by 2025/26

NotionalDemandfor KitchenandBathroomRenovations,SouthAustralia

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in Western Australia surged with the boom in demand for new housing, albeit not as much, or for as long, as was seen during Western Australia’s mining boom. While the 2021 peak in detached house commencements was almost as impressive as the mining boom, it wasn’t as sustained. Multi-unit commencements in Western Australia during the pandemic were also a long way down from their previous heights.

Nonetheless, kitchen installations in new houses in Western Australia still jumped by 73.2 per cent in 2020/21 to a peak of 23,500, before moderating back to a still elevated 21,300 in 2021/22. A 25.1 per cent decline is expected in 2022/23 to 16,000, marking the trough before a sustained recovery, reaching 24,000 by 2026/27.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in Western Australia more than doubled (+120 per cent) in 2020/21 to a peak of $730 million, before moderating back down to still elevated $650 million in 2021/22. This highlights that the market is being driven by owner-occupiers. A decline of 37.4 per cent is expected in 2022/23, marking a trough of $407 million, before activity recovers strongly, exceeding $800 million by 2025/26.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in Western Australia was even more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in Western Australia surged by 76.0 per cent and 14.1 per cent in the two years to 2021/22, to a peak of 55,700 – almost has high as the 63,800 peak in 2014/15. This is expected to fall back down by 36.1 per cent to a trough of 35,600 in 2022/23, before picking up strongly, exceeding 50,000 again by 2025/26.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in Western Australia increased more modestly, up by 10.8 per cent and 8.6 per cent in the two years to 2021/22 to $544 million. This is expected to moderate back to a trough of $427 million in 2022/23 before recovering strongly, exceeding $800 million again by 2025/26

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in Western Australia over the next few years.

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 2.6 per cent in 2021/22 to 21,740. This is forecast to stay around this level in 2022/23, before strengthening over the subsequent years, reaching 22,760 by 2026/27.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in Western Australia rose by 3.0 per cent in 2021/22 to 32,620, and is expected to climb in the coming years, reaching 34,060 by 2026/27.

• Total renovations investment in Western Australia fell by 4.2 per cent in 2021/22 to $3.2 billion and is expected to fall by a further 4.1 per cent in 2022/23 to a trough of less than $3.1 billion, before recovering to $3.4 billion by 2026/27

NotionalDemandfor KitchenandBathroomRenovations,WesternAustralia

TASMANIA

Kitchens and Bathroom Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in Tasmania jumped from already-elevated levels, on the back of the boom in demand for new housing. Detached house commencements reached a new peak in 2021, above the boom that was already occurring before the pandemic. This explains the jump in kitchen installations in new houses in Tasmania, up by 32.2 per cent in 2020/21 to a peak of 4,000, before moderating, down by 12.7 per cent to a still elevated 3,500 in 2021/22. This is expected to continue downwards to a trough of 2,200 in 2024/25, before picking up again.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in Tasmania jumped by 85.3 per cent in 2020/21 to $123 million and remained elevated at $116 million in 2021/22. This highlights that the market is being driven by owner-occupiers. This is expected to fall back down by 34.6 per cent in 2022/23 to a trough of $76 million, before recovering back to almost $100 million by 2026/27.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in Tasmania was even more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in Tasmania surged by 34.4 per cent and 10.0 per cent in the two years to 2021/22, to a peak of 9,200 – a new high. This is expected to fall back down by 33.9 per cent to 6,100 in 2022/23, continuing to a trough of 5,100 by 2024/25, before picking up again.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in Tasmania also increased by 15.0 per cent in 2021/22 to $97 million but is expected to moderate back to a trough of $73.2 million in 2024/25, before mounting a recovery

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in Tasmania over the next few years

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 3.7 per cent in 2021/22 to 2,520. This is forecast to stay around this level over the next few years before jumping to 2,600 by 2026/27.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in Tasmania rose by 3.5 per cent in 2021/22 to 3,830 and is expected to remain around these levels over the next few years before climbing to 3,950 in 2026/27.

• Total renovations investment in Tasmania increased by 7.6 per cent in 2020/21 and a further 3.2 per cent in 2021/22 to a $775 million peak. It is expected to sit around $740 million for a few years before climbing to $780 million by 2026/27

NORTHERN TERRITORY

Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in the Northern Territory picked up with the boom in demand for new housing, albeit far below the performance of the previous mining boom. New home commencements during the pandemic were still a long way down from their mining boom heights in the Northern Territory, especially for multi-units.

This explains the modest pick-up in kitchen installations in new houses in the Northern Territory, up by 72.3 per cent to 920 in 2020/21, but back down to 530 in 2021/22. This is forecast to pick up more strongly in the coming years, reaching 1,640 by 2026/27.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in the Northern Territory also jumped, more than doubling (+134 per cent) to $33 million in 2020/21. This highlights that the market was driven by owner-occupiers, before returning to $20 million in 2021/22. This is expected to recover again, exceeding $40 million by 2025/26.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in the Northern Territory was more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in the Northern Territory surged by 75.2 per cent in 2020/21 to 1,900 before falling back to 1,370 in 2021/22. A strong recovery is expected, reaching 3,730 by 2026/27.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in the Northern Territory also increased by 17.7 per cent in 2020/21 to a peak of $22.9 million, before moderating to $16.9 million in 2021/22. A recovery to $40 million is expected by 2025/26

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in the Northern Territory over the next few years

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 2.8 per cent in 2021/22 to 1,350. This is forecast to climb steadily, exceeding 1,430 by 2025/26.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in the Northern Territory rose by 2.8 per cent in 2021/22 to 2,070, and is expected to continue upwards, exceeding 2,140 by 2024/25 and remaining steady for a few years.

• Total renovations investment in the Northern Territory increased by 19.6 per cent in 2020/21 to a peak of $445 million, before moderating back to $361 million in 2021/22. It is expected to recover some of those losses in 2022/23, up by 12.0 per cent to $404 million, before continuing its downward path to $319 million by 2026/27

NotionalDemandfor KitchenandBathroomRenovations,NorthernTerritory

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY

Kitchens and Bathrooms Installations in New Homes

The number of kitchens installed in new homes in the Australian Capital Territory picked up with the jump in demand for new housing, albeit not to an unprecedented degree. Home building activity in the Australian Capital Territory had been elevated for a number of years and the pandemic sustained that activity – in the detached and multi-unit sectors – for a while longer.

This explains the 12.0 per cent pick-up in kitchen installations in new houses in the Australian Capital Territory in 2021/22, to 5,800, before it is expected to moderate to a still elevated 5,100 in 2022/23. These levels are expected to be sustained over the forecast horizon.

The value of kitchen installations in new houses in the Australian Capital Territory jumped by 49.4 per cent in 2020/21 and 15.6 per cent in 2021/22 to a peak of $216 million. This highlights that the market is being driven by owner-occupiers. It is expected to moderate back to $160 million in 2022/23, before recovering and closing in on $200 million by 2025/26.

The surge in the number of bathrooms installed in new homes in the Australian Capital Territory was more significant, given homes tend to have at least as many, if not more, bathrooms as kitchens. This is especially so during a detached housing boom – and also during a pandemic when extra bathrooms are in high demand – but is also true of multi-units.

Bathrooms installations in new houses in the Australian Capital Territory surged by 41.1 per cent in 2021/22 to a peak of 15,300 – a new high. This is expected to fall back down by 25.9 per cent to 11,300 in 2022/23, recovering only modestly to 11,600 by 2025/26.

The value of bathroom installations in new houses in the Australian Capital Territory also increased by 41.1 per cent in 2021/22 to $180 million and is expected to moderate back to a trough of $163 million in 2024/25, before mounting a recovery.

Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations

The chart below illustrates the likely outlook for notional demand relating to kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs in the Australian Capital Territory over the next few years

• Notional demand for kitchen renovations increased by 8.6 per cent in 2021/22 to 2,970. This is forecast to continue increasing strongly over the forecast horizon, exceeding 3,800 by 2026/27.

• Notional demand for bathroom renovations in New South Wales rose by 7.4 per cent in 2021/22 to 4,450 and is expected to continue increasing strongly over the forecast horizon, approaching 5,600 by 2026/27.

• Total renovations investment in the Australian Capital Territory increased by 17.4 per cent in 2020/21 to a peak of $709 million, before moderating back to $608 million in 2021/22. Some of these losses are expected to be recovered in 2022/23, up by 11.2 per cent to $676 million, remaining around these levels over the forecast horizon

AustralianCapital

APPENDIX A: Methodology Underlying Kitchen and Bathroom Forecasts

HIA Economics regularly publishes forecasts of industry activity and within this report we apply these forecasts specifically to the kitchens and bathrooms industry. Compiling kitchen and bathroom forecasts is a more complex task than our regular forecasts as there is no definitive record of the number and value of installed kitchens and bathrooms. Therefore there is no definitive point of reference on which to base our forecasts. This appendix describes how we arrive at our forecasts for activity in the kitchens and bathrooms industry.

The Kitchens and Bathrooms Report forecasts are comprised of four components:

• Number of kitchens and bathrooms installed in new homes

• Number of new kitchens and bathrooms installed in established homes (renovations)

• Value of kitchens and bathrooms installed in new homes

• Value of new kitchens and bathrooms installed in established homes (renovations)

Following a thorough review of our processes in 2010/11 we were satisfied with the integrity of the forecast methodology used in forecasting kitchens and bathrooms work in new homes. However, deteriorating data quality has meant that we are no longer able to provide forecasts of the number and value of kitchen and bathroom renovation jobs. As of the 2011/12 edition of the Kitchens and Bathrooms Report we introduced the concept of ‘notional demand’ for renovations.

Forecasts for New Homes

Estimating the number of kitchens and bathrooms installed in new homes each year is a relatively simple matter. Building activity statistics compiled and published quarterly by the ABS show, with reasonable accuracy, the number of dwellings commenced and completed. As each dwelling almost certainly has a kitchen, and as very few have more than one, the number of dwellings started or finished each year provides a very good estimate of the number of kitchens installed.

Unlike the installation of kitchens in new homes, the number of bathrooms in each new home can vary. From ABS data, it is estimated that throughout the 1970s and most of the 1980s, the number of multiple bathroom homes was small. In 1985/86 it is estimated that for every 100 new homes, 120 bathrooms were installed. More recently, improvements in disposable income, rising living standards and an increase in the number of two storey dwellings have boosted the average. Results from HIA’s annual Kitchens and Bathrooms Survey (a survey of HIA members) are used to inform an estimate of the average number of bathrooms per dwelling in homes constructed during the year.

For this report we use housing starts, rather than completions, for no other reason than it is customary in the industry to focus more on starts than completions. Whichever measure is used there will be some overlap. Some homes started in the December quarter of 2011, for example, will not have had their kitchens installed until the March quarter of 2012; and some homes completed in the March quarter of 2012 will have had their kitchens installed in the December quarter of 2011. However, the leads and lags are assumed to be only a matter of a few months.

Survey results are also used to estimate the average value of kitchen and bathroom installations in new homes. The value of work done is reported in chain volume measures whereas prior to the 2011/12 report these had been reported in nominal terms. This change was made to provide a better indication of the change in the amount of work being done by removing the impact of changes in input prices. As a consequence of these changes, the figures reporting the aggregate value of work done are not directly comparable with editions prior to 2011/12.

Renovations

Estimating the number and value of kitchen and bathroom activity within the renovations market is not as straight forward as for the new home sector. There are a number of reasons for this, firstly because renovations activity is poorly recorded by official data sources. Furthermore, the level of detail required to determine whether renovation work included work on kitchens or bathrooms is not collected at all. Second, the scale of renovation jobs is very broad - for example it could be a relatively minor project of replacing a kitchen bench top or a major project requiring structural changes to the home.

Owing to the highly variable scale of renovation projects, accurately measuring the average value of a renovated kitchen or bathroom is very difficult. The results of HIA’s annual Kitchen and Bathroom survey enable us to make estimates of the average values of kitchens and bathrooms replaced during renovations, excluding any structural alterations to the dwelling.

In the 2011/12 edition of the report we introduced the concept of ‘notional demand’ for renovations to provide the best available indicator of the potential market size for kitchen and bathroom renovations.

The concept of notional demand for kitchen and bathroom renovations is based on the theory that kitchens and bathrooms in new homes have a finite useful life, whether due to changing trends or wear and tear. They will be replaced at some point in time. Over more than a decade of member surveys, the HIA Economics has developed reliable estimates of the lifespans of kitchens and bathrooms. By looking back at historic records of dwelling completions, we are able to estimate the number of dwellings where kitchens and bathrooms are likely to be reaching an age where the homeowners will be considering upgrades.

It should be noted that the notional demand model only considers a home’s first kitchen or bathroom replacement. Kitchens and bathrooms are likely to be renovated multiple times during the life of a home so it is likely that notional demand provides a conservative estimate of potential renovations activity

Notional demand should not be confused with actual demand. Actual demand is determined by a range of additional factors which can vary greatly from one period to another. These may include dwelling prices, interest rates, investor confidence, policy settings, and employment opportunities. Notional demand abstracts from these factors and focuses purely on the replacement age of kitchens and bathrooms and the age of housing stock.

HIA’s regular Renovations Forecast, encompassing all types of renovations work, is premised on actual demand and discussion of the outlook for all renovation activity has been included in the report. While this does not specifically isolate activity on kitchen and bathroom renovations, the economic drivers underpinning these forecasts are equally applicable to the kitchen and bathroom subsector of the industry.

APPENDIX B: Kitchen and Bathroom Forecasts by state

Value($m)ofKitchensInstalled

NewHomes,NewSouthWales,2007to2027

Value($m)

HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Value($m)ofKitchensInstalledinNewHomes,SouthAustralia,2007to2027

Value($m)ofBathroomsInstalledinNewHomes,SouthAustralia,2007to2027

($m)of

InstalledinNewHomes,WesternAustralia,2007to2027

HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Value($m)ofBathroomsInstalledinNewHomes,WesternAustralia,2007to2027

Value($m)ofKitchensInstalledinNewHomes,Tasmania,2007to2027

Value($m)ofBathroomsInstalledinNewHomes,Tasmania,2007to2027

HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Value($m)ofKitchensInstalledinNewHomes,NorthernTerritory,2007to2027

Value($m)ofBathroomsInstalledinNewHomes,NorthernTerritory,2007to2027

Value($m)ofKitchensInstalledinNewHomes,AustralianCapitalTerritory,2007to2027

HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Value($m)ofBathroomsInstalledinNewHomes,AustralianCapitalTerritory,2007to2027

Value($m)ofKitchensInstalledinNewHomes,Australia,2007to2027

HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

APPENDIX C: Additional information regarding survey respondents

Inwhatstateorterritorydoyoudothemajorityofyourwork?

Whatbestdescribesthemainactivitiesofyourbusiness?

Whichofthefollowingbestdescribeswhatyoudo?-Kitchens

Whichofthefollowingbestdescribeswhatyoudo?-Bathrooms

Whichofthefollowingbestdescribeswhatyoudo?-Kitchens

Whichofthefollowingbestdescribeswhatyoudo?-General

What proportion of renovation jobs you undertook in calendar year 2022 involved the replacement of a:

What is the average dollar value of a

What is the average dollar value of a bathroom installed in a new home?

New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Australian Capital Territory

What is the average dollar value of a bathroom installed in a renovation?

New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania Northern Territory Australian Capital Territory