QUICK RETURNING STAYERS
BY XPERTBET
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QUICK RETURNING STAYERS Although some racehorses are at their best when they have been off the track for a lengthy period, generally speaking if a horse is returned to the track quickly after its previous outing, then it’s worth serious consideration. If we look at the stats from the last four seasons, we can see how there is a gradual decline in strike-rate (and gradual increase in level stakes loss) as the lay-off time increases…. LAY-OFF TIME WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Last ran <4 days ago 612 5088 12.03 -335.84 -6.60 Last ran 4-7 days ago 2152 21083 10.21 -5156.35 -24.46 Last ran 8-15 days ago 5455 58333 9.35 -17460.54 -29.93 Last ran 16-31 days ago 5630 60885 9.25 -17775.26 -29.19 Last ran 32-47 days ago 1551 18198 8.52 -4847.79 -26.64 Last ran 48-79 days ago 923 11683 7.90 -3301.37 -28.26 Last ran 80-111 days ago 314 4705 6.67 -1402.06 -29.80 Last ran 112-223 days ago 901 12669 7.11 -4016.91 -31.71 Last ran 224-547 days ago 460 7728 5.95 -3135.28 -40.57 Last ran 548+ days ago 40 1087 3.68 -471.14 -43.34 As can be seen, a gradual but definite drop in performance the longer a horse is away from the racetrack. For this system we are going to concentrate only on those runners which had reappeared within seven days of their last outing. Over the last four seasons the results from backing all horses brought back out within a week of their last run are…. 3 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 2001 639 6603 9.68 -1944.36 -29.45 2002 665 6376 10.43 -1420.63 -22.28 2003 657 6203 10.59 -1092.89 -17.62 2004 803 6989 11.49 -1034.32 -14.80 TOTAL 2764 26171 10.56 -5492.20 -20.99 Next we’ll examine the results of the starting odds of these runners – obviously the inclusion of those horses which were sent off at huge odds is going to skew the figures… SP WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% <4/1 1164 3842 30.30 -153.70 -4.00 4/1 to 11/2 548 3290 16.66 -191.00 -5.81 6/1 to 15/2 325 2754 11.80 -282.00 -10.24 8/1 to 9/1 196 2166 9.05 -336.50 -15.54 10/1 to 11/1 122 1915 6.37 -546.00 -28.51 12/1 to 14/1 189 3182 5.94 -561.00 -17.63 16/1 to 18/1 76 1649 4.61 -355.00 -21.53 20/1 to 22/1 57 1813 3.14 -612.00 -33.76 25/1 to 28/1 40 1556 2.57 -510.00 -32.78 33/1 to 40/1 30 1867 1.61 -805.00 -43.12 50/1 and more 17 2137 0.80 -1140.00 -53.35 The <4/1 price band gives us a 30.30% strike rate with a level stakes loss of only 4%, therefore it is this price range we will consider. The rundown of these runners for the four year period under scrutiny is as follows… YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 2001 267 876 30.48 -16.36 -1.87 2002 278 911 30.52 -31.13 -3.42 2003 280 928 30.17 -51.39 -5.54 2004 339 1127 30.08 -54.82 -4.86 TOTAL 1164 3742 30.30 -153.70 -4.00
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A very consistent strike rate and only a small level stakes loss each year – not bad at all considering the large sample size. Next we’ll look at how these runners perform over different distances…. DISTANCE WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 5 - <6 furlongs 227 725 31.31 -2.20 -0.30 6 - <7 furlongs 184 653 28.18 -54.71 -8.38 7 - <8 furlongs 150 528 28.41 -26.09 -4.94 8 - <9 furlongs 159 584 27.23 -78.95 -13.52 9 - <10 furlongs 72 235 30.64 -18.67 -7.94 10 - <11.5 furlongs 108 377 28.65 -13.46 -3.57 11.5 - <12.5 furlongs 142 431 32.95 -20.64 -4.79 12.5 - <13.5 furlongs 21 41 51.22 20.46 49.90 13.5 - <14.5 furlongs 33 91 36.26 13.93 15.31 14.5 - <16 furlongs 16 34 47.06 11.26 33.12 16 - <17 furlongs 44 123 35.77 11.07 9.00 17 furlongs and more 8 20 40.00 4.30 21.50 Undoubtedly a clear cut-off point there at the 12.5 furlong mark. For some reason, backing horses which are brought out again within 7 days of their last race and which are sent off at odds of less than 4/1, lose you money at every distance below 12.5 furlongs yet win you money at this trip or longer. In fact, sticking to these three simple rules, this system has made a profit in nine of the last ten seasons… YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1995 29 77 37.66 +13.31 +17.29 1996 25 59 42.37 +11.13 +18.86 1997 35 90 38.89 +15.91 +17.68 1998 27 79 34.18 +3.23 +4.09 1999 25 72 34.72 +4.11 +5.71 2000 33 90 36.67 +6.42 +7.13 2001 31 72 43.06 +16.61 +23.07 2002 24 77 31.17 -4.86 -6.31 2003 31 70 44.29 +24.25 +34.64 2004 36 90 40.00 +25.02 +27.80 5 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
TOTAL 441 1280 34.45 +63.95 +5.00 The rules are…. a) Horse must have last raced less than 8 days ago b) Horse must be less than 4/1 starting price c) Only consider races longer than 12f in distance Results from 2004 06/01/04 SOA 4+H PHANTOM STOCK 2 0.67 08/01/04 SOA 4+(0- PADDY MUL 1 2.25 08/01/04 SOA 4+(0- KAGOSHIMA 2 3.5 08/01/04 SOA 4+(0- KYALAMI 4 3.5 09/01/04 WOA 4+BH PHANTOM STOCK 1 1.5 14/01/04 WOA 4+(0- IRELAND'S EYE 4 3 16/01/04 WOA 4+S VINCENT 1 1.38 21/01/04 LIA 4+S MYSTERIUM 4 3 27/01/04 SOA 4+H LAMPOS 2 1.5 31/01/04 LIA 4+N(0 FALL IN LINE 1 0.3 03/02/04 SOA 4+BH ALTITUDE DANCER 2 1.88 05/02/04 SOA 4+H ALTITUDE DANCER 1 2.25 06/02/04 WOA 4+SH THE LAST MOHICAN 2 2.5 12/02/04 SOA 4+H REFLEX BLUE 4 1.75 19/02/04 SOA 4+H BOX BUILDER 2 3 02/03/04 LIA 4+I RADIANT BRIDE 1 3 08/03/04 WOA 4+(0- BUZ KIRI 2 2.25 08/03/04 WOA 4+(0- RADIANT BRIDE 4 2 13/03/04 WOA 4+H PHANTOM STOCK 7 2.5 14/03/04 SOA 4+(0- STRAVMOUR 1 3.33 16/03/04 SOA 4+I(0 ORINOCOVSKY 2 3.33 17/03/04 WOA 4+H AVEIRO 1 1.88 30/03/04 SOA 4+(0- MONSAL DALE 7 3 02/04/04 SOA 4+H FFIFFIFFER 10 3.5 10/04/04 HAY 4+H BENBYAS 1 3.5 23/04/04 WAR 4+(0- MERCURIOUS 5 1.25 6 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
29/04/04 LIA 3+(0- LEOPHIN DANCER 3 3.5 29/04/04 LIA 3+(0- SERAPH 9 3.33 02/05/04 SAL 4+H SENTRY 3 3.33 07/05/04 CHE 4+G3 SYSTEMATIC 1 2.5 07/05/04 NOT 3H BILL BENNETT 2 1.75 15/05/04 SOA 4+H MADIBA 2 2.75 20/05/04 GOO 4+H COLD TURKEY 4 2.75 26/05/04 RIP 4+H RED SUN 2 1.88 02/06/04 NOT 3+H MY LEGAL EAGLE 1 3 03/06/04 HAM 4+H PARTY PLOY 1 3.5 03/06/04 HAM 4+H TRUSTED MOLE 6 3.5 03/06/04 CHP 3+H QUEDEX 5 2.75 04/06/04 WOA 4+I ROMIL STAR 1 0.83 04/06/04 WOA 4+I AVEIRO 5 1.38 13/06/04 SAL 3H TUDOR BELL 2 3.33 16/06/04 HAM 4+AH MILLENNIUM HALL 1 2.5 18/06/04 AYR 3+AMH MERRYMAKER 1 2.75 19/06/04 WAR 3+H MOONSHINE BEACH 4 3.33 20/06/04 WAR 3+H BAKIRI 4 3.5 24/06/04 HAM 3+DH INCHNADAMPH 1 3 24/06/04 HAM 3+DH LATALOMNE 4 2 26/06/04 DON 4+H GLORY QUEST 1 3.5 02/07/04 WAR 4+BH TRUSTED MOLE 8 2.5 02/07/04 HAY 3H DUNLEA DANCER 6 2.5 08/07/04 FOL 4+H TOM BELL 4 3 08/07/04 WAR 4+H RED RIVER REBEL 2 2.25 08/07/04 WAR 3+H MOONSHINE BEACH 1 2.75 08/07/04 WAR 3+H DARN GOOD 2 2.5 09/07/04 SOA 4+H THE KELT 9 1.63 10/07/04 HAM 3+H ELLWAY HEIGHTS 5 3 11/07/04 HAY 3+H MAGIC COMBINATION 1 2.25 11/07/04 BAT 4+H MOONSHINE BEACH 1 2 12/07/04 SOA 4+H NEXT FLIGHT 6 3 14/07/04 LIN 3+H TUNGSTEN STRIKE 1 1.88 16/07/04 HAM 3+H ELUSIVE DREAM 1 0.44 7 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
24/07/04 NOT 4+SH BANNINGHAM BLAZE 1 3 29/07/04 CAR 4+AH VANDENBERGHE 3 3 01/08/04 CHE 4+H HIGH ACTION 1 1.25 04/08/04 NCL 3+H RIYADH 2 3.5 04/08/04 YAR 3+DH BOBSLEIGH 3 2.25 08/08/04 RED 3+H TONI ALCALA 5 3.5 12/08/04 SAL 3+H TILLA 2 2.5 19/08/04 YOR 3H LOST SOLDIER THREE 1 3 27/08/04 NMJ 3+H SENDINTANK 1 1.75 27/08/04 THI 3+H MASTER WELLS 1 3 28/08/04 GOO 3+L SWIFT TANGO 2 2.5 30/08/04 NCL 3+H SENDINTANK 1 0.5 06/09/04 WAR 3+AH OOPS 4 3.5 06/09/04 WAR 3+AH SALUT SAINT CLOUD 8 1.63 06/09/04 NCL 3+H TRILEMMA 1 0.57 13/09/04 RED 3+H INCHPAST 1 1.75 13/09/04 EDI 3+H SHARADI 1 2 16/09/04 PON 3+ CORRIB ECLIPSE 1 1.5 29/09/04 SAL 3+H NAWOW 7 2.75 30/09/04 GOO 3+H DARN GOOD 4 2.5 02/10/04 NMR 3H QUARRYMOUNT 1 3.5 04/10/04 PON 3+H RESTART(I) 12 3.5 16/10/04 CAT 3+N(0 SNOW'S RIDE 2 3.5 06/11/04 DON 3+H SENDINTANK 1 0.91 12/11/04 WOA 3+BH ROMIL STAR 3 3.5 17/11/04 SOA 3+H MADIBA 1 3.5 10/12/04 WOA 3+H KING FLYER 6 3 13/12/04 WOA 3+H GARDEN SOCIETY 1 2.5 14/12/04 SOA 3+H MAGIC RED 3 0.91
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