Iran nuclear deal: Will it sink Mideast peace efforts?

Israeli-Arab peace negotiations conducted by the U.S. presidential administration of Donald Trump achieved some remarkable results. In listing a number of his successes, the Investor’s Business Daily editorial board noted that “thanks almost entirely to Trump’s efforts under the ‘Abraham Accords,’ Israel has normalized diplomatic ties with four Arab League members: Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco. Jordan and Egypt already have ties.

“Terrorist sponsor Iran, meanwhile, has never been more isolated and on the defensive than it is now, thanks to Trump’s pulling out of President Barack Obama’s phony ‘nuclear deal’ with Tehran’s mullahs [“phony” in the sense of still allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons while accessing immense funding, placing America and Israel under grave threat]. And while the terrorist group ISIS still exists, it has effectively been neutered, a shell of its former self, pushed out of nearly all its strongholds in Syria and Iraq” (Issues & Insights, Jan. 21, 2021). ISIS did manage its deadliest suicide bombing in three years in Baghdad just as the new U.S. president, Joe Biden, took office (Reuters, Jan. 21), but it remains a shadow of what it was.

The 2015 nuclear deal had “put curbs on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the easing of crippling economic sanctions. Israel strongly opposed the deal, saying it did not include sufficient safeguards to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. It welcomed the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the agreement in 2018”—and it has warned Biden against rejoining the former deal even with some changes, as he has said he would seek to do with certain conditions (Associated Press, Jan. 26, 2021).

On Jan. 31, Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged to NBC News it could be only “a matter of weeks” before Iran has sufficient fissile material to produce a nuclear weapon, echoing reports from Israel. The previous week “Israel’s chief of staff met with U.S. Central Command leaders and warned that Israel was preparing operational plans for dealing with Iran’s nuclear enrichment program . . . Attempting to stop Iran, however, would entail an extremely high-risk operation—even if the U.S. were on board” (Geopolitical Futures, Feb. 1).

It should be realized that the Trump administration’s strong stance of “maximum pressure” against the Iranian government and its nuclear program was a major factor in drawing Arab countries to seek and build up ties with Israel. These Arab countries, which are predominantly Sunni Muslim, do not want to see a rival nucleararmed Shiite Muslim Iran dominating the region. If the United States fails to keep Iranian power from expanding—especially in term of nuclear weapons—the peace ties achieved could fall apart, and others who were ready to join in the accords may decide to refrain.

A Heritage Foundation posting of a commentary that originally appeared in The Washington Times gave these key takeaways: “1. If America rejoined the Iran deal as is, Iran would not be held accountable for past cheating and blatant violations of the deal. 2. The process of normalization between the Arab nations and Israel, without the guarantor of U.S. engagement and support in pushing back against Iran, could well die. 3. The Arab nations will likely start hedging against the declining influence of Washington. They will increasingly look to cut deals with China and Russia” (James Carafano and Adam Milstein, “Why Going Back to Iran Nuclear Deal Is Folly,” Jan. 6, 2021).

For a fuller perspective of the underlying problems in the Middle East and where things are eventually headed, be sure to read our free study guide The Middle East in Bible Prophecy (available at ucg.org/booklets).