MU’S FRANKLIN SAYS POLLING IS NOT ‘BROKEN AS A METHODOLOGY

FEATURE

MU’s Franklin says polling is not the support what they’re doing and that’s ‘broken as a methodology’ missing from polls comes annoying in the polling industry. We generally share our methods from a group relatively openly,” Franklin said. Arthur Thomas, staff writer of voters who He acknowledged Trafalgar are quite had managed to reach Trump IN ITS FINAL polling average of compounded by the fact that the motivated supporters, but also said it was imWisconsin before the election, the poll’s other major miss came in the to vote for portant to look at the firm’s entire website FiveThirtyEight gave Pres- 2016 presidential election. That Trump and Charles Franklin record. Its final polls had Trump ident-elect Joe Biden a 52.1% to year, the poll gave Hillary Clinton have a deep up 2 points in Pennsylvania and 3 43.7% lead over President Donald a 6-point lead heading into the distrust of the nation’s institutions, points in Michigan. As of Nov. 16, Trump. election only to see Trump win by including polls and many of them Biden was leading those states by

The unofficial results follow- 0.7 points. decline to participate. 1.0 and 2.6 points, respectively. ing Election Day showed a much “I think that the bottom line Franklin said his conversations Despite misses in two straight tighter race in Wisconsin. Biden is that for the second (presiden- with Democratic and Republican presidential elections, the Marled Trump 49.6% to 48.9%. A little tial) election in a row, polling did pollsters suggest their internal quette poll did perform well in more than 20,000 votes separated have substantial misses, but this polling was off too. 2018. It showed a 47-47 tie between the two candidates. time, the misses were across the “One of the big things about Tony Evers and Scott Walker. Evers

“The elephant in the room is country, whereas in 2016 they were this is that we’ve missed these won by 1.1 percentage points. The the polling outcomes,” Charles more focused here in the Mid- people despite looking for them,” poll also had an 11-point lead for Franklin told a monthly meeting of west,” Franklin said. Franklin said. “It’s not that polling Democrat Tammy Baldwin, who the Greater Milwaukee Committee “What we still see is a persistent took place this year completely ig- ended up beating Republican Leah almost a week after the election. understatement of the support for noring the possibility that we were Vukmir by 10.9 points.

Franklin, director of the Mar- President Trump,” he added. missing people, but that as we “That’s why I don’t think quette University Law School poll, In both 2016 and 2020, the poll tried to locate them, tried to find polling is broken as a methodolsaid by his estimates, state polling was fairly close to the Democratic indicators that we were missing ogy, but it sure does look like we averages around the country were candidate’s vote share, but under- them, by and large we didn’t see have a big problem of reaching, off by around 6 percentage points, estimated Trump by 7.2 and 3.9 those indicators.” whether we want to think of them although he noted that could points, respectively. Franklin was asked during the as President Trump supportchange as vote totals are finalized. Mike Gousha, a distinguished meeting to comment on Trafalgar ers specifically or this group of

The miss was even worse in fellow in law and public policy at Group’s polling, which showed people within that realm that are Wisconsin. Franklin estimated it Marquette Law School, joined the Wisconsin race as even in its … sort of low-propensity voters at 9 points while FiveThirtyEight’s Franklin for the GMC meeting and final poll. but very dedicated to President average was off 7.7 points. said his conversations with Dem- “Trafalgar is, forgive me, not Trump,” Franklin said. n

By comparison, Franklin’s ocratic strategists suggest that very transparent about exactly Marquette poll performed better. Its last release estimated a 50-45 lead for Biden after accounting for Marquette Law School poll track recordundecided voters leaning toward a candidate and allocating those Race Marquette Poll Actual Poll versus Democratic Poll versus GOP Vote who wouldn’t say based on their favorability views of each candi- 2012 Governor Recall R+7 R+6.8 -1.3 -1.1 date.

Franklin noted that there 2012 Presidential D+8 D+6.9 -1.8 -2.9 was some amount of bifurcation in Wisconsin polls with a group 2012 Senate D+4 D+5.5 -4.4 -2.9 consistently in the 8- to 11-point Biden lead range while Marquette 2014 Governor R+7 R+5.7 -3.6 -2.3 was consistently around a 5-point Biden lead. 2016 Presidential D+6 R+0.7 -0.5 -7.2

“Exactly why there was that gap between our polling and 2016 Senate D+1 R+3.4 -1.8 -6.2 theirs, and what accounts for that, we don’t know yet,” Franklin said, 2018 Governor Even D+1.1 -2.5 -1.4 adding that it is something for those other pollsters to address. 2018 Senate D+11 D+10.9 -1.4 -1.5

But the 4.3-point miss stands out in what is generally a strong 2020 Presidential D+5 D+0.7 -0.4 -3.9 record for the Marquette poll since it started in 2012. The problem is Source: MU Law poll, Wisconsin Election Commission, AP unofficial results