ECONOMY Joe Galvin

Stimulus hangover crashes CEO confidence

IT’S HARD TO THINK of the COVID-19 pandemic as “the good old days.”

But from a purely economic standpoint, once the lockdowns passed and vaccines kicked in, it was. Now, however, the accelerated disruption of the pandemic has led to compressed volatility in the economy. A hangover effect has hit CEOs.

Vistage’s Q2 2022 CEO Confidence Index fell to 69.0, a 15-point drop from Q1 2022 and a whopping 39.8-point drop below Q1 2021 (the index’s highest reading since 2005).

When asked to describe their biggest business challenges, hiring/retention, inflation and supply chain topped the lists of the more than 1,500 small and midsized business CEOs that Vistage surveyed from across the U.S.

HIRING/RETENTION THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE

Despite gloomy economic data and widespread recession fears, hiring and retention remain the top business challenge. Of the 86 Wisconsin CEOs surveyed in the Q2 2022 Vistage CEO Confidence Index, 43% expect to hire more employees in the year ahead, and 48% noted they’ve already hired more workers in the first half of this year. 52% expect the number of employees to remain the same, as leaders work to keep their hard-earned talent on staff.

The talent wars are persisting, just a little less fiercely. 65% of Wisconsin CEOs say hiring challenges are impacting their ability to operate at full capacity. As a result, 79% have boosted wages, 80% are investing in employee development and 67% are allowing remote work options.

Regardless of how the economy swings, hiring and retention will remain a top concern. The “Great Resignation” has become the “Big Upgrade” as workers across the board seek an improved work experience. While the feverish pace of hiring will slow, the significance of employee retention will only grow because the workforce has options.

INFLATION EATS AWAY AT CEOS’ CONFIDENCE

Inflation has steadily risen from zero in June of 2020 to today’s 9.1%. Once again, the accelerated disruption of the pandemic results in compressed volatility. Of Wisconsin CEOs surveyed, 93% cited increased wages and compensation as the top driver of rising costs. Close behind: higher prices from vendors (86%), higher energy prices (74%) and higher cost for goods and materials (81%). The result is the rising cost of everything, from an “added fuel surcharge” on bills to skyrocketing prices at the grocery store. 85% of Wisconsin CEOs surveyed will raise prices again in the year ahead.

The hangover from the massive stimulus of money pumped into the economy during the pandemic has not yet run its full course. But over time, demand will slow just as supply catches up. Increased costs to attract and retain talent and volatility of crude oil supply and price will continue to stoke inflation.

SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES PERSIST

Availability of components/raw materials, slow deliveries and transportation issues are the key drivers behind supply chain business challenges, all of which contribute to inflation as costs rise across the supply chain. While far from the rhythm of a predictable pre-pandemic world, the supply chain is slowly healing, according to 51% of Wisconsin CEOs. But 28% still see it getting worse.

The improving supply chain still has a lot of work to re-establish consistency and confidence. Recent lockdowns in China and the disruption of manufacturing and transportation will send more ripples of volatility through the system. Slowing demand will relieve some of the pressure as global demand steadies and global economies slow. Continued improvement will reduce some of the inflationary pressure driven by the supply/demand continuum.

The disruption accelerated by the pandemic has taken us from the good old days to a rapidly shifting, unpredictable, post-pandemic environment. We’ve entered a new reality where the bar for expected economic activity must be reset.

The business classic “Who Moved My Cheese?” tells the story of two mice. One keeps looking for the cheese in its usual spot. The other realizes the cheese is gone and looks elsewhere.

In today’s business world, the cheese has moved. CEOs would do well to follow the core message of the book: Adapt quickly or be left behind. n

JOE GALVIN

Joe Galvin is chief research officer for Vistage Worldwide and can be reached at research@vistage.com. For more reports and insights, or to connect with a Vistage chair, visit vistage.com/research-center.

BIZ PEOPLE Advertising Section: New Hires, Promotions and Board Appointments

BANKING

Chase names new Executive Director, Treasury Sales Management Officer

Chase is pleased to announce the hiring of Heather Miller who has joined the Midwest Treasury Sales team as Executive Director, Treasury Management Sales Officer covering the Wisconsin market. She will work with clients and prospects across the state, including Southeast Wisconsin/ Milwaukee, Fox Valley and Madison areas.

Heather has 19 years of banking experience with roles in credit and banking before moving into treasury for the last 14 years. She holds a BSBA in Accounting from Central Michigan University.

BANKING

Greenwoods State Bank announces addition of Senior Vice President

Wendy Sowinski

Wendy Sowinski recently joined Greenwoods State Bank and will serve as Senior Vice President, Director of Commercial and Industrial Lending. With over twenty years of banking experience, Wendy is looking forward to leading efforts to provide Southeastern Wisconsin companies with access to capital through a full suite of commercial loan products and related treasury services. Contact Wendy for your commercial lending needs today by calling 262-719-5231.

EDUCATION

Vincent Lyles

Brings Expertise to MyPath Board of Directors

MyPath, a provider of specialized education and support services for high-need individuals, announced that Vincent Lyles has been named to its Board of Directors. Vincent Lyles is currently System Vice President of Community Relations at Advocate Aurora Health. He previously served as the President and CEO of Boys & Girls Clubs of Greater Milwaukee. Lyles received a certificate in nonprofit management & leadership from Harvard Business School and served on the boards of organizations including Marquette University, BMO Funds, Badger Mutual Insurance, Near West Side Partners and more.

NONPROFIT

Siebert Lutheran Foundation names Sarah Gilday as Director of Philanthropy Sarah Gilday will lead the Siebert Serves initiative launched in 2019 to help Christians maximize their life’s impact through customized philanthropy management services. Gilday has worked in the nonprofit sector for over 20 years. Most recently, as Executive Director of the Adult Literacy Center of Ozaukee County and Chief Development Officer at Sojourner Family Peace Center. “We are excited to welcome Sarah to Siebert,” said Charlotte John-Gomez, President. “Sarah is the ideal person to help Siebert and donors maximize our collective philanthropic impact in the Lutheran community.”

HUMAN RESOURCES

Jay D. Rosencrantz

named Chief Strategy Officer for Pappas DeLaney Rosencrantz has been named Chief Strategy Officer for Pappas DeLaney, an executive search, talent development and coaching firm based in the Milwaukee area. Rosencrantz has more than 30 years of experience and joined the firm in 2013. He was previously Managing Director at Pappas DeLaney. Prior to joining Pappas DeLaney, he held senior leadership positions with M Group Holdings and Right Management. Pappas DeLaney works nationally with medium to large businesses and corporations in virtually every market segment, including food and beverage, professional services, manufacturing and healthcare.

HUMAN RESOURCES

Heather Forston

Alberti Named CEO of Pappas DeLaney Heather Forston Alberti has been named CEO of Pappas DeLaney, an executive search, talent development and coaching firm. The past few years, Pappas DeLaney has been on an accelerated growth trajectory, expanding into new markets and industry segments. Working with the executive team, Alberti will manage the implementation of a bold vision to propel the firm into its next growth phase. Alberti has more than 25 years of industry experience and has been with Pappas DeLaney since 1999. Pappas DeLaney works nationally with medium to large businesses and corporations in virtually every market segment.

BANKING

North Shore Bank names Michael Murphy as new VP of Consumer Lending North Shore Bank today announced the promotion of Michael Murphy to VP of consumer lending. Murphy has been in the banking industry for over 25 years, serving most recently as assistant vice president, regional sales manager at North Shore Bank.

NONPROFIT

Siebert Lutheran Foundation promotes Kalyani Grasso to Director of Communications

Along with serving as Program Officer, Kalyani Grasso now leads the foundation’s communication strategies while promoting Siebert Serves— an initiative that maximizes donor impact through customized philanthropy services and innovative strategies.

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Waukesha State Bank hires Commercial Banking Officer Waukesha State Bank has hired Erik Doucette as commercial banking officer. In this role, Erik will be responsible for prospecting, developing and managing commercial loan portfolios. He has 30 years of broad financial experience.

NONPROFIT

Siebert Lutheran Foundation promotes Michelle Burmeister to Program Director In this new role, Michelle Burmeister will lead the Siebert Lutheran Foundation’s grantmaking strategies, goals, and activities. She will also foster collaborations & facilitate knowledge sharing to bring more resources to Siebert’s grantee partners.

LEGAL SERVICES

Ryan T. Duffy joins von Briesen & Roper, s.c. Ryan T. Duffy joined the Milwaukee office of von Briesen & Roper, s.c. Duffy focuses his practice on litigation, collections and community association law. He received a J.D. and B.A. from Marquette University.

LEGAL SERVICES

Trace P. Hummel

has been promoted to Shareholder at von Briesen & Roper, s.c. Hummel focuses his practice on commercial and contract litigation, including lease disputes, boundary disputes, water litigation, and construction defects. He also works with residential and commercial real estate owners on real estate projects.

MANUFACTURING

Tom Marry named President of Charter Steel

Tom Marry has been named President of Charter Steel, a leading provider of quality wire rod and special bar quality (SBQ) products with operations in Wisconsin and Ohio. In this role, he will be responsible for continuing Charter Steel’s growth.

LEGAL SERVICES

Ryan P. Heiden has been promoted to Shareholder at von Briesen & Roper, s.c. Ryan P. Heiden is a member of the Government Law Group in the Milwaukee office. He focuses his practice on school law and public sector labor and employment including pupil issues, expulsions, Open Meetings and Public Records Laws.

LEGAL SERVICES

Derek J. Water-

street has been promoted to Shareholder at von Briesen & Roper, s.c.

He focuses his practice on commercial, real estate and construction related litigation matters, including contract and general business/partnership disputes, landlord-tenant matters, residential and commercial construction and environmental issues.

TECHNOLOGY

Zach Deprey

promoted to VP of Technical Operations.

Deprey has been promoted to VP of Technical Operations for Source One Technology. Deprey, who joined the Brookfield-based IT Services firm as a Network Engineer in 2016, will lead a growing team of Senior Network Engineers serving Wisconsin.

GET THE WORD OUT!

News? Awards? Press Releases?

Show them off in BizTimes’ new BizUpdates section. Submit your company news at biztimes.com/bizconnect

BIZ UPDATE

CREATIVE BUSINESS INTERIORS NAMED MILLERKNOLL CERTIFIED DEALER

As of June 1, Creative Business Interiors is officially a MillerKnoll authorized dealer. The design build furnish firm now represents the two most iconic brands in commercial furniture design: Herman Miller and Knoll. This historic merger enables Creative Business Interiors to deliver curated interior solutions through their comprehensive services and expanded product line. MillerKnoll, one of the largest commercial furniture design companies in the world, is positioned to catalyze the transformation of the industry. Guided by a shared vision and a steadfast commitment to design, MillerKnoll innovates and designs for the future while contributing to a more equitable and sustainable environment for all. At Creative Business Interiors, our Experts at Work provide skilled services in interior design, construction, painting, commercial furnishings, and facility maintenance. Now in partnership with MillerKnoll, we provide a deeper offering of brands, technology, and innovation for clients.