Excerpt On The Housing Market From “Summer Of The Speed Buyer”

By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist For The National Association Of Realtors – Nar Magazine July/August 2021 Issue

“Could it all crash as happened from 2008 to 2010? Not likely. The current housing cycle is fundamentally different. We thankfully don’t have risky subprime mortgages that overstretched buyers’ budgets. The gatekeepers at banks, mortgage brokers, and government regulators demand that loan-to- value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and income documentation meet guidelines before a mortgage is approved. To be sure, even with soundly written mortgages, we know some defaults can occur. A second major difference is supply. Leading up to the housing bubble heyday, builders overbuilt. By my calculations, America had 2.1 million surplus housing units by 2006. Following the crash, underproduction steadily chipped away at the surplus, such that inventory normalized by 2011. Continuing under production led to the housing shortage. By 2015, the shortfall was 2 million homes. By the end of 2020, it totaled 4.8 million homes. The lack of inventory is why home prices are in no danger of falling sharply. Homebuilding activity in 2021 will be slightly above historical norms. But it will take at least a few years to correct the massive shortage. In the meantime, we expect the national median home price to rise 9% this year and another 3% in 2022.”

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